NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, March 9th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Cleveland lost three of last four games; they’re 7-9 vs spread in last 16 road games. Seven of their last eight games stayed under. Detroit won/covered nine of last 11 home games; Under is 9-5 in their last fifteen games. Cavaliers won five of last six games with Detroit; Pistons are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games. Cleveland won three of last visits to Motor City. Four of last five series games went over the total.
San Antonio won its last nine games; they’re 8-1 vs spread on road if they played night before. Spurs covered four of last five road games overall. Thunder lost their last four games (0-4 vs spread); they won seven of last nine at home. Five of their last six games went over. Spurs lost three of last four games with Oklahoma City; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. San Antonio lost three of last four visits to Oklahoma.
Clippers lost three of last five games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven road games, 4-3 vs spread on road if they played night before. Under is 4-1-2 in their last seven games. Grizzlies lost their last three games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight home games. Last four Memphis games went over. Clippers won six of last eight games with Memphis, covering three of last four; under is 6-3 in last nine series games. Teams split last four series games played here.
Philly lost five of last six games; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five road games. Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Trailblazers won/covered last three games; they’re 9-6 vs spread in last 15 home games. Last five Portland games went over the total. 76ers lost four of last five visits to Portland (2-2-1 vs spread); home side won last four series games. Last three series games stayed under total.
Los Angeles lost its last eight games (0-8 vs spread); they lost four of last five home games (1-4 vs spread). Three of their last four games stayed under. Suns won three of last four games, all at home; six of their last eight games went over total. Lakers lost eight of last ten games with Phoenix (2-7-1 vs spread); they lost last four games in the desert (0-4 vs spread). Over is 7-2-1 in last ten series games.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Game of the Night – Spurs at Thunder
Despite resting its two best players, San Antonio (50-13 straight up, 34-29 against the spread) won its ninth straight game on Wednesday as it rallied past Sacramento for a 114-104 victory. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge were provided the break and the rest of the team stepped by outscoring the Kings 66-41 in the second-half.
Falling behind early cost the Spurs (-11½) the cover and that’s been a common theme surrounding the team lately. The club has failed to cash tickets in five straight games and is just 3-6 ATS during the current winning streak.
On Thursday, San Antonio (-3) is laying an easier number to cash and it will be facing an Oklahoma City (35-29 SU, 34-29-1 ATS) team that’s mired in a serious funk. The Thunder have dropped four in a row, both SU and ATS. They’ve allowed 115.5 points per game during this skid and they’ve only held one team under 100 since the All-Star break and that effort came against the limited Los Angeles Lakers.
Even though the Spurs played last night, San Antonio has been very sound on no rest this season, going 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS. They haven’t covered the last two in these spots but what’s impressive is that nine of the wins have come on the road.
Oklahoma City has been installed as a home underdog five times this season and it’s gone 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS. The defense was again an issue in those contests (110 PPG) and that helped the ‘over’ go 4-1.
San Antonio owns the best road mark (27-7 SU, 20-14 ATS) in the league and it’s been favored in 28 of those games. When laying chalk away from home, the Spurs are 23-5 SU and 15-12-1 ATS.
These teams have only met once this season and San Antonio captured a 108-94 win on Jan. 31 as a 9½-point home favorite. If the NBA playoffs started today, these teams would meet in the first round.
Along with this game, we have four other games slated for Thursday and below is my quick handicap.
Cleveland (42-20 SU, 28-32-2 ATS) at Detroit (31-33 SU, 31-33 ATS)
The Cavs and Pistons split their first two meetings this season but Detroit’s win (106-91) on Dec. 26 occurred with LeBron James sitting out for Cleveland. When he did play, Cleveland routed Detroit 104-81 as an 8½-point home favorite. The ‘under’ cashed in both games and is on a 4-0-1 run in this series.
Cleveland (-4.5) has gone 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS since the All-Star break and they just got swept in a home-and-home series versus Miami. The offense has been held under 100 in all four setbacks but could get a boost Thursday if shooting guard J.R. Smith returns to the lineup. He’s listed as ‘questionable.’
Detroit has gone 4-3 both SU and ATS since the break, which includes a 115-98 loss at Indiana last night. The point-spread hasn’t matter in any of the games during this span and all three losses came when the Pistons were listed as underdogs.
The Pistons have been a great team to fade on no rest this season (2-9 SU, 2-9 ATS) and they enter this matchup with six consecutive losses on no rest. For whatever reason, the club hasn’t been able to score in these spots (91.9 PPG) and that’s help produced a 9-2 ‘under’ mark.
L.A. Clippers (38-26 SU, 32-32 ATS) at Memphis (36-28 SU, 32-32 ATS)
This is a very tough game to handicap for a variety of reasons and I’d personally stay away from both teams just based on their form and the scheduling. The Grizzlies are listed as short home favorites (-3) and enter this game with three consecutive losses both SU and ATS. On Sunday, the club was embarrassed 122-109 at home to the Nets as 10½-point favorites. The ‘over’ cashed in that game and is on a 4-0 run for the Grizzlies.
