NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, June 1st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Golden State is 12-0 in playoffs, Cleveland 12-1. Teams meet in NBA Finals for third straight year; Cavaliers rallied from down 3-1 LY to win title. Cleveland is 5-2 in last seven series games; they won two of last three games in Oakland, but lost 126-91 here in January. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Cleveland is 7-0 on road in playoffs; they led by 21 in only playoff game they’ve lost this spring. Over is 6-3 in last nine Cavalier games, Golden State covered five of its last six games; they’re 2-4 vs spread at home in playoffs. Warriors’ last five games all went over the total.
Armadillosports.com
Cavs, Warriors meet in Game 1
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The Warriors will be looking to strike first with a victory at home in Game 1 on Thursday.
Both Cleveland and Golden State have been extremely impressive on the road to this epic matchup in the NBA Finals. The Cavaliers dropped just one game before getting here, and the Warriors are currently undefeated in the postseason. This series marks the third straight Finals matchup between Cleveland and Golden State. The Warriors won the first one with both PG Kyrie Irving and PF Kevin Love sidelined, but the Cavaliers mounted an epic 3-1 comeback to defeat Golden State in a Game 7 at Oracle Arena last year. The Warriors will be hoping to erase that painful memory with a series victory here, and that starts with this Game 1 in the same building. When these teams met in Oakland during the regular season, the Warriors won 126-91 as a nine-point home favorite. The Cavaliers did, however, win 109-108 as a 3.5-point underdog in the only other meeting between the teams. That game was, however, in Cleveland. The trends in this game favor Golden State, as the Warriors are 39-20 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points over the past three seasons. They’re also facing a Cavaliers team that is a miserable 3-12 ATS in road games against Western Conference teams this season. The good thing for both of these teams is that they are both healthy entering Game 1. That means there are no excuses for either team just yet.
The Cavaliers believe they have a shot in any game or series as long as SF LeBron James (32.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 7.0 APG, 2.2 SPG, 1.4 BPG; all player stats in postseason) is on the court. That does, however, mean he must play well. James had one seriously awful game in the series against Boston, and the Cavaliers ended up losing that one. He was just 4-for-13 from the floor with 11 points in that game, and he knows that he can’t allow himself to play like that again. The Warriors are a whole other animal, so James will need to be at his absolute best in order to pull off yet another upset over a historically excellent Golden State team. James will also need help from both Irving (24.5 PPG, 5.6 APG, 1.4 SPG) and Love (17.2 PPG, 10.4 RPG) in this series. One of the reasons the Cavaliers were able to beat the Warriors last year was because Irving outplayed Curry in the series. He’ll need to at least hold his own this year as well. Love, meanwhile, has been playing his best basketball as a Cavalier in this postseason. He is rebounding the ball very well, but he is also knocking down his open threes. That will need to continue against Golden State. One last guy to keep an eye on is C Tristan Thompson (9.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG). Thompson has been a monster for the Cavaliers, as he is rebounding everything on both ends of the floor. His ability to run the floor and do a decent job of staying in front of guards makes him the perfect fit to go against the Warriors’ small-ball lineups. The Cavaliers need him in order to get the job done in Game 1 and this series.
The Warriors were up 3-1 in last year’s finals, but PF Draymond Green (13.9 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 1.9 SPG) was suspended for Game 5 and that loss ultimately swung the entire series. Green must stay cool in this series, as he is truly the most valuable player for this Warriors team. He might not be the best, but the Warriors run a lot of their offense through Green and his ability to guard every player on the floor is what makes Golden State a defensive juggernaut. He should see plenty of time guarding LeBron James as well, so he’ll need to be ready to guard and not foul either. The Warriors will then need the absolute best from PG Stephen Curry (28.6 PPG, 5.6 APG, 5.5 RPG, 1.9 SPG), SG Klay Thompson (14.4 PPG, 1.0 SPG), and SF Kevin Durant (25.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.2 BPG). Curry was awful against Cleveland in the Finals last year, and that can’t happen again here. Curry was, however, dealing with some injuries, so he should be a lot better this time around. Thompson should also be better than he has been throughout these playoffs. The Cavs are weakest at the shooting guard position, so Thompson should be a major advantage for the Warriors in this series. And then there’s Durant. Durant wasn’t on the team last year, but it’s an understatement to say that he is a major improvement over Harrison Barnes. Part of the reason the Cavaliers came back last year was because they were able to leave Barnes open and focus on the other Golden State weapons. The presence of a superstar like Durant will drastically change the way these teams play.
