NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 19

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Toronto at Cleveland

So far, so good for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They shook off a slow start Tuesday night to bury the Toronto Raptors (+11 away) 115-84 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Game 2 takes place Thursday night in Cleveland, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on ESPN.

Toronto had to play Game 1 without starting center Jonas Valanciunas (27.7 PER in the playoffs), who sprained his right ankle in the previous series versus the Miami Heat. Valanciunas is expected to miss Game 2 as well, and might not return at all this series. With zero injured players, Cleveland should be fresh Thursday night after sweeping through the first two rounds. No Cavalier needed to play more than 30 minutes in the opener; LeBron James (25.0 PER) sat the entire fourth quarter after scoring 24 points on 11-of-13 shooting.

The Raptors will only go as far as their shooters will take them, and after showing signs of life in the Miami series, Kyle Lowry (16.3 PER) struggled again in Game 1. Lowry shot 4-of-14 for just eight points, missing all seven of his attempts from behind the arc. As a team, Toronto went 5-of-24 from long range (20.8%).

Thursday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, 201.5)

The Cleveland Cavaliers dismantled the Toronto Raptors in the opening game of the Eastern Conference finals and attempt to remain unbeaten in the postseason when they host Thursday's Game 2. Cleveland is 9-0 in the playoffs and its latest superb performance was a 115-84 trouncing of Toronto in Game 1.

The 31-point margin of victory was the largest in Cavaliers' postseason history and the Raptors tried to put on brave faces after the annihilation. "It's the first to four, and it's one game," Toronto small forward DeMarre Carroll told reporters. "It doesn't matter if you lose by two or you lose by 30. It's only one game." The Raptors were dominated on the boards 45-23 without center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) - who is likely to miss Game 2 as well - and were powerless to defend Cleveland star LeBron James, who scored 24 points on 11-of-13 shooting and is highly motivated to keep the wins coming. "We have a goal, and our goal was not nine wins," James told reporters. "It's just not my focus. I've won nine games in the postseason before, won 14 games in the postseason before. "It's not my goal, and as the leader of this team, I'm going to continue to make sure that these guys understand what our goal is."

LINE HISTORY: Following their dominant performance in Game 1, the Cavs opened as 12-point favorites over the Raptors for Game 2. As of Wednesday evening, the line has not moved off the lofty opening number. The total hit the board at 196 but was raised a full two points Wednesday morning and that is where it currently sits. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (64-33, 50-47 ATS, 48-48-1 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry appeared to be on his game with outings of 36 and 35 to close the Miami series but he was disjointed in Game 1 with just eight points on 4-of-14 shooting - including missing all seven 3-point attempts. Toronto won two of the three regular-season meetings and believes it can compete with Cleveland but Game 1 displayed the opposite as the Raptors were largely uncompetitive. "It's a different series than last series," Toronto coach Dwane Casey told reporters. "We've got to get our minds adjusted and bodies adjusted. The speed of the game is another issue, a quicker pace, a quicker foot speed for this team versus Miami and Indiana, so we've got to make that adjustment."

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (66-25, 43-45-3 ATS, 46-45 O/U): Point guard Kyrie Irving is meshing well with James and badly outplayed Lowry with 27 points on 11-of-17 shooting in the opener. Irving and James haven't always seen eye-to-eye over their two seasons together but James said he is seeing the growth and maturity needed from Irving. "He's grown every single day, every single week, month and over the course of these last two years or year-plus, becoming a leader and becoming a staple of our team," James told reporters. "We all knew how talented the kid was and how talented he is still today, but his growth and what he demands out of all of us, as the point guard, as one of the leaders of the team, that's what's the best part about it."

TRENDS:

* Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Over is 24-5 in Raptors last 29 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Over is 8-2 in Cavaliers last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Cavaliers are picking up 53 percent of the Covers Consensus wagers as of Wednesday evening. It seems as though the public doesn't really like the lofty 12-point spread as you'd expect the percentage to be much higher for a very public team coming off a monster win. The Over is picking up 72 percent of the total wagers - even after the line move up to 196.

Game 2 - Raptors at Cavaliers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The series opener of the Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and Toronto was an expected blowout as the Cavaliers ripped the Raptors, 115-84 to easily cash as 11-point favorites. In spite of Toronto jumping out to an early 7-0 lead and hanging around for the entire first quarter, the Raptors were wiped away by LeBron James and the Cavaliers in the second quarter, 33-16 to trail by 22 points at halftime. Has Cleveland paved the way for a perfect 12-0 record on the way to the NBA Finals or can Toronto show some fight in Game 2 on Thursday?

