NBA Betting News and Notes Thursday, May 26

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oklahoma at Golden State

The Golden State Warriors won 73 games during the regular season, but if they don't win Thursday night, their playoffs will be over. Golden State lost 94-118 to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, dropping the cash as 3-point road favorites to fall behind 3-1 in their Western Conference final.

There's no question that the Warriors aren't the same team that went into the postseason as – 150 favorites to defend their championship. Stephen Curry doesn't seem to have shaken off the injuries he suffered during the first-round series against the Houston Rockets; the two-time and reigning MVP had another off-night Tuesday, scoring just 19 points on 6-of-20 shooting, including 2-of-10 from long range.

But give credit to the Thunder for putting the boots to Golden State. They upset the San Antonio Spurs in the previous round, and now they're 10-5 ATS during these playoffs after blowing out the Warriors in back-to-back games. Russell Westbrook had another triple-double Tuesday night, posting 36 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. That's five straight games with at least 10 assists for Westbrook, and 10 out of the 15 games he's played in the postseason.

Thursday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-7.5, 220)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have made the defending champion Golden State Warriors look like a lottery team in the last two games and are on the verge of advancing to the NBA Finals. The Warriors will try to stave off elimination and pull within 3-2 in the series when they host Game 5 on Thursday.

The Thunder have been more aggressive, more athletic, faster and much better at executing on both ends of the floor in 3 1/2 of the first four games of the series and scored 72 first-half points in each of the last two contests while winning both by an average of 26 points. “You’re not always going to play a perfect game,” Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. “You have to have some resiliency and some toughness and some fight to you. I think our team has it.” The Warriors looking for some resiliency as they attempt to stay in the series and MVP Stephen Curry insisted that the team wasn’t done. "The series isn't over," Curry told reporters. "We've got to believe in ourselves. It's obviously frustration. It's a terrible feeling once again not stepping up and being ourselves and playing our game. But I think we're a special team. This isn't how we're going to go out."

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 7.5-point favorites, with their backs against the wall for Game 5. The books dropped the line down to -7 on Wednesday morning and that is where it sits at the time of publication of this preview. The total opened at 221 and has dropped sharply down to 219.5 during the opening 12 hours on the board. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (66-31, 47-49-1 ATS, 46-51 O/U): Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been strong in the series, and Westbrook filled up the boxscore with his first triple-double of the postseason with 36 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in the 118-94 Game 4 triumph. “Russell plays with incredible passion,” Donovan told reporters. “He has such great force and great will. He’s a really high basketball IQ player. He sees a lot of things going on out there. His effort and his energy throughout the course of the entire game, with our team, was terrific.” Westbrook is averaging 27.3 points, 11.8 assists and 3.8 steals in the series.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (82-14, 53-41-2 ATS, 51-44-1 O/U): Curry had one burst in the third quarter of Game 2 that propelled Golden State to its lone win in the series but went 5-of-21 from 3-point range in the last two games and committed six turnovers in Game 4. The MVP could use more help from All-Star Draymond Green, who heard boos all night from Oklahoma City fans on Tuesday after avoiding a suspension for kicking Thunder center Steven Adams in the groin and matched Curry with six turnovers while going 1-of-7 from the floor. “I bring the energy to this team, and I have not been that," Green told reporters. “I think our energy goes as my energy goes, and I've been awful. ... At the end of the day, I know I've got to be better in Game 5.”

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Home team is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The early returns for the Consensus are 52 percent of the picks on the Thunder and 66 percent of the wagers are on the Over.

Game 5 - Thunder at Warriors
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Where have all of Billy Donovan’s critics gone? The first-year NBA head coach is only five wins away from becoming just the second coach to win a championship in college and pro basketball, an accomplishment that’s only been pulled off by Larry Brown at Kansas (1988) and with the Detroit Pistons (2004).

Donovan took a lot of criticism during the regular season when Oklahoma City appeared to clearly be a step (or two) behind San Antonio and Golden State in the Western Conference. Many pundits went so far as to say the two-time national-title winner at the University of Florida was in over his head as an NBA coach.

Well, Donovan is clearly pulling the right strings recently, as the Thunder have won seven of their last nine games, which have happened to come against the Spurs and Warriors. The last two victories over Golden State have come by 52 combined points.

