Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Lakers at Heat
Los Angeles: 16-26 SU, 23-18-1 ATS
Miami: 30-12 SU, 18-24 ATS
The Lakers have turned into a solid money-maker on their current road trip, cashing in each of their first four games as Los Angeles travels to South Florida to take on the defending champion Heat. Mike D'Antoni's club has picked up outright underdog victories at Boston and Toronto with late rallies, while falling short in overtime in Monday's 102-100 defeat as 8 ½-point 'dogs.
Los Angeles is rolling the ball out of late, hitting the 'over' in five consecutive games, while allowing at least 100 points in nine straight contests. The last time the Lakers met up with the Heat on Christmas Day at Staples Center, Los Angeles hung tough but ultimately fell, 101-95. The Lakers took home the money as 9½-point underdogs, but L.A. has lost six of the last seven meetings with Miami since 2010.
The Heat staved off the Celtics on Tuesday, 93-86, but failed to cover as nine-point home favorites. That game was the first at home back from a six-game road swing in which Miami posted a 2-4 SU/ATS record, including four losses in the favorite role. Dwyane Wade has missed the last three games resting his ailing knee, as the Heat are 8-2 to the 'over' in the 10 contests he has sat out this season.
Since Christmas, the Heat has played just four games at the American Airlines Arena, going 3-1 SU and just 1-3 ATS. As a double-digit home favorite this season, Miami has covered four of nine times, while winning eight times in this role with the lone defeat coming to Boston back in November in overtime. Since starting December with seven straight 'overs' at home, the Heat has finished 'under' the total in each of the last three home contests.
Nuggets at Blazers
Denver: 20-20 SU, 18-22 ATS
Portland: 31-11 SU, 24-18 ATS
The Blazers return to the Moda Center following a four-game road trip against clubs that are likely headed to the playoffs. Portland won the first two contests at San Antonio and Dallas, but couldn't complete the "Texas Triangle" sweep in Monday's high-scoring defeat at Houston. The Blazers blew a late lead in Tuesday's 105-97 setback at Oklahoma City, while failing to cover as 6½-point underdogs to finish the trip at 2-2 SU/ATS.
One system that many handicappers turn to is going against home teams coming off a long road trip in the NBA. For the most part, home double-digit favorites in this situation are usually a good go-against bet, but what about teams in more manageable favorite spots from 1-8 points? Unfortunately this season, it is a coin-toss proposition, with 34 situations of home teams coming off road trips of three games or more and listed as a favorite of eight points or less are 17-17 ATS for a slight loss of profit. This is Portland's third time returning home from a lengthy road swing this season as the Blazers failed to cover in their first two opportunities in victories over the Bulls and Pelicans.
The Nuggets have been off for three days since Sunday's 117-103 setback at Phoenix as a short underdog, while Denver looks to snap a two-game skid. Brian Shaw's team is also playing with revenge tonight after getting drilled by the Blazers in their home opener, 113-98, as Portland knocked down 14 three-pointers in the victory. Denver's offense was dreadful that night, converting 32% of its shots from the floor, while missing 14 free throws.
Since a slow offensive start to the season, the Nuggets are picking up the numbers of late by hitting five straight 'overs,' while going 'over' the total in five consecutive games away from the Pepsi Center. However, Denver has struggled on the highway by losing two of its last seven road contests, but one of those victories came at Golden State as eight-point underdogs, 123-116.
NBA Doubleheader: Lakers at Heat, Nuggets at Trail Blazers
By Covers.com
Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat (-12.5, 210.5)
The Los Angeles Lakers are showing some fight on their seven-game road trip with two wins and an overtime setback at Chicago in the last three contests. The Lakers will try to make it three of four when they visit the defending champion Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat had dropped four of six before coming through on the defensive end in a 93-86 triumph over the Boston Celtics on Tuesday that marked the start of a four-game homestand.
Los Angeles had dropped six straight before turning things around with a pair of wins at Boston and Toronto. Taj Gibson’s overtime buzzer beater prevented a third straight triumph but Pau Gasol turned in another strong effort and is averaging 22 points and 13.7 rebounds in the last three games. Miami has won three straight at home and LeBron James is enjoying another hot streak while shooting 52.6 percent from the field over the last four contests.
