NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, March 2nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Warriors won their last three games with Chicago; they won by 10-31 points in last two visits to the Windy City. Six of last nine series games went over total. Golden State won seven of its last nine games, is 4-6 vs spread in last ten road games. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Bulls won four of last five games, both overall and at home (4-1 vs spread). Over is 6-4 in their last ten home games.
Suns won seven of last nine games with Charlotte; Hornets lost four of last five visits to desert, with losses by 9-10-17-6 points (2-3 vs spread). Last three series games went over. Charlotte lost 13 of last 16 games; they covered five of last six road games. Six of their last eight games stayed under total. Phoenix lost five of its last six games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in their last eight home games. Three of their last four games went over.
Home side won last eight Oklahoma City-Portland games; Thunder lost last four visits here, by 3-5-5-19 points (2-2 vs spread, over 3-1). Oklahoma City won/covered its last four games, all at home; they’re 3-7 in last ten road games, 1-3 vs spread in last three. Six of their last seven games went over. Blazers lost seven of last nine games; they’re 0-3 against the spread in last four home games.
Armadillosports.com
Warriors, Bulls clash in Chicago
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The Bulls will be looking to get over the .500 mark with a win over the Durant-less Warriors on Thursday.
SF Kevin Durant (Knee) suffered a pretty serious injury against Washington last game, and the superstar is expected to miss about a month or so of action for Golden State. It’s a big blow for the Warriors, but they still have plenty of talent on the roster and nobody is going to feel bad for them. The Warriors lost that game against the Wizards on Tuesday, as they fell 112-108 as seven-point road favorites. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for Golden State, and the team will be hoping to get right back into the win column on Thursday. That won’t necessarily be easy against a Chicago team that has now won-and-covered in four of its past five games. The Bulls are playing well offensively, shooting 45.0% or better from the floor in four of their past five as well. They’ll need to be clicking on that end on Thursday or they will get blown out in this one. That is exactly what happened to Chicago the last time the team faced Golden State, as the Warriors won that game 123-92 as 19-point home favorites. Golden State is now 4-1 both SU and ATS versus Chicago over the past three seasons, and that includes a 2-0 record both SU and ATS when playing at United Center. One trend that sticks out when looking at this game is that Chicago is 16-33 ATS after having won two of its most recent three games over the past two seasons. As previously mentioned, Durant is out indefinitely for the Warriors. SF Matt Barnes, meanwhile, could be in the lineup for Golden State. The team just signed him, but he might not be available to play just yet. For Chicago, both PF Paul Zipser (Ankle) and PG Michael Carter-Williams (Knee) are questionable.
The Warriors are going to be without Durant for a while, but this team won a championship and lost in the Finals in the two years before he showed up. Golden State should be just fine, and we could see some more of the PG Steph Curry (24.8 PPG, 6.3 APG, 4.4 RPG, 1.7 SPG) we saw last season moving forward. Curry was the unanimous MVP a year ago, and he will no longer need to worry about getting Durant a certain amount of touches per game. Look for him to shred this Chicago team on Thursday, as the Bulls are weak as the point guard position and have absolutely no match for him. SG Klay Thompson (21.9 PPG) could also see some more offensive explosions moving forward. Thompson has not shot the ball as well as he is capable of this season, but he might have been having trouble adjusting to his new teammates. Look for Thompson to turn it on in these next few weeks, as he is used to being the second option on offense. PF Draymond Green (10.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.4 BPG) could also enjoy some more looks. He was unbelievable in the loss to Washington, finishing with 14 points, 14 assists and eight boards in 40 minutes of action. He hit some big threes late, and he’ll get some more opportunities to take those shots moving forward.
The Bulls are playing some good basketball right now, and they are doing that without SF Jimmy Butler (24.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.9 SPG) at his best. Butler had just eight points on 3-for-13 shooting in a loss to Denver on Tuesday, and he has scored fewer than 20 points in two of the past three games. He’ll need to be a lot better than that on Thursday or this Golden State team will destroy Chicago at United Center. SG Dwyane Wade (19.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.5 SPG) will also need to play extremely well for the Bulls to come away with this win. Wade has been great since the All-Star break, averaging 20.7 PPG over the past three contests. He was an efficient 8-for-14 from the floor in the loss to Denver on Tuesday, but the Bulls would be happy with another performance like that from him. He’ll just need to make sure he comes to play on the other end of the floor as well, as he can’t afford to let Klay Thompson catch fire in this one. PF Nikola Mirotic (9.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) could be an x-factor for the Bulls in this game, though. Mirotic prefers the pace that the Warriors like to play at, and he could give Chicago a lift by knocking down some outside shots. He struggled against Denver last game, but did average 17.0 PPG and 9.0 RPG in the previous two contests.
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Russell Westbrook and the Thunder have started the second-half of the season very strong with three straight wins both straight up and against the spread. Including those victories, Oklahoma City (35-25 SU, 34-25-1 ATS) has gone 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
During this span, the All-Star point guard has notched six triple-doubles and he earned his 30th of the season (43 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) this past Tuesday as OKC nipped Utah 109-106 as a two-point home underdog.
As of Wednesday evening, Sportsbook.ag had adjusted their betting odds to win the NBA Regular Season MVP and made Westbrook the 10/11 favorite over James Harden (1/1). The Rockets All-Star has been just as impressive as his counterpart and was favored for the past couple months but most would agree that the OKC standout is doing much more with less.
An 8-2 run versus the number is nothing to toss aside but four of the wins came against teams with losing records and it also helps that the Thunder played nine of 11 games in February at Chesapeake Energy Arena.
