NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, December 8th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Nuggets won four of last six games with Washington; they won three of last five visits here. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Denver lost six of its last eight games; they’re 6-3 vs spread as a road underdog. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Nuggets are 2-2 vs spread if they played night before. Washington lost three of last four games; they’re 4-5 as home favorites. Over is 9-3 in Wizards’ last 12 games.
Raptors won nine of last ten games with Minnesota; Wolves lost last six visits here (2-4 vs spread). Four of last five series games went over the total. Minnesota lost five of its last six games; they’re 3-4 vs spread as a road underdog. Over is 3-2 in their last five games. Toronto won six of its last seven games, is 6-3 as a home favorite. Over is 12-3 in their last fifteen games.
Memphis is 6-4 in its last ten games with Portland; Trailblazers won their last two visits here by six points each. Four of last six series games went over the total. Portland won three of its last four games; they’re 2-5 as road underdogs. Six of Blazers’ last seven games went over total. Memphis won 11 of its last 14 games; they’re 2-4 as home favorites. Under is 8-2 in their last ten home games.
76ers lost five of last seven games with New Orleans; Sixers lost last three visits here, by 37-25-7 points. Three of last four series games stayed under. 76ers lost their last eight games; they’re 2-5 as road underdogs. Three of their last four games stayed under total. New Orleans lost five of its last six games; they’re 2-5 as home favorites. Over is 9-2-1 in their home games.
Warriors won their last five games with Utah (4-1 vs spread); under is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Golden State is 15-1 in its last 16 games, 7-4 as road favorites, 1-3 vs spread if they played the night before. Three of their last four games went over the total. Utah won seven of its last eight games, is 7-4 at home, 1-1 as a home underdog. Last six Jazz games went over the total.
Spurs won five of last eight games with Chicago, but lost three of last five visits to Windy City (over 3-2). San Antonio won 13 of its last 14 games; they’re 9-3 as road favorites. Spurs’ last six games went over the total. Chicago lost five of last seven games, is 2-0 as a home underdog. Under is 7-4 in their last 11 games.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Even though Golden State is the odds-on favorite at Sportsbook.ag to win the 2016-17 NBA Finals next summer, taking a stab on the Spurs at 13/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,300) doesn't seem like a bad option.
San Antonio (18-4 straight up, 11-11 against the spread) owns the second best record in the league and they already beat Golden State on opening night in the Bay Area.
Since that road win, San Antonio has captured 12 more victories as a visitor and it can match an NBA record for consecutive away wins to start a season if it beats Chicago (11-10 SU, 12-9 ATS) on Thursday from the United Center.
The Spurs have gone 9-4 versus the number on the road and they’re listed as 3½-point favorites in this spot. Since being listed as an underdog to Golden State in the aforementioned opener, San Antonio has been favored in every other game and they’re 4-0 both SU and ATS when laying four or less points this season.
Chicago has only been a home underdog once this season and it defeated Cleveland 111-105 last Friday as a two-point pup. The Bulls enter this game with a 1-4 record in their last five games and the defense has been shaky during this stretch, allowing 104.4 points per game. San Antonio has picked up its defensive intensity this season and is ranked third in scoring defense (97.8 PPG).
The mismatch in this game will be behind the arc and a lot of pundits expected this to be Chicago’s weakness this season. The Bulls are shooting 31.5 percent from 3-point land, which is dead last in the NBA. The return of forward Doug McDermott should improve that number but the backcourt just can’t buy a shot.
To put things in perspective, San Antonio is ranked second (39.7%) in 3-point field goal percentage right behind Cleveland and just above another pair of title contenders in Toronto and Golden State.
The Spurs and Bulls have gone 3-3 against one another the last three seasons and the home team has captured the previous four meetings. San Antonio has been held to 89 and 81 points in its last two trips to the United Center.