The narrative for OKC in its previous playoff exits have centered around shot selection, poor decisions and Russell Westbrook not getting Kevin Durant the ball enough. Westbrook, a high-volume shooter who has spent his entire career being maligned for his score-first mentality as a point guard, is suddenly playing high-IQ basketball.

Hell, he’s even verbally discussing with the media how important it is for him to get others involved. Now that is a revelation and Billy D might have something to do with it.

Whatever the case, Oklahoma City (66-31 straight up, 47-49-1 against the spread) dealt out woodshed treatment to the defending champs for the second straight time in Tuesday’s 118-94 scalp as a 1.5-point home underdog. The 212 combined points fell ‘under’ the 221-point total in what was a gut-wrenching defeat for ‘over’ backers.

There were only 36 combined points scored in the fourth quarter. The Thunder alone scored 42 points in the second quarter. As I checked in-game lines during commercial breaks throughout the third stanza, the total was always in the 230s. Golden State had scored 26, 27 and 29 points in the first three quarters, only to be limited to 12 in the final 12 minutes for its lowest-scoring quarter of the entire season.

All five OKC starters scored in double figures. Westbrook was nothing short of sensational, recording a triple-double with 36 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists and four steals. Durant produced 26 points, 11 boards, four assists and four steals, while Serge Ibaka contributed 17 points, seven rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

Andre Roberson is averaging only 5.3 points and 5.0 rebounds per game in these playoffs, but he exploded in Game 4 for 17 points, 12 rebounds, five steals, two blocked shots and three assists without a turnover. Steven Adams finished with 11 points, seven boards, two assists, two steals and one block, while Dion Waiters had 10 points, three boards and three assists.

In the losing effort, Klay Thompson paced Golden State with 26 points, five rebounds and three steals. His hot shooting in the third quarter helped the Warriors slice a 17-point halftime deficit down to six at the 4:20 mark, but they would get no closer.

Steph Curry struggled mightily with more turnovers (six) than assists (five). The two-time MVP hit only 6-of-20 shots from the field and 2-of-10 from 3-point range. Curry finished with 19 points. The only other Warrior in double figures was Harrison Barnes with 11 points.

Draymond Green, believed by many to be the backbone of this team who always brings fire and intensity, was inexplicably absent for a second straight game. In Game 3, Green had six points, four rebounds, three assists and four turnovers while missing nine of his 10 shots from the field and registering a deplorable plus-minus ratio of -43.

The Michigan State product was equally inept in Game 4. Green made only 1-of-7 shots to leave him in a 2-for-16 shooting slump. He finished with six points, 11 rebounds, three steals, one block and two assists compared to six turnovers. To give you an idea of how dismal those numbers are, consider that Green is (even with his Games 3 and 4 stats included) still averaging 15.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 2.0 blocked shots and 1.6 steals per game in these playoffs. His assists-to-turnovers ratio was 81/27 before producing more giveaways than helpers in back-to-back tilts at OKC.

For Thursday’s Game 5 at Oracle Arena in Oakland, the Westgate SuperBook opened Golden State (82-14 SU, 53-41-2 ATS) as an eight-point favorite with a total of 221 points. Those numbers were sent out late Tuesday night after OKC’s blowout victory.

By Wednesday afternoon, however, the Warriors were favored by seven and the total was down to 220 points. Then by early Wednesday night, Golden State was back to being a 7.5-point ‘chalk.’ Gamblers can take the Thunder to win outright for a monster +275 return (risk $100 to win $275). For first-half wagers, Steve Kerr’s team is favored by five points with a 112.5-point tally. OKC is +240 on the money line for the first half.

These consecutive losses represent the first back-to-back defeats for Golden State since last year’s NBA Finals. While setting an NBA-record with 73 regular-season wins, the Warriors were a perfect 9-0 in bounce-back spots. Likewise, they had responded with three wins in their postseason games coming off a loss prior to Tuesday.

Trailing 3-1 in the series, Golden State is now the +250 underdog to win the series (risk $100 to win $250). OKC is the -300 favorite.

