NBA Knowledge
Thursday's hot teams
-- Memphis won five of its last six games (6-2-1 last 9HF).
-- Bucks won four of their last six games (8-5 last 13AU).
-- Toronto won its last nine games (8-1 vs spread).
-- Kings won five of last seven games, but lost last two (6-3 last nine AU).
-- New Orleans won five of last seven (3-1 last 4HF).
Cold teams
-- Washington lost four of its last five games (5-10HF).
-- Nuggets lost four of their last five games (8-4 last 12AU).
-- Hawks lost three of their last four games (5-5AU).
-- Indiana lost six of its last seven games (3-5 last 8HF).
-- Knicks lost five of their last seven games (12-8AU).
-- Chicago lost three of last four games (3-3AF).
-- Lakers lost their last seven games (2-5 vs spread).
Series records
-- Wizards won four of last six games with Denver.
-- Hawks won three of last four games with Indiana.
-- Grizzlies won eight of last nine games with Milwaukee.
-- Knicks lost three of last four visits to Toronto.
-- Pelicans won four of last five games with Sacramento.
-- Lakers lost six of last eight games with Chicago.
Totals
-- Six of last eight Denver games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Last eight Memphis games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight New York-Toronto games went over.
-- Five of last six Sacramento games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Chicago road games went over.
Back/backs
-- Denver is 5-3 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Hawks are 1-4 vs spread on road if they played night before.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
This week in the Association started with some great back-and-forth action at the betting counter but the last two days has been nothing but easy ‘chalk’ winners, with favorites going 15-1 straight up and 11-5 against the spread.
Last night’s card saw watched the three heavyweights of the NBA cover as the Cavaliers (-18), Spurs (-9.5) and Warriors (-18) connected.
Since Sunday, favorites are 22-7 SU and 17-12 ATS while the ‘over’ has gone 16-13.
Thursday’s card features six games on tap, including the weekly TNT double-header.
Some of the lines are tight and I’d expect a couple of these underdogs to strike back. Below is my quick handicap on the entire card.
Denver (17-29 SU, 23-21-2 ATS) at Washington (20-23 SU, 22-21 ATS)
The Nuggets enter this game off back-to-back losses, which includes a 111-103 loss at Boston last night. Denver did captured the cover (+9.5) and it’s been a solid lean for bettors lately with an 8-3 ATS mark over its 11 games.
Denver has struggled on no rest this season with a 3-7 record but it has been competitive at the betting counter with a 6-4 mark versus the number. The Nuggets have averaged 107.2 points per game in their last six back-to-back spots, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1. Tonight’s total is hovering around 210.
Make a note that the Wizards have seen the ‘under’ cash in four straight and the offense just isn’t consistent without Bradley Beal in the lineup and he’s ‘doubtful’ for tonight’s game with a concussion. Washington has dropped four of its last five games and the defense (104 PPG) can take a lot blame too.
Last season, the Wizards swept the regular season series against Denver last season, posting 119 and 117 points in both victories. However, Washington has struggled to a 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS mark versus the West this season.
Washington (-6) has also been less than stellar as a home favorite this season, going 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS.
Atlanta (27-20 SU, 22-23-2 ATS) at Indiana (23-22 SU, 23-22 ATS)
This is a very tough game to pick and the opening line, Indiana -2½, tells you that the game is practically even. Both clubs enter this game off home losses and coincidentally each team lost to the Clippers at home after long road trips.
Indiana point guard George Hill returned from injury last Saturday but he still looks rusty and I’m hesitant to back this team until backup PG Rodney Stuckey returns. Since he’s been out, the Pacers have gone 1-6 both SU and ATS.
Including last night’s 85-83 loss to Los Angeles, the Hawks are 1-3 in their last four the three setbacks came by a combined eight points. The Hawks are a respectable 7-4 SU (5-6 ATS) in back-to-back spots this season but that record is very misleading. Atlanta is 6-0 at home on zero days rest but just 1-4 on the road and that lone win came versus Houston, who blew a huge lead to the Hawks.