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors
The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors have met in the last two NBA Finals, with both teams winning a title. In 2015 Warriors won the series 4-2 (4-2 ATS). In 2016 Cavaliers won, covered 4 of 7 exacting sweet revenge. This season’s version kicks off on Thursday at 09:00 EST in Oakland.
The Cavaliers are 12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS in the postseason including a sparkling 7-0 SU, 5-0-2 ATS on enemy hardwood. The Warriors have been even better overall in second season. Dubs are a perfect 12-0 straight-up thus far with an 8-4 record against the betting line. Here at Oracle Arena Warriors are 6-0 SU but only 2-4 against the betting line.
The teams split their pair of regular season meetings, with each team winning, covering on home hardwood. According to current odds at Bodog.eu the Warriors are -7.0 point home favorites.
NBA Finals Game 1 Preview
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Cleveland at Golden State
Cavs-Warriors III is finally here, arriving as the first-ever NBA Finals matchup played between teams vying for the title three consecutive times. Considering the Celtics and Lakers have run things in multiple decades and are unquestionably still the rivalry to end all rivalries, this is quite the accomplishment.
Now the series just has to live up to the hype to try and salvage what's been by all accounts a dud of a postseason. Fortunately, all the ingredients are there.
Well, most. Steve Kerr won't coach Game 1 and is questionable for the rest of the series as he attempts to overcome lingering side effects from back surgery.
That means Mike Brown will be coaching these Finals against the Cavs, who fired him after deciding he was expendable back in 2010. LeBron James left Cleveland for Miami weeks later.
There are loads of ties that bind in this series. There are tons of driving forces that extend beyond just claiming a ring and going 2-for-3 in this Finals matchup.
Draymond Green feels especially guilty for what transpired after he lost his temper and got himself excluded from a key Game 6 as the Warriors blew a 3-1 series lead last year. That collapse allowed Kevin Durant to feel it was ok to jump ship to the Warriors, which makes this year's task much tougher for LeBron and Co.
Durant has a score to settle, having been beaten by LeBron as a favorite with Oklahoma City on a team that he led which also featured Russell Westbrook and James Harden. That alleviated James' burden in Miami after being upset in the 2011 Finals by Dallas.
Then there's Steph Curry, whose 6-for-19 Game 7 implosion contributed heavily to the 93-89 loss in the series-deciding game. He shot 4-for-14 from 3-point range, a performance that still haunts him. It's easier to forget that he also started poorly in last year's Finals, shooting 4-for-15 in Game 1 despite his Warriors pulling away for a 104-89 win.
Golden State won thanks to its depth, getting a particularly strong game from Shaun Livingston in a 104-89 romp that also featured great efforts from Andre Iguodala and Leandro Barbosa off the bench. All but Barbosa are back, so the noise that this team is weaker due to less depth because they traded Durant is just that - noise.
Game 2 featured a Cavs team determined to lock in defensively and saw them up 21-19 after a quarter, but at home, depth and familiarity played to the Warriors advantage in an easy 110-88 win as they rolled 91-56 the rest of the way. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love combined for 15 points and six rebounds in a no-show that would seem ridiculous at this point given the form they've displayed this postseason and what they've already accomplished in becoming champs for the first time. James led the team in scoring, rebounding and assists that game, but gets significantly more help these days.
The Warriors are a -240 series favorite, which is roughly a 70 percent lean on the series. You get the rationale. Up 3-1 without Durant, a key variable since Harrison Barnes was a liability in the same spot in the lineup, the Dubs have to be favored to win a championship. Golden State is a 7-point favorite for Game 1.
While Love is within his rights to wonder aloud how in the world the defending champs are substantial underdogs defending their own title, there's a method to the madness of bookmakers and experts that are viewing this series without bias.
As far as Game 1 is concerned, the Cavs have little to lose and can experiment with some strategies that should serve them well down the road in what they're expecting will be a long series. Golden State doesn't really have that luxury since a loss would immediately forfeit the homecourt edge that could play such a huge role in deciding a champ.
Although they lost Game 7 on their home floor last season, the opportunity to get off to a strong start in Oakland in addition to the prospect of playing a key Game 5 and potential Game 7 there loom large. There's no one under more pressure than Durant, who has faced immense backlash for his decision to defect from the Thunder, even irrationally catching blame for the lack of competitiveness in this postseason. Then there's Curry and Klay Thompson, who need to shoot it well to ensure the Cavs have to respect everyone defensively.
