NBA Knowledge
Hot Teams
-- Bulls won six of their last nine home games (3-5 HF).
-- Rockets won ten of their last twelve games (5-4 HF).
-- Bucks covered nine of their last twelve games (8-4 AU).
-- Oklahoma City won last seven games, covered last five (2-8-1 AF).
-- Warriors won 16 of their last 17 games (5-3 HF).
Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost 12 of last 13 games (4-3 last seven AU).
-- Pelicans lost five of last six road games (4-6 AU).
-- Sacramento lost nine of its last eleven games (3-4 HF).
Series Records
-- Knicks lost ten of last thirteen games with Chicago.
-- Rockets won seven of last nine games with New Orleans.
-- Kings won four of last six games with Milwaukee.
-- Thunder won eight of last eleven games with Golden State.
Totals
-- Six of last seven Chicago home games went over.
-- 11 of 12 Houston home games stayed under.
-- Last five Pelican games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee road games went over.
-- Nine of last eleven Oklahoma City games stayed under.
Back-to-Backs
-- Rockets are 5-1 if they played the night before.
-- Milwaukee is 4-4 if it played the night before.
East vs West
SU: West 86-43 ATS: West 72-57
East teams HF vs West: 15-21
East teams HU vs West: 16-21
West teams HF vs East: 23-24
West teams HU vs East: 7-2
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
As of this past Monday, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag had Oklahoma City listed as a 5/1 betting choice (Bet $100 to win $500) to win the Western Conference Finals this season, behind San Antonio (5/2) and Golden State (3/1).
The odds seem fair because everybody knows you shouldn’t dismiss the Spurs ever and the Warriors have been playing great basketball. However, I expect OKC to take over the top choice by January, if not sooner.
The Thunder are finally healthy and the two-headed monster of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant look unstoppable. OKC has won seven straight games and are 7-1 since Durant returned to the lineup. The Thunder have gone 5-3 against the spread during this run, which includes five straight covers.
On Tuesday, the Thunder ran past the short-handed Kings 104-92 as eight-point road favorites and OKC head coach Scott Brooks didn’t show any mercy after the victory. "This is an I-don't-feel-sorry-for-you league," Thunder coach Scott Brooks said. "When we had guys hurt, I didn't get a lot of text messages, 'Hey, hang in there,' from the other 29 coaches in the league."
I don’t want to read into Brooks’ comments, but they are refreshing and perhaps he realizes that the window is closing in OKC, which creates a good sense of urgency.
Tuesday’s win pushed Oklahoma City to 12-13 SU and 15-10 ATS.
The Thunder have gone 5-8 both SU and ATS on the road but that includes a 1-7 record without the league’s Most Valuable Player (Durant).
On Thursday, OKC will face a much stiffer road test when it meets Golden State (21-3 SU, 16-8 ATS) from Oracle Arena. Under first-year head coach Steve Kerr, the Warriors have turned heads this season and own the best record in the NBA.
Golden State had its franchise best 16-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday when it lost at Memphis 105-98 as three-point road underdogs. This game was all but over in the 2nd quarter as the Grizzlies opened with a 20-0 run behind a barrage of 3-pointers from Vince Carter.
During their winning streak, the Warriors helped bettors with an 11-5 record versus the number.
These teams met on Nov. 23 in Oklahoma City and Golden State earned a 91-86 win as an eight-point road favorite. Westbrook and Durant sat out for the Thunder in the loss.
Tight games have become a common theme in this series. Last season, Oklahoma City took two of three during the regular season and Golden State’s lone win (116-115) came on a buzzer beater from Andre Iguodala at home. The two wins by OKC at home came by a combined seven points.
Oddsmakers opened Golden State as a 3½-point favorite for Thursday’s matchup.
At home this season, the Warriors have gone 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS. The one loss came on Nov. 11 to San Antonio (113-100) and coincidentally that setback came after Golden State lost on the road at Phoenix (95-107). Déjà vu a month later?
The total for this game opened at 209 and bettors should be aware that both Golden State (15-9) and Oklahoma City (19-6) have been great ‘under’ leans this season.
Tip-off for this game is slated for 10:35 p.m. ET with TNT providing national coverage.
There are three other games slated for Thursday and none of them had overnight numbers posted due to key injuries, which could have you shying away.
Here’s my quick handicap.
New York (5-22 SU, 10-17 ATS) at Chicago (15-9 SU, 11-13 ATS)
I wouldn’t invest any money on New York right now but it has been somewhat respectable versus the number (6-7 ATS) on the road. What’s impressive about Chicago is that it’s played better on the road (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) than at home (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS). The ‘over’ could be a good look considering the home-away tendencies for both teams. Chicago has seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 at the United Center while New York is 9-4 to the ‘over’ on the road. The Bulls hammered the Knicks 104-80 on opening night as 4½-point road favorites and most bettors saw the total (184) push. This game will lead the TNT double-header with an 8:05 p.m. ET start.
