GOLDEN STATE (88 - 16) at CLEVELAND (71 - 30) - 6/16/2016, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-43 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 65-45 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 46-33 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 9-8 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-6 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE vs. CLEVELAND
Golden State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Golden State
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
Golden State at Cleveland
Golden State: 45-73 ATS on road after scoring 60 or more in the first half last game
Cleveland: 20-9 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days
StatFox Super Situations
GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog 32-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% | 21.0 units ) 3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )
GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 33-4 over the last 5 seasons. ( 89.2% | 25.7 units ) 9-3 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.1 units )
GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 very good shooting team - shooting >=48% on the season 197-118 since 1997. ( 62.5% | 67.2 units ) 14-9 this year. ( 60.9% | 4.1 units )
NBA Knowledge
Cleveland-Golden State
Green is back for this game, which makes Warriors better on defense; Golden State is 4-5 on road in playoffs, with four of those five losses coming in Game 3's. Cleveland's loss in Game 4 was their first loss in eight home games in playoffs. Five of last seven Golden State games, four of last six Cavalier games stayed under the total. Warriors are 8-2 in last 10 games with Cleveland (under 6-3-1).
In the playoffs this spring, under is 50-32-1
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1
Final: Favorites: 3-2, Over: 2-3
Armadillosports.com
Books gear up for Game 6
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
NBA Finals bettors have a lot to think about before wagering on Thursday's Game 6 at the Quicken Loans Center where do-or-die Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite over Golden State at most Las Vegas sports books.
Can the Cavs duplicate the insanely efficient Game 6 performance where they won 112-97 to cut the Warriors lead to 3-2. Or do the Warriors step up with Draymond Green back in the lineup and win a Game 6 and an NBA Championship at Cleveland for the second consecutive year?
In Monday's game the Cavs played to the high level most saw when they began the playoffs on a 10-0 run. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both scored 41-points in the runaway win becoming the only duo in NBA Finals to score more than 40 in a game.
They didn't seem to miss -- especially early on -- combining to make 33 of 54 shots while letting Kevin Love shoot only five times (2 pts in 33 mins). James and also chipped in with 18 boards and seven assists in a game he was obviously charged up for.
So what are bettors on the strip saying?
MGM Resorts sports book hub director Jeff Stoneback already heard people talking when he came into work Tuesday morning. "A regular bettor with us came up to me this morning saying 'I don't know who to play for the next game."
There's a feeling that nobody can beat the Cavs if Kyrie and LeBron do what they did in Game 5, but the same can be said for Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry. Which duo does the best? And does momentum carry over into Cleveland with a city that will be going absolutely wild as they hope to win its first pro sports championship since 1964. "We're still alive, we believe".
After the home team won and covered the first three games, the last two have been won by the road underdogs. Stoneback said bettors were on the Cavs in Game 6 and they were even taking +5.5 when there were +6 and +6.5s available around town. He said they were a small loser after getting late Warriors money to help balance the risk.
An area where the MGM books aren't balanced is the series price.
"We had lots of people playing the Cavs adjusted series price taking 10-to-1 prior to Game 5," said Stoneback.
"It's a big loss for us; we had over $100,000 worth of liability on it with Monday's action alone."
Because of that risk Stoneback wanted to at least re-open the adjusted price Tuesday morning lower than the market to attract a little more Warriors money.
The Westgate SuperBook had been at Warriors -500/+400 and dropped to -450/+375 Tuesday morning and the Wynn was at -425/+325.
Stoneback re-opened the price at his 10 MGM books along the strip at -420/+340, saying "we can't open it any higher."
The MGM staff will monitor the series price with the goal of not wanting any more Cavs action and attempt to attract Warriors money to balance things out.
Look for them to stay lower throughout the next few days and it's the place to wager at if believing the Warriors will close this thing out within the next two games. Green, who was suspended for Game 5, could be just the boost Golden State needs.
Since posted Game 6 with the Cavs at home being -2 and 207.5 at, Stoneback said he's "seen very little action, like only a couple thousand."
