NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, April 27th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowldge
Toronto shot 57.7% from floor in Monday’s 118-93 Game 5 win; Raptors won last two series games, by 11-25 points- only one of the five games has been decided by less than 11 points. Toronto was 12-27 on arc last game, after going 11-48 in Games 3-4 in Milwaukee. Raptors won three of last five games in Milwaukee; all five games stayed under total. Under is 7-2-1 in Bucks’ last ten games overall, 8-6 in Toronto’s last 14. Toronto won seven of its last nine games overall; they covered four of last five on road. Bucks split their last six home games overall.
Home side won all five Memphis-San Antonio games in this series, last nine meetings overall; Spurs lost last four games here, with three of four losses by 8+ points. Memphis shot 50.6%/46.3%/51.4% in last three games, after making less than half their shots in Games 1-2- they’ve also taken only one less FT than the Spurs in three games since Fizdale’s tirade after Game 2, when SA had 32-15 edge on line. Six of Spurs’ last seven games went over total; they lost last four road games. San Antonio’s last road win was April 7 in Dallas.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Western Conference First Round
No. 2 San Antonio at No. 7 Memphis
FedEx Forum has been wonderful to the Grizzlies thus far in the series, producing both victories and offering up a legitimate shot to stay alive here. Despite a 116-103 loss in San Antonio on Tuesday, head coach David Fizdale felt correctable defensive miscues contributed to their demise so he's expecting his team to be sharper here.
The Grizzlies held the Spurs to their lowest point total of the series in Game 3 and then survived a 43-point night from Kawhi Leonard last Saturday night when Marc Gasol drained an awkward buzzer-beater at the end of OT, evening things up 2-2 in unlikely fashion.
Memphis hung around in San Antonio for the better part of the first half in Game 5 and has proven capable of making the Spurs work for everything they get. The Griz got within 102-97 with 4:51 remaining before the Spurs broke off 13 consecutive points to put the game away.
The home team has won all nine meetings. Patty Mills, Danny Green and Manu Ginobili combined to shoot 4-for-21 in Game 4, which included a 1-for-14 effort from 3-point range. They rebounded to score 33 points on 12-for-19 shooting at the AT&T Center in Game 5, making seven of 11 3-pointers.
If the Spurs get those type of contributions from those guards to deflect some of the pressure off Tony Parker, they're going to be nearly impossible to beat since the Griz continue to be shorthanded there. Tony Allen, who held Leonard to 39 percent shooting over three regular-season meetings, will miss his sixth game due to a leg injury.
Mike Conley shot just 40 percent against the Spurs during the regular season, averaging 18 points per game, and he scored just 13 points in a blowout loss in Game 1. Since that night, he's averaged 27.3 points and 7.5 assists, shooting 53.5 percent and 12-for-25 from 3-point range. He'll have to be the driving force for the Griz, who have defended their home court all four times the Spurs have come to town in 2017.
Leonard will match Tim Duncan's team record of 26 consecutive playoff games scoring in double-digits here and has been dominant all series, coming off a 28-point game that dropped his postseason scoring average to 31.6. He's shot nearly 58 percent from the field and has made 12 of his last 19 3-pointers, continuing to dominate at both ends.
Popovich has won just one of his last four elimination games since winning the 2013-14 title, putting away the Grizzlies last April to wrap up a sweep. The Thunder and Clippers have each dealt these Spurs tough losses over the last two postseasons, so it will be interesting to see how they fare as a road favorite here.
The under prevailed in seven of nine prior to the start of this series but is just 1-4, coming in only in Game 2. Despite this, the total has been set at 190, basically right where the books set it for Game 1. The Spurs have won three of four playoff series against Memphis, sweeping twice. They won 4-0 in the first round last year. The Griz pulled off a memorable upset in the first round back in 2011, beating top-seeded San Antonio in six games as the No. 8.
