NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 2nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
GOLDEN STATE (5 - 3) at SAN ANTONIO (4 - 3) - 11/2/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 1007-882 ATS (+36.8 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 512-430 ATS (+39.0 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 339-265 ATS (+47.5 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 8-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS (3 - 4) at PORTLAND (4 - 4) - 11/2/2017, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-1 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-0 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE @ SAN ANTONIO
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 8 games at home
LA LAKERS @ PORTLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games on the road
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
StatFox Super Situations
GOLDEN STATE at SAN ANTONIO
Play Over - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 playing with 2 days rest, in November games 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )
GOLDEN STATE at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better 39-21 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.0% | 25.7 units )
LA LAKERS at PORTLAND
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 106 to 110.5 after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games 41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
NBA Knowledge
Golden State won its last five games with San Antonio (4-1 vs spread); over is 7-2 in last nine series games. Warriors covered four of their last five visits to the Alamo. Golden State won four of its last five games; their last three games went over. Warriors are 2-6 vs spread this season, 2-2 as a road favorite. Spurs lost their last three games; they’re 2-0 at home, winning by 8-4 points. Under is 4-3 in their games.
Portland won its last ten games with the Lakers (9-1 vs spread, under 7-3); Lakers lost their last five visits to Oregon (1-4 vs spread), losing by 7-9-18-12-16 points. LA is 3-4 to start season, 1-1 on road, losing by 15 at Utah, winning in Phoenix (1-1 as road underdog). Last four Laker games stayed under. Portland split its first four home games (under 3-1); they’re 1-3 vs spread as a home favorite.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
We’ve had some nice back-and-forth action at the NBA betting counter this week with favorites and underdogs exchanging blows. Since Monday, the ‘chalk’ owns a 14-11 straight up mark but the record against the spread are all square at 12-12-1.
The one trend that stands out this week is the ‘over’ with the high side going 18-7 (72%) and those results could’ve been expected since the ‘under’ was on a 35-17 (67%) run the previous seven days.
Thursday’s card only has two games and both will be nationally televised.
Golden State (5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS) at San Antonio (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS)
The defending champions head to the Lone Star State on Thursday and the oddsmakers opened the Warriors as 6½-point road favorites over the Spurs.
For those of you who forgot, these teams met in the Western Conference Finals last season and Golden State captured a 4-0 sweep but many pundits believe the series was decided in Game 1 when San Antonio All-Star Kawhi Leonard left the game in the third quarter due to an ankle injury.
San Antonio was well in control of that contest, leading by as many 25 points but fell apart without Leonard and dropped a painful 113-11 decision to Golden State. The next three games without their best player, the Spurs lost by 35, 12 and 14 points.
Fast forward to this season and Leonard (quad) still hasn’t played a game since the opener of that series due to another leg injury. Despite not having him, San Antonio started the season with four straight wins but have followed up the winning streak with three consecutive losses. The offense has fallen into a serious funk and the Spurs are averaging 91.7 points per game during this span.
It’s tough enough in the NBA when you can’t score, even more difficult when you’re facing the top-ranked scoring offense in the Warriors (121 PPG). San Antonio has only played two home games and it won both of them against a pair of quality clubs in Minnesota and Toronto.
Plus, Golden State hasn’t looked as dominant on the hardwood this season and it’s burned bettors who have continuously laid the points with them. They’ve only managed to cover two of their first eight games, which includes Monday’s 141-113 blowout win over the Clippers and that’s a team the Warriors have absolutely owned.
One reason for their decline at the betting counter could be attributed to their defense. The Warriors (114.1 PPG) have taken a step back in that department from last season (104.5 PPG) and that effort has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2 this season.
The total on this game opened 219 at but dropped as low as 216 ½ as of this morning. San Antonio has watched the ‘under’ go 4-3 on the season and its scoring defense (98.9 PPG) is ranked fifth in the league.
The two regular season games at the AT&T Center last year went well ‘under’ the number as the Warriors were held to just 85 and 92 points. Yet in the aforementioned playoff sweep, Golden State dropped 120 and 129 points in Game’s 3 and 4 versus San Antonio.
The Spurs did recall point guard Tony Parker from the G-League on Wednesday but he’s expected to be ‘out’ for this matchup.
Even if San Antonio falls to .500 and drops its fourth straight game Thursday, the team plays its next five at home and they’ve got a couple layups (Suns, Bulls) coming to town along with some nice tests (Hornets, Clippers, Bucks) as well.
Golden State is off to Denver on Saturday and I believe that will be the more difficult of these two road games since the Nuggets have the athletes to run with them and the Pepsi Center is never an easy out.
TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.
L.A. Lakers (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) at Portland (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)
Oddsmakers opened the Trail Blazers as 8½-point home favorites for this contest and bettors pushed that number down to 7½ as of this morning.
Portland has been known to be a bully at home against inferior teams but it hasn’t shown as much pop offensively this season and that’s translated into a 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS mark at the Moda Center. They did get nipped at the buzzer to the Clippers (104-103) last week but Monday’s recent loss to Toronto (99-85) was embarrassing as they were held to just six points in the second quarter.