NBA Finals Game 6 Preview
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Golden State at Cleveland (-2/207.5)
The NBA Finals are back in Cleveland. Considering where things stood last time they were in town last Friday night, that’s a mild upset, but don’t believe for a second the Cavs are playing with house money.
No, there’s genuine pressure. Not only are they two-point favorites to get the series back to Oakland for a Game 7, but a loss would mean that the Warriors would be celebrating another title one year to the date of last year’s conquest.
A loss would not only make LeBron James 0-for-3 in NBA Finals with his hometown team, but it would also mean that all three times, the visitors celebrated winning the title in a city that hasn’t claimed one of their own in any major sport since 1964. That’s cold, but very Cleveland-like.
Worse yet, Stephen Curry would claim a second straight title in a year where he was named regular-season MVP, dancing and partying it up at LeBron’s house while joining him, Michael Jordan and Bill Russell as the only players in league history to accomplish that feat in consecutive seasons.
James and Kyrie Irving come in after carving out their own piece of history, becoming the first teammates to each top the 40-point mark in the NBA’s championship round. They combined to shoot 33-for-54 (61 pct) against the Draymond Green-less Warriors, doing so while helping the Cavs buckle down defensively in allowing just 13 fourth-quarter points in the 112-97 win.
“They’re special players. They’re capable of having special nights,” said Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue. “We know that, we’ve seen it before. If they didn’t have it going then we’d have run other things to get other guys involved, but with those two guys having a special night, we rode them and they came through for us.”
Although returning home should help them maintain a rhythm, Green’s return from suspension means the Warriors will have their defensive driving force back in the fold. Without his presence helping Andre Iguodala guard James and communicating on switches, the Warriors were unable to get the stops they needed to maintain a rhythm at both ends. Head coach Steve Kerr made no secret of his disappointment with how Golden State responded without him in Game 5, but conceded everyone is obviously better with Green on the floor.
Green felt he let teammates down regardless of whether he agreed with the decision, calling it “awful” that he missed the game and referring to himself as a “terrible teammate” for putting his guys in that situation.
“I owe it to my teammates to come back and give all that I have, all that I can do to better the situation,” Green said. “I have a strong belief that if I played Game 5 we win, but I didn’t because I put myself in a situation where I wasn’t able to play.”
Curry’s rough shooting night (8-for-21) compounded the issue, as did Harrison Barnes finishing 2-for-14 while playing 38 minutes, the most he’s played all series due to Green’s absence. Losing Andrew Bogut to a knee injury after just eight minutes of action didn’t help matters, throwing Kerr’s rotations further out of whack. Little went right for Golden State, spoiling what Curry felt would’ve been a dream ending where cameras would’ve memorably followed Green as he ran over from the Oakland Coliseum to celebrate a championship. Instead, the Warriors’ emotional leader will have to try and make up for the missed opportunity while reining in his temper since there would be dire circumstances if he’s whistled for another flagrant foul or two technicals.
“He knows that if he gets another flagrant he misses Game 7. He’s well aware of that so I’d be shocked if anything happened on that front,” said Kerr. “He feels bad enough as it is about missing Game 5. He’s not going to put himself at risk of missing another game.”
It’s imperative that he remains on the floor since Bogut has been ruled out for the next 6-to-8 weeks with a left knee sprain. It remains to be seen how Kerr chooses to start the game without his center, staying close to status quo by bumping up Festus Ezeli or going small right from the jump by leaving Iguodala in the starting lineup and putting Green as his primary big.
Whether they see it right from the onset or not, the Cavs are prepared to see Green at center when it matters most.
“Their money lineup is going small with Green at the five,” said Lue, “so there’s not really a big difference in preparing for that.
Although that lineup isn’t necessarily a lock to produce a fast pace since it’s among their top defensive group, the Warriors are 1-4 this postseason when held under 100 points, so they won’t shy away if the Cavs opt to get up and down on their home floor.
