NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, June 2

NBA Knowledge

Cleveland-Golden State

Warriors won last five games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; once again they're facing a rookie NBA head coach in Finals. Golden State rallied back from down 3-1 to beat Thunder in semis, winning Game 7 Monday. Cleveland has not played since Friday. Cavaliers are 12-2 in playoffs, 7-2 on road going 1-2 at Toronto in Eastern finals- their guards aren't as good on defense as Thunder, a problem against Curry-Thompson.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31

Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9

Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1

Armadillosports.com

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

After a month and a half of playoff action, we are finally down to the final two teams who will compete for the NBA Championship, and it’s a match-up that isn’t really a surprise to anyone. The Golden State Warriors are the reigning champions, and are coming off a record breaking regular season that was one for the ages. The Cleveland Cavaliers limped to the Finals last season, and always looked as though they would get back there again once the postseason got underway. This is a rematch of the Finals from last year, but with one major difference; the Cavaliers are healthy this time around. The Warriors are deservedly the NBA online betting favorites, but we will all remember that it took them 6 games to dispose of a Cavaliers team that was missing Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving last season. This has all the makings of an instant classic, and it all gets started on Thursday night in Oakland.

Why bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers should be well rested coming into this series, as they only had to play 14 games to get to the Final. The only losses they have encountered so far came in the Eastern Conference Final when they lost both games on the road to the Toronto Raptors. Even with those losses, you never really felt that the series was in any doubt, as the trio of James, Love, and Irving have quite simply been lights out. What the Cavs are going to have to overcome now is a little trickier, as this is a Warriors team that they lost both games to in the regular season. They can take solace in the fact that Golden State only lost 9 games all season long, and that this Cavs team is much better than the one that struggled at times in the regular season.

Why bet on the Golden State Warriors

It looked for a while as though the repeat was going to become the impossible dream for the Warriors. Down 3-1 in the Western Conference Final, and still facing a trip to Oklahoma City, the Warriors looked dead in the water. They delivered an amazing comeback, though, including a Game 6 4th quarter rally that gave them the opportunity to go home and win the series in 7. MVP Steph Curry struggled through the first few games of that series, but he looked like his old self in the final 2 games, which suggests that his injury concerns may now be a thing of the past. Golden State will know that they have another tough task on their hands, as this is a stronger Cavs team than the one they beat last year to win the Championship.

Pick and Final Score Prediction

The Warriors are sure to still be on a high after their big Game 7 win against OKC, and I think they will carry that momentum over to the opening game against a Cavs team that has been inactive for a little while. A fast start should help the Warriors live up to their betting odds as they hold on for a close win.

Cleveland Cavaliers 103 Golden State Warriors 106

NBA Finals Predictions
VegasInsider.com

The 2016 NBA Finals begins on Thursday from Oracle Arena as Golden State will meet Cleveland in a rematch of last year’s finals.

Throughout the playoffs our trio of NBA experts listed below have offered up their fearless predictions on every series and their records aren’t too shabby through 14 series (Exact Games).

Kevin Rogers: 11-3 (5)
Chris David: 10-4 (4)
Tony Mejia: 11-3 (7)

Below are each of their predictions for the NBA Finals between the Warriors and Cavaliers, which includes their analysis as well. Make a note that they all drilled the Warriors last season and they're expecting the repeat this June.

Analysis - Kevin Rogers

The Warriors were very fortunate last season when they faced the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals as Cleveland played without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Irving ripped up his kneecap in the series opening loss in overtime at Golden State, while Love suffered a shoulder injury in the first round. Those two players will definitely help ease the burden off LeBron James’ shoulders to balance the scoring load, but Irving and Love are both defensive liabilities against Golden State’s dynamic offense.

In two meetings this season, the Warriors swept the Cavaliers, including holding Cleveland to 31% from the floor in a Christmas Day victory at Oracle Arena. Since falling behind 2-1 to the Cavaliers in last year’s NBA Finals, Golden State has won five consecutive games against Cleveland, while holding the Cavs to 98 points or less in regulation in eight straight meetings. The Cavs haven’t been sharp on the road in the playoffs, as only two victories came by double-digits, as Cleveland lost two of three at Toronto.