Eastern Conference First Round
No. 3 Toronto at No. 6 Milwaukee
For the first time this postseason, Milwaukee will open a game trailing in a series. Since it's a win-or-go-home situation, they're going to have to handle the added pressure well or they'll end their most successful season since 2010 in front of a disappointed home crowd.
The Raptors became the first team in the series to win consecutive games in rallying from a 2-1 deficit, thriving once head coach Dwane Casey decided to go small and insert Norman Powell into the starting five for center Jonas Valanciunas. Toronto won in its last trip into town, taking Game 4 87-76 last Saturday before dominating 118-93 on Monday back home at the Air Canada Centre.
The Raps are fighting a bit of history since they've never won three straight playoff games and have never had much success this deep into the postseason, so they could make a little history tonight. After winning their first Game 6 in franchise history back in 2001, avoiding elimination against eventual Eastern Conference champion Philadelphia, they've since lost every Game 6 they've played since. The run has reached five in a row entering this game. Casey has dropped four of those games, including all three Toronto played last season in series against the Pacers, Heat and Cavs.
The Bucks were eliminated in six games the last time they reached the playoffs back in 2015 and haven't won a Game 6 since defeating that same Allen Iverson-led 76ers team back in '01 before getting blown out in Philly with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. Milwaukee is 0-3 in Game 6s since but opened as a slight favorite despite a 36-point deficit over its last two games.
All three of their most recent Game 6 losses have come at the Bradley Center and all came by double-digits. Current head coach Jason Kidd led the Nets to a 114-101 win back in '03 on the way to reaching the NBA Finals, while the two setbacks this decade have come by scores of 83-69 and 120-66. Kidd was at the helm for the 54-point loss, which featured Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton in major roles. Outside of ring owners Jason Terry and Matthew Dellavedova, there are few positive experiences to draw upon among this group.
"We're lacking the experience of what's coming," Kidd said. "We can talk about it, but we have to go through that process, we have to walk through that door. For a lot of these guys, they've never seen this."
Powell has been the x-factor in this series despite barely playing in Game 1 and not getting off the bench at all in the second game. He scored 12 points in 15 minutes of a Toronto's 104-77 loss in Milwaukee and found himself in the starting lineup for the next game, sparking his team with his energy and an ability to create off the dribble. He shot 32 percent from 3-point range during the regular season but has gone 7-for-7 over the last two games. Kyle Lowry has largely struggled, while DeMar DeRozan has been streaky, but Powell's emergence has taken the pressure off everyone. Serge Ibaka, who was forcing shots in Game 4, went 8-for-10 on Tuesday. Powell has given the Raptors a much better rhythm that the Bucks must find a way to disrupt.
Giannis Antetokounmpo made 12 of his 18 shots in Game 5, but despite the Bucks shooting over 50 percent, they couldn't stop the Raptors at all. Toronto shot 57.7 percent and hit 12 3-pointers, so we'll see what adjustment Kidd has in store to try and slow Toronto down. Middleton skipped practice on Wednesday with an illness but should play. Kidd could turn to Greg Monroe as a starter to try and take advantage of the Raps in the halfcourt or could remove Tony Snell or Malcolm Brogdon and start Dellavedova just to offer a different look out of the gate.
The under is 3-2 in this series. Only one of the five games has been decided by single-digits as each team has posted two blowouts.
Thursday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5, 195)
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (54-33 SU, 47-39-1 ATS, 46-41 O/U): The Toronto Raptors have discovered another solid scoring option to go along with stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, and with it they are on the verge of advancing in the playoffs. The Raptors will try to continue to ride the hot hand of Norman Powell when they visit the Milwaukee Bucks for a potential series-clinching Game 6 on Thursday. Powell saw just 21 minutes of action through the first three games (two appearances) of the series as Toronto dug itself a 2-1 hole, but he was inserted into the starting lineup and made all three of his 3-pointers in a Game 4 win and then erupted Monday night at home to help the Raptors seize a 3-2 series advantage. DeRozan has been up and down in the series, especially at Milwaukee, where he went 0-for-8 from the floor in Game 3 before shooting 12-for-22 in Game 4. After a rough outing in the opener of the series, Lowry has been a bit more consistent, making exactly two 3-pointers in each of the last four contests while averaging 17.3 points and 5.3 assists. Forward Serge Ibaka was 13-for-39 from the field over a three-game span before scoring 19 points on 8-of-10 in Game 5.