Depending on when and where you bet the total in Game 5, you could’ve won, lost or pushed. Most betting shops closed at 209 and that’s exactly where the score finished. The ‘over’ was definitely the right side since the score was knotted 61-61 at halftime, but 32 combined fourth-quarter points turned some expected winning tickets into losers.
Game 6 opened at 207½ and that number has held steady as of Wednesday, climbing to 208 at some spots. VegasInsider.com NBA Totals expert Chris David weighs in on Thursday’s matchup with his quick handicap.
“The Draymond Green effect not only played a factor defensively in Game 5 but his absence really screwed up Golden State offensively as they settled for too many jumpers. The Warriors took a series-high 42 attempts from 3-point land in Game 5 and only made 14 of them. As a team, Golden State shot 36 percent from the field and only scored 13 in the final quarter yet they still finished with 97 points,” said David. “Holding the Warriors under 100 points in a game doesn’t happen often. Including Game 5, the feat has only been accomplished 12 times this season.
“Looking back at the 11 situations, Golden State rebounded with an average score 118.4 points per game. In this year’s playoffs, the Warriors were held under the century mark three times and they posted 120, 104 and 108 in the next game, all victories as well. In case you’re wondering, Golden State has gone 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread after being held under 100 and the ‘over’ went 7-4 in those games. It’s hard to go against these seasonal trends and I’m going to buy Golden State’s team total ‘over’ 102½ in Game 6. I would lean to the game total going ‘over’ as well with the series wrapping up.”
The Cavs will likely do everything in their power to avoid getting bogged down, since they’re 0-3 in the series when failing to top the century mark. They’re 8-0 at home this postseason when topping 100 points and lost Game 4 108-97 the only time they didn’t.
On that note, Golden State has made an NBA-record 276 3-pointers during these playoffs, while Cleveland has made 242, now good for second all-time. This may very well be a situation where the team that strokes it best from beyond the arc survives. Normally you wouldn’t want to challenge the Warriors at their own game, but the Cavs have seen role players Kevin Love, J.R. Smith and Channing Frye find the range at home enough to trust they’ll hold their own.
Live by the 3, die by 3. Wish there was a total set on how many times you might here that old adage uttered on Thursday night because the over would be a lock.
The Cavs are looking to become the third team among the last 33 to have fallen behind 3-1 in an NBA Finals to force a Game 7. The 1951 Knicks and ’66 Lakers managed to force a deciding game. It hasn’t been done in 50 years. No NBA team has ever rallied to win it all after backing themselves into that corner.
Game 6 Props - Best Bets
VegasInsider.com
Chris David: 8-3 (+1405)
Tony Mejia: 10-5 (+1080)
Kevin Rogers: 8-6 (+20)
Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 6 below.
Odds & Props provided by Sportsbook.ag
Chris David
2 Units – Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17½ (-115)
Harrison Barnes is a tough player to figure out and he’s been very inconsistent in this year’s playoffs but for whatever reason, he’s produced better numbers on the road versus Cleveland. In the first two road battles versus the Cavaliers, he combined for 29 points, rebounds and assists in Game 3 and a total of 24 in Game 4. He’s coming off his second worst shooting performance (2-of-14) of the playoffs in Game 5 and I believe he bounces back in this spot. For what it’s worth, Barnes averaged 15.3 PPG in the regular season in games played on Thursday, which was the highest daily average.
2 Units – Under Kevin Love Total Points+Rebounds 17½ (-105)
After putting up 17 points and 13 boards in the opener of this series, Kevin Love has fallen off the map due to the concussion injury and more importantly the matchup against Golden State. Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue knows he’s a liability defensively and his minutes have been limited, more now with the Warriors likely going even smaller with no Bogut. If the game gets out of hand, Love will be subbed out and could be watching his final game in Cleveland from the bench.
