NBA Knowledge
Hot teams
-- Toronto won three of its last four games (10-6AU).
-- Hawks won five of their last seven games (5-8 last 13HF).
-- Miami won six of its last nine games (5-3 last 8HF).
-- Spurs won eight of their last ten games (0-3AU).
Cold teams
-- Chicago lost six of its last nine games (5-1 last 6AU).
-- Suns lost their last seven games (6-4 last 10AU).
-- Houston lost six of its last nine games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four games (5-2 last 7AU).
-- Sacramento is 4-5 in its last nine games (6-4 last 10HF).
-- Warriors lost two of last three home games (1-5 last 6HF).
Series records
-- Raptors won their last four games with Atlanta.
-- Miami won four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Rockets won seven of last eight games with Phoenix.
-- Minnesota won its last three games with Sacramento.
-- Spurs won eight of last ten games with Golden State.
Totals
-- Four of last five Toronto-Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Chicago-Miami games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Phoenix games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Sacramento games went over total.
-- Eight of last ten San Antonio-Golden State games stayed under.
Back/backs
-- Houston is 2-9 in its last 11 games if they played the night before.
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Antonio at Golden State
The top two teams in the NBA will lock horns Thursday night when the San Antonio Spurs visit the Golden State Warriors. There isn't a lot of motivation for the Spurs (65-12 SU, 43-34 ATS) in this matchup, but the Warriors (69-9 SU, 42-34-2 ATS) are still trying to break the regular-season record of 72 wins set by the 1995-1996 Chicago Bulls.
These two teams have split a pair of games straight up and against the spread this year, with the home team winning both times. However, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich didn't start Tim Duncan (17.2 PER) in either contest. There's every chance Popovich will sit Duncan again for the rubber match. San Antonio is cruising toward the playoffs in a lower gear at 5-1 SU and 1-5 ATS over the past six games.
The Warriors, meanwhile, have been struggling to meet market expectations during their Quest for 73. They're 7-3 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, starting with their 79-87 loss in San Antonio as 4.5-point road dogs. Turnovers have been a problem lately; the Dubs coughed up the ball 23 times in Tuesday's 117-124 overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Game of the Day: Spurs at Warriors
By Covers.com
San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (-7, 210)
The Golden State Warriors are looking very vulnerable lately and now need to win each of their four remaining games in order to break the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ record of 72 regular-season wins. The path to 73 will have to include two wins over the San Antonio Spurs, who visit the Warriors on Thursday.
Golden State lost to Boston on Friday to end an NBA-record 54-game home winning streak and fell again at home on Tuesday in overtime after blowing a 17-point lead against the Minnesota Timberwolves. "You have so much media attention and everybody talking about breaking the record and you lose focus a little bit," Warriors coach Steve Kerr, who was a member of the 95-96 Bulls, told reporters. "The same thing happened 20 years ago. (The Bulls) didn't play well down the stretch. This doesn't surprise me. It's easy to get lost in all this stuff. We haven't been very dialed in of late.” The Spurs are only 3 1/2 games behind Golden State in the standings and still have a shot at 70 victories if they win out. San Antonio scratched its way past Utah 88-86 to earn a fourth straight win on Tuesday and may have all of its starters available on Thursday.
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as five-point favorites at home but by Thursday morning that line had quickly jumped to -7. It's likely that the Spurs will rest their starters for most, or all, of tonight's showdown. The total opened at 210 and has been steady at that number. View complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Spurs - B. Diaw (Out Thursday, groin).
Warriors - SF K. Looney (Out Thursday, hip).
POWER RANKINGS: Spurs (-15.8) - Warriors (-14.6) + home court (-3) = Warriors -1.8
ABOUT THE SPURS (65-12, 43-34 ATS, 33-42-2 O/U): The assumption has been that San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich would rest starters in the two remaining games against the Warriors, but point guard Tony Parker refuted that notion in a postgame TV interview on Tuesday. “I think we'll play," Parker said in the interview. "Utah, I thought (Popovich) was going to rest everybody. But we played Utah, so I don't see any reason we're not playing Golden State.” That win over the Jazz marked the 1,000th career regular-season victory for Spurs center Tim Duncan, making him the third player in history (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1,074, and Robert Parish, 1,014) to reach the mark.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (69-9, 42-34-2 ATS, 43-34-1 O/U): Golden State bounced back from its last to the Celtics by cruising past the Portland Trail Blazers 136-111 on Sunday but had the same problems crop up against the Timberwolves on Tuesday that plagued it in other losses this season. “We’re trying to hit the home run, instead of just a bunch of singles,” Kerr told reporters after his team committed a season-high 24 turnovers. “…Bad coaching. Bad playing. Bad everything.” The letdown came despite the return of sixth man Andre Iguodala, who sat out the previous 13 games with a sprained ankle.