Golden State has plenty of momentum after erasing a 3-1 deficit to knock out Oklahoma City in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors have won a road game in 10 consecutive playoff series since 2013, pretty much guaranteeing at least one victory in this series at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland rolled to a 10-0 start to begin the playoffs, but the Cavaliers faced a pair of untested teams in the Pistons and Raptors, while sweeping an overachieving Hawks’ squad.

Analysis - Chris David

I’m surprised this series price isn’t a little higher and it probably would be if we didn’t just see Cleveland go 12-2 in the playoffs. The Cavaliers are certainly improved but I like betting against teams when they step up in class and that’s the case in this matchup. Golden State was clearly the better team during the regular season and if you look at the opponents they faced, the same could be said for the postseason as well.

Cleveland coasted through the Eastern Conference all season, posting a 30-4 record versus teams with losing records and only going 27-21 against winning teams. Even though the Cavaliers looked impressive in sweeps against the Pistons and Hawks in the first two rounds of the playoffs, they were humbled in two games at Toronto and as much as the Rogers Centre appears to be a hostile environment, it doesn’t come close to Oracle Arena.

Golden State has looked vulnerable at times during their postseason run, especially in the two losses at Oklahoma City. Fortunately for the Warriors, they own home court and that advantage can’t be understated. The NBA reverted back to the 2-2-1-1-1 format from the 2-3-2 setup a couple years ago and the home team has won both of those series, San Antonio in 2014 and Golden State last year.

A lot of my handicapping is based on form, trends and angles as opposed to the proverbial “eyeball” test and I rarely buy the narrative. Golden State is the better team on both ends of the court and if you follow the NBA historically, you’re well aware that repeat champions happen often. LeBron led Miami to back-to-back wins (2012, 2013) but came up short on the three-peat while Kobe and the L.A. Lakers did so between 2009 and 2010. Even if you toss out the Phil Jackson teams (Lakers, Bulls) that won multiple titles, you can find other clubs like Houston with Hakeem Olajuwon and the “Bad Boys” of Detroit that pulled off the repeat. Barring a horrendous offensive performance by the Warriors or lights-out production from the Cavaliers, I believe this series will be over in five games.

Analysis - Tony Mejia

LeBron James feels better than he has in years, so he'll be able to lift the Cavs up to the level they need to play at to hang with the Warriors. Over the course of the series, the ability to defend James with Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes and even Klay Thompson at times should serve Golden State well in being able to stay home on shooters and avoid putting itself in vulnerable positions via double-teams.

I’d expect that to be the difference, since homecourt advantage and better depth give the Warriors the cushion needed to figure Cleveland out and wear them down. Count on the NBA Finals being won on defense, since neither team can afford to let the other get into a rhythm given how lethal both teams have been from 3-point range this postseason.

Kyrie Irving’s suspect defensive acumen could be exploited by Steph Curry and the offense, so count on that being another critical factor. Oddsmakers have put the Game 1 total at 210, anticipating a fast pace since both teams have preferred an up-tempo style. It will be interesting to see whether there is any adjustment period required for the teams to feel one another out or whether we’ll see 110-point first-half from the jump.

The Warriors are by far the best team Cleveland has seen in these playoffs, but the Cavs should be fresher early after prevailing in a far less taxing conference finals. Regardless of who looks most formidable early, I’d expect the venue change to play a large role in giving Cleveland confidence, since the prospect of ending a drought without a championship that dates back to 1964 should make Quicken Loans Arena as imposing atmosphere as we know Oakland’s Oracle will be. Strap in for a classic, historic series.

Game 1 Betting Trends
VegasInsider.com

The home team has gone 15-3 straight up in Game 1 of the last 18 NBA Finals

Nine of the last 13 victories have come by double digits and 12 have come by eight points or more

The ‘under’ has gone 8-3-1 in the last 12 openers

Golden State has gone 2-1 SU in Game 1 matchups in this year’s playoffs while going 2-1 against the spread

The Warriors are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home in the playoffs

Cleveland is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in Game 1’s this postseason but play their first series opener on the road

In the Cavs’ first road game in each of their first three series, they’ve gone 2-1 both SU and ATS

Overall, Cleveland is 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road in this year’s playoffs, while the Cavs are listed as an underdog for the first time this postseason

NBA Finals Game 1 Preview
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Cleveland at Golden State (-5.5/210)

2015-16 Meetings

Dec 25, 2015 - Cleveland 83 at Golden State 89 (Cavs +6.5, Under 207.5)
Jan 18, 2016 - Golden State 132 at Cleveland 98 (Warriors +3.5, Over 210)

The Cavs collectively sported a poker face Phil Ivey would be proud of as they sat back and waited for the Western Conference to crown a champion.

