NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, December 15th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Bulls won four of last five games with Milwaukee; under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Chicago won three of last five games in this building. Bulls lost four of last six games; they’re 5-1 in last six games as a road underdog. Three of Bulls’ last four games stayed under. Bucks lost last three games by 4-5-22 points; they’re 3-5 as home favorites. Last four Milwaukee games went over the total.
Pacers won their last ten games with New Orleans (8-1 vs spread in last nine); Indiana won last five visits to Bourbon Street (5-0 vs spread). Under is 6-1 in last seven series games. Pacers are 3-9 on road, 2-4 as road underdog; over is 9-3 in their road games. Pelicans lost six of their last seven games; they’re 5-9 at home, losing last four. Over is 9-4-1 in New Orleans home games.
Portland won nine of last ten games with Denver; Trailblazers won four of last five visits here. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Portland lost four of last five games; they’re 2-9 in last 11 road tilts. Over is 8-3 in Trailblazers’ last 11 games. Nuggets lost three of last four games, are 3-7 at home, losing last three at home. Over is 8-1-1 in Denver’s last ten games overall.
Spurs won last seven games with Phoenix (4-2-1 vs spread); San Antonio won last three games in desert, by 27-28-7 points. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Spurs beat Boston last night; they’re 9-4 as road favorites, 4-1 vs spread on road if they played night before. Over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Suns are 4-7 at home, 5-3 as a road underdog. Seven of last eight Phoenix games went over total.
Knicks lost six of last seven games with Golden State, losing four of last five visits to Oakland (1-4 vs spread). Four of last five series games stayed under. New York won four of last five road games, covered five of last six; they covered last four tries as a road underdog. Over is 4-1 in Knicks’ last five games. Golden State won six of last seven games; they’re 5-6 as home favorites. Four of Warriors’ last five games stayed under.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The second quarter of the NBA regular season is underway and similar to last year, the contenders have lived up to the expectations from the oddsmakers. Even though the league has had its fair share of repeat matchups in the NBA Finals, we’ve never seen the two teams meet in the finals for three consecutive years.
We’ve got a lot of season left, but taking a stab on Golden State-Cleveland III seems like a sound investment and you can get 5/7 odds (Bet $100 to win $70) at Sportsbook.ag.
Golden State has gone 22-4 straight up this season and some pundits might believe the club has underachieved, especially since it acquired All-Star Kevin Durant in the offseason.
The Warriors were 25-1 at this point last season without KD and that included a 24-0 start.
Has Golden State regressed or has the rest of the league improved?
For our purposes, the Warriors are 12-13-1 against the spread this year compared to a 17-8-1 ATS record during the same span last season. I put a lot of stock in point-spread production when evaluating a team and while those records might have you believing Golden State is down, it’s really not the case.
Offensively, Golden State is averaging 117.8 point per game, up from 113.3 PPG last season. The club is shooting 49.5 percent from the field, also up (48%) from last season. The defensive scoring has gone up from 104 PPG to 106.1 PPG but did you know Golden State is ranked third in field goal shooting defense (43.3%) behind a pair of clubs (Jazz and Grizzlies) that play at a super slow pace?
The reason the Warriors aren’t covering as much is because of the oddsmakers, who have done a tremendous job catering to Golden State’s high expectations.
In the first 26 games last season, the Warriors were listed as double-digit favorites 11 times. This season, that number is up to 19 and the club is just below .500 at the betting counter, which is impressive to say the least.
The Golden State-Over parlay combination is easily the most popular wager in the NBA but that brace has only connected six times this season.
Heading into Thursday’s home matchup versus the Knicks, the Warriors have failed to cover the number in four straight and the ‘under’ has cashed in all four games, which makes you believe the books have cleaned up lately.
Golden State opened -14 versus New York (14-11 SU, 15-10 ATS) with a total of 224. Normally I tend to lean to fading heavy favorites when they’re playing their first home game after a long road trip due to the travel factor. However, the matchup always comes first and the large number is justified in this spot.
The Knicks are currently the No. 3 seed in the East, which might be a surprise for many. I touched on New York’s success in Tuesday’s ITP column, which is attributed to their record vs. teams below .500 (9-2).
That formula will get the Knicks into the playoffs but an early exit is very likely knowing they’re just 4-9 against teams with winning records. Golden State has won four straight against New York and every win has come by double digits. The Warriors have gone 3-1 ATS during this span and the lone non-cover came in a 14-point win as 15½-point road favorites. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 during this span.
Knicks point guard Derrick Rose (back) is ‘questionable’ for Thursday.
TNT will provide national coverage at 10:35 p.m. ET.
Along with the late-night tip, we have four other games on tap and every one of the matchups has very strong head-to-head angles to follow or fade.
Indiana at New Orleans: The Pacers have absolutely dominated this series recently, taking 11 straight (9-2 ATS) meetings against the Pelicans. Indiana lost 95-89 at Miami last night as its struggled on no rest this season, going 1-4 both SU and ATS with the defense getting diced up in these spots (112 PPG). While those angles could have you split on Indiana, make a note that New Orleans (-3) is just 1-5 both SU and ATS as a home favorite this season.
Chicago at Milwaukee: This will be the first game of a quick home-and-home set between the pair with the second meeting set at the United Center on Friday. The Bulls won and covered three of their last four encounters against the Bucks but the two games played at the Bradley Center were decided by four and five points. Unlike New Orleans, Milwaukee (-2½) has been a great investment this season as a home favorite, going 6-2 both SU and ATS. Make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 7-1 in those games.
San Antonio at Phoenix: No overnight number was posted but Spurs will likely be favored unless ‘Pop’ decides to rest everybody since they played last night. San Antonio held off Boston 108-101 at home on Wednesday and the fatigue factor hasn’t come into play yet this season with the club going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on zero days rest. The lone loss took place at home while all five of the road wins were by seven or more points. The Suns nipped the Knicks 113-111 in overtime on Tuesday and bettors should be aware that Phoenix is 1-6 off a win this season, five losses by double digits. San Antonio swept all four games against Phoenix last season and it covered three of them. The Spurs won posted 118 and 117 in two trips to the desert and the ‘over’ cashed easily in those games.
Portland at Denver: Portland captured a solid 114-95 home win over Oklahoma City on Tuesday, which snapped a four-game slide. I didn’t expect that effort and if they can answer the bell again on Thursday, I’d be equally impressed considering this matchup will be their fourth in five nights. Confidence should be high for the Trail Blazers, who have won 13 of their last 14 games against the Nuggets and that includes a 112-105 win this season as 7½-point home favorites. Make a note that the last four games played at the Pepsi Center have been decided by six points or less. Denver has been installed as a small favorite (-1½) and is just 2-3 both SU and ATS in that role this season.