NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, May 4th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Celtics/Wizards both played three starters 41:00+ in Boston’s game 2 OT win two nites ago; Wizards’ bench is now -90 in series. Washington is +17 in 38:00 Morris has been on floor in series, -39 without him. Home team won last six series games; Boston lost by 25-15 points in last two visits here. Four of last five series games went over total. Thomas scored 53 points Tuesday on his late sister’s 23rd birthday; can he keep up his amazing pace? Celtics are 32-75 on arc in series. League-wide, over is 6-1 so far in this round of the playoffs. Boston has now won six games in row since being down 2-0 to Chicago;
No one on Utah scored more than 13 points in 106-94 loss in Game 1; Hayward was 4-15, Jazz was 9-29 on arc. Golden State won its first five playoff games by total of 84 points (3-2 vs spread); they won eight of last nine games with Utah- under is 6-0-1 in last seven series tilts. Jazz covered Game 1; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 games overall. Warriors are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight home games- they’ve won six games in row overall (4-2 vs spread). Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games overall. At some point, Warriors’ biggest potential enemy might become boredom.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Boston at Washington
To be clear, this series is far from over. But Washington can’t be in a good place mentally right now, not after getting out to huge first-half leads in both Games 1 and 2 at Boston, only to lose both contests. Even worse, bettors who took the Wizards in Game 2 were left with a gut-wrenching defeat that was just flat-out wrong on so many levels. Just as it did in the series opener, Scott Brooks’s team raced out to a double-digit advantage in the first quarter. In doing so, the Wizards cashed money-line tickets for their backers in both the first quarter (+135) and first half (+150). However, after trailing 42-29 going into the second quarter, Boston sliced the deficit to three by intermission. But Washington responded at the start of the third quarter with a 13-3 run and held a double-digit lead for more than eight minutes. Boston took its first lead since it was 3-2 on Avery Bradley’s 3-ball with 7:03 remaining in the final stanza. The Wizards recovered nicely, though, and led by six with 2:26 left until Isaiah Thomas drained a trey. After getting a stop, Terry Rozier buried a 24-footer to pull even at 110-110. Wall countered by making one of two free throws, only to see Thomas hit a 20-foot jumper to put the Celtics in front by one. Next, Otto Porter Jr. buried a 3-ball for a two-point Washington lead with 32 ticks left. Thomas tied the game with a pair of free throws, and then Wall and Bradley Beal missed potential game winners to prompt an overtime session.
In OT, Washington’s Kelly Oubre Jr. started the scoring with a 3-pointer, but Boston scored eight unanswered points to go ahead by five. Oubre cut the deficit to three with a putback bucket off an offensive board at the 1:28 mark. But Boston scored the last seven points to cover the number in miraculous fashion as a five-point ‘chalk.’ The 248 combined climbed ‘over’ the 218.5-point total, but we should note that the ‘over’ was already winner in regulation when there were 228 combined points scored.
On the day that would’ve been his younger sister’s 23rd birthday if she hadn’t tragically passed away in a one-car crash last month, Thomas scored 53 points on 18-of-33 shooting from the field. He also had four rebounds, four assists and three steals. Al Horford contributed 15 points, 12 rebounds, three assists, two blocked shots and one steal. However, for those backing Horford’s proposition bet to score ‘over’ 15.5 points, came up on the losing end. Bradley and Jae Crowder added 14 points apiece, while Rozier tallied 12 points, six board and four assists without a turnover. Rozier also had a team-best +25 plus-minus rating.
Washington had seven players score in double figures led by Wall, who finished with 40 points, 13 assists, three steal, three rebounds and three blocked shots. Beal, who had scored 27 points or more in four straight games, had only 14 points. The former one-and-done Florida Gator hit just 4-of-15 attempts from the field and 1-of-9 from 3-point range. Beal also had five rebounds and four assists, but he coughed up six turnovers. After leaving Game 1 midway through the second quarter and not returning due to a turned ankle, Markieff Morris produced 16 points, six boards, two steals and one block before fouling out. Marcin Gortat finished with 14 points, 10 boards and two blocks before also fouling out. Porter had 13 points, nine rebounds, four assists and two steals despite injuring his arm/elbow on a hard fall in the first half. Oubre tallied 12 points and seven boards, while Jason Smith added 10 points.
As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had Washington (53-37 straight up, 45-44-1 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 219. Gamblers could take the Celtics to win outright for a +195 payout (risk $100 to win $195). For first-half wagers, the Wizards were favored by four points with a 106.5-point tally.
Washington owns a 33-11 SU record and a 25-19 ATS mark in its home games this year.
Boston (59-31 SU, 46-42-2 ATS) has thrived on the road all season, producing a 26-18 SU record to go with a 26-16-2 ATS mark. The Celtics have won four in a row on the road both SU and ATS, including three scalps at Chicago in the first round of the playoffs by margins of 17, 9 and 22 points.
Since losing Games 1 and 2 at home to Chicago, Brad Stevens’s squad has ripped off six consecutive wins both SU and ATS. All six wins have been by nine points or more and five have come by double-digit margins.
Boston has been an underdog 18 times season, compiling a 10-8 spread record.
