NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, January 12th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Indiana-Denver are playing over in London today. Nuggets are 8-2 in last ten games with Indiana; underdogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine series games— over is 7-3 in last ten. Pacers won/covered their last five games, four of which were at home. Last six Indiana games went over total. Nuggets lost their last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 2-6 in last eight games away from home. Last five Denver games went over.
Pelicans won their last five games with Brooklyn, winning by 20-19 points in last two games here; over is 8-2 in last ten series games. New Orleans lost three of last four games; they’re 3-8SU in last 11 road games. 1-1 as road favorites. Five of their last six games stayed under the total. Nets lost their last seven games, are 9-8 as home underdogs. Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Pelicans had two nights off in NYC after playing Knicks, not always a good thing.
Knicks won/covered four of last five games with Chicago; Bulls lost by 16-12 points in last two visits to Manhattan. Over is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. Chicago lost last two games but covered four of last five; they’re 8-8 as road underdogs, covering last three tries. Three of their last four games stayed under. New York lost nine of last ten games, including last four in row at home. Over is 7-4 in their last eleven home games.
Spurs won their last six games with the Lakers but LA covered three of last four; Lakers lost last three visits to Alamo, by 14-22-4 points. Last five series games went over total. LA lost their last five road games; they’re 4-9 in last 13 games as a road underdog. Four of Lakers’ last five road games went over. San Antonio won seven of last nine games, is 8-1 vs spread in last nine home tilts. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Mavericks won four of last five games with Phoenix; teams split last four games played here. Last three series games stayed under total. Dallas lost its last three games but is 4-2 vs spread in last six road games- they’re 7-4 in last 11 games as a road underdog. Suns won three of last four home games (4-0 vs spread); they’re 2-4 as home favorites. Five of their last six games stayed under the total.
Golden State won nine of last ten games with Detroit but Pistons covered three of last four; Detroit lost last four visits to Oakland (2-2 vs spread). Five of last six series games stayed under the total. Pistons lost four of last six road games, are 5-10 as road underdogs. Four of their last five games went over total. Golden State won six of last seven games but covered just one of last six games. Over is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
New York Struggles
Two of the coldest clubs in the NBA currently reside in New York and they’re both in action on Thursday.
After a promising start to the season and hopes of making the playoffs, the Knicks (17-22 straight up, 22-17 against the spread) have fallen apart on and off the court. New York has dropped nine of its last 10 games (4-6 ATS) and four of the losses have been decided by five points or less.
Last night, New York collapsed at Philadelphia and lost a 98-97 decision. Point guard Derrick Rose returned to the club after an unexcused absence and actually played well (25 points) against the 76ers.
On Thursday, New York welcomes Rose’s former team to Madison Square Garden when Chicago (19-20 SU, 19-20 ATS) visits. As bad as the Knicks are playing, they’ve been installed as short favorites (-3) over the Bulls.
Chicago is coming off back-to-back losses and it already dropped the first meeting this season against the Knicks on Nov. 4 as New York captured a 117-104 road win.
Make a note that New York hasn’t won when playing on no rest this season, going 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS. Total bettors should be aware that the ‘over’ has gone 6-1 in the back-to-back spots for New York.
While the Knicks have been horrible lately, the Nets (8-29 SU, 18-17-2 ATS) have outdone their neighbors. Brooklyn has dropped seven straight and is 4-25 in its last 29 games with their last win coming on Dec. 26 against Charlotte (120-118) at home.
Brooklyn lives and dies on the 3-point shot and if they’re not falling, it doesn’t have a chance to win because the defense has been an afterthought this season. The unit is ranked last in scoring, allowing 114.1 points per game. To put things in perspective, the Nets have only kept three teams under the century mark this season.
New Orleans (15-24 SU, 18-20-1 ATS) visits the Barclays Center and the Pelicans could be without All-Star Anthony Davis (hip) on Thursday. The Pelicans have won five straight over the Nets and will likely be rare road favorites in this spot.
