Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
We touched on a total trend in last Thursday’s edition of “Inside the Paint” and it cashed. The same angle (see below) is in play again tonight and so is another great NBA betting system, which is real simple.
Play against home favorites off a road trip of three or more games
This particular look in the Association has been mentioned in betting circles for years and you’re basically expecting the home squad to have a letdown or layover after a long roadie. While the angle isn’t perfect, it’s very profitable if you pick your spots.
When I say that, I still believe you should start your handicapping with the opening number, then you can dissect the matchup, current form, injuries and head-to-head history for each club. From there, you can point to trends and angles which may lead you to press or pass all together.
For the above angle, it comes into play for both games on TNT this Thursday.
Oklahoma City (34-11 SU, 26-18 ATS) will host Memphis (29-15 SU, 26-18 ATS) and the defending Western Conference champions will be returning home from a six-game road trip. Truth be told, the Thunder just played nine of their last 10 on the road and they went 7-3 during that stretch.
In the late-night affair, Golden State (28-17 SU, 26-18 ATS) will be playing Dallas (19-26 SU, 25-20 ATS) from the Bay Area after just completing a four-game swing against Eastern Conference foes. Since Golden State is dealing with a handful of key injuries, I wouldn’t advise picking the side on this matchup.
The Thunder opened as an eight-point home favorite over Memphis and that line is much higher when the two teams met in the first month of the season. In that contest, the Grizzlies beat the Thunder 107-97 as a 5½-point road underdog on Nov. 14. The game changed gears in the second quarter as Memphis outscored OKC by 21 points (36-15). The key factor for the Grizzlies was their bench, which outscored the Thunder’s reserves 31-13. Quincy Pondexter led Memphis with 13 of those 31 points but he won’t be action tonight, due to a knee injury. Also, this matchup almost had a nasty brawl at the end of the game when the Grizzlies’ Zach Randolph and Thunder’s Kendrick Perkins got into a heated argument, which carried over to the locker room.
Despite that loss to the Grizzlies, the Thunder has produced a 19-3 SU and 14-8 ATS record at home. The other losses came to the Hawks (95-104) and Nets (93-110).
As I mentioned above, you have to pick your spots with the above betting angle and break it down further, which I did with the help of VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers. He dug up the numbers for me from his database and they’re eye-opening so far.
Home Favorites playoing off a five-game or more road trip
Date Home Away SU ATS
Nov. 17 Cleveland (-3) 95 Dallas 103 Loss Loss
Nov. 19 Utah (-6.5) 102 Houston 91 Win Win
Nov. 21 Miami (-9.5) 113 Milwaukee 106 Win Loss
Nov. 26 Chicago (-3.5) 92 Milwaukee 93 Loss Loss
Dec. 1 San Antonio (-6) 99 Memphis 95 Win Loss
Dec. 6 Phoenix (-4) 94 Dallas 97 Loss Loss
Dec. 8 Portland (-7) 80 Sacramento 99 Loss Loss
Dec. 14 Denver (-1) 99 Memphis 94 Win Win
Dec. 18 Golden State (-7.5) 103 New Orleans 96 Win Loss
Dec. 26 Utah (-4) 83 Golden State 96 Loss Loss
Jan. 8 Philadelphia (-1.5) 89 Brooklyn 109 Loss Loss
Jan. 23 Miami (-10) 123 Toronto 116 Win Loss
Jan. 25 Washington (-6) 114 Minnesota 101 Win Win
Jan. 31 Oklahoma City (-8) Memphis - -
Thirteen times this season, we’ve had teams listed as favorites in their first game back of a road trip of five games or more. The home team has gone 7-6 straight up but just 3-10 against the spread. Fading the favorite has produced a 77% mark and that’s with Memphis pending tonight.
The Grizzlies aren’t as good as last year’s squad and not even close to the one two seasons ago, but they play a defensive style that frustrates opponents. On the season, Memphis is a respectable 12-8 both SU and ATS on the road.
Dallas at Golden State: The Mavericks are 7-17 SU and 14-10 ATS on the road and that includes a gut-wrenching 106-104 loss to Portland on Tuesday. Despite the poor record away from home, the Mavericks are starting to play better. The Mavs are 6-4 SU and more importantly, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The offense has busted 100-plus points nine times during this stretch, which has helped the ‘over’ produce an 8-2 record.