Cleveland won every game it needed to last year, thriving in a Game 3 where it faced a certain sweep had it lost, then rallying in three straight elimination games to impose its will. It's well within their rights to feel like they're being slighted here and can also rely on having rallied from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit on Christmas Day to edge Golden State 109-108. Irving scored 25 points and made the winning basket, helping the Cavs overcome a 36-point, 15-rebound. Curry shot 4-for-11 in that game, further fueling speculation that Cleveland has his number.
Tristan Thompson's ability to generate extra opportunities on the boards and serving as the backbone of a defense that was porous most of the regular season makes him the x-factor for the Cavs. Zaza Pachulia is healthy and ready to go for the Warriors, but we'll see how often Brown utilizes him or JaVale McGee in the middle as opposed to going small with Green at the five.
Because the pace is expected to be fluid and 3-pointers are likely to fly, the total has been placed incredibly high for an NBA Finals game. Oddsmakers opened the total for Game 1 at 225½ and that number has held steady over the last week while a couple books have gone to 226.
VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David provides his thoughts on Thursday’s opener and what could happen with the total numbers during this series.
“If you look at the last two finals between the pair, you can see that the oddsmakers are expecting some wild shootouts this summer. In 2015, the numbers ranged from 193½ to 203½ and the ‘under’ went 3-2-1 in that series and two of the games went into overtime. While Cleveland was short-handed in that series, it had a healthy squad last year and the totals ranged from 205 to 210½ and the ‘under’ again produced a winning mark (4-3),” said David.
He added, “Even though the total seems a tad inflated, we’re looking at a completely different Cleveland team. Offensively, they’re averaging 116.8 PPG in the playoffs and that’s a drastic increase (104.8 PPG, 99 PPG) from the previous two postseasons. At the same time, they’ve been worse defensively (103.2 PPG) this year and the margins are kind of startling as well (96.1 PPG, 95 PPG). A great defense usually trumps a great offense and I would lean that way in Game 1. I’d play the Cavaliers team total ‘under’ (109½) and also lean to the ‘under’ in the game as well.”
Cleveland has averaged 118.7 PPG on the road in the playoffs, which has helped produced a 4-3 ‘over’ record. The ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in Golden State’s six playoff games at Oracle Arena. In the two regular season meetings between the pair, the ‘under’ went 2-0 despite Golden State averaging 117 PPG.
NBA Finals Game 1 Betting Preview
Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-7, 225.5)
The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers clash in the NBA Finals for the third straight season and the festivities begin Thursday in Oakland, Calif. The Warriors won the title two years ago and the Cavaliers rallied from a 3-1 deficit last season to win their first-ever title.
Golden State is 12-0 this postseason and viewed as heavy favorites in Finals matchup No. 3, and that doesn't sit right with Cleveland power forward Kevin Love. "The whole underdog thing is funny to me, because, yeah, at the end of the day we are defending our title," Love told reporters. "We're trying to repeat, which is so hard to do. I think we will use it as fuel, we will use it as motivation, but the idea of playing into it? It's tough for me to say that is the case. I don't feel like we're underdogs." The Cavaliers also have been strong this postseason with a 12-1 mark and Warriors forward Draymond Green sees the series as a matchup of "greatness," and doesn't understand why there appears to be a lack of appreciations for how both teams rolled through the postseason. "I think you've found two great teams, and we've played that way, and maybe people don't appreciate it because of a blowout or because of a sweep," Green said. "But people may want to be careful, because I think right now you're witnessing greatness. Two great teams, great players, and that's what it is."
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as seven-point home favorites for Game 1 and, despite a very brief stop at -6.5, the current point spread is the same as the opening figure. The total hit the betting board at 225.5 and has yet to move off that initial number.
INJURY REPORT:
Cavaliers - C E. Tavares (Out For Season, hand).