Boston and Washington have now met six times this year. The home team has won and covered the spread in all six of those encounters (four in Boston, two in Washington). The ‘over’ is 4-2 in those six contests.
The ‘over’ has hit at a 5-2-1 rate for the Wizards in these playoffs, including three straight. The ‘over’ is 56-33-1 overall for the Wizards, 26-18 in their home contests.
Boston has seen the ‘over’ go 5-3 in its postseason games to date. The ‘over’ is 44-42-4 overall for the Celtics, but the ‘under’ is 24-18-2 in their road assignments. They’ve watched the ‘under’ cash in all three of their road playoff games.
The ‘over’ has cashed in each of the first two games in this series and the oddsmakers pushed the number up to 219 for Game 3.VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David offered up his thoughts on the total for Thursday:
“I believe the public will press the ‘over’ in Game 3 and based on what we’ve seen from both teams, it’s hard to argue to the low side. The pair combined to shoot 70 bombs from 3-point land on Tuesday, which is a ridiculous number but that’s the new-NBA we’re watching these days. Game 2 also received some help from the officials as both teams went to the free throw line 56 times,” said David.
“While another shootout is expected, I would urge bettors to keep some things in mind before pressing the ‘over’ on Thursday. Boston has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 on the road in the playoffs this season and the club is 7-1 to the low side under Brad Stevens. The Celtics are only averaging 95 PPG during this span and they were held to 108 and 93 to Washington this season. Even though the Wizards were torched in the first two games from TD Garden, they held the Hawks to 102.3 PPG in the first round. And if you look back at Washington’s recent playoff numbers at home, they’ve held eight of their last 13 opponents under 100 in the postseason. As much as you don’t want to fade Boston, considering its team total under (107) in Game 3 could be a lean.”
The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag is Boston -480, Washington +380 (risk $100 to win $380).
The offshore website has Boston’s odds to win the NBA Finals at 12/1, while Washington’s future number is 150/1.
Utah at Golden State
As of Wednesday night, most spots had Golden State (72-15 SU, 43-41-3 ATS) listed as a 12.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 204. The Jazz had 10/1 money-line odds at The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas (risk $100 to win $1,000). For first-half bets, the Warriors were favored by 7.5 points with a total of 98.5
Oddsmakers sent out a total of 204½ for Game 2, which is two points lower than the number in the opener between the pair. David believes the move is right and wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop further as the series progresses.
David said, “A lot of bettors might not be aware of this but Golden State produced one of the best ‘under’ (50-32) records in the regular season. The defense of the Warriors is often overlooked due to their big-name players and offensive ability, but the unit was ranked 11th in scoring defense (104 PPG). And for whatever reason, Utah hasn’t had any ability of breaking down Golden State. Including Monday’s result, the Jazz have been held under 100 points in 11 of their last 16 encounters against the Warriors. The ‘under’ is now 4-0 between the pair this season and barring a huge outburst by Golden State in Game 2, I would lean to the low side again.”
Golden State has a 39-5 SU record and a 22-20-2 ATS mark in its home contests.
The Warriors have limped to a 22-31 spread record as double-digit ‘chalk’ this year.
Golden State won Game 1 by a 106-94 count, but Utah covered the spread as a 13-point underdog thanks to a 6-0 run to close the game. The 200 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 206-point total. All five starters scored in double figures for the winners led by Steph Curry, who had a game-high 22 points to go with seven rebounds and five assists. Draymond Green added 17 points, eight boards, two blocked shots, two steals and six assists without a turnover. Kevin Durant finished with 17 points, five rebound and five assists compared to only one turnover. Klay Thompson and Zaza Pachulia contributed 15 and 10 points, respectively.
Utah placed four players in double figures in the series opener, including Rudy Gobert (13 pts.), Gordon Hayward (12), Rodney Hood (12) and Joe Johnson (11). Gobert had eight rebounds, three assists and a pair of blocks.
Utah won three road games (Games 1, 5 and 7) in the opening round against the Clippers. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS with four outright victories in its last seven games as an underdog.
Utah (55-35 SU, 42-44-4 ATS) has posted a 25-21 SU record and a 22-23-1 ATS ledger in its road games this season.
Utah owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as a double-digit underdog this year. Also, the Jazz are 6-1 ATS when listed as a ‘dog of eight points or more.
Sportsbook.ag has Golden State as the -285 ‘chalk’ to win the NBA Finals.
Sportsbook.ag has the updated series price as Golden State -15000, Utah +2500 (25/1, risk $100 to win $2,500).
Like David noted above, the ‘under’ has been a winner in all four head-to-head meetings between these clubs this year. Going back even further, the ‘under’ is 6-0-1 in the last seven games of this rivalry. We should note, however, that if this number holds at 204, it’ll be the second-lowest out of the last seven games (203.5 being the lowest).
The ‘under’ is 5-3 for Utah in the playoffs so far. For the season, totals have been an overall wash for the Jazz (45-45), but the ‘over’ is 24-22 in its road assignments. With that said, the ‘under’ is 4-1 in Utah’s five postseason road contests.