These teams met in late December from Indiana and the Pacers captured a 93-87 victory as 1½-point home favorites. Prior to that setback, Atlanta had won and covered three straight against Indiana.
The total seems a tad high at 203½ just based on form, with Indiana (6-1) and Atlanta (4-1) bringing strong ‘under’ leans into this game.
Milwaukee (20-27 SU, 25-22 ATS) at Memphis (26-20 SU, 21-24-1 ATS)
Head coach Jason Kidd returned to the Bucks on Tuesday and the team responded with a 107-100 win over the Magic and they actually managed to cover as five-point favorites due to another Magic collapse. Without Kidd, assistant Joe Prunty guided the team to a respectable 8-9 SU and 10-7 ATS mark and that included notable wins over the Bulls, Hawks, Heat and Mavericks.
Based on this year’s ratings, Memphis is certainly in the same class with that quartet but down from previous years. The Grizzlies have won five of six and seven of their last nine games yet they’re not getting as much respect by the oddsmakers, and a lot of that has to with their defense.
The Grizzlies are allowing 99 points per game, compared to 95.2 PPG the two previous seasons. Everybody is a little older now and you have a lot of new faces on the court. The effort hasn’t been great lately and total bettors have seen the ‘over’ cash in the last eight games. Memphis has helped that cause with some great offensive production lately, plus all these totals in hovering in the mid-nineties.
Memphis has owned Milwaukee recently, winning eight of the last 10 encounters and that includes four straight setbacks at the FedEx Forum by nine or more points.
New York (22-25 SU, 27-20 ATS) at Toronto (30-15 SU, 26-18-1 ATS)
Toronto opened as a 9½-point home favorite against New York. Early reports have PG Kyle Lowry (wrist) listed as ‘questionable’ for the Raptors and New York could be without Carmelo Anthony (knee) as well.
Entering Thursday, the Raptors have won nine straight and more importantly they’ve covered eight of those games. It’s noted here that the schedule has been kind with the last five played at the Air Canada Centre but four of those victories were by double digits.
The Raptors play great defense and since center Jonas Valanciunas returned to the lineup, the club has gone 12-3 and he’s been a double-double machine recently. When he was out for 17 games, they went 10-7.
New York is definitely more competitive this season but if the shots aren’t falling, they have no shot. The Knicks have won five games this season when they were held under 100 points, 17 when eclipsing the century mark. Toronto’s defense (96.6 PPG) is vastly underrated and that could have you leaning host in this spot.
Despite the Raptors sound defense, these teams have played fast in their recent meetings. The ‘over’ has cased in four straight and seven of the last 10 games between the pair. Both clubs have notched five wins a piece during this span with New York winning the last decision, a 111-109 victory at Toronto on Nov. 10 as a 7½-point underdog.
Sacramento (20-25 SU, 22-23 ATS) at New Orleans (16-28 SU, 19-25 ATS)
No overnight line was posted with Rudy Gay (eye) expected to miss for the Kings and the Pelicans will more than likely not have Anthony Davis (head) ready to go tonight.
The Davis injury doesn’t help New Orleans, who was starting to turn the corner after an atrocious start to the season. The team is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five and both losses came by a combined three points.
Sacramento isn’t a world beater but it’s on the cusp of making the playoffs and DeMarcus Cousins continues to wreak havoc on all frontcourts. The Kings have dropped two in a row and the second one was expected on zero days rest at Portland this past Tuesday. Prior to that setback, Sacramento was 4-1 in its previous five road games and two of those wins came against OKC and the Clippers.
New Orleans dropped Sacramento 109-97as a 6½-point road underdog earlier this month on Jan. 13. Including this win, the Pelicans have won three straight and four of the last five against the Kings. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 over this stretch.
As of early Thursday morning, Sacramento opened as a two-point road favorite and its gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in that role this season.
Chicago (25-19 SU, 17-27 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (9-38 SU, 20-26-1 ATS)
Another game where the opener was delayed due to injuries and not for nothing but does the status of Derrick Rose (hamstring) or Kobe Bryant (shoulder) even matter?