New Orleans (12-12 SU, 13-11 ATS) at Houston (19-5 SU, 14-10 ATS)
Kevin McHale has done a great job with this Rockets team and he should be mentioned in Coach of the Year talks. The Rockets are coming off a 115-111 overtime win at the Nuggets last night as three-point road favorites. Houston has been a solid bet at home (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) this season while New Orleans has struggled on the road (4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS). Delving into those road numbers further, you notice that the Pelicans did beat the Spurs in early November but the other three wins came against inferior opponents (Kings, Jazz, Lakers), which tells you that they struggle when stepping up in class. For those of you expecting fatigue for Houston, be careful. The Rockets are 5-1 both SU and ATS when playing on zero days rest this season. Houston won three of the four encounters between the pair last season but New Orleans posted a 3-0-1 ATS mark.
Milwaukee (13-13 SU, 18-8 ATS) at Sacramento (11-14 SU, 13-11 ATS)
Sacramento center DeMarcus Cousins (illness) is expected to return tonight after missing 10 games. The Kings went 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS during his absence and they also fired head coach Mike Malone. Prior to Cousins going down, the Kings were a respectable 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS. Last season, Sacramento routed Milwaukee twice (116-102, 124-107) but this is a different Bucks squad. Losing rookie Jabari Parker (knee) for the season doesn’t help Milwaukee, who has been the top ATS team in the Association this season.
TNT Trend
As mentioned in last week’s Inside the Paint installment, the ‘under’ was on an 11-1 run in nationally televised games aired on TNT.
Last Thursday, we saw a rare ‘over’ ticket but those following the Rockets-Kings outcome are well aware that overtime helped them immensely.
AccuScore’s NBA Pick of the Day
By: Rohit Ghosh
AccuScore.com
AccuScore’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the basketball season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines and spreads. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply or suggest a high chance of covering the spread, it’s a recommended play.
After winning 16 games in a row, Golden State’s streak finally ended Tuesday night in Memphis. The Warriors look to start a new streak Thursday night when they host the Thunder, winners of their last seven.
AccuScore has the Warriors as heavy 73.6 percent favorites to win, which would warrant money-line odds of nearly -280. Multiple Las Vegas books are offering Golden State at -150. While that price looks to be a bargain, many gamblers are averse to laying a number that big.
So let’s look at the point spread and total….
The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 104-97. There is a 65.4 percent chance Golden State covers a -3 spread. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home.
AccuScore Best Bet: There is a 64.7 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 210, a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The total has stayed UNDER in four of Golden State's last five games.
Keep an Eye Out: While both teams have very similar simulated box scores, the Warriors average about four more steals than do the Thunder. A few steals leading to easy points at the other end can be huge momentum shifters, especially at home.
Projected Leaders
Kevin Durant: 21 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 1 steal, 3 TOs
Stephen Curry: 19 points (3-6 3PM), 7 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 3 TOs
Thunder vs. Warriors Betting Preview and Pick
By: Marcus DiNitto
Sportingnews.com
The Warriors had a 16-game win streak snapped with a loss at the Grizzlies on Tuesday but still boast the NBA’s best record at 21-3. From a point-spread perspective, Golden State is a stout 16-8 against the number, the second-best mark in the NBA.
The Thunder, meanwhile, have put together seven-straight wins and nine in their last 10, boosted, of course, by the return of superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. At 12-13, they sit in 10th place in the Western Conference, a half-game out of the eighth and final playoff spot, but, as Las Vegas recognizes, OKC is clearly a championship threat. The Thunder are listed at 8-to-1 odds at the Westgate SuperBook to win the 2014-15 title. They’re also a profitable 14-10-1 at the bet window this season.
The Warriors host the Thunder on Thursday (10:35 p.m. ET, TNT).
Point spread: Warriors -3, Total: 210
Line movement: The Westgate opened Golden State as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday afternoon, adjusting the number to -3 nearly immediately. Then total has bounced between 209 and 210. Check our live odds board for updated NBA point spreads and totals.
Trends and history: Golden State is 6-3 ATS as a home favorite this season. Dating back to May 2013, however, the Warriors are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS over their last eight when laying 4 points or less at home.
The Thunder seem to like the road underdog role. We’ll go back to last season to examine them in this situation, since they’ve yet to be in this role with Durant and Westbrook in the fold this season. They won outright and covered five of their last six games when getting points on the road last regular season. In the 2014 playoffs, they were 0-3 SU and ATS at the Spurs, but 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at the Clippers.
OKC has covered five of the last six meetings with the Warriors, winning four of them outright. The Thunder are also 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Golden State, winning three of those game outright. In the only meeting in Golden State last season, the Warriors won 116-115, but failed to cover as 5-point favorites.
This season’s only meeting, on November 14 – which Durant and Westbrook both missed – stayed UNDER the total. The five previous meetings all went OVER.
The Linemakers’ lean: The Warriors have failed to cover their past two games, but that’s to be expected sooner or later from a team we have rated No. 1 in our power ratings, not to mention one that had won 16 straight (11-5 ATS) before Tuesday’s game at Memphis. As great as their offensive capabilities are, they do their most damage defending, holding opponents to only 41 percent shooting from the field.
The day off to clear their heads and returning home will do the Warriors plenty of good, and our ratings says the game should be closer to -5, so laying -3 with Golden State looks to have value.