With that being said, should bettors expect another shootout tonight in Golden State?
2012-13 TNT Late-Night Games
Date Matchup Total Result
Nov. 1 Oklahoma City 84 San Antonio 86 204 Under
Nov. 8 L.A. Clippers 103 Portland 90 201.5 Under
Nov. 15 Miami 98 Denver 93 202.5 Under
Nov. 29 Denver 105 Golden State 106 199.5 Over
Dec. 6 Dallas 97 Phoenix 94 205 Under
Dec. 13 San Antonio 90 Portland 98 200.5 Under
Dec. 20 Miami 110 Dallas 95 203 Over
Dec. 27 Boston 77 L.A. Clippers 106 189.5 Under
Jan. 10 Miami 90 Portland 92 195 Under
Jan. 17 Miami 99 L.A. Lakers 90 207 Under
Jan. 24 L.A. Clippers 88 Phoenix 93 191 Under
Jan. 31 Dallas at Golden State - -
Looking at the above table, you can see the ‘under’ has gone 9-2 in the late-night game on TNT this season. Sooner or later, this should start to swing the other way and it could be tonight with the pace these teams play.
Even with a short-handed squad on Tuesday, Golden State put up 108 points albeit against the defenseless Cavaliers. In the last seven games, the Warriors have posted 100-plus points in six of them and not surprisingly, the ‘over’ has cashed in six of those contests.
These teams met in Dallas on Nov. 19 and Golden State earned a 105-101 victory while the combined 206 points went ‘over’ the closing number of 200.
Due to the injuries on Golden State, an overnight number wasn’t posted.
NBA TNT Doubleheader: Grizzlies at Thunder, Mavs at Warriors
By Covers.com
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder (-8, 191.5)
The Oklahoma City Thunder have revenge on their minds as they prepare to host the revamped Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday. The Thunder opened a double-digit lead in their last encounter Nov. 14, only to get outscored 36-14 in the second quarter en route to a 107-97 defeat. They'll face a Grizzlies club that made a major trade Wednesday night, shipping Rudy Gay to Toronto while acquiring Ed Davis from the Raptors and Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye from Detroit.
The move was designed to allow Memphis to remain competitive while reducing its salary cap burden. The departure of Gay leaves a void the Grizzlies hope Prince will fill, while Davis and Daye are expected to provide depth behind Prince and incumbent power forward Zach Randolph. They'll face a well-rested Thunder team that hasn't hit the court since dropping a 105-96 decision to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. The defeat concluded a 3-3 road trip for Oklahoma City, which included narrow losses to Denver and Golden State.
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (29-15, 26-17-1 ATS): Rumblings had persisted for days that Gay would be moved out of Memphis, where he had spent his first six-plus seasons. The move finally came to fruition Wednesday night, giving the Grizzlies added depth and allowing them to shed Gay's $16.46-million salary. Gay took to Twitter to thank Memphis fans for their support. "Thanks to the fans and my teammates in Memphis for the memories," he wrote. "Came in a 19 year old kid now leaving a 26 year old man ... thank you!" The Grizzlies remain very much in the hunt for the Southeast Division crown, just 5 1/2 games back of first-place San Antonio.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (34-11, 26-17-2 ATS): Oklahoma City suffered numerous lapses during its ho-hum West Coast trek, and head coach Scott Brooks wouldn't use the grueling trip as an excuse for his team's uneven performance. "It was a long road trip, but everybody has the same amount of road games," Brooks told the Oklahoman. " It's not like we're the only team that had a long road trip." Teams exposed the Thunder's shaky defense, which was torched for an average of 106 points during the six-game trek - a stretch that increased Oklahoma City's season points against average from 95.9 to 97.3
TRENDS:
* Over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Thunder superstar Kevin Durant averages 27.9 points and 7.4 rebounds in 18 career games against the Grizzlies.
2. Gay averaged 17.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and two assists in 479 career games with Memphis.
3. Oklahoma City has won six of the past nine meetings but has dropped the previous two, both at home.
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors (-4, 208)
The Golden State Warriors salvaged the final two games of their road trip despite being without a slew of key contributors. They are hoping to have some of those players back when they return home to host the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. Stephen Curry, Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut and Carl Landry all sat out on Tuesday, but the Warriors leaned on Klay Thompson, David Lee and Jarrett Jack to pull out an easy win in Cleveland.