Chicago opened as an 8½-point road favorite over Los Angeles and the total is sitting at 202½. The Bulls have gone 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS when laying points as visitors this season.
This will be the first of seven straight road games for the Bulls and you have to believe that head coach Fred Hoiberg will press his team tonight, especially since they’ve dropped three of four.
L.A. has dropped seven straight and six of those defeats came by double digits. The Lakers showed some fight on Tuesday against the Mavericks, but still lost 92-90 as 6½-point ‘dogs.
This will be the first meeting between the pair this season. The Bulls have won six of the last eight against the Lakers but one of those losses came last season at the Staples Center when the Purple and Gold captured a 123-118 win over Chicago.
While the Bulls are clearly better than Los Angeles, the Lakers have captured six of their nine wins this season against the Eastern Conference and own a 6-10 SU and 11-5 ATS mark in non-conference opponents.
Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
NEW YORK KNICKS (22-25) at TORONTO RAPTORS (30-15)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Raptors -10.5, Total 200.5
The Raptors will be going for their 10th straight victory when they host the struggling Knicks on Thursday.
The Knicks have not played well recently and are coming into this one after losing 128-122 as nine-point home underdogs against the Thunder on Tuesday. New York has lost three straight games and the team shot under 40% from the field in the two contests before facing Oklahoma City. The Knicks must put it together offensively or they will really have trouble against the Raptors.
Toronto has won nine straight games and the team has scored over 100 points in seven consecutive games. The Raptors have been playing very efficient basketball, shooting 45% or better in six of the past nine contests. These teams met earlier in the season and the Knicks ended up winning 111-109 as 7.5-point road underdogs.
The Raptors are 5-4 SU in this head-to-head series over the past three seasons, but the Knicks are 6-3 ATS in those games. One thing favoring New York in this game is the fact that the team is 8-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by three or more per game this season.
The Raptors, however, are 61-48 ATS when facing teams with a losing record over the past three seasons. SF Carmelo Anthony (Knee) is out for the Knicks in this game and PG Kyle Lowry (Wrist) is questionable for the Raptors, who are already without SF DeMarre Carroll (Knee) indefinitely.
The Knicks have lost three straight games and the team is really missing SF Carmelo Anthony (21.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.0 APG). Anthony is one of the best scorers in the NBA and the attention he demands offensively takes a ton of pressure off of his teammates.
Since Anthony isn't playing, then SG Arron Afflalo (13.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG) will need to step it up for New York. Afflalo has really struggled from the field over the past three games, going 10-for-36 from the floor and 3-for-10 from the outside. Afflalo is the focal point of the Knicks offense when Anthony isn’t on the floor and he must be more efficient against Toronto on Thursday.
Another guy that must play well for the Knicks in this one is PF Kristaps Porzingis (14.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.0 BPG). Over the past five games, Porzingis is averaging 14.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG and 2.2 BPG. He has been on fire from the outside, shooting 41.7% from three and hitting two in each of the past five games as well. He did, however, struggle the last time he faced the Raptors.
Porzingis had just eight points and six boards in the last meeting with Toronto and he has to be better than that in order for the Knicks to steal a win on the road.
The Knicks aren’t the only team dealing with an injury, as PG Kyle Lowry (20.9 PPG, 6.4 APG, 5.0 RPG, 2.2 SPG) had to exit Toronto’s win over Washington early. Lowry had been playing extremely well, scoring 29 points on 8-for-14 shooting from the field against the Wizards. He has a major advantage in quickness over all of the Knicks’ guards and it would be a very tough loss if he cannot go on Thursday.
SG DeMar DeRozan (23.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.1 APG) will have an even bigger role for Toronto if Lowry can’t play in this game. DeRozan lit up the Knicks the last time these teams met, finishing with 29 points in 39 minutes of action. He also happens to be averaging 26.4 PPG over the past five contests and has hit seven threes in the past three games. DeRozan does not normally take a lot of outside shots, but if he can start hitting them consistently then he will be extremely tough to cover moving forward.