Warriors - SG P. McCaw (Probable, ankle), C Z. Pachulia (Probable, heel), SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (63-32 SU, 44-47-4 ATS, 56-38-1 O/U): Small forward LeBron James averaged 29.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.9 assists in last season's Finals and has been superb this postseason with averages of 32.5 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Point guard Kyrie Irving is averaging 24.5 points this postseason while Love is contributing 17.2 points and 10.4 rebounds. The Cavaliers will be hoping that swingman Kyle Korver (6.4 postseason average) and guards J.R. Smith (6.6) and Iman Shumpert (4.7) step up their performances in the series.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (79-15 SU, 48-43-3 ATS, 41-53 O.U): Golden State hasn’t lived down the memory of blowing a 3-1 lead in last season's finals, the turning point being a one-game suspension handed to Green after a flagrant foul for kicking James in the groin during Game 4. Small forward Kevin Durant (25.2 average) is a new part of the mix while point guard Stephen Curry (28.6) has once again been leading the postseason charge. Shooting guard Klay Thompson is averaging a lackluster 14.4 points on 38.3 percent shooting in the postseason but he scored 25 or more three times - including a high of 37 - in last year's Finals.
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NBA Championship games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 overall.
* Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings in Golden State.
CONSENSUS: 55 percent of users are siding with the road underdog Cleveland Cavaliers and 67 percent are on the Over.
Three favorite prop picks and analysis for Game 1
By: Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com
Much will be made regarding the week-long layoff the public endured in between the conclusion of the Eastern Conference Championship round and the start of the 2017 NBA Finals, but in reality, we weren’t lucky enough to wait a simple week for this highly-anticipated showdown to get started. The bottom line here is that ever since LeBron James and the Cavaliers stormed back from a 3-1 series deficit and defeated the Warriors 93-89 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals last June 19, the world has been waiting damn near a year for the trilogy.
All in all, the Warriors are healthy and have played just 12 games in 46 days since the start of the 2017 playoffs, while the Cavs are healthy and have played only 13 games in 47 days since the start of the postseason.
Something tells me we won’t have to worry too much about any sort of “minutes restrictions” as it pertains to this year’s installment of the NBA Finals.
Before we jump into three Game 1 prop bets that I’ve isolated for Thursday night, here are my predictions for Cavs-Warriors III:
Winner: Golden State Warriors
Games needed: 6
Finals MVP: Draymond Green
PROP: Total free throws made by LeBron James
Line: 6.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
Analysis: The 2016-2017 campaign was James’ worst in 14 years from the stripe, as the four-time MVP converted on just 67.4 percent of his regular season free throw attempts. Additionally, the 4.8 free throws per game that James converted this past season ranked as the third-worst average of his Hall of Fame-worthy career.
As far as the current postseason run is concerned, James has converted seven or more free throws in just six of 13 playoff games to date. And if you look back to last spring against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, you’ll notice that James averaged just 4.4 converted free throws per game, with just one effort (Game 7) featuring more than seven conversions (8/10).
If all that still isn’t enough to convince you that the UNDER is our play in this situation, check out this brilliant piece from ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh on the free throw struggles James has endured over the last year.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-125)
PROP: FIRST QUARTER WAGERING
Line: Golden State -2.5 (-110 both ways)
Analysis: Last season, the Golden State Warriors ranked first in the NBA in both first quarter scoring (28.8 ppg) and first quarter scoring differential (+3.8 ppg). Then the team went out and added four-time scoring champion Kevin Durant to the roster and watched in awe as those aforementioned averages jumped to 30.7 points per game during the first quarter (1st in NBA) with a first quarter scoring differential of +4.4 (1st in NBA).
As for how the Kevin Durant-led Warriors fared during the first quarter of their two regular season matchups with the Cavaliers this past season, the results are as follows: Golden State outscored Cleveland 27-25 on Christmas Day in Cleveland and 37-22 on January 16 in Oakland.
Much has been made about Golden State’s 10-day layoff entering the 2017 NBA Finals, but is it really all that different from Cleveland’s 7-day layoff following the Cavaliers’ Game 5 victory over the Boston Celtics last Thursday night? I think not. The difference here is negligible and I fully expect the Warriors to come out guns blazing Thursday night at Oracle Arena.
Pick: Golden State -2.5 (-110)
PROP: Total points scored by Kyrie Irving
Line: 25.5 (-110 both ways)
Analysis: LeBron James will no doubt serve as both the media and public’s primary source of praise or criticism in Cleveland’s attempt to win back-to-back NBA championships, but Irving will function as the ultimate x-factor who, in my opinion, will win the NBA Finals MVP award if the Cavaliers find a way to upset the Warriors.
The 25-year-old Duke product dropped 24 points on the Warriors in Cleveland’s Christmas Day win over Golden State and 26 points in his team’s blowout defeat in Oakland a little less than a month later, but that’s not where our focus should reside. Instead, pay attention to the 30.8 points per game that Irving averaged during last year’s Finals after his Cavs fell behind 2-0 in the series.