VegasInsider.com’s Kevin Rogers offered up these numbers for teams facing 3-1 deficits: “Nine teams in NBA history have overcome a 3-1 series deficit in the playoffs, as the Warriors are looking to become the 10th squad in this class. Seven of those nine clubs won Game 5 at home with the last team to accomplish this feat being the Rockets last season, who shocked the Clippers with three consecutive victories.”

Rogers continued, “Since 2013, five road teams have had the opportunity to close out a series with a 3-1 advantage, as the Clippers were the last team to fall in this category in 2015. Los Angeles was tripped up at Houston as three-point favorites in the conference semifinals before eventually melting down and getting knocked out. The last squad to win a Game 5 on the road with a 3-1 series lead was Washington in the 2014 opening round against Chicago, while road underdogs up 3-1 in a playoff series have posted a 3-1 ATS record in the last four postseasons.”

VI’s Chris David, who predicted OKC to win the series for a +400 return, was surprised when OKC was at -280 (risk $100 to win $33) for the series price early Wednesday morning. Since then, the number for Thunder has gone up to -300 as noted above.

David explained, “To put things in perspective, the Trail Blazers were 200/1 underdogs to the Warriors after facing a 3-1 series deficit in this year’s conference semifinals. It’s well understood that Portland isn’t on the same level as Golden State but most would agree that the Trail Blazers showed some fire while losing and the same can’t be said for the Warriors in their last two games.”

Golden State has won 46 of its 49 home games, compiling a 28-21 spread record. The Warriors have posted an 11-5 ATS record in 16 games as single-digit home favorites.

OKC owns a 28-20 SU record and a 22-26 ATS mark in its road assignments. The Thunder is 7-7 ATS with four outright wins in 14 games as a road underdog.

The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the four games in this series, with the ‘over’ making its lone appearance in Game 3. The ‘under’ went 2-1 in three regular-season meetings, so it is 5-2 in the seven head-to-head encounters between these West rivals this year.

The ‘over’ is 51-44-1 overall for the Warriors, 26-23 in their home contests. However, the ‘under’ is 5-3 in their eight home playoff games.

The ‘under’ is 51-46 overall for the Thunder, but the ‘over’ has hit at a 26-22 clip in their road outings. The ‘under’ is 4-3 in OKC’s seven postseason road assignments.

David had these thoughts on how the totals have gone in the West finals going into Game 5: “I thought the total outcome for Game 4 was going to be tight and it turned out to be a bad beat, which was directly attributed to Golden State’s offensive collapse in the fourth quarter (12 points). The ‘over’ (222) was the right side and after getting 125 points at the half, needing only 98 points in the final 24 minutes between this pair seemed like a formality. This was the second time in this series that we’ve seen Golden State have a horrendous final 12 minutes (Game 1) and threfore effort affect the game total as well. Including Tuesday’s result, the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 through the first four games but based on the droughts from the Warriors, the ‘over’ could easily be 3-1.”

David added, “Fast forward to Thursday and the total for Game 5 is hovering around 220 points and if you’re leaning to the high side in this game, then you better hope OKC stays off the free throw line. Normally, these freebies help ‘over’ bets but what it’s done is keep Golden State out of its rhythm. The Warriors can post 30-plus points in a quarter on any given night, but they’ve only managed to eclipse that mark five times in this series out of a possible 16 quarters while Oklahoma City has done so six times. The Thunder have combined for 251 points in their two blowout victories and over 25 percent (64) came from the charity stripe. Golden State has been able to control the flow better at home and I’d expect them to connect on Thursday.”

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Before Wednesday’s Game 5 of the East finals, Sportsbook.ag had Cleveland listed as the +125 favorite to win this year’s NBA Finals. OKC was at +130, followed by Golden State (4/1) and Toronto (30/1). The Raptors were at 200/1 going into Game 3 after losing in blowout fashion to the Cavs in the first two games.

Sportsbook has the following odds for players to win NBA Finals MVP honors. LeBron James is the +180 ‘chalk.’ The next-shortest odds belong to Durant (+220), Westbrook (+280), Curry (5/1), Kyrie Irving (8/1), Green (30/1), Kevin Love (30/1), Ibaka (40/1), Thompson (50/1), Adams (50/1), J.R. Smith (65/1), DeMar DeRozan (75/1), Waiters (100/1) and Tristan Thompson (100/1).