The ‘over’ is 3-2 for the Warriors in the playoffs to date, going 1-2 in their home outings. However, the ‘under’ has been a major money maker for Golden St. all year, compiling a 52-33 overall record. The Warriors have seen the ‘under’ go 24-20 in their home games.
If this total holds at 204, it will be the lowest tally Golden State has seen since a March 11 game at San Antonio. That was 22 games ago when the Warriors lost 107-85 to the Spurs and the 192 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 197.5-point tally.
Thursday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards (-5.5, 218.5)
ABOUT THE CELTICS (59-31 SU, 46-42-2 ATS, 44-42-4 O/U): Isaiah Thomas is persevering through personal tragedy and putting the Boston Celtics on his back in dedication to his late sister. Thomas will try to summon the energy once again, this time on the road, when the Celtics visit the Washington Wizards for Game 3. Thomas added physical pain to his emotional toll after having a tooth knocked out in Game 1 and sitting through a second round of dental surgery prior to Game 2. "What else is there to say?" Boston coach Brad Stevens asked reporters. "There's a point (Tuesday) when he was not feeling good at all and was having a tough day. And I thought he was going to really have to gut this one out. And he not only guts it out, he ends up with 50. Pretty impressive." Thomas is getting plenty of help from center Al Horford, who is 16-of-22 from the floor in the series and logged a double-double in each of the first two contests.
ABOUT THE WIZARDS (53-37 SU, 45-44-1 ATS, 56-33-1 O/U): John Wall collected 40 points and 13 assists for the Wizards in Game 2, but it wasn't quite enough to match Thomas. "It was a heck of a basketball game," Washington coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "Two teams played their hearts out. Two great players played well. I thought both teams competed, played their hearts out, nothing to be ashamed of. We lost both games. Now we got to go home and take care of Game 3." Thomas did a lot of his damage in the paint, where Washington Center Marcin Gortat and hobbled power forward Markieff Morris struggled to defend. Morris suffered a sprained ankle in Game 1 but came out for Game 2 and scored 14 points before fouling out in just 27 minutes. "He brings a lot to our team with toughness," Brooks told reporters of Morris. "He's a very physical, tough player. He competes. He’s done everything for us throughout this season, been great to coach. He had a great game. He really competed. Unfortunately, our two bigs got in foul trouble. But I thought he did a great job of competing and put us in the position to win the game."
LINE HISTORY: The Wizards opened as five-point home favorites for Game 3 and by Wednesday night that number was bet up to -5.5. The total opened at 219 and dropped slightly down to 218.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Celtics - SG A. Bradley (Probable, hip).
Wizards - SF O. Porter Jr. (Probable, elbow), PF M. Morris (Probable, ankle), C I. Mahinmi (Out Indefinitely, calf).
TRENDS:
* Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 12-3-2 in Celtics last 17 road games.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Wizards last 6 overall.
* Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors (-12.5, 204)
ABOUT THE JAZZ (55-35 SU, 42-44-4 ATS, 45-45 O/U): Fifth-seeded Utah never kicked its offense in gear with Hayward and postseason standout Joe Johnson struggling, and center Rudy Gobert was the club's high scorer with 13 points. "We just didn't execute like we wanted to and missed some shots," Hayward said during postgame festivities. "So definitely not the way we wanted to start, but just one game. Have to figure something out and be ready for the next one." Hayward scored 20 or more points on five occasions during the seven-game first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers but was a shaky 4-of-15 in the opener against the Warriors. "I didn't feel like Gordon was hesitant to shoot," Jazz coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "They did a good job trying to limit his looks. But the couple clean ones he got, he's been making those, and I would anticipate him making those." Johnson tallied just 11 points in Game 1 and Utah needs a better showing from point guard George Hill, who had just seven points in the opener after averaging 16.9 points in the series against the Clippers.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (72-15 SU, 43-41-3 ATS, 35-52 O/U): The Golden State Warriors controlled the flow in the opener of the Western Conference semifinals and look to take a 2-0 lead when they host the Utah Jazz on Thursday. The Warriors didn't look rusty in Monday's 106-94 victory, a contest in which they limited Utah star forward Gordon Hayward to 12 points. Top-seeded Golden State committed just seven turnovers while forcing 14 in the opener as it overcame a shoddy 7-of-29 performance from 3-point range to post the victory. Curry (left ankle) suffered an injury during Game 1 and missed practice on Wednesday but isn't expected to be hampered in terms of Game 2. He only played 21 seconds in the final quarter and insisted after the contest that it was "just routine maintenance" and "it's nothing to worry about." Small forward Kevin Durant scored 17 points in the opener and looks nearly fully recovered from the calf injury that caused him to miss two games in the first-round series against the Portland Trail Blazers.
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 12.5-point home favorites for Game 2 and the total hit the board at 204. Neither number has moved as of Wednesday night.
INJURY REPORT:
Jazz - SG A. Burks (Out Indefinitely, knee).
Warriors - PG S. Curry (Probable, ankle), SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).
TRENDS:
* Jazz are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Warriors are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Under is 6-1 in Jazz last 7 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 home games.
* Jazz are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Golden State.