For what it’s worth, Brooklyn has notched five of its eight wins against the Western Conference this season and four of them came at home.
International Action
The NBA Global Games returns Thursday with not one but two games on tap.
Indiana (20-18 SU, 17-21 ATS) vs. Denver (14-23 SU, 18-19 ATS)
This will be the seventh game played at the The O2 Arena from London and favorites have gone 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in the first six in this event while the ‘over’ has produced a 4-2 mark. No opening line was posted on this game due to the ‘questionable’ status of Denver forward Danilo Gallinari (ankle).
The Pacers enter this game on a roll, winning and covering five straight games. The offense is averaging 118.6 points per game during this run and that’s led to a 5-0 ‘over’ record. Make a note that four of the five wins came at home and all of the opponents were below .500.
Denver falls into the aforementioned group of losing teams and coincidentally it enters this game with five consecutive losses, three of them coming at the Pepsi Center. Denver’s issues is defense or lack thereof. The Nuggets are ranked 28th in scoring defense (111.2 PPG) and they’ve surrendered 123.8 PPG during their current losing streak. To no surprise, the ‘over’ has cashed in all five losses.
Fans in the United Kingdom might have a good chance of watching a tight game on Thursday based on the recent history between these teams. Denver has won two of the last three encounters but all three games were decided by four points or less.
Dallas (11-27 SU, 17-21 ATS) vs. Phoenix (12-26 SU, 19-18 ATS)
This is the third game played in Mexico City in the last three seasons and fourth overall. Favorites have gone 2-0 both SU and ATS the last two years, while the total went 1-1.
The Suns have won and covered the only meeting against the Mavericks this season, a 102-95 win at Dallas last Thursday as 5 ½-point road underdogs.
Including that setback, Dallas has now dropped three in a row and four of its last five. The Mavericks have been hobbled all season with injuries but they’ve been better in the second quarter (7-11) of the season after starting 4-16.
The Suns haven’t played since Sunday when they came up short to Cleveland, losing a 120-116 decision at home. Phoenix covered in the loss (+8.5) and has now cashed ticked in five of its last six games.
The total on this game (202) seems a little low based on Phoenix’s weak defensive tendencies (111.9 PPG) but Dallas has been a solid ‘under’ wager (17-13) this season and the Suns enter this matchup on a 5-1 run to the low side.
Two Straight?
San Antonio (30-8 SU, 23-15 ATS) will look to bounce back on Thursday after dropping a 109-107 decision to Milwaukee on Tuesday as a 10-point home favorite. The setback was just their eighth of the season and bettors should note that the club has gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS after a loss.
The Spurs will face the Los Angeles Lakers (15-27 SU, 19-22-1 ATS) in the rebound matchup and the oddsmakers expect them to cruise as favorites (-14½). San Antonio has won six straight meetings against Los Angeles, which includes a 116-107 won on Nov. 18 as a 7½-point road favorite.
The Lakers have gone 3-3 both SU and ATS in January and the key to Luke Walton’s club has been defense. In the last six games, the club allowed 99 PPG in the three wins and 116.3 PPG in the losses.
The Spurs have gone 13-4 since Dec. 6 and the point-spread hasn’t matter in any of those 17 games. When they win, they cover and vice versa with losses. So if you’re looking to back the Lakers, a look at the generous money-line (+1150) might be in play.
Golden Burn
The Warriors (33-6 SU, 16-22-1 ATS) host the Pistons (18-22 SU, 18-22 ATS) in Thursday’s late-night tip on TNT and bettors could be hesitant to back Golden State, who opened as 13 ½-point home favorites.
The two-time defending Western Conference champions will likely be in the hunt for another NBA Finals appearance but covering games on a nightly basis hasn’t been on their agenda this season.