It would really help him if C Jonas Valanciunas (12.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG) can come through with a big performance on Thursday. Valanciunas is averaging 13.4 PPG and 11.4 RPG over the past five contests and has really controlled the paint on both ends of the floor. If he can have a big game offensively then the Raptors will have a good chance of winning, even if Lowry is out.
CHICAGO BULLS (25-19) at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (9-38)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Chicago -8.5, Total 200.5
The Lakers will be looking to prevent an eight-game losing streak when the team hosts the Bulls on Thursday.
The Bulls have not played the way they are capable of recently, losing 89-84 as 6.5-point home favorites against the Heat on Monday for their seventh loss in the past 10 games. Chicago just has not been consistent offensively, shooting less than 45% from the field in eight of the past 10 games. The Bulls will need to find a way to score more efficiently soon or they will continue to slide in the Eastern Conference standings.
The Lakers, meanwhile, have now lost seven straight games after losing 92-90 as 6.5-point home underdogs against the Mavericks on Tuesday. Los Angeles has not been playing well defensively as of late, allowing 110.0 PPG over the course of the losing streak.
The most recent meeting between these two teams was Jan. 29, 2015, when the Lakers beat the Bulls 123-118 as 10-point home underdogs. The Bulls are 3-1 SU in this head-to-head series over the past three seasons, but the teams have split wins ATS in those contests.
There are some trends worth noting in this game that work against each team significantly. Los Angeles is just 4-12 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season. Chicago, meanwhile, is 5-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
PG Derrick Rose (Hamstring) is probable for the Bulls, who are without PF Nikola Mirotic (Appendix), C Joakim Noah (Shoulder), PG Kirk Hinrich (Quad) and SG Mike Dunleavy (Back) indefinitely. For the Lakers, SG Kobe Bryant (Shoulder) is doubtful and SG Lou Williams (Respiratory) is questionable.
The Bulls are in a bit of a funk right now, but they have a good opportunity to get back into the win column with a meeting with the Lakers on Thursday. SG Jimmy Butler (22.3 PPG,5.3 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.7 SPG) is going to need to have a big performance for his team in this one. Butler is averaging just 16.5 PPG over the past two games and that is not going to be enough for Chicago. He is this team’s best offensive weapon and will need to find a way to get buckets against the Lakers on Thursday.
PG Derrick Rose (15.3 PPG, 4.5 APG) will also need to come up with a solid performance in this one. Rose had scored at least 20 points in three straight games before having just 12 against the Cavaliers last Saturday and following that up with four points in a game in which he got hurt against the Heat in. Chicago needs a healthy Rose playing at a high level or the team will not get as far as it wants to this season.
C Pau Gasol (16.6 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 2.1 BPG) will be a big part of the Bulls’ offense in this game. Gasol has been on fire recently, averaging 20.7 PPG and 12.7 RPG over the past three contests. The Lakers do not have a match for him inside and he should be able to dominate his former team on Thursday.
The Lakers have been miserable all season, but the team has been getting some excellent play from its young players in spurts.
If Los Angeles is going to upset Chicago on Thursday then it will need those young guys to play at a high level. The players who will really need to show up are PG D’Angelo Russell (12.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.2 SPG) and SG Jordan Clarkson (15.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.2 SPG). Russell has been playing a lot better for the Lakers recently, averaging 15.4 PPG over the past five contests.
He is shooting 50.8% from the field in that span and will need to be productive in this one. Clarkson, meanwhile, had a huge game against the Mavericks on Tuesday. He finished that one with 18 points, seven assists and six rebounds. If he can continue to impact the game in all aspects then it will really help this Lakers team.
PF Julius Randle (10.6 PPG, 9.6 RPG) is another young guy that Los Angeles will be counting on against Chicago. He was excellent against the Mavericks, finishing with 16 points, 11 boards and two blocks. He finally showed some intensity on the defensive end and will need to keep doing that moving forward.