Coincidentally, Los Angeles was humbled last night in a 107-91 loss at Minnesota and now will be playing its third game in four nights at Memphis on Thursday. Prior to beating the Bulls 101-91 last Saturday at the United Center, the Clippers had dropped seven straight games when playing on no rest. Overall, L.A. has gone 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS in back-to-back spots this season.
These teams have met twice this season and they split the pair with both games taking place from the Staples Center. The ‘over’ cashed in each contests and the Clippers are averaging 107.8 PPG in their last four versus the Grizzlies.
Philadelphia (23-40 SU, 38-25 ATS) at Portland (27-35 SU, 26-36 ATS)
This will be the first of four straight games versus the Western Conference for Philadelphia and oddsmakers have opened them as a 10-point road underdog to Portland in this game.
The 76ers gave loyal fans a glimmer of hope this season and they’ve been very competitive but this could be a good time to hop off the “Philly Express.” The club has gone 1-4 in its last five games and all of those losses came by double digits. The backcourt is starting to get exposed defensively especially without Joel Embiid in the middle anymore.
Portland has won and covered three straight and the offense is clicking right now, scoring 114, 130 and 126 during this span. The Trail Blazers are in a real fight to make the playoffs and they can place blame on their poor record versus the East (9-15) especially at home (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS). Philadelphia has gone 7-17 against the West, which includes a 2-8 (5-5 ATS) mark on the road. The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in those games.
Despite being healthy underdogs in this matchup, bettors might lean to the 76ers based on recent meetings. Philadelphia nipped Portland 93-92 on Jan. 20 as a 2½-point home underdog and has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six encounters while winning three of those games. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 during this span and that includes a run of three straight to the low side.
L.A. Lakers (19-45 SU, 27-35-2 ATS) at Phoenix (21-43 SU, 33-29-2 ATS)
It’s rare to see Phoenix (-6½) lay this healthy of a price but it’s justifiable against Los Angeles, who has dropped eight straight games (0-7-1 ATS) and one of those defeats came to Phoenix. In that contest, the Suns hammered the Lakers 137-101 on Feb. 15 as 4½-point home favorites.
Since that win, Phoenix has gone 3-4 but it’s managed to cover five of those games. Some bettors might be hesitant to lay the points in this spot and it’s understandable knowing that the Suns are just 3-7 both SU and ATS when listed as a ‘chalk’ this season.
Defense could be another reason to back off Phoenix, who is ranked 29th in scoring at 112.8 PPG. Even though the Suns have gone 2-1 versus the Lakers, they did drop a 119-108 decision earlier in the season on Nov. 6 at the Staples Center. The ‘over’ has gone 3-0 between the pair this season and is on an 8-2 run in this series. To no surprise, this matchup has the largest total (230) listed on Thursday’s board.
Spurs, Thunder meet in Oklahoma City
By: StatFox.com
The Spurs will be going for their 10th straight win when they face the Thunder on Thursday night.
Not many people realize it, but San Antonio could leap Golden State for the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs. The Spurs are currently 1.5 games back, but the Warriors are struggling and San Antonio has won nine straight. The team’s most recent victory was absurd, as the Spurs were trailing the Kings by 28 and came back to win 114-104 as 11-point home favorites. The Thunder, meanwhile, have been awful lately. Oklahoma City has lost four straight games and the team badly needs a victory on Thursday. That’s not going to be easy for the Thunder, who lost 108-94 when they faced the Spurs in San Antonio on Jan. 31. The Spurs have some nice trends working in their favor in this one, as they are 13-5 ATS when the total is 210 to 210.5 and 26-11 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games since 1996. The Thunder, however have some interesting trends as well. Oklahoma City is 12-3 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive OVERS this season and 21-10 ATS at home on the year as well.
The Spurs might not have covered against the Kings last game, but their win was truly impressive. San Antonio was getting dominated all game, but the team quickly erased a 28-point deficit and still won by double digits. PG Patty Mills (9.6 PPG, 3.4 APG) was the guy that sparked the comeback. Mills had 17 points and 10 assists off the bench, going 6-for-9 from the floor and 4-for-6 from three. If Mills can play even close to as well as he did in that game then it would help. He adds a much-needed scoring boost off the bench. As for the starters, both SF Kawhi Leonard (26.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.9 SPG) and PF LaMarcus Aldridge (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG) will need to do what they do. For Leonard, that means playing the two-way game that everybody has come to expect from him. Leonard should be feeling fresh for this one as well. He rested against the Kings, so the Spurs will be hoping for a big performance from their MVP candidate. Aldridge, meanwhile, must score the ball effectively in this one. He is one of the best inside players in the league, and that should come in handy against a big Thunder frontcourt.
The Thunder are struggling right now and they will need to play a perfect game in order to beat the Spurs on Thursday. PG Russell Westbrook (31.1 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 10.0 APG, 1.6 SPG) will certainly be up to playing well here. Over the past five games, Westbrook is averaging 44.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 7.4 APG and 1.8 SPG. He had 58 points and nine assists against Portland last game, but Oklahoma City did not win that one. He’ll need some help from guys like SG Victor Oladipo (16.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG) C Steven Adams (11.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG) and Enes Kanter (14.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG). Oladipo needs to provide a presence from the wing that can take pressure off of Westbrook. The other two guys must do their part in the paint or San Antonio will absolutely dominate this game.