NBA Knowledge
Oklahoma City-San Antonio
Thunder won last two series games despite trailing after three quarters; they outscored Spurs by 15-7 points in last two 4th quarters. Spurs are 1-3 in last four visits here; Popovich is 2-10 in his career in elimination games on road. Thunder won Game 5 despite turning ball over 20 times (-13). OC improved to 16-43 on arc in last two games, after going 21-72 on arc in frst three games. Seven of last ten series games stayed under. Thunder split their last four home games; Spurs won four of last five on the road.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 11-8, over: 10-9
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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
San Antonio is a 1.5 to 2.5 point road favorite for this must-win game six of the Conference Semifinals vs Oklahoma City. Interesting number given the fact Spurs are 2-5-1 ATS when facing elimination, have been know to sputter on enemy hardwood during postseason laying three or less points. In the last six situations the Spurs are 2-4 against the betting line. Add the fact Spurs haven't exactly been lining bettors' pockets in Oklahoma City at just 3-12 ATS you bet San Antonio at some risk.
Game 6 - Spurs at Thunder
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
For the second time in this series, Oklahoma City went into San Antonio and came out with a hard fought victory this past Tuesday. The Thunder captured a 96-91 win in Game 5 over the Spurs as a 7½-point road underdog and now own a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference semifinals.
All-Star point guard Russell Westbrook led the charge for Thunder, finishing with 35 points, 11 rebounds while his partner in crime Kevin Durant added 23 points. Kawhi Leonard has 26 points for the Spurs while LaMarcus Aldridge posted 21 points in a losing effort.
The Spurs held a 48-43 lead at halftime and looked like they were going to pull away in the third quarter, leading by as many as 13 points but the Thunder kept chipping away and only trailed by three (72-69) entering the final 12 minutes. Oklahoma City outscored the Spurs 26-19 in the fourth quarter and that’s been the story of this series.
The Thunder was often defined as a team that couldn’t finish games but something has changed for the club in this series. In the first five games, OKC has outscored San Antonio by 31 points in the fourth quarter and a lot of that margin has been attributed to the inability of the Spurs scoring down the stretch.
San Antonio scored three points in the final four minutes of Game 5 and if you go back to Game 4, the Spurs only managed six points in the final seven minutes of that loss, which seems next to impossible for a team of their stature.
In Sunday’s piece, I noted that this best-of-seven matchup has become a game of 2-of-2 with each team pitting their two All-Stars against one another.
What’s also clear through the first five games is that the supporting cast for the Thunder have outplayed the Spurs as well, especially in the paint. Oklahoma City outrebounded San Antonio 54-36 on Tuesday behind two youngsters in Enes Kanter (8 points, 13 boards) and Steven Adams (12 points, 11 rebounds).
While Kanter and Adams have been a nice boost for OKC, the Spurs haven’t had any magic from their role players and that’s something that has helped the dynasty during its championship years.
Danny Green has played well in two games but the team has receiving nothing from Manu Ginobili plus I’m wondering if Boris Diaw (4.4 PPG) and Patty Mills (3.8 PPG) are in the doghouse because they’re minutes and stats have both diminished in this series.
The Spurs’ Gregg Popovich is often considered the best coach in the NBA but for the second straight postseason, we’re seeing a rookie head coach (Billy Donovan) making noise again which certainly solidifies the “players trump coaches” argument.
Despite dropping two straight in this series, the Spurs opened as 2½-point road favorites over Thunder in Game 6. As of Wednesday evening, most shops have dropped that number to 1½ points.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert and playoff leader Kevin Rogers isn’t surprised by the shift to Oklahoma City. He said, “The Spurs haven’t performed well on the road in Game 6 of the playoffs trailing 3-2, losing in each of their last two opportunities. In 2011, the Grizzlies tripped up the top-seeded Spurs in the opening round, 99-91 as three-point favorites, while the Thunder ousted San Antonio in the 2012 conference finals, 107-99 as five-point favorite.”
Even though Oklahoma City has won two games outright as an underdog in this series, its overall record as a pup hasn’t been great this season. The club is 3-12 SU and 6-8-1 ATS and that includes a 0-2 mark at home, the loss in Game 3 of this series and earlier in the season to Golden State.