Sportsbook’s head oddsmaker Peter Childs provided VI with these potential series prices in the NBA Finals: OKC -130 vs. Cleveland, OKC -800 vs. Toronto, Golden State -300 vs. Cleveland and Golden State -1200 or higher vs. Toronto. Childs told VI, “Even though the Cavaliers would have home court in the finals and LeBron has owned Durant, I believe the Thunder are the better team and would make them a slight favorite here. If the Warriors overcome this deficit, I believe the gambling world would be that much more impressed with this team and that would warrant the higher prices versus the Cavaliers. If the Raptors advance, their only accomplishment would be beating an overrated Cavs team and that’s why they would be sizable ‘dogs in either matchup versus OKC or Golden State.”

According to a Wednesday report from the Chicago Sun-Times quoting an anonymous player, Chicago center Joakim Noah has informed teammates that he’s going to leave the Bulls via free agency this offseason. Noah has been a huge part of the organization’s success since coming into the league nine seasons ago. The University of Florida product is reportedly not on good terms with Chicago GM Gar Forman. Noah’s agent denied the accuracy of the report early Wednesday night.

Unless you’re a huge OKC fan, I would assume that most people would like to be able to see a Game 6 between the Thunder and Warriors this weekend. There is a huge bright side to the series ending Thursday night, however. It would signal that I don’t have to listen to Chris Weber’s voice and his unfathomably annoying analysis for a long time. And that would be GREAT!

Warriors look to stay alive
By Sportsbook.ag

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (66-31) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (82-14)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -7, Total: 219.5

The Warriors will be looking to keep their season alive with a home victory over the Thunder in Game 5 on Thursday.

Golden State has been embarrassed in this series, as the team lost its two games in Oklahoma City by a total of 52 points. The Warriors have allowed Oklahoma City to just completely dominate on both ends of the floor, but one area where they must improve is on the glass. Oklahoma City has outrebounded Golden State by 33 over the past two contests and the Warriors are not giving themselves a chance to win with that type of poor effort. They are, however, 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS when hosting the Thunder over the past three seasons.

One trend that favors Oklahoma City is the fact that Golden State is a miserable 11-28 ATS in home games after trailing its past two games by 10 or more points at the half since 1996. The Warriors are 26-11 ATS when revenging a loss versus an opponent over the past two seasons and 29-15 ATS after one or more consecutive UNDERS this season.

Both teams will be healthy coming into this one, so injuries should not factor into the final score.

The Thunder have been playing some lights out basketball recently and SF Kevin Durant (27.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 3.3 APG in playoffs) has taken his game to another level for Oklahoma City. Durant has always been a phenomenal player offensively, but he has emerged as a two-way force in these playoffs. He has blocked three shots in each of the past two games for the Thunder and he also had four steals in Game 4. If he can continue to impact the game on both ends of the floor then Oklahoma City should be able to finish off Golden State.

PG Russell Westbrook (26.0 PPG, 11.1 APG, 6.7 RPG, 2.3 SPG in playoffs) has also been unbelievable for Oklahoma City. He has really come out with some fire, as he wants to prove to the world that he is the better point guard than Stephen Curry. It’s hard to argue otherwise at the moment, as Westbrook is averaging 33.0 PPG and 11.5 APG over the past two contests and has played lockdown defense on Curry all series. He’ll need to keep up the intensity moving forward.

The Warriors looked like the best team ever to play during the regular season, but they have not shown up against the Thunder in this series. Two guys that absolutely must step it up in Game 5 are PG Stephen Curry (24.5 PPG, 5.5 APG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) and PF Draymond Green (15.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 6.1 APG, 2.0 BPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs).

Curry was the first unanimous MVP in league history this season, but he has been badly outplayed by Russell Westbrook in this series. Curry hit rock bottom in Game 4, finishing with just 19 points on 6-for-20 shooting from the floor and 2-for-10 shooting from three. He is one of the best shooters in the world and he’ll need to start acting like it on Thursday, as his team is one loss away from elimination.

Green, meanwhile, was an All-Star this year and is averaging just 6.0 PPG over the past two contests. He has been getting torched on both ends of the floor and needs to simplify things on Thursday. If he does not show up then Golden State’s remarkable season will have all been a waste.