The Mavericks suffered a crushing loss on Tuesday but have been playing well of late with six wins in the last nine games. Dirk Nowitzki scored a season-high 26 points in the last game and is slowly regaining his form after sitting out the first eight weeks with a knee injury. Dallas did not have the depth to completely make up for Nowitzki’s absence but the Warriors have several players they can go to for scoring when one or more players have to sit out. Thompson’s 32 points on Tuesday marked a career high.
ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (19-26, 25-20-0 ATS): Nowitzki’s presence has helped the entire offense for Dallas, which has put up 109.4 points over the last nine games. Nowitzki hit a go-ahead 3-pointer late at Portland on Tuesday but LaMarcus Aldridge responded at the other end and O.J. Mayo was called for a charge with 1.5 seconds left, allowing the Trail Blazers to score the winning basket. Each of the Mavericks’ three losses in the last nine games have come against strong playoff contenders in Portland, Oklahoma City and San Antonio, and each has come down to the last few possessions. As well as the offense has played, the defense has been equally as poor. Dallas ranks near the bottom of the NBA in points allowed and was outscored 62-45 in the second half of the Portland loss.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (28-17, 26-18-1 ATS): Golden State sat Bogut (ankle) on the second night of a back-to-back Tuesday for precautionary reasons after he had made a strong return from a 38-game absence the previous night. Curry (ankle), Barnes (calf) and Landry (shoulder) were each hurt in the win over the Toronto Raptors on Monday. None of the injuries appeared serious at the time, but all three are being monitored and the players are listed as day-to-day. Curry torched the Mavericks for 31 points and nine assists in a 105-101 overtime win at Dallas on Nov. 19, while Barnes added 20 points and 12 rebounds in that victory. The Warriors hit each of their first nine 3-point attempts against the Cavaliers while Jack and Thompson spread the floor. That opened the inside for Lee, who recorded his 19th game of at least 20 points and 10 rebounds while also chipping in eight assists. Lee, who was named an All-Star reserve last week, has recorded three straight double-doubles with at least five assists in each game.
TRENDS:
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Golden State.
* Mavericks are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Golden State.
* Road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
* Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Dallas C Chris Kaman (concussion) sat out Tuesday and has been ruled out indefinitely.
2. Lee leads the NBA with 29 double-doubles.
3. Nowitzki has averaged 22.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in 51 career games against Golden State.
NBA Point Spreads and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
The first game of tonight’s NBA doubleheader on TNT matches up two of the best against-the-spread teams in the league. The Memphis Grizzlies, who are covering at a 26-17-1 clip, visit the Oklahoma City Thunder, who sport a nearly-identical 26-17-2 record ATS.
Of course, when two teams that cash at nearly a 60 percent rate meet one another, it makes the game that much more difficult to handicap!
The Grizzlies, who traded leading scorer Rudy Gay to the Raptors on Wednesday, are tops in the NBA in scoring defense, allowing just 89.5 points per game.
But the Thunder are finally returning home after playing nine of their last 10 on the road – they beat the Nuggets by 20 in the one home game they played over that stretch. And after three-days’ rest, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Co. will be ready for this nationally-televised affair.
The Thunder will find extra motivation in the form of revenge – Memphis won in OKC, 107-97, back in the first month of the season.
NBA Trends:
* The Grizzlies have covered six of their last eight road games. The Thunder has covered their past four games following a loss. The Thunder has gone 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games against winning teams. The road team has covered the last five meetings between the Grizzlies and Thunder. The Thunder is -10 with a total of 190.
* The Mavericks have covered nine of their last 10 games and eight straight when playing on one day of rest. The Warriors have covered four straight against teams with a losing record and four straight against Western Conference teams. The Warriors and Mavericks have gone OVER the total in seven of their last nine meetings. The Warriors are -3 with a total of 205.5.
NBA Injuries:
* Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (ankle) is questionable tonight.
* Mavericks center Chris Kaman (concussion) is OUT indefinitely.
* Warriors guard Stephen Curry (ankle) is questionable tonight.
* Warriors forward Carl Landry (shoulder) is questionable.
*Warriors forward Harrison Barnes (calf) is questionable.