TRENDS:
* Spurs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.
* Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
* Under is 11-0 in Spurs last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 6-0 in Warriors last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The early action on this matchup is on the Warriors (56 percent) and the Over (58 percent).
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Betting on the last month of the Association is often a crapshoot and it can certainly be frustrating, especially if you’re placing wagers early. If you play the NBA on a regular basis, you already know this and seeing starters rest down the stretch has become routine. Going forward, you should “play with care” until Saturday Apr. 16 when the playoffs begin.
That’s when the All-Stars will be in action, something we didn’t see on the hardwood last night and that could be the case again Thursday when Golden State (69-9 straight up, 40-35-3 against the spread) and San Antonio (65-12 SU, 42-34-1 ATS) square off from Oracle Arena.
The Spurs have been known to rest starters more than any other team and they’ve benefited with plenty of championships, but it’s also hurt the game. Tony Mejia wrote a great piece on Gregg Popovich’s style and what we could expect over the last week and half of the season.
While the status of key players is up in the air for San Antonio, we do know that the Warriors will clinch the top spot in the West with a victory. No major sportsbooks sent an overnight number on this game but the three major offshore outfits opened Golden State as a six-point home favorite while the total is 210. This number has jumped as high as 7½ as of Friday morning.
Dating back to last season, the home team has won and covered the last four meetings in this series. Golden State earned a 120-90 win on Jan. 25 as a five-point favorite earlier this season while San Antonio avenged that loss on Mar. 19 with an 87-79 victory.
For our purposes, both the Spurs and Warriors have been great fades lately at the betting counter. San Antonio is 8-2 SU but 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games while Golden State is 7-3 SU and 3-7 ATS.
The Warriors have gone 37-2 SU at Oracle Arena but the two losses have come in the last six days and the most recent setback on Tuesday, a 124-117 overtime loss to Minnesota as 14 ½-point home favorites was embarrassing. Including those non-covers, Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games in the Bay Area.
The Spurs survived a scare on Tuesday by barely beating Utah 88-86 as a 3½-point road favorite and those close calls have been the norm lately for Pop’s squad. The club is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six as a visitor. Also, total players should note that San Antonio is on a 9-1 ‘under’ run in its last 10 road games. Only one opponents busted 100-plus during this run as Oklahoma City notched a 111-92 against the “B-Squad” of the Spurs.
The Thunder closed as a 12½-point favorite in that game and knowing that the Spurs might rest Thursday, placing an early wager on Golden State 6 to 7 points might be a good investment.
TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.
Along with this game, bettors have four more contests to follow on Thursday and below is my quick handicap.
Phoenix (20-58 SU, 33-45 ATS) at Houston (38-40 SU, 34-44 ATS)
After last night’s 88-86 loss at Dallas, the Rockets are now one-game behind Utah for the eighth seed in the Western Conference and two back of the Mavericks for the seventh spot. Fortunately for the Rockets, they close the season with four winnable games and three of them are at home.
Starting tonight, the Suns visit as 11½-point road underdogs and Houston has owned this series. The Rockets have won seven of their last eight meetings against the Suns, which includes a pair of wins this season, both coming on the road. Houston has gone 6-2 ATS during this span while the ‘over’ has posted a 6-2 mark.
Playing the fatigue factor could scare you away though since Houston has gone 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS on zero days rest this season, which includes an ugly 2-4 mark at home, both of those victories coming by a combined 10 points.
Toronto (52-25 SU, 41-35-1 ATS) at Atlanta (46-32 SU, 39-37-2 ATS)
Tough game to handicap here because Toronto has dominated Atlanta, winning and covering all three meetings this season and seven of the last eight encounters. The pair just met on Mar. 30 and Toronto captured a 105-97 victory as a one-point home favorite and the game wasn’t as close as the final score as the Raptors led by as many 24 points.