1 Unit – Richard Jefferson will make a 3-Point Field Goal (+180)
In the 14 playoff games that Jefferson has attempted a 3-point shot, he’s made at least one in nine of those games. Since my above prop is leaning to Love being replaced by Jefferson, I’m going to double-up and hope RJ hoists at least one or two from 3-point land. He’s shooting 41 percent from the playoffs and that’s a solid number to back, especially with a return close to 2/1 odds.
Kevin Rogers
2 Units - Under Draymond Green Total Points 15 (-115)
Green returns from his suspension, but struggled in both games at Quicken Loans Arena. In the two road games at Cleveland, Green scored a total of 15 points, while failing to hit a three-pointer in eight attempts. Green will make more of an impact defensively on James and should grab double-digit rebounds, but not score more than 15 points.
2 Units - Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17½ (-115)
For as bad as Green has been in Cleveland in this series, Barnes has been the opposite. The former UNC standout stunk in Game 5 by shooting 2-of-14 from the floor for 5 points, but averaged 16 points per game in two games at the Q. Barnes pulled down eight rebounds in each of those games, as he should have a nice bounce-back in Game 6.
1 Unit - Over Kyrie Irving Total Made Free Throws 3½ (-125)
Irving blew up for 41 points in Game 5, while attempting at least 24 shots in each of the last three games. After attempting 12 free throws in Game 1, Irving has been to the line only 10 times in the last four games. However, Irving is going to get plenty of opportunities to score and is an excellent free throw shooter, so if he can attack the basket in Game 6, the 'over' should cash.
Tony Mejia
2 Units – Over LeBron James Rebounds+Assists 19½ (-115)
After a dominant Game 5 on the glass in which he grabbed 16 boards, James isn't likely to surpass that number, but should break into double-digits in assists, surpassing his series average and likely notching a triple-double, win or lose.
1.5 Units – Over Stephen Curry Points 28 (-115)
After a brutal Game 3 where he wasn't mentally ready at the onset, Curry played his best, quieting critics as well as the Cleveland crowd. Expect him to at least match his regular-season average of 30 points here.
1.5 Units – Over Andre Iguodala Rebounds+Assists 10½ (-115)
Even with Draymond Green back, the Warriors should get plenty out of Andre Iguodala, who had 11 boards and six dimes in Game 5 and will again be involved in all facets off the bench.
NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5, 207.5)
The Cleveland Cavaliers needed historic performances from Kyrie Irving and LeBron James to stay alive in the NBA Finals, and the two stars delivered. James and Irving will try to follow up their incredible efforts when Draymond Green returns to the lineup and the Golden State Warriors visit the Cavaliers with another chance to close out the series in Game 6 on Thursday.
Green was hit with a one-game suspension after the NBA deemed his hit to James’ groin in Game 4 a flagrant foul, and the Warriors defense was noticeably less cohesive without its leader. “I thought our defensive communication was lacking,” Golden State coach Steve Ker told reporters. “We had some plays where we didn’t pick up in transition and we had some cross matches that we didn’t identify and they got free, especially Kyrie, and made a lot of shots in transition where we just weren’t there.” James and Irving became the first pair of teammates in NBA Finals history to score at least 40 points in the same game when they both finished with 41 in Game 5, and Irving went 9-of-14 from the field in the second half as Cleveland pulled away. "You've got a guy like this who is very special," James told reporters of Irving. "It's probably one of the greatest performances I've ever seen live."
LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as slight 2-point home favorites and were quickly bet to -2.5 and have been at that number ever since. The total has yet to move off the opening number 207.5. Check out the complete line history for Game 6 here.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State’s defense took a second hit in addition to the loss of Green when anchor Andrew Bogut went down early in the third quarter of Game 5 with a knee injury. Bogut did not return to the game and underwent an MRI exam that revealed bone bruises that will force him out for the rest of the Finals but will not require surgery. The Warriors could make up for the loss with a little help on the offensive end from MVP Steph Curry, who went 8-of-21 from the field on Monday and is averaging 22.2 points on 42.4 percent shooting in the series – down from a league-best 30.1 points on 50.4 percent in the regular season.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Cleveland is trying to become the first team ever to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals and needs another blistering effort from Irving and James, who combined to account for 97 of the team’s 112 points in Game 5 including assists to other teammates. "Same thing,” Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters of the plan for Game 6 at home. “Continue to be aggressive, continue to bring physicality and continue to attack.” Cleveland got forward Kevin Love back from a concussion in Game 5 but the former All-Star was limited to two points on 1-of-5 shooting in 33 minutes.