Additionally, with a staggering total of 225.5 points currently hanging at most shops, the bookmakers are telling you that Game 1 will be a high-scoring affair. So where will all of Cleveland’s points come from when Kevin Love turns into a major liability on the defensive end of the floor and LeBron James spends the better portion of his evening chasing Kevin Durant all over Oakland?
Yep, you guessed it: Kyrie Irving.
Pick: OVER 25.5 (-110)
Game 1 Props - Best Bets
VegasInsider.com
Game 1 of the 2017 NBA Finals tips off Thursday and bettors will have plenty of opportunities to cash tickets on the best-of-seven series between the Warriors and Cavaliers.
Along with your basic side and total wagers, all sportsbooks are offering up “Proposition Wagers” or “Props” for each game of the series.
Similar to our predictions for each round, our trio of NBA experts will be offering up their Best Prop Bets for each game.
Based on a five-unit bankroll for each game, their top plays are listed below for the opener between Golden State and Cleveland.
Chris David
2 Units – Under Kyrie Irving Total Points 26 (-120)
If you look at Kyrie Irving’s numbers during the regular season, he was a better scorer on the road but that’s flip-flopped in this year’s playoffs. The All-Star point guard is leading the team with 29.5 points per game at home in the postseason while shooting a blistering 51 percent from the field. In seven road games, that number dips to 20.3 PPG and the field goal percentage (41.9%) also drops substantially as well. You could argue that he should’ve won the Finals MVP last year based on the numbers (30.4 PPG) he produced in the final five games versus the Warriors, but his effort in the first two games (26, 10) in that series from the Bay Area showed his struggles. While his confidence should be high, we certainly didn’t see it in the two regular season meetings versus the Warriors as he was held to 21 PPG while shooting just 37 percent from the floor.
2 Units – Under Kyle Korver Total Points 8 (-115)
I really don’t believe we’ll see much of Kyle Korver in this series because he’s such a defensive liability that if he gets on the floor, Golden State will go after him right away. His numbers dropped to 14.6 minutes in the conference semifinals and he only received significant minutes when the games were out of hand. He’s averaging 6.4 PPG in the playoffs and based on this number, he would be 7-3-1 to the ‘under’ so far.
1 Unit – Under Andre Iguodala Total Points + Rebounds + Assists 14.5 (-115)
The 2015 NBA Finals MVP hasn’t been himself in this year’s playoffs and that’s due to a knee injury that he suffered in the conference semis versus the Spurs. Even before his minutes declined, you can see a big disparity with his home/away numbers in the postseason. On the road he averaged 8 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 2.3 APG which barely get him ‘over’ the number listed by the oddsmakers. However, those numbers are much lower (4.8 PPG, 4 RPG, 4 APG) in the playoff games played at Oracle Arena.
Kevin Rogers
2 Units – Under LeBron James Total Points + Rebounds + Assists 49.5 (-110)
Even though the Cavaliers won the championship last season, the expectations are still high for James to post big numbers. James has not pulled down double-digit rebounds in the last 10 games, while depending on 30+ point games in 11 of 13 playoff contests. In the first two games of the Finals last season at Golden State, James scored a combined 42 points, but did grab at least eight boards in all seven games of that series.
James will get his points throughout the series, but this prop depends on him compiling enough rebounds and assists to cash this number.
2 Units – Under Kyrie Irving 3-Point Attempts 6.5 (-115)
Irving attempted between six and eight three-pointers in the final four games of the Eastern Conference Finals after posting three attempts in each of the first two wins against Boston. In last season’s Finals, Irving hoisted up more than six treys only twice in the seven-game series, while attempting a total of seven three-pointers in the first two losses at Oracle Arena.
1 Unit – Under Stephen Curry Total Points 27.5 (-115)
With the addition of Kevin Durant, there are fewer shot attempts for Curry, even though he scored at least 29 points in three of four games against the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. In last year’s Finals, Curry scored fewer than 25 points in five of seven games, including three efforts of 18 or less at home. In two matchups against Cleveland this season, Curry posted 15 and 20 points, although he only played in 31 minutes in the second matchup when the Warriors blasted the Cavaliers.