While those stats could have you leaning to San Antonio to stay alive, Rogers doesn’t believe you should ignore the head-to-head encounters between the pair at this venue. “Oklahoma City has won six of its last eight home playoff games against San Antonio since the 2012 Western Conference Finals, but the Spurs have cashed in their only opportunity in this span as a road favorite at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Game 3 of this series, 100-96. The last time these teams played a Game 6 in the playoffs at Oklahoma City, the Spurs prevailed in overtime to win the 2014 Western Conference title, but San Antonio went into that contest leading 3-2,” said Rogers.
Including the outcomes that Rogers mentioned, Oklahoma City is 12-3 both SU and ATS in the last 15 encounters against San Antonio from Chesapeake Energy Arena.
The totals in the first five games of this series have ranged from 199 to 200½ points but oddsmakers sent out an opener of 195 for Game 6. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the first five games and a lot of that has been attributed to San Antonio’s offense or lack thereof.
Since posting 124 points in Game 1, the Spurs have cracked the 100-point mark only once in the last four games, scoring exactly 100 points in their Game 3 victory at Oklahoma City.
Despite averaging 103.4 PPG at home in the playoffs, the Thunder have seen the ‘under’ go 3-2. Including the results from this series, the Spurs have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 in the postseason.
Prior to Game 1, San Antonio was listed as a minus-275 favorite (Bet $100 to win $37) to win this series at the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook while the takeback on Oklahoma City was plus-235 favorite (Bet $100 to win $225).
The Spurs ballooned to minus-900 favorites after blowout out the Thunder in the opener and were still minus-300 when the series was tied 2-2. Now facing elimination, San Antonio has been made a 6/5 underdog (Bet $100 to win $120) while the Thunder are a 5/7 favorite (Bet $100 to win $71) to advance.
If you like to lean to historical numbers in your handicapping, then Oklahoma City would get the nod in this situation. Since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City, the Thunder have held a 3-2 series lead in the playoffs four times and they won all four of those best-of-seven matchups. Make a note that Oklahoma City closed out three of those series in six games while only being forced to a Game 7 once.
And, the Spurs have rallied from a 3-2 deficit only once in their playoff history which occurred in 2008 when they beat the New Orleans Hornets.
If San Antonio stays alive, Game 7 will take place on Sunday from the AT&T Center.
NBA playoffs Betting Preview
By Covers.com
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (+1.5, 195.5)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are one victory away from reaching the Western Conference finals and have two opportunities to get the job done. The Thunder, who lead the series 3-2, aim to end the festivities in Thursday's Game 6, while the San Antonio Spurs visit town in dire need of a victory to force a Game 7.
San Antonio has held double-digit leads in the each of the past two games before wilting under Oklahoma City's late-game siege. "I hope we respond a little angry, with a chip on our shoulder," Spurs guard Danny Green told reporters after Tuesday's 95-91 loss. "If you want to be a championship team, you have to win on the road. Simple as that." The Thunder surprisingly have won two games in San Antonio in the series - the Spurs lost just once at home during the regular season - and small forward Kevin Durant said another defensive effort like the showing in Game 5 is crucial. "Late in the fourth we did a good job of putting a hand up on shots, making them shoot mid-range and we didn't let them get in the paint a lot." Durant told reporters. "That’s what we have to do if we want to win the next one. We have to play defense like that throughout the whole game."
LINE HISTORY: The Thunder opened as 3-point home pups, but bettors like the way OKC has been trending and the line has already moved to +1.5. The total has been bet up one point from 194.5 to 195.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE SPURS (73-18, 49-42 ATS, 38-51-2 O/U): NBA MVP runner-up Kawhi Leonard (26 points, five steals in Game 5) and power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (20 points, nine rebounds) have carried San Antonio during the series with occasional help from shooting guard Danny Green (six 3-pointers in Game 5) and point guard Tony Parker (good outings in Game 3 and 4). But the reserves have been below par and combined for just 11 points on 5-of-18 shooting in Game 5 and getting better efforts from players such as shooting guard Manu Ginobili and center Boris Diaw are a must if San Antonio is to win the next two games. "We haven't had great bench production," Popovich said after Game 5. "We need a couple more people to help us offensively. That would be great."