Tonight’s total is hovering between 198 and 199 points. Chicago has been more of an ‘under’ lean (13-8 ) this season but most of those tickets came on the road (10-3). San Antonio enters this game on a 4-1 mark to the ‘under’ in its last five.
TNT will provide coverage of this game at 9:35 p.m. ET.
Along with this matchup, we have five other games on tap for Thursday and below is my quick handicap.
Denver at Washington: Despite an 8-14 record, Denver has been very competitive this season and the ATS numbers (13-9) are strong. However, the Nuggets have dropped four of their last five (2-3 ATS) and they were worked 116-111 at Brooklyn last night. Mike Malone and company have gone 1-3 on no rest this season and the fatigue factor appears to be taking its toll on the defense (108 PPG) in these games. Washington hasn’t played up to its ability (7-13 SU, 7-13 ATS) but it’s been better at home (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) this season. The Nuggets swept last year’s regular season meetings between the pair and the ‘over’ connected in both games and Denver helped that cause by scoring 116 and 117 points. This game has the highest total (218) on the board and both Denver (15-7) and Washington (13-7) have been solid leans to the high side this season.
Minnesota at Toronto: I thought the Raptors (-7½) should’ve been a little higher based on their great form this season, especially against weaker foes. Toronto has seven losses and five of them came to the three best teams in the league - Cavaliers (3), Warriors (1) and Clippers (1). Plus, this matchup has been very lopsided with Toronto winning 18 of the past 20 encounters. One of those wins did come last season as the Timberwolves captured a 117-112 victory at home. The last win for Minnesota at Toronto came in the 2003-04 season when the club was led by future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett. I’m not sure why Minnesota received so much hype prior to the season but they’ve certainly underachieved in the eyes of the oddsmakers. The craziest stat on the T-Wolves this season is that the point-spread hasn’t mattered in any of their 21 games. When they cover as a ‘dog, they win and when they don’t, they get run. If you’re interested, the Wolves are 5/2 (Bet $100 to win $250) on the money-line tonight.
Philadelphia at New Orleans: This game doesn’t provide much value in my opinion and should probably be avoided. The Pelicans (-9) are laying a heavy price, understandably, but it’s hard to back a team that’s 1-5 both SU and ATS as favorites this season. Betting the 76ers this season has been profitable (12-10 ATS) but their numbers on the road (0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS) won’t make you run to the betting counter. Philadelphia went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS against the Pelicans last season but the defense has been missing in their last three trips (121, 99, 135 points) to “The Big Easy”.
Portland at Memphis: The Grizzlies (15-8 SU, 12-11 ATS) have been one of the pleasant surprises in the NBA this season and they enter this game on a four-game winning streak. Portland has a major advantage in the backcourt with Mike Conley out for Memphis but the Trail Blazers lost 115-107 at Milwaukee on Wednesday and fading Portland on back-to-back nights has been golden for bettors this season. The Blazers have gone 0-4 both SU and ATS this season with no rest and the defense (119.8 PPG) has been horrendous in these spots. This will be Portland’s second trip to Memphis this season. The Blazers defeated the Grizzlies 100-94 on Nov. 6 as one-point road favorites, which was their second straight win at this venue.
Golden State at Utah: Betting against the Warriors recently isn’t a smart investment. The club has won 15 of 16 and they’ve racked up a 9-5-1 ATS mark over that span. Golden State humbled the Clippers 115-98 last night as a four-point road favorite at the Staples Center. The Warriors dropped their first back-to-back spot this season by 20 points at the Lakers on Nov. 4 but have won its last three games with no rest and covered two of those victories. The Warriors opened as 5½-point road favorites over the Jazz and they won all four regular season matchups against Utah last season and is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings. The games in Salt Lake City have been much tighter with the Jazz losing both contests last year by a combined 10 points. Utah has won six of its last seven games but only one of those wins came against a team above .500. The Jazz will be missing key players for this contest, including guards George Hill (toe) and Rodney Hood (hamstring) to to injury.