NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, May 25th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Cleveland lost Game 3 at home, then was down 10 at half in Game 4, but used a 40-23 third quarter to take Game 4 and a 3-1 series lead- they can end this series here. Cavaliers are 11-1 in playoffs (7-2-1 vs spread in last ten games), 6-0 on road (5-0-1 vs spread). Cleveland is 10-3 in its last 13 games with Boston, winning last three games in Beantown by 23-13-44 points. Celtics lost six of last nine games overall; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games- they were 18-40 on arc in Game 3, then 10-31 in Game 4. With Isaiah Thomas out, they need to make ton of 3’s to stay alive here.
Armadillosports.com
Game 5 - Cavaliers at Celtics
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Eastern Conference Finals seemed like a fait accompli (a done deal for you non-French speakers) after Cleveland rolled Boston in the first two games at TD Garden. The nail was in the coffin in Game 3 when the Cavaliers built a 21-point edge on the Celtics before Boston rallied to stun Cleveland with a late Avery Bradley three-pointer to win as 15½-point underdogs.
The tide seemed like it was turning Boston’s way as the Celtics jumped out to a 57-47 halftime edge in Game 4 at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland regrouped at halftime as the defending champions outscored Boston, 65-42 in the second half to knock off the Celtics, 112-99 to grab a commanding 3-1 series edge and come within one victory of setting up a third straight NBA Finals appearance against Golden State.
For the second straight game, the Celtics cashed as a heavy underdog (+15½), but the offense disappeared in the second half as Marcus Smart went from a 27-point effort in Game 3 to scoring only eight points in Game 4 on 1-of-9 shooting from the floor. Bradley led the Celtics with 19 points, but misfired on 6-of-7 attempts from three-point range, while Boston was outrebounded in the loss, 37-29.
Kyrie Irving took over for Cleveland in the third quarter by scoring 21 third quarter points and establishing a playoff-career high with 42 points. In spite of missing a wide-open dunk on a fast break, LeBron James bounced back from a brutal Game 3 performance to score 34 points on 15-of-27 shooting from the floor. Kevin Love posted a double-double with 17 points and 17 rebounds, as the Cavaliers shot 71% from the floor in the second half and nearly 60% for the game.
The venue shifts back to TD Garden in Beantown on Thursday as the Celtics try to keep their season alive. Leading scorer Isaiah Thomas isn’t returning this postseason after suffering a hip injury in Game 2, as the Celtics just to fix their uneven mark at home. Boston lost the first two games at home to Chicago before winning the next four (only one win came at home) to advance, but Brad Stevens’ team won all four games at TD Garden in the second round against Washington before regressing in the first two losses to Cleveland.
The ‘under’ (215½) connected in Game 4 and the total has now gone 2-2 in this series but VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David could argue that the ‘over’ could easily be 4-0.
He explained, “Bettors riding the low side had to work for a full 48 minutes on Tuesday and anybody riding the ‘over’ has to be a little aggravated with what transpired in the final three minutes. Cleveland had built an 11-point lead (108-97) but the two teams only managed to combine for six points and Boston didn’t try to extend the game.” Oddsmakers sent out a total of 215 for Game 6 and the number was quickly pushed up to 216 at most betting shops.
David said, “I’m not surprised by the slight upward move and with Boston facing elimination, you have to believe that it will do everything to stay alive on Thursday. The Celtics have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 at home in the playoffs and the defense (110.8 PPG) has been very suspect. Plus, Cleveland has shot better from distance (42.6%) on the road in the postseason, which has helped them average 116 PPG.”
“The Cavaliers have gone ‘under’ their team total in the last two games at home, but that number was hovering between 115 and 116 points. For this matchup, the Cavaliers are looking at 112 to cash and the ‘over’ has a good shot to connect based on what we’ve seen in the two games played at TD Garden. Cleveland posted 117 and 130 points in those victories and I believe they can get there again. I liked the way the Cavs played in Game 3 by only taking 22 attempts from 3-point land, compared to 39 in Game 3’s loss to Boston. The Celtics frontcourt is undermanned and that was evident with Cleveland scoring 58 points inside the paint in Game 4. If the Cavs get anywhere near that number again, they’ll easily drop triple digits and come very close to putting up totals close to their first two contests of this series.”
Cleveland doesn’t mess around in close-out games since James’ return to the Cavaliers in 2014. The Cavs are 9-0 in this stretch, which includes the Game 7 victory at Golden State to capture the franchise’s first championship. Eight of the nine wins came away from Quicken Loans Arena, including a pair of close calls in the first two rounds of this postseason against Indiana and Toronto by four and seven points, respectively. In five of the last six close-out contests, the Cavaliers have won by seven points or fewer.
Meanwhile, Boston struggled as a home underdog by compiling a 1-2 mark this season. If you go back to the 2015-16 season, the Celtics went 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS. In the only two home elimination games under Stevens, Boston beat Washington in Game 7 in the previous round, while losing to Atlanta in the opening round in 2015.