Did LeBron James covet an NBA Finals rematch to get another crack at Stephen Curry and the Warriors? Was Cleveland secretly pulling for Oklahoma City so Game 1 of the championship series would begin within city limits? No one let their guard down or showed their hand.

"It didn't matter. Like Coach (Tyronn) Lue said, we were just waiting on the winner," James told reporters on Tuesday. "We're fortunate to be here and we look forward to the challenge. It's an unbelievable team that we're going against. Hats off."

As he watched the Warriors happily place those sharp-looking Finals caps on their heads, celebrating their latest Oracle Arena conquest, I’d give anything to know what LeBron was truly thinking. Hours later, it was easy to compose himself and control the message. He deftly cast aside any thoughts that it mattered who lined up against his Cavs in Game 1, dismissing what oddsmakers felt about the series.

"Not my concern," he said. "I don't get involved in all of that – underdog, overdog, whatever the case may be. It's stupidity."

Hey now.

The term is favorite, and though James may not care for it, there are more than a handful of people interested in the fact that Golden State is a little better than 1-to-2 chalk (-210) to win its second consecutive title. Cleveland is currently netting a return of +177 at Sportsbook.ag, which means it is being given a better chance to win it all than last year.

Keep in mind Kevin Love was sidelined but Kyrie Irving was healthy as the 2015 Finals began, yet the Westgate SuperBook opened with a series price favoring the Warriors (-270) and offering +230 to back Cleveland. After falling behind 2-1, Golden State won the last three games to claim its first championship in 40 years.

When you add in this season’s results, the Warriors have won five straight meetings between these teams. All of those games were coached by David Blatt, who was dismissed four days after the most recent loss.

“The Cavaliers are listed as an underdog for the first time in the postseason, and they owned a 7-2 ATS record when receiving points in the regular season,” VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers said. “Cleveland covered as seven-point ‘dogs in an 89-83 setback at Oracle Arena on Christmas Day, snapping a three-game ATS losing streak to Golden State dating back to Game 4 of the 2015 NBA Finals. However, the Cavaliers allowed the Warriors to shoot 54 percent from the floor in the 132-98 setback as 3.5-point home favorites.”

Since Lue took over on Jan. 22, the Cavs have been a ‘dog just four times, going 3-1 straight up with wins over San Antonio and OKC. The only loss came in a late regular-season game played without James. Interestingly, the 5.5-6 points they’re getting in Game 1 is the exact number that sportsbooks spotted them before last year’s Finals opener. The total is set at 210, six points higher than where it opened last June.

VegasInsider.com totals expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on the number, the highest in an NBA Finals since Game 2 of the 1995 series between Houston and Orlando.

“Game 1 isn’t an easy handicap and this total (210) will likely be adjusted quickly for the second game. What we do know is that this is the lowest total that Golden State has seen in the playoffs and it’s also the highest for Cleveland. From a trends perspective, you can call it a wash with the Warriors leaning slightly to the ‘under’ in their 10 home games (6-4) this postseason while the Cavaliers have posted a 3-3-1 total mark as visitors,” explained David.

“Since it’s tough to make a decision on the form of both clubs, I’m weighing more on the head-to-head matchups from this season and last year’s finals. In those games, the Cavaliers only managed to score 89 and 98 points and they shot a combined 12-of-49 (24%) from 3-point land in those games. We’ve seen some great numbers from Cleveland from downtown in the playoffs but Golden State’s team defense matches up very well in this series. In last year’s finals, the Cavs averaged 93.5 in the six games and I know they were short-handed but you just can’t ignore those numbers.”

“Going back to 1998, the ‘under’ has gone 11-6-1 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals but there were some very fortunate tickets to cash and that includes last year’s result between this pair, which went to overtime. During this span, we’ve only seen two road teams score 100-plus point in the opener and one of them was Cleveland last year, who scored 100 in overtime. The other was the 76ers, who dropped 107 on the Lakers in the 2001 finals in another game that saw an extra session. Cleveland’s team total is 102.5 for Thursday and I’m buying the ‘under’ in Game 1.”