LINE: The Heat opened as 12-point faves and now sit at -12.5. The total opened at 211 and now sits at 210.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Los Angeles (-0.5) - Miami (-14.3) + home court (-3) = Miami -16.8
ABOUT THE LAKERS (16-26, 23-18-1 ATS): Gasol is holding together a roster short on time together but is helping to coax career-best performances out of the likes of Nick Young and Kendall Marshall. The latest to step up is rookie Ryan Kelly, who is averaging 16.7 points while playing at least 34 minutes in each of the last three contests after failing to score in double figures in any of his first 17 NBA games. The forward from Duke found his way into the starting lineup after putting up 20 points at Boston on Friday and is helping to stretch the defense with his 3-point shooting ability.
ABOUT THE HEAT (30-12, 18-24 ATS): James made some noise before Tuesday’s game about the absence of Dwyane Wade, who missed his third straight game due to knee soreness. “It’s tough,” James told reporters of the injury troubles of Wade and others in the rotation. “We have a team built on chemistry, built on rhythm.” All the chemistry Miami needed down the stretch on Tuesday was James himself, as the star forward scored seven of his 29 points in the final 2:32. Wade, who was held to eight points in back-to-back games last week before sitting out, remains day-to-day.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Lakers are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Heat have taken three straight in the series, including a 101-95 triumph in Los Angeles on Dec. 25 behind 23 points from Wade.
2. Lakers F Xavier Henry (knee) has missed the last 11 games but is expected to practice on Wednesday and is questionable for Thursday.
3. Miami C Chris Bosh is shooting 63.6 percent from the field in the last three wins.
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-7, 221.5)
The Portland Trail Blazers haven’t lost three straight games all season and strive to avoid that occurring when they host the Denver Nuggets on Thursday. Portland lost consecutive games to Houston and Oklahoma City to end a four-game homestand and has slipped below both the San Antonio Spurs and the Thunder in the Western Conference race. Denver has lost three of four while allowing an average of 117 points.
The Nuggets won five consecutive games before the recent defensive struggles and will play five of six at home after the visit to Portland. The Trail Blazers led Oklahoma City for most of Tuesday’s contest before Kevin Durant took over late in the game, handing Portland a loss in the finale of a road excursion in which it allowed an average of 110.5 points. Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge has strung together six consecutive double-doubles and is averaging 27.5 points and 15.3 rebounds during the stretch.
LINE: The Blazers opened as 7-point faves. The total opened at 220.5 and and is up to 221.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-7.3) - Portland (-10.7) + home court (-3) = Portland -6.4
ABOUT THE NUGGETS (20-20, 18-22 ATS): Denver had been preparing for the return of forward Danilo Gallinari but learned earlier this week that he is done for the season after requiring a second operation on his injured left knee. Gallinari tore his ACL last April and the original prognosis pinpointed a return late this season. “It’s a tough situation,” point guard Ty Lawson told reporters. “He’s been working all year to get back on the court. It’s tough for him. We’re going to be here for him, keep encouraging him and just let him know that we want him back soon.”
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (31-11, 24-18 ATS): Guard Damian Lillard (131) is second in the NBA in 3-pointers behind Golden State’s Klay Thompson (132) but struggled from long range during the road trip. Lillard went 6-of-24 on the excursion – missing all five attempts against Oklahoma City – and dropped his season percentage to 43 percent. Lillard has scored 17 or fewer points in five of the last nine games as Aldridge has been the focal point of the attack with his standout play. Lillard averages 21.2 points – second on the squad to Aldridge’s 24.2.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Nuggets are 0-4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Portland.
* Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Portland defeated the Nuggets 113-98 in Denver on Nov. 1 in this season’s first meeting.
2. Trail Blazers F Nicolas Batum (fractured finger) played 35 minutes against the Thunder but scored just three points.
3. Lawson has nine double-doubles over the last 10 games.
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Denver at Portland
When the high-octane Blazers host the Nuggets on Thursday there's an 'Over' Whelming probability that a high-scoring shootout unfolds. Blazers netting a league high 109.3 points/game, Nuggets racking up the points the past three netting an average 111.7 per/contest sets the table for a fast paced contest. Blazers who respond offensively following a sub 100 point effort (113.7) should get a boat-load vs Nuggets shredded for 116.7 per/game last three on the hardwood. Nuggets with it's sudden offensive outburst get their share vs Blazers surrendering 107.6 PPG this past week. Look for Blazers to improve the 23-2 O/U mark when scoring =>105 points while Denver adds to it's sparkling 12-0 O/U netting =>105 points. Other trends pointing 'Over - Blazers are 16-6 O/U vs a poor defensive team (=>100), the series is 4-0 O/U overall, 4-1 O/U last five meetings in Portland.