The Cavaliers didn’t take their first lead in Game 1 until five minutes remaining in the opening quarter at 18-17, while the Raptors held their final advantage at 28-27 before Cleveland ripped off 15 consecutive points. Tyronn Lue’s club took a 66-44 halftime lead, the third straight home game that the Cavaliers have headed into the intermission with an advantage of at least 10 points. Cleveland torched Atlanta in the previous round by knocking down an incredible 77 three-pointers (average of 19.25 per game), but the Cavaliers hit only seven shots from downtown in 20 attempts in Game 1.

James put together one of his most efficient postseason games in his career, connecting on 11-of-13 shots from the floor for 24 points. Kyrie Irving paced Cleveland with 27 points, while Kevin Love scored in double-figures for the ninth straight playoff game with 19 points. No other Cavaliers posted double-digit scoring, but Cleveland’s bench compiled 41 points as the team shot 55% from the floor.

Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan started on fire in Game 1 by hitting his first five field goal attempts, but converted on 4-of-17 attempts the rest of the way for a team-high 18 points. DeRozan’s backcourt mate Kyle Lowry failed to knock down a three-pointer in seven tries, while finishing 4-of-14 from the floor as the Raptors’ guard was held to below 36% for the 12th time in 15 playoff games. Lowry shot 38% from three-point range during the regular season, but his numbers have dipped from downtown to 26% in the postseason (26-of-99), which includes his half-court heave against the Heat at the end of regulation in the conference semifinals opener.

The Raptors have responded well off a loss in the playoffs by posting a 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS record, although all these games in this situation came with Toronto in the favorite role. Dwane Casey’s squad has improved by an average of +11.6 points per game following a loss this postseason, meaning the Raptors will likely score in the mid-90’s if this trend holds true. However, since winning Game 3 at Indiana in the opening round, Toronto owns a 1-5 SU/ATS record in the last six road playoff contests with four of the losses coming by 12 points or more.

The big question going into Game 2 is if Cleveland can rout Toronto once again and easily cover as a double-digit favorite. Going back to the 2013 playoffs, teams off a victory of 29 points or more own a 6-6 SU and 4-8 ATS record, which includes a 2-2 SU/ATS mark in the 2016 postseason. Most recently, the Spurs pounded the Thunder by 32 points to tip off the second round, but OKC rebounded with a one-point victory as seven-point underdogs in Game 2. Dallas responded in the first round following a humiliating 108-70 loss at Oklahoma City to shock the Thunder in Game 2 as 14-point ‘dogs, 85-84.

The Raptors are catching five and eight points in the first quarter and first half respectively for Game 2 and both those are numbers are inflated. While I wouldn’t advise you to take Toronto to win outright on Thursday as a 7/1 underdog, I believe the Raptors (+400) on the money-line in the first half presents great value.

Shifting to the totals perspective, where the Raptors have cashed four consecutive ‘overs’ since a 9-2 start to the ‘under’ in the postseason. David provides his view on the total, “Depending when you bet the total on Game 1, you could’ve hit the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ with the game opening as high as 202 and closing at 198. To be fair the ‘over’ was the right side and it would’ve connected if it wasn’t for a 37-point fourth quarter. After Tuesday’s result, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Game 2 with a total of 196 and that’s been pushed up to 198.”

Cleveland has eclipsed the 100-point mark in all nine victories in the playoffs, resulting in five ‘overs.’ At home, the Cavaliers have given up at least 100 points only once in five tries, coming back in the playoff opener against the Pistons in which Detroit put up 101 points.

David gives his spin on Cleveland’s output, “The offensive production for the Cavaliers could have you leaning to the ‘over’ again in Game 2 and you can certainly make a strong argument for that lean. However, you could argue for the ‘under’ as well based on what we’ve seen from Toronto after a loss. The Raptors haven’t dropped back-to-back games in this year’s postseason and that perfect mark (6-0) is directly attributed to their defense, which has only surrendered 90.3 PPG in these situations. While Cleveland has been nothing short of a juggernaut in the playoffs, a letdown shouldn’t come as a surprise and I’d lean strongly to its team total ‘under’ (105) on Wednesday.”

After the Cavaliers closed as 11-point favorites in Game 1, oddsmakers pushed Cleveland to a 12-point favorite for Thursday’s Game 2. Don’t be surprised if that game closes at 12½ with public money as the Cavaliers have covered four of five games at Quicken Loans Arena in the playoffs. Thursday’s contest tips off at 8:35 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.