NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, January 19th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Cavaliers won last four games with Phoenix but Suns covered six of last eight series games. Phoenix lost by 10-22 points in last two visits here. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight series games. Suns lost three of last four games, covered five of last six; they’re 2-5 in last seven games as a road underdog- their last four games went over total. Cleveland lost three of last four games (under 3-1); they’re 8-4-1 in last 13 games as a home favorite.
Miami won nine of last ten games with Dallas, covered four of last five; Mavericks lost four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Last four series games stayed under. Dallas won its last three games; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a road underdog. Heat lost four of last five games, is 2-5 in last seven home games, 3-4 vs spread as a home favorite. Three of their last four games stayed under.
Washington won nine of its last ten games with the Knicks (7-2-1 vs spread); Wizards won last five visits to Manhattan, with 3 of 5 wins by 3 or less points. Three of last four series games went over total. Washington won six of its last seven games, but they lost four of last five road games. Knicks lost five of last seven games but covered three of last four; they’re 1-5 in last six home games. Three of their last four home games stayed under.
Spurs won nine of last ten games with Denver (7-3 vs spread); Nuggets lost last four visits to Alamo (2-2 vs spread). Six of last eight series games went over total. Denver won/covered its last three games; they’re 9-6 as road underdogs. Last eight Nugget games went over the total. Spurs won nine of last 12 games, are 7-2 in last nine games as a home favorite. Over is 9-2 in San Antonio’s last 11 games.
Clippers are 7-12 without Paul the last two years. Clippers won nine of last ten games with Minnesota but are 3-3-1 in last seven series games; Timberwolves lost four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Minnesota lost six of last nine games; they’re 7-7 as a road underdog. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Clippers won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread) but are missing Griffin/Paul now. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Dallas, on Wesley Matthews' 3-pointer with 11.7 seconds remaining salvaged a 99-98 win as +4.5 point pups over Chicago last effort marking a season-high three game win streak for the Mavericks. Despite the victory, life on the road has not been easy for Dallas. In Mavericks' 22 on unfriendly hardwood the reault has been 6 wins, 16 losses (11-11 ATS) with the team netting 101.9 per 100 possesions, 109.4 in defensive efficiency rating in those road games.
Heat snapped a four-game skid in their last game upsetting Rockets 109-103 as +7.5 home underdogs. Although, the home team is considered to have a significant advantage over the visitors a result of playing in familiar facilities and in front of supportive fans, it does not seem to apply to Miami. Including the win over Rockets, the Heat have just 6 wins, 13 losses in front of the home audience (8-11 ATS) netting 102.1 in home offensive efficiency metrics, allowing 102.9 in home defensive efficiency metrics.
Home/Road splits what they are, tough choice. However, Mavericks should be extremely motivated to keep the season-high streak alive and worth a second look. Mavericks are ridding a 6-3 ATS streak as road dogs, have shown motivation the next game after a one point exact win going 4-0 SU/ATS last four situations. Additionally, Miami has not responded in the situation they find themselves. Heat are just 1-5 ATS as chalk after running the hardwood against Rockets, 0-3 ATS as favorites after a win by six or fewer points.
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
George Karl is no longer coaching in Denver but it’s hard to tell when you watch this year’s Nuggets squad, especially lately.
It’s rare to make the playoffs in the Western Conference with a losing record but Denver (17-23 straight up, 21-19 against the spread) currently sits in the eighth and final spot. If the club makes the postseason, a quick first-round exit would be likely against the Warriors or Spurs but it’s safe to say that either series would be entertaining to watch.
The Nuggets are ranked fourth in scoring offense with 109.7 points per game and they’re attempting 87.7 shots per game, which is the third fastest pace in the league. Defensively, Denver is ranked 28th in both field goal percentage (47.2%) and scoring (111.5 PPG).
A great offense and suspect defense usually produces ‘over’ tickets and it’s not surprising to see Denver lead the league with a 29-10-1 (74%) record to the high side.
VegasInsider.comNBA handicapper Paul Bovi is a little surprised that Denver continues to play so recklessly and actually win. He said, “The Nuggets have become amongst the most prolific scoring offenses in the league, while at the same time deemphasizing defense despite the outspoken criticism of their coach Mike Malone. Since his comments were made public on Jan. 4, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 118 PPG in winning three of five games while scoring at a 120 clip themselves. In the last three, they've logged an astounding 214 points in the paint but have allowed 166.”
Bovi isn’t sure if the points will keep coming but the bookmakers have taken notice.
“There was some value in their totals recently however those bargains are likely to evaporate going forward,” explained Bovi.
Denver visits San Antonio (32-9 SU, 24-17 ATS) on Thursday and the oddsmakers aren’t expecting the club to extend the winning streak on the road. The Spurs opened as 11 ½-point home favorites and the number moved quickly to 12½ at most betting shops.