Tony Mejia
2 Units – Under LeBron James Total Points 32.5 (-110)
Because the Cavs lost the first two games in Oakland last year, there should be a sense that this series opener isn't a must-win. All the pressure is on the Warriors, which means James' natural inclination will be to make sure his teammates get going and feel comfortable in the series. We'll see him allow Irving and Love look for their shot, making him more of a distributor here.
It doesn't help his cause that he'll be seeing a lot of competent defenders on switches and double-teams, which means he'll look to make the right play and find the open man. As a result, I don't see him breaking the 30-point mark here.
2 Units – Over Kevin Durant Total Points 28.5 (-115)
Durant was terrific for the Warriors in this season's two meetings against the Cavs, who don't really have an answer for him. There's no question he'll be aggressive here and should lead the way in scoring for both teams, getting to the free-throw line when he needs to and easily topping the 30-point mark since he's under pressure to get off to a strong start as the largest variable in the series.
1 Unit – Over Andre Iguodala Total Points+ Rebounds+ Assists 14.5 (-115)
The 2015 Finals MVP will be out there quite a bit since the Dubs value his ability to switch and defend all of the Cavs' key weapons, so expect him to be in the mix for more than 25 minutes. Although he's not much of a scorer, he'll rebound well, keep the ball moving by making the extra pass and should pitch in with a few buckets in transition. Look for him to enjoy a strong Game 1.
Best Bets - Finals MVP
By Sportsbook.ag
The NBA Finals that has a chance to save a overall lackluster 2017 NBA playoffs season is just a few days away now and the hype machine is starting to go in overdrive.
There is no denying just how great the accomplishments of Cleveland and Golden State have been the past few years and with each organization having a championship, we get the rubber match and it should be great.
But while bettors are pouring over series prices, Game 1 lines and even other prop bets, its the Finals MVP that has my attention today.
A first look at the Finals MVP odds shows it likely being a three-horse race between Durant, LeBron, and Curry. Those three guys are clearly the favorites depending on which team comes out on top, and you know others like Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Klay Thompson will get some love from their respective teams.
Of those three second tier guys, I believe you've got to lean towards Irving (+1200) simply because of his ability to take over multiple games on a more consistent basis then the other two. Love and Thompson tend to have one or two spectacular games, but they are often overshadowed by their other teammates already mentioned, and will have a tough time surpassing any of them in the MVP race.
However we can make a case of two other guys (one from each team) to put their stamp on this NBA Finals rematch and get involved in the MVP conversation at the same time.
If Golden State wins the Title: Draymond Green (+750)
It won't take long for anyone associated with the Warriors (either with the team, a fan, or otherwise) to remind people that if Green hadn't been suspended for that Game 5 last year, we could be looking at a Golden State team going for three in a row.
Green's ability to affect the game on both ends of the floor, from basically everywhere on the floor, will be a huge asset to the Warriors in this series. Green will be covering anyone and everyone for the Cavs at some point in this series and it could very well be his play that determines the winner.
Defensively, everyone knows what Green is about and Cleveland definitely has their hands full there. But, offensively, Green will see a lot of open looks at least early on, and when he's hot with his shooting stroke the Warriors are basically unbeatable.
The Cavs will look to force Green to beat them with his shot as they would prefer to contain Curry, Durant etc, and Green hitting those shots puts the Cavs in a bind.
If Draymond can bring solid offensive numbers to the table every time out there, maintain his composure and hound the Cavaliers with his defense, we might see him lift up that MVP award at series' end.
If Cleveland wins the Title: Tristan Thompson (+10000)
Obviously more of a flyer here, but Thompson is likely going to have just as many opportunities to positively affect each game for his team as Green will for the Warriors, and his big presences inside is sure to be an asset that Cleveland won't hesitate to use.
Thompson's motor and ability to get extra possessions on the offensive glass could easily turn a game or two Cleveland's way in this series.
He's not quite the all-around scorer that Green is, but Thompson can put a double-double on you in a hurry, and given the perception of the Warriors still being a smaller, softer, team inside, Thompson will be asked to throw his body around in the paint right from the outset.
He's been a much better free-throw shooter in these playoffs as well, meaning Golden State can't automatically default to hacking him when they are in a bit of trouble.
Admittedly it's tough to envision many scenarios where Thompson is considered the best Cavs player in the series should they win, but the huge price tag on this wager deserves at least a bit of flyer consideration, especially if he's asked to guard guys like Durant in crunch time.
Hey, we saw Andre Iguodala win the MVP in the 2015 series for his all-around contribution, and Thompson definitely fills that role this year.