The Blazers tried to get on track last night but they dropped a 112-103 overtime decision at Utah. Unfortunately, the team also lost starting power forward Al-Farouq Aminu to a sprained ankle in the setback and he’s likely to be ‘out’ for this game.
Portland has only faced one back-to-back situation this season and they lost a 113-110 decision at Milwaukee on Oct. 21 in a game it could’ve easily won. Last season, the Blazers went 3-1 both SU and ATS when playing on no rest at home.
That should give head coach Terry Stotts and company confidence tonight, plus this has been an extremely one-sided series recently with Portland winning 12 straight against Los Angeles and what’s more impressive is that it owns a 10-2 ATS mark during this run.
This Laker squad definitely has a lot of new faces and perhaps they’ll be able to snap the streak but you better hope the outside shot is falling. It was on Monday as Los Angeles defeated Detroit 113-99 as a three-point home underdog and they connected on 12-of-26 (46%) from 3-point land.
What’s surprised me about the Lakers is that they actually won two games this season while holding teams under 100 points. I thought the only way they could win is if they put up a crooked number, something they did at Phoenix (132-130) on Oct. 20.
Los Angeles hasn’t won back-to-back games yet this season and this will be just their third road contest so far with the team splitting the first pair.
The Lakers have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 and that includes a run of four straight to the low side. Portland is 5-3 to the ‘under’ and even though the season is young, this year’s team has shown some life on defense (98.3 PPG) compared to the numbers from last season (109 PPG). The ‘under’ went 3-1 in the four meetings between the pair last season.
This late-night tip is set for 10:35 p.m. ET with TNT wrapping up its double-header coverage.
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Thursday's Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (+7, 216)
The road was not kind to the Spurs who returned home earlier this week after grabbing just one win on their four-game swing through the Eastern Conference. The offense appears to be in the tank after three straight contests failing to reach the century mark in points scored. San Antonio sits in 25th place in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) at 99.7.
Oddsmakers often talk about a team being able to get by for a couple games without a star player, but over time the role players will struggle to replace the production of the team leaders. That’s what we’re seeing with the Spurs.
Kawhi Leonard – the preseason favorite to win the NBA MVP award – is still out and Spurs coach Gregg Popovich hinted Leonard is weeks away from returning. Fortunately, we were shown a preview of what Warriors vs. Spurs without Kawhi looks like from last spring.
Leonard sprained his ankle in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals and didn’t play the rest of the series. Golden State won and covered the next three games and finished the Spurs off in four games.
The Warriors aren’t proving to be as motivated this regular season – which is to be expected considered their season doesn’t really start until the playoffs roll around. Expect a fast-paced and sloppy game with a lot of points.
Pick: Over 216
Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers (-7, 210.5)
Don’t let their 20-point win over the Pistons fool you: The Lakers still have a lot of things to figure out – namely what’s their best lineup combination and which players should be closing games for them.
Head coach Luke Walton is starting Larry Nance Jr. and Brook Lopez as his two bigs but the Purple and Gold perform better with Julius Randle on the floor in place of either Nance or Lopez.
The Lakers have only played two road games this season with the one win coming against the Phoenix Suns prior to the head coaching change. LA got housed at Utah earlier this week.
Expect the road to be unkind to the Lakers again on Thursday against the Blazers.
Pick: Trail Blazers -7
Yesterday’s picks: 2-0
Season record: 17-15
Total Streaks
*The over is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Warriors and Spurs.
*The over is 7-1 in the Spurs’ last eight home games.
*The over is 12-2 in the Warriors’ last 14 road games.
*The under is 8-3 in the last 11 games between the Lakers and Blazers.
*The under is 4-0 in the Lakers’ last four games overall.
Injury to Watch
We already discussed the continued absence of Kawhi Leonard for the Spurs. The good news for bettors is that we don’t have to worry about any other San Antonio players resting in this game. The Spurs made a habit of resting players periodically during the season, but if they did so tonight they would be subject to a large fine. The NBA’s new rule prohibits resting players in nationally broadcast games like tonight’s against Golden State on TNT.
Refs to Watch
Three of the biggest homer referees this season are working tonight’s Lakers-Blazers game at Portland. Home teams are a combined 10-3 SU and ATS in games worked by any of the three refs in Ken Mauer’s crew tonight.
Trends
*The Blazers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on zero days’ rest.
*The Lakers are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games at Portland.
*The Warriors are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Consensus
More than 60 percent of players expect the Warriors to cover as 7-point road chalk against the Spurs tonight.
Hoop Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
ATS TREND OF THE DAY:
The Lakers are 0-9 ATS (-10.72 ppg) since Feb 09, 2014 off a 10+ point win in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Spurs are 14-0 OU (12.39 ppg) since Mar 18, 2017 coming off a loss and when facing an opponent averaging more than 27 points from 3s per game.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Warriors are 12-0-1 OU (15.08 ppg) after Draymond Green took fewer than 10 shots.
CHOICE TREND:
The Spurs are 10-0 OU (12.25 ppg) since Apr 22, 2015 as a dog off a loss.