The total is holding steady at 219 and that’s the lowest number Denver has seen in four games, which could be a bit of a head scratcher. The Nuggets are on a 7-0 run to the ‘over’ and one of those outcomes came on Jan. 5 when they were blasted 127-99 to the Spurs at home. San Antonio was the club shooting lights out in that win, connecting on 56.7 percent of its shots and 12-of-24 from 3-point land.
That effort from the Spurs has become a common theme this season. San Antonio is averaging 107.1 PPG, up four points from last season, and it leads the league in 3-point shooting percentage (41.5%). Those offensive results have translated into a 24-16-1 ‘over’ mark for the Spurs.
Including the win a couple weeks ago, the Spurs have taken 11 of 12 versus the Nuggets and they’ve covered eight of those wins. Make a note that even though Denver is playing looser lately, the Spurs have had their number defensively in recent meetings from the AT&T Center. Denver has dropped seven straight trips at this venue and the offense has been held in check (98.5 PPG) during this stretch.
Along with this matchup from San Antonio, there are four other games on tap for Thursday.
Phoenix (13-28 SU, 21-19 ATS) at Cleveland (29-11 SU, 17-21 ATS): The Cavaliers return home Thursday after a six-game road trip that watched them to struggle to a 3-3 record which ended with a humbling 35-point loss (126-91) at Golden State on Monday. Despite owning the best record in the Eastern Conference, the defending NBA champions have been the second worst team against the spread this season (17-21) and most of the losses have come in January (1-7 ATS). These teams just met on Jan. 8 and the Suns dropped a 120-116 home decision to Cleveland but they covered as 8½-point home underdogs. Since LeBron James returned to the Cavs, the club has gone 5-1 in the last six encounters in this series but Phoenix has managed to earn covers in four of those games. Even though Phoenix is 15 games under .500 this season, it has produced an 8-5 record versus the East and that includes a 2-2 road mark (3-1 ATS). Most shops have Cleveland listed as an 1½-point favorite. Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (back) is listed as ‘questionable’ for this game.
Dallas (14-27 SU, 20-21 ATS) at Miami (12-30 SU, 20-22 ATS): Neither of these teams are going to this year’s playoffs but they both enter this matchup off wins. Miami knocked off Houston 109-103 on Tuesday as a 7½-point home underdog which snapped a four-game losing skid. The Heat haven’t been a great bet off a win this season, going 3-8 and they face a Dallas team that brings a three-game winning streak to town. The Mavericks started the season 1-12 on the road but have gone 4-3 in their last seven and they’ve covered five of those games. For what it’s worth, this series has been one-sided in the Heat’s favor since the Dallas beat Miami in six games of the 2011 NBA Finals. The Heat have captured nine of the past 10 meetings and four of the previous five from South Florida. Total bettors should note that Dallas has been one of the better ‘under’ wagers (24-17) and it enters this game on a 5-1 run to the low side and tonight’s number (197) is the lowest on the board.
Washington (22-19 SU, 22-19 ATS) at New York (19-24 SU, 25-18 ATS): The Wizards have won 11 of the past 12 meetings against the Knicks, which includes a 119-112 decision on Nov. 17 as five-point home favorites. During this span, the Wizards have won five straight at Madison Square Garden but three of the five victories were decided by three points or less. Both of these clubs won on Wednesday and bettors could be hesitant to back either one in this spot tonight. When playing with no rest, neither Washington (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) or New York (1-8 SU, 5-4 ATS) have been sound investments in back-to-back spots. The Wizards have been in much better form than the Knicks, winners in six of their last seven games. However, Washington’s home (18-6) and away (4-13) tendencies have been very drastic this season. New York hasn’t won back-to-back games since mid-December but it has been solid at Madison Square Garden (12-9 SU, 14-7 ATS) this season.
Minnesota (14-28 SU, 19-23 ATS) at L.A. Clippers (29-14 SU, 22-21 ATS): Tough game to handicap here due to the Chris Paul thumb injury, which occurred in Monday’s 120-98 home win over Oklahoma City. The All-Star point guard is expected to miss up to eight weeks and those minutes will likely be filled by a combination of Austin Rivers, Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford. The Clippers have gone 3-5 without him this season and were playing at a high level recently, winners in seven straight games (6-1 ATS). Los Angeles has won 17 of the last 20 meetings against Minnesota and that includes a 119-105 win on Nov. 12 as a 5½-point road favorite. The Timberwolves have struggled on the road (5-15 SU, 7-13 ATS) and they enter this game with six straight losses as visitors. As expected, the Clippers (-2) aren’t going to be laying heavy digits anymore until Paul returns.