ABOUT THE THUNDER (62-30, 43-48-1 ATS, 44-48 O/U): Point guard Russell Westbrook had 35 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists in Game 5 and was so superb that everybody overlooked his eight turnovers. "He plays with such force and such passion," Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "I think he's doing a really good job of realizing when he gets so intense, so competitive, so emotional, he's doing a good job of kind of bringing himself back together and understanding there's four other guys out there depending on him." Durant scored 23 points on a series-worst 8-of-21 shooting effort in a dropoff from his spectacular 41-point effort in Game 4.
TRENDS:
* Thunder are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning SU record.
* Spurs are 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Under is 4-0 in Spurs last four games following a SU loss.
* Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City.
CONSENSUS: The public is split almost down the middle for this huge Game 6, with 51 percent of wagers on the underdog Thunder. As for the total, 61 percent of wagers are on the Over.
Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
SAN ANTONIO SPURS (73-18.) at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (62-30)
Sportsbook.ag Line: San Antonio -3.0, Total: 195.5
The Thunder will be looking to finish off the Spurs with a home victory in Game 6 on Thursday.
The Spurs were up by double digits at one point in Game 5, but the Thunder did not back down in that game. Oklahoma City ended up winning 95-91 as a 7.5-point favorite and now has a chance to put San Antonio away with a win.
One thing the Spurs will need to really fix is their rebounding. Oklahoma City won the battle on the glass 63-44 and the Spurs are not going to be able to win games with that type of disparity.
All of the trends in this game happen to favor San Antonio, though. The Spurs are an impressive 10-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss after being a favorite of seven or more versus an opponent over the past two seasons.
They’re also 31-17 ATS off of an upset loss as a home favorite over the past three seasons.
One positive when looking at this game is that the only player listed on the injury report is SF Kyle Singler (Illness) for Oklahoma City. He is not a rotation player for the Thunder, so hopefully injuries will not determine the outcome of this one.
The Spurs seemingly had complete control of this series heading into Game 4, but they have now lost two straight and are facing elimination on Thursday.
PF LaMarcus Aldridge (22.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) has been the Spurs’ x-factor in this series, as he has played horribly in the team’s losses. Over the past two games, Aldridge is averaging just 20.0 PPG on 14-for-39 shooting from the floor.
He was 33-for-44 from the floor in Games 1 and 2 and San Antonio desperately needs him to start playing more efficiently. He was missing some shots that he always makes on Tuesday and it’s important that he gets it going again in Game 6.
SF Kawhi Leonard (22.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 SPG, 1.6 BPG in playoffs) played well in Game 5, finishing the game with 26 points, six boards, four assists and five steals in 39 minutes of action.
Leonard did not play well in Game 4, so it was big for him to find his game on Tuesday. He’ll need to find a way to hold his own offensively against Durant in this one.
One guy that absolutely must show up for San Antonio on Thursday is PG Tony Parker (10.9 PPG, 5.6 APG in playoffs). Parker was miserable in Game 5, finishing with just nine points on 4-for-12 shooting. He is a lot better than that and can’t afford to be dominated by Westbrook once again in this one.
The Thunder are coming off of a tremendous win, as they were down big in San Antonio but ended up stealing a victory.
PG Russell Westbrook (25.3 PPG, 10.7 APG, 7.2 RPG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) is the guy that Oklahoma City has to thank for this 3-2 series lead. He was unstoppable in Game 5, finishing with 35 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists and two steals in 39 minutes of action.
Westbrook was finishing everything around the rim and he was also 3-for-7 from the outside. That was big for him, as he is shooting just 32.8% from three in the postseason. Westbrook will need to stay in attack mode because Tony Parker and the rest of the Spurs guards do not have the speed or athleticism to stay in front of him.
SF Kevin Durant (26.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.8 APG in playoffs) will really need to step it up for the Thunder moving forward, though. Durant is shooting just 42.8% from the floor and 28.1% from three in the playoffs.
He is one of the best shooters in the world and must get back to his normal shooting numbers if the Thunder are going to continue this postseason run.