This series opener is going to show us exactly how both teams plan to attack one another, but going in, you can be fairly certain the Warriors are going to rely on their small lineups as often as possible, hoping to gang rebound well enough to make it worthwhile. Their goal will be to take advantage of Tristan Thompson, Love and Channing Frye on switches on the perimeter, which is ultimately how they wore down the Thunder, thriving from 3-point range.

The Cavs can counter by playing a lineup where James would match up with Green as the biggest player on the floor, teaming with Irving, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Richard Jefferson. That would give them their best chance to switch everything without being exploited, but would similarly compromise them defensively. Andrew Bogut and Thompson’s work in the middle rebounding and protecting the basket will also have a large impact in how minutes are dispersed.

For Lue, coaching in his first NBA Finals may be a challenge since he’s doing so against the best team he’s seen to date in the head seat. Steve Kerr has already won a ring, not to mention coaching his Warriors through the more challenging Western Conference in consecutive seasons. Lue will need LeBron to be at his best to have a chance to steal the series opener, and history isn’t on his side here.

“James has not performed well in his career in playoff series openers on the road, losing 10 of 11 times in this situation,” said Rogers. “In the NBA Finals, James has lost by margins of 8, 15, and 11 in Game 1’s on the road, including an overtime setback at Golden State in last season’s Finals opener. The only victory came at Atlanta in the 2015 Eastern Conference Finals, as James’ teams are 4-9 SU/ATS in the last 13 Finals games on the highway since 2011.”

The Cavs are 5-2 straight up (3-4 ATS) on the road this postseason and stole Game 2 in Oakland last year. That contest was memorable due to Matthew Dellavedova’s defense on Curry, holding him to 0-for-8 shooting when matched up against him as the Warriors lost 95-93 in OT despite Klay Thompson’s 34 points. If Cleveland is successful in winning one of these first two games this year, it appears far better-equipped to turn stealing homecourt advantage into a title. However, as Rogers points out, stealing a series opener hasn’t translated into Finals success as often as you might think.

“The last time a road team won Game 1 of the NBA Finals came back in 2013 when the Spurs edged the Heat, 92-88, but they lost the series.” said Rogers. “The winner of Game 1 the last five seasons has won the championship only twice in this span, with Golden State (2015) and San Antonio (2014) accomplishing the feat.”

All eyes will be on these NBA Finals given recent ratings, and despite what James believes, there will be quite a few viewers harboring more than a casual rooting interest. Expect a chess match. Going in, it appears that Cleveland has built a roster capable of excelling in going small, which may play into the Warriors’ hands given their preferred pace. Of course, the possibility definitely exists that the Cavs will be able to beat Golden State at its own game.

NBA Finals Game 1 Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-5.5, 210)

The Golden State Warriors don't think their record 73-win season will feel complete unless they win the NBA title and the Cleveland Cavaliers are once again standing in their way. The Warriors attempt to knock off Cleveland in the NBA Finals for the second straight campaign when the best-of-seven series gets underway Thursday in Oakland, Calif.

Two-time MVP Stephen Curry is no longer bothered by the knee injury that interrupted his playoff experience and is purely focused on making sure the Warriors win the rematch of the series decided in six games last season. "I know we're a better team than we were last year, just off experience and what we've been through in this postseason," Curry told reporters on Wednesday. "(We're) better equipped to kind of handle the scene of The Finals and all that's kind of thrown at you when you get here." Cleveland forward LeBron James says his team is better positioned to win the rematch and he was definitely testy when told the Warriors are heavy favorites. "Not my concern," James told reporters. "I don't get involved in all of that -- underdog, overdog, whatever the case may be. It's stupidity."

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 5.5-point home favorites over the Cavs for Game 1 and have yet to move off that number. The total has also yet to move of its opening number of 210. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "This series will be won by whichever team shoots better from three-point range. It's a volatile statistic, but these are the two best teams in the league from behind the arc." - Covers Expert Power Sports.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: James is playing in his seventh NBA Finals and has only emerged as a winner twice -- both times with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh as teammates on the Miami Heat. Cleveland was without power forward Kevin Love (shoulder) for all of last season's championship series, lost point guard Kyrie Irving (kneecap) in the opener and has Tryonn Lue as head coach after the midseason firing of David Blatt. "It's a big thing, and I just think that we have a different team than we had last year," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue said at his Wednesday press conference. "Organization-wise, it's the same two teams, but playing-wise and players-wise, we're a different team. Kevin and Kyrie are both healthy, the addition of (backup forward) Channing Frye, we're a completely different team than we were last year."