Golden State has lost money for bettors and it enters this matchup with six straight losses against the spread. The club has gone 5-1 SU during this span and every win came by eight-plus points but when you’re consistently laying double digits, covering becomes a lot tougher. Especially when you’re defense hasn’t been great and that’s been the case during this recent stretch (110.6 PPG).
The Warriors dropped the Pistons 119-113 on Dec. 23 as eight-point road favorites and the ‘over’ (214½) connected. Including that win, Golden State has won 10 of the past 11 meetings against Detroit and the Pistons haven’t won in the Bay Area since 2008.
Detroit has been playing a tad faster lately and the ‘over’ has produced a 7-2 mark in its last nine games. The Pistons have been an ‘under’ lean (22-18) all season but the ‘over’ (12-8 ) has been better on the road.
Golden State faces Cleveland at home on Monday after this game and while the look-ahead could be in play, the time between the two contests certainly lessens that angle.
Thursday’s NBA Game of the Day: Bulls at Knicks
By Covers.com
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks (-3, 204)
The Chicago Bulls unloaded Derrick Rose on the New York Knicks in the offseason and will run into the former NBA MVP on Thursday in New York as he continues to deal with the fallout from his odd behavior earlier this week. Rose missed Monday's game against New Orleans without informing the club - even declining to answer the team's calls - before returning Tuesday to say he was dealing with a family issue.
Rose still hasn't expounded on the reasons for his disappearing act, but he scored 25 points in Wednesday's 98-97 loss to Philadelphia - a contest in which New York led by 13 points with eight-plus minutes remaining before collapsing for its ninth loss in 10 games. "The good thing about the NBA is we have another game (Thursday)," Rose told reporters after the defeat. "So we've got to keep our heads up and put this one behind us and go out and try to win the next one." Chicago will be without leading scorer Jimmy Butler (illness) for the second straight game while shooting guard Dwyane Wade will be back in the lineup after being held out for rest in Tuesday's 101-99 loss to Washington. First-round pick Denzel Valentine received 30 minutes of playing time with Butler and Wade out and recorded season highs of 19 points and five 3-pointers.
LINE HISTORY: The Knicks opened as 3-point home favorites over the Bulls and that number has held firm. The total hit the board at 205 but took a drop to 203.5 before rebounding to 204 Thursday morning. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Bulls - SF Jimmy Butler (Out, Illness), PF Nikola Mirotic (Out, Flu)
Knicks - No injuries to report
POWER RANKINGS: Bulls (-2.5) - Knicks (1.0) + home court (-3) = Knicks -1.5
ABOUT THE BULLS (19-20 SU, 19-20 ATS, 14-24-1 O/U): Point guard Rajon Rondo returned to the rotation after a five-game benching and produced 12 points and six assists in 27 minutes. "I've talked to him about (the benching). The biggest thing is how he's handled it," Chicago coach Fred Hoiberg told reporters. "He has been a positive influence on the bench for the younger guys - he's been very vocal encouraging them. In my mind, it was just a matter of time before he got the opportunity to get back out there. He took advantage and we should see him more in the lineup." Rondo recently said Hoiberg didn't give him a reason for why he was pulled from the starting lineup and banished to the bench.
ABOUT THE KNICKS (17-22 SU, 22-17 ATS, 20-19 O/U): Rose denied reports that he is frustrated with coach Jeff Hornacek, who occasionally has replaced him in the late stages of games in favor of undrafted rookie Ron Baker. He has struggled to find a comfort level with New York but said the possibility of seeing his former squad also had nothing to do with his brief hiatus. "No. It's the past, to tell you the truth," Rose told reporters. "Can't think about the days I played for the Bulls in a Bulls uniform, that is all in the past."
TRENDS:
* Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 8-0 in Bulls last 8 Thursday games.
* Under is 9-2 in Knicks last 11 games following a ATS loss.
* Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New York.
CONSENSUS: 51 percent of users are taking the road dog Bulls and Over is picking up 62 percent of the totals wagers.