As they say, the “going gets tough” in March as OKC will play eight of 14 games on the road and four of those games come against the top three teams in the Western Conference – Golden State, San Antonio and Houston.
Portland (24-35 SU, 23-36 ATS) will be the first test on Thursday and as bad as the Trail Blazers have looked at times this season, they’ve opened as 1½-point home favorites for this matchup which could have you pumping the breaks on OKC.
The Trail Blazers have dropped five of their last six games and remain the worst team in the NBA for bettors this season. Their recent three game road-trip vs. Eastern Conference foes pretty much sums up their season as they rallied for a win at Orlando before faltering late in games to Toronto and Detroit, the latter ending in overtime.
The Moda Center is always known as a tough venue for visitors but a 14-13 SU and 12-15 ATS mark should make anybody hesitant to back the Blazers these days. They’ve gone 1-4 in their last five at home despite averaging 109 points per game, which tells you that the defense continues to be a major issue (110.2 PPG).
Fortunately for Portland, the Thunder are ranked 19th in defensive scoring (105.9 PPG) and that number jumps up on the road (108 PPG).
The total is hovering between 220 and 221 for this matchup and while the pace should be fast, make a note that Oklahoma City is ranked 29th in 3-point shooting (32.7%) and it just hit 15-of-22 in Tuesday’s win over Utah. Will that continue or was it a fluke? Most would lean to the latter, plus OKC is the best ‘under’ bet (18-8 ) on the road this season.
These teams met on Super Bowl Sunday in Oklahoma City and the Thunder held on for a 105-99 win over Portland and covered as a five-point home favorite. Including that result, the home team has won eight straight meetings in this series.
The Trail Blazers diced up the Thunder 114-95 on Dec. 13 as two-point home favorites and that was the fifth straight win over OKC from the Moda Center. Westbrook was held to 20 points in that loss and he’s failed to register a triple-double in two games versus the Blazers this season.
The teams will meet for the fourth and final time of the season next Tuesday from Oklahoma City.
OKC shooting guard Victor Oladipo (back) is listed as ‘questionable’ for this game.
TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.
Two other games are scheduled for Thursday and below is my quick handicap.
Golden State (50-10 SU, 28-30-2 ATS) at Chicago (30-30 SU, 30-30 ATS)
Tough game to handicap after finding out that Warriors All-Star forward Kevin Durant is expected to miss at least four weeks with a bone bruise. He suffered the injury on Tuesday as Golden State dropped a 112-108 decision to the Wizards as a 6½-point road favorite.
How will Golden State respond without him? It’s very fair to say that the supporting cast for the Warriors is lacking both depth and talent (Barnes, Bogut, Barbosa, Speights) this season but they did rally from a 19-point deficit to Washington on Tuesday without him and almost won in a very tough environment. Durant has only missed one game this season, which happened last week, and the Warriors still ripped the Nets 112-95.
The Bulls aren’t in the same class as the Nets but they certainly aren’t considered an elite team either and that’s why they’re listed as home underdogs tonight. When catching points at home, Chicago has stepped up in class and managed to produce an impressive 6-2 record both SU and ATS this season.
Golden State opened as a six-point favorite on Wednesday and the number was pushed up to 7 and 7½ at a few betting shops. The Warriors have gone 19-3 in non-conference games this season, all three losses coming on the road including the aforementioned setback to Washington on Tuesday.
Chicago had its four-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday in a 125-107 loss to Denver as a 2½-point home favorite. Despite this loss, the Bulls have been solid at the United Center this season (18-12 SU, 15-15 ATS).
The Warriors have won and covered three straight and four of the last five against the Bulls, which includes a 123-92 victory this season on Feb. 8 as 18-point home favorites. In that game, Chicago didn’t have Dwyane Wade or Jimmy Butler in the lineup.
The total opened at 219½ and even though the Bulls have played to three straight ‘over’ tickets, they still remain one of the strongest ‘under’ leans (36-24) this season. Golden State has also shown a lean to the low side (34-26) this season, and that includes a 21-10 ‘under’ mark away from the Bay Area.
This game tips at 8:05 p.m. ET and will be televised nationally on TNT.
Charlotte (26-34 SU, at Phoenix (18-42 SU, 29-29-2 ATS)
The All-Star break appears to have helped the Hornets, who closed the first-half with a 1-11 mark and were 5-17 overall in 2017. Even though Charlotte is just 2-2 since then, the club has been very competitive and the two losses came in overtime to the Pistons and Clippers.
Thursday’s matchup is a winnable game and the Hornets have been installed as short road favorites (-3½) over the Suns. Charlotte hasn’t been great when laying points on the road (9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS) but it has won its last two in this role, both wins coming on the current road trip over the Kings and Lakers.
It’s fair to say that Phoenix is in the same class with those clubs and it has gone 6-11 SU and 10-7 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Suns have started the second-half with three straight losses (1-2 ATS) but they all came on the road. Defense continues to be a major issue for the Suns, who are ranked 29th in scoring (112.8 PPG) and 28th in field goal percentage (47.3%).
Despite the rough form for the Suns, the club has found a way to produce a winning record (11-9) versus the Eastern Conference this season. At home, they’ve gone 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS versus the East. Charlotte has gone 10-14 versus the West but make a note that it’s gone 5-1 on the road versus the West when laying points.
This will be the first meeting between the teams this season. Last year, the pair split their two encounters with the home team winning each game and the ‘over’ cashed in both contests.
These teams will meet again in Charlotte in late March.