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Curry scored 36 points in Game 7 as Golden State finished off its comeback from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference finals and he and shooting guard Klay Thompson combined for 62 3-point baskets in the series - 32 by Curry; 30 by Thompson. Coach Steve Kerr expects Curry's competitive nature to be in high form as former NBA players and James - who questioned how valuable Curry is after the MVP tally - continue to hurl slights in his direction. "He doesn't have to say anything," Kerr said at his Wednesday press conference. "He does his talking through his play, basically, but he definitely is motivated by things that people say about him or things that he reads or anything like that. The guy is as gifted and skilled as he is, and I think one of his greatest attributes is his competitive fire."

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus Pacific Division opponents.
* Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Golden State.
* Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 versus Eastern Conference opponents.

CONSENSUS: Early on the public is giving the slight edge to Golden State, with 54 percent of wagers on the defending champs. When it comes to the total, 62 percent of wagers are on the over.

Game 1 - Cavaliers at Warriors
By SSportsbook.ag

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (69-27) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (85-14)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -6.0, Total: 210.5

The Warriors will be looking to take a 1-0 series lead when they host the Cavaliers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday.

The Cavaliers made it to this point by defeating the Raptors in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. This Cleveland team has lost just two games throughout the entire postseason and will be looking for revenge against a Warriors team that emerged victorious when these teams met in the Finals a year ago. The Cavaliers were, however, extremely banged up when these teams played last year and they will be at full strength when things get started on Thursday.

The Warriors, meanwhile, will be coming into this series after a battle in the Western Conference Finals. Golden State trailed Oklahoma City 3-1 in the series, but the team ended up winning 96-88 as a seven-point home favorite in Game 7 on Monday. The Warriors enter the Finals after having won-and-covered in three straight games. One trend favoring Cleveland in this series is that the team is 12-2 ATS when playing only its second game in seven days over the past three seasons. The Warriors are, however, an impressive 30-15 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Golden State, like Cleveland, will be at full strength coming into this contest.

The Cavaliers have looked very good throughout the duration of the postseason and they’ll now have their chance to make up for last year’s loss to Golden State in the Finals. As is always the case with this team, SF LeBron James (24.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 7.0 APG, 2.2 SPG in playoffs) will need to have a great series if the Cavaliers are going to find a way to hoist the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.

James was excellent in Game 6 against the Raptors last series, putting up 33 points with 11 rebounds, six assists and three blocks in 41 minutes of action. He was aggressive going to the basket and didn’t settle for too many jumpers. He’ll need to do the same against Golden State. James should, however, be feeling good about the way he’ll play in this series. He averaged 35.8 PPG, 13.3 RPG, 8.8 APG and 1.3 SPG in the Finals last year and won’t need to do as much, as his team is healthy coming into this series.

Both PG Kyrie Irving (24.3 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) and PF Kevin Love (17.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG in playoffs) should be able to really help James in this series. Both guys were out for the series when these teams met last year and they are both capable of taking over games. If Irving can hold his own against Curry on Thursday then the Cavs just might steal Game 1. It’d also be big if Love can get hot from deep.

The Warriors looked like they were down for the count against the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, but they ended up coming away with a victory in the series and now have a chance to win their second straight NBA title. If Golden State is going to win this series then PG Stephen Curry (26.7 PPG, 6.1 APG, 5.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) will need to stay hot throughout this series. Curry scored at least 31 points in each of the final three games of the series against Oklahoma City. He is now 16-for-34 from the outside over the past three games and has a real chance to do some damage against the Cavaliers. Cleveland does not defend the point guard position well, so Curry must be aggressive on Thursday.

SG Klay Thompson (26.2 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) will also need to come out firing in this one. Thompson has been scorching hot over the past two games, going 17-for-29 from three in those contests. If he can continue to hit his threes then it’s going to make things a lot easier on his teammates moving forward. One guy who might just be the x-factor in this series is, however, PF Draymond Green (15.1 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 5.9 APG, 2.1 BPG, 1.6 SPG). Green is the Warriors’ most versatile defender and he will likely spend a lot of time guarding LeBron James in this series. If he can hold his own in that matchup then it’d be big for the Warriors.