For this game, I have to question the desire for the Raptors. The club is all but locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and their final five games are completely meaningless, which makes me believe we’ll see a few players rested in these games.
On the other side of the court, Atlanta has a shot to win the No. 3 seed but could easily fall into the sixth spot. The Hawks haven’t been in great form lately, going 2-2 in their last four games and they’re 0-4 versus the number during this span.
Atlanta opened as a five-point favorite and that number is slowly creeping up, which tells me that early money is buying the rest factor for the Raptors.
Chicago (39-39 SU, 33-45 ATS) at Miami (45-32 SU, 40-36-1 ATS)
Similar to the Hawks, the Heat have already clinched a spot in the playoffs and they can also be as high as the third seed or as low as the sixth. Miami opened as a 5½-point home favorite over Chicago on Thursday and you could argue that number should be higher. The Heat have all three of their meetings against the Bulls this season and the last two wins have been blowouts (129-112, 118-96). The Heat could be without big man Hassan Whiteside (thigh) for tonight’s game.
Chicago has an outside shot to make the playoffs but it needs to win out and have either Indiana or Detroit falter down the stretch as well, something neither team did on Wednesday. If the Bulls do win this game, they face Cleveland next and the Cavaliers could be resting players since they’re just about to clinch the No. 1 seed. Chicago closes with New Orleans and Philadelphia, so a 4-0 finish is very possible but it starts with a win over the Heat. The Bulls were mired in a rough road stretch for quite some time but they have won three of their last four as visitors.
Total bettors could be scratching their heads on this game. The number opened 205 ½ at one offshore outfit and the Bulls enter this game on an 8-0 run to the ‘under’ and Miami comes into Thursday’s matchup with a 5-1 mark to the low side over its last six.
TNT will provide coverage of this game at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Minnesota (26-52 SU, 36-41-1 ATS) at Sacramento (31-47 SU, 36-40-2 ATS)
The “roll the ball out” game for Thursday takes place at Sleep Train Area as the Timberwolves and Kings do battle. This game actually has some meaning for Minnesota, who will be looking to sweep the four-game regular season series against Sacramento.
Despite losing three straight and failing to cover in five consecutive games against the Wolves, the Kings are listed as healthy 4½-point home favorites. I’m not surprised to see Sacramento favored but the number is inflated in my opinion and it looks like the books are begging for Minnesota money.
The baited line makes sense since the betting public just saw Minnesota upset Golden State 124-117 in overtime on Tuesday as a 14 ½-point road underdog and more often than not, the masses bet what they remember last. What the public might not know is that the Kings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games while the Wolves were 0-5 ATS prior to their upset over the Warriors.
It’s easy to fall in love with the Wolves and their young core of budding stars but this offense is very inconsistent. Prior to the effort versus Golden State, the club was held to 79, 85 and 78 points. The high total (223½) makes you believe we’ll see a shootout and it should be noted that Minnesota has been a solid ‘over’ bet (24-12-3, 67%) on the road this season.
Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
CHICAGO BULLS (39-39) at MIAMI HEAT (45-32)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Miami -5.5, 203.5
The Bulls will be looking to keep their slim playoff chances alive with a win in Miami on Thursday.
Chicago has been extremely disappointing this season, but the team does have a small chance of making the playoffs. The Bulls will likely need to win the rest of their games and that all starts with this trip to Miami. They have, however, lost two of their past three games and are coming into this one with no momentum at all.
The Heat, meanwhile, won-and-covered in a 107-89 home victory over the Pistons on Tuesday. They have now won four of their past six games and they have also shot 50% or better from the floor in 10 of their past 14 contests. If they can continue to play this well offensively then they’re going to be extremely dangerous in the postseason.
These teams have already met three times in 2016 and Miami has won-and-covered in all of those games. The Heat also happened to have won each of the past two by double digits. One thing worth pointing out is that the Bulls are 2-8 ATS after playing a game as road favorites this season. The Heat, meanwhile, are 21-17 ATS in home games this year.
PF Taj Gibson (Ribs) and SG E’Twaun Moore (Hamstring) are both doubtful for the Bulls in this game and C Hassan Whiteside (Thigh) is questionable for the Heat, who are already without PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) indefinitely.