VegasInsider.com NBA handicapper Tony Mejia provides his views heading into Game 5, “Irving's 42-point Game 4 explosion had many declaring that he's a better running mate than Scottie Pippen ever was in this LeBron James-Michael Jordan narrative people insist on harping on, which illustrates how bored we are with these Eastern Conference Finals. By rallying from a substantial second-quarter deficit with James on the bench with four fouls, Cleveland took all the remaining mystery out of the series now that it has three opportunities to get one last win, but it will be interesting to see what killer instinct they pack for this Game 5.”
“Boston is just 5-4 SU/ATS at home this postseason and was embarrassed by the Cavs in each of the first two games when both teams were at full strength to open the Eastern Conference finals, but it seems overly reactionary to see them open as a double-digit underdog at TD Garden for the first time all season in Game 5,” Mejia notes. “They're not the most talented group, but they've proven resilient. It wouldn't be overly surprising to see this extended one more game. Cleveland closed as a double-digit favorite on the road five times this season against the Lakers, Pelicans, Nets and 76ers, twice. They won four outright, but failed to cover in any of the games.”
The Cavaliers are currently at 2/1 odds to win the NBA title at Sportsbook.ag, while the Celtics are listed at a hefty 2500/1 to beat Cleveland in three straight games and then have enough in the tank to defeat Golden State four times. Game 5 from Boston tips off at 8:30 PM EST on Thursday and can be seen on TNT.
Thursday's Eastern Conference Game 5 Betting Preview
Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (+10, 215.5)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are one victory away from joining the Golden State Warriors in a high-profile NBA Finals' rematch. Second-seeded Cleveland looks to sew up its spot when it visits the top-seeded Boston Celtics in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals on Thursday.
The Cavaliers took a 3-1 lead with a 112-99 victory in Game 4 as point guard Kyrie Irving (42 points) and small forward LeBron James (34) scored at will. Cleveland looked in jeopardy of returning to Boston with the series tied before a torrid second half in which it outscored the Celtics 65-42. The Celtics haven't found the home floor to be much help against the Cavaliers as they lost the first two games by an average of 28.5 points, including a 130-86 setback in Game 2. "We're humble enough to know that we haven't played well at home, and we want to give our home crowd a better outing than we did the past two games," forward Jae Crowder told reporters. "We're right there where we want to be, we're locked in."
LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as 8.5-point road favorites and by Wednesday night that point spread was bet up to 10. The total hit the betting board at 214.5 and has been bumped up to 215.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Cavaliers - C E. Tavares (Out For Season, hand), PG K. Felder (Out Indefinitely, leg).
Celtics - PF A. Johnson (Probable, shoulder), PG I. Thomas (Out For Season, hip), SF J. Crowder (Probable, thigh), SF J. Brown (Questionable, hip).
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (62-32 SU, 43-47-4 ATS, 55-38-1 O/U): Irving tweaked an ankle but didn't seem to be the least bit affected as he scored 33 of his points during an impressive 19-minute stretch. "He's a special kid," James said of Irving. "He's a special talent. As the stakes get higher and higher, his game gets higher and higher, but it was nothing surprising for me." James overcame early foul trouble to make 15-of-27 shots after suffering through a porous Game 3 in which he tallied just 11 points on 4-of-13 shooting.
ABOUT THE CELTICS (62-37 SU, 51-46-2 ATS, 49-46-4 O/U): Guard Marcus Smart was a Game 3 hero with 27 points as he capably stepped up in the wake of Isaiah Thomas' season-ending hip injury. But he was unable to follow up that outing as he had just eight points on 1-of-9 shooting in Game 4 for his third single-digit deficit of the series. Crowder battled through a groin injury in Game 4 and produced 18 points and eight rebounds and is averaging 15.5 points and 7.8 rebounds in the series.
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 8-1-1 in Celtics last 10 home games.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 53 percent of users are siding with the road favorite Cleveland Cavaliers and 69 percent are on the Over.
Cavaliers, Celtics meet in Boston
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
The Cavaliers look to close out the Celtics on the road in Game 5 on Thursday.
Would a Celtics win in Game 4 have been as stunning as their historic upset in Game 3? Would it have been more stunning? We’ll never know for sure, as the Celtics lost 112-99 on Tuesday night in Cleveland (BOS +15.5), but they did once again put up a good fight without star PG Isaiah Thomas. Boston led 57-47 at halftime on the strength of good ball movement on offense and a focused defensive effort, but nothing could have prepared them for the maelstrom of Cavaliers shooting that came their way in the second half. Cleveland shot a ridiculous 71% from the field after halftime, deliberately chipping away at the Boston lead and then deliberately building their own, nearly covering the enormous 15.5-point spread by the game’s end. As the teams prepare for Game 5 in Boston on Thursday night, Celtics fans can only hope that their team plays like they have in the last two games and not like they did in Games 1 and 2 at home, when the Cavaliers won by an average of 28.5 points. Since 1996, home underdogs of 10 or more points revenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 100 points, and also coming off a cover and a straight up loss as an underdog (BOS) are 46-17 ATS. Weirdly, though, underdogs off a cover and a straight up loss as an underdog are 17-56 ATS in games involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750 in the same since-1996 timeframe. PG Kyrie Irving injured his ankle in Game 4 but stayed in the game, and he is probable for Game 5. Thomas remains out for Boston, and SF Jaylen Brown is questionable with a hip pointer. PF Amir Johnson and SF Jae Crowder are probable to play despite being banged up.