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.
* Warriors are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Warriors last nine versus Eastern Conference opponents.
* Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six games following a ATS win.
CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the slight edge to the Warriors with 53 percent of wagers taking the +2.5 and Golden State. As for the total, 58 percent of bettors are on the over.
Cavs face must-win Game 6
By SSportsbook.ag
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (88-16) at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (71-30)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -2.5, Total: 207.5
The Cavaliers will be hoping to force a Game 7 when they host the Warriors in Game 6 on Thursday.
Cleveland seemed like it was heading towards a Game 5 loss in this series, but PF Draymond Green was suspended and the Cavaliers took advantage of it. With no Green, the Warriors were vulnerable defensively and Cleveland was able to win Game 5 112-97 as a 5.5-point underdog at Oracle Arena.
The Cavaliers shot 53.0% from the floor in the game and they also held the Warriors to just 36.4% shooting. They’ll be hoping they can keep that up when they host Golden State on Thursday, but Green will be back in the lineup for this contest.
C Andrew Bogut (Knee), however, is out for the remainder of the series for Golden State, so not all is well for the Warriors.
One trend that does favor the team is that Golden State is 23-8 ATS when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points over the past two seasons.
The Warriors are also 14-4 ATS after having lost two of their past three games over the past two seasons.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are an impressive 20-9 ATS when playing only their second game in five days. They also happen to be completely healthy coming into this pivotal Game 6.
The Warriors had complete control of this series after winning Game 4 in Cleveland, but they were dealt a huge blow with PF Draymond Green (15.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) being suspended in Game 5. Green is the best defender that Golden State has and he is the guy that makes their small-ball lineup so dangerous.
The Warriors lost without him in Game 5, but he’ll be back to give them another shot at winning the championship on Thursday. Green will be well rested coming into the game and he’ll surely play with a ton of passion in this one. It is, however, important that he stays out of foul trouble. With Bogut out, Green will be the guy that plays most of the Warriors’ minutes at center and the team can’t afford to lose him anymore.
The play of PG Stephen Curry (25.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) will also come a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Curry has been miserable in the Finals, shooting just 42.4% from the floor and averaging 4.4 turnovers per game. Golden State needs the MVP to start knocking down shots at a higher clip, but he also needs to take much better care of the ball on Thursday.
One guy that has been doing his job has been SG Klay Thompson (24.7 PPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs). Thompson did everything he could to keep Golden State in Game 5, pouring in 37 points in 41 minutes of action. He’s been knocking down threes consistently and will need to continue to play his solid brand of two-way basketball on Thursday.
The Cavaliers are coming off of a gutsy victory over the Warriors in Game 5 of the Finals and the reason Cleveland was able to win was because of heroic performances from both SF LeBron James (25.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 7.3 APG, 2.3 APG, 1.1 BPG in playoffs) and PG Kyrie Irving (25.3 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs).
James had 41 points, 16 rebounds, seven assists, three blocks and three steals in 43 minutes of action in Game 5. He was an impressive 16-for-30 from the field in that one, but Irving might have been even better.
The young guard poured in 41 points on 17-for-24 shooting from the field in that game and also dished out six assists and had two steals. If Irving can continue to outplay Stephen Curry in this series then it’s extremely possible that the Cavaliers will end up completing the comeback to win this series.
The team will, however, need PF Kevin Love (15.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG in playoffs) to play a bit better on Thursday. He had just two points in 33 minutes of action on Monday and he is capable of playing a lot better than that.