The Bulls likely need to win every game they play from here on out in order to make the playoffs and they’ll need SG Jimmy Butler (21.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.7 SPG) to play well moving forward. After scoring 25 points on 10-for-11 shooting from the field against the Bucks on Sunday, Butler had just five points on 2-for-8 shooting in a loss to the Grizzlies on Tuesday. Chicago needs more consistency out of him and he’ll need to outplay Dwyane Wade in this game.
PG Derrick Rose (16.5 PPG, 4.8 APG) is also going to need to play well for the Bulls on Thursday. Rose has played just once in the past three contests and he had 12 points and eight assists in that game. If he does not hold his own against Goran Dragic then the Bulls likely won’t have a chance to win this one.
Fortunately for Chicago, C Pau Gasol (16.5 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 2.0 BPG) has played well against Miami this season. In three meetings with the team, Gasol is averaging 17.0 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 5.7 APG and 1.7 BPG. He’ll need to control the paint against Hassan Whiteside in this game.
The Heat have been playing very well offensively and PG Goran Dragic (13.9 PPG, 5.9 APG, 3.7 RPG, 1.0 SPG) is a main reason for that. Over the past five games, Dragic is averaging 16.5 PPG and 6.3 APG. The Heat are playing at a much faster pace and that has allowed Dragic to play his game. He should be in for a really good outing in this one, as he’s averaging 21.5 PPG and 10.0 APG in two meetings with Miami this season.
SG Dwyane Wade (19.2 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG) has also played some solid basketball against Chicago, averaging 18.3 PPG, 5.7 APG and 5.3 RPG in three meetings with the team. He’ll be going up against Jimmy Butler in this game, so it’s important he brings it on both ends of the floor.
C Hassan Whiteside (14.1 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 3.8 BPG) will also need to play a good game on both ends. Whiteside has been an animal for this Heat team recently. Over the past five games, Whiteside is averaging 17.4 PPG, 12.6 RPG and 3.8 BPG. If he can contain Pau Gasol on the defensive end then it’d be huge for Miami.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS (65-12) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (69-9)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -7.5, Total: 208
The Warriors will be going for their 70th victory when they host the Spurs on Thursday.
It’s not very often that a team with 65 wins flies under the radar, but that has been exactly the case for San Antonio this season. The Spurs have been absolutely dominant all year, but they have taken a backseat to the Warriors. Now these teams will meet for a third time when they clash at Oracle Arena on Thursday.
Each of these teams won-and-covered when playing on its home floor in those games, but San Antonio is an impressive 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS when facing Golden State over the past three seasons.
One trend worth pointing out in this game is the fact that San Antonio is 23-12 ATS after two straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds on the seasons.
The Spurs are still trying to earn the top seed in the Western Conference and they can also spoil the Warriors’ chances of winning 73 games with a victory on Thursday. The guy that is going to be most important to this team is PF LaMarcus Aldridge (18.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG). Over the past four games, Aldridge is averaging 21.8 PPG and 10.3 RPG for the Spurs. He had just five points on 2-for-9 shooting in the loss to Golden State this season, but he had 26 points and 13 rebounds on 11-for-25 shooting in the victory. San Antonio will need him to be aggressive in this one, as his offense is the key to the Spurs beating the Warriors.
SF Kawhi Leonard (21.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.8 SPG) will also need to come up big for the Spurs in this game. Leonard is averaging 22.3 PPG over the past three contests, but it is his defense that will be needed in this one. Leonard must shut down whichever wing player he ends up guarding this game or it’ll be tough for San Antonio to keep up.
The Warriors are coming off of a brutal loss to the Timberwolves and they’ll now need to win the rest of their games in order to break the wins record. One guy who must shoot better for the team is PG Stephen Curry (30.0 PPG, 6.7 APG, 5.4 RPG, 2.2 SPG). Curry was a miserable 7-for-25 from the field and 4-for-14 from the outside in the loss to Minnesota. He did dish out 15 assists in that game, but Golden State needs him to be more efficient moving forward.
One guy who was good in that game was SG Klay Thompson (22.5 PPG). Thompson had 28 points in 40 minutes of action and he’ll be counted on to score in this one. He is, however, averaging just 13.0 PPG on 36.7% shooting from the field in two meetings with the Spurs this season. He has had a lot of trouble figuring out San Antonio and he really needs to figure out a way to knock down some shots in this one.