Without Thomas (23.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 6.7 APG; all player stats), the Celtics are quite shorthanded on offense. It has been noticeable, however, that they’re better on defense, which shouldn’t be surprising. The non-Thomas members of the Celtics backcourt are known to be tenacious defenders, a group that includes SG Avery Bradley (16.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG), PG Marcus Smart (8.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.5 SPG) and PG Terry Rozier (5.4 PPG). Of course, none of them could do anything to remotely slow down Irving on Tuesday—he scored 42 points—and Thomas couldn’t have done much worse. Bradley has led the Celtics in FGA in both games since Thomas got injured, and has struggled a bit to find his rhythm while jump shooting. He had 19 points on 7-of-19 shooting in Game 4 and was 1-of-7 from three. Three other Celtics scored at least 15 points, with Crowder (13.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.1 SPG) scoring 18, C Al Horford (15.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.6 APG) scoring 16 and C Kelly Olynyk (9.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG) had 15. Horford, through whom the Celtics now run even more of their offense, added seven assists but only three rebounds. Smart came back to earth after shooting 7-of-10 from three in Game 3, as he was 1-of-9 from the field and 1-of-5 from deep en route to eight points. Brown (4.9 PPG) and PF Jonas Jerebko (3.6 PPG) each added nine points off the bench.
The Cavaliers’ second-half dominance in Game 4 would not have come about without the amazing performance of Irving (24.6 PPG, 5.5 APG, 1.3 SPG), who was breathtaking in the third quarter with 21 of his 42 total points coming in the period. He was devastatingly efficient from the field, shooting 15-of-22 from the field and making four of seven three-pointers. And while he stole the show, SF LeBron James (32.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 6.9 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.4 BPG) had an excellent night despite picking up an unprecedented four fouls in the first half, scoring 34 points on 15-of-27 shooting to go with five rebounds and six assists. It was especially important that he play well, considering the 11-point dud he put up in Game 3. Always overlooked in this offense, PF Kevin Love (17.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG) once again had a great night, too. He had 17 points and was dominant on the boards with 17 rebounds. It was his first game in this series with fewer than 20 points, but clearly he made his presence felt in another way. Outside of the Big 3, no Cavalier scored more than seven points on Tuesday. Those seven belonged to Tristan Thompson (9.5 PPG, 9.7 RPG), who also had seven boards. SG J.R. Smith (6.7 PPG) rounded out the starting lineup with five points. PG Deron Williams (4.9 PPG) and SG Iman Shumpert (4.7 PPG) combined for seven points, while SG Kyle Korver (6.3 PPG) scored no points on no shots in 20 minutes. With Irving unlikely to give such a Herculean effort two games in a row, the role players will need to step up in Game 5.
Thursday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Cleveland vs. Boston
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Cleveland (-10.5), Total set at 217.5
The long awaited “three-match” between Cleveland and Golden State is likely days away, and with the Warriors sitting at home and relaxing, the Cavaliers would love to do the same as soon as possible.
Boston has proved to be a much tougher defensive test for Cleveland since Isaiah Thomas went on the shelf, but the Cavs were able to put the hammer down in the 2nd half of Game 4 and aren't about to let up tonight.
Cleveland was victimized by lofty point spreads at home in Games 3 and 4 as they went 0-2 ATS and just 1-1 SU.
But there is no question their performance in the 2nd half of Game 3 was a complete anomaly, and there will be no more taking it easy or screwing around from Cleveland's perspective.
They blew out the Celtics in the first two games in Boston and tonight likely won't be any different.
Boston fought valiantly in the two games in Cleveland, but down 3-1 in the series now, they know their fate has been sealed.
Although there is a chance they come out strong and hang tough one more time in front of their home crowd, if this game gets out of hand by the time the 3rd quarter rolls around, Boston will likely have no problem raising the white flag.
They simply don't have the offensive talent on the floor to match up with this Cavs team and that makes any sort of comeback bid very tough. Covering the number in Games 3 and 4 was nice, but the end of the road is near for Boston and it should come tonight.
While some may argue that this is another instance of Cleveland being saddled with another lofty spread, I beg to differ as this team – especially LeBron – knows how to employ that deadly killer instinct in close out games and that should be on full display this evening.
The Cavs won Games 1 and 2 here by 13 and 44 points, and are 1-0-1 ATS in close out games already in these playoffs. In fact, if you go back to LeBron's return in 2014, the Cavs have gone a perfect 2-0 ATS in close out games in the Conference Finals and won those games by 26 and 30 points.
LeBron knows this is the time of the year to really start getting serious and to not give his opponents any sort of life in making things tough for the Cavs.
A short-handed Boston team should suffer a similar fate tonight, as Cleveland adds another ATS win to their 6-0-1 ATS run on the road.
Best Bet: Cleveland -10.5