ABOUT THE BUCKS (44-43 SU, 39-48 ATS, 43-42-2 O/U): Milwaukee is looking to overcome a recent history of embarrassing Game 6 failures at home, which includes a 120-66 loss to Chicago in 2014 and an 83-69 setback against Atlanta in 2010. "They bounced back after Game 3, and that's what we're going to try to do," forward Giannis Antetokounmpo told reporters. "It's a learning process for us. We've got to do a better job." Antetokounmpo had 30 points and nine rebounds Monday night, while his teammates combined to grab only 14 boards, contributing to being out-rebounded by 17 on the glass.
LINE HISTORY: The Bucks opened at -1.5 favorites at home for Game 6 with their back against the wall. The total hit the board at 194 and quickly jumped slightly up to 195.
INJURY REPORT:
Raptors - PG K. Lowry (Probable, back).
Bucks - SG K. Middleton (Probable, illness), PF J. Parker (Out For Season, knee).
TRENDS:
* Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Under is 8-1 in Raptors last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 8-2-1 in Bucks last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies (+4, 190)
ABOUT THE SPURS (64-23 SU, 44-41-2 ATS, 47-38-2 O/U): The Spurs breezed to double-digit victories in each of their three home games but are 0-4 in as many games in Memphis including the regular season and dropped a 110-108 overtime heartbreaker the last time they visited in Game 4. San Antonio should feel more confident in Game 6 after getting star small forward Kawhi Leonard some scoring support off the bench in Game 5 from Patty Mills and Manu Ginobili, who combined for 30 points on 11-of-16 shooting. Ginobili is a four-time NBA champion and averaged 14.7 points in 198 career playoff games prior to this postseason but went scoreless on a combined 0-of-15 shooting in the first four games of the series before breaking out for 10 points on 4-of-6 in Game 5. The 39-year-old added three assists, three steals and a blocked shot in 18 minutes. "It really is inspiring when you see him dive on the ball, putting his body on the line, hard drives, hard cuts," Mills told reporters of Ginobili. "It gets us all going. We shouldn't need that to get going, but he's a hell of a player, hell of a competitor. It trickles down, and we feed on it for sure."
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (45-42 SU, 43-44 ATS, 42-42-3 O/U): Homecourt advantage held for each of the first five games of the series, and the Memphis Grizzlies are hoping to keep it that way for just one more game. Memphis allowed the Spurs to shoot 52.5 percent from the floor, including 14-of-28 from 3-point range, in Game 5 after holding them to 42.3 percent in the Game 4 win at home. "We were definitely sharper with our defensive execution at home, no doubt about it," Fizdale told reporters after Game 5. "It was night and day actually. I think all of our guys can own that, and that is the good part about them. They know their baskets came off of breakdowns. Obviously, it is hard enough to guard the talent when you don’t mess up. Like I said, we have got a group of guys who are very hungry to get back home, try to get a win, and find our way back here for Game 7." The Grizzlies are leaning heavily on point guard Mike Conley on the offensive end, and he is delivering an average of 27.3 points on 53.5 percent shooting over the last four games.
LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened the betting for this Game 6 showdown as 4.5-point road favorites and that number has come down slightly to 4. The total opened at 190 and has yet to move.
INJURY REPORT:
Spurs - No injuries to report.
Grizzlies - SG T. Allen (Out Indefinitely, calf), SF C. Parsons (Out For Season, knee).
TRENDS:
* Spurs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
* Over is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 vs. Western Conference.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.