NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 9th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Lakers lost eight of last ten games with Washington, but beat Wizards in OT at home Oct 25. LA covered four of the last six; Lakers covered three of last four games in this building (over 3-1). Los Angeles is 3-5 in its last eight games- they lost in Boston last nite, are 2-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Wizards lost five of last seven games; they’re 0-5 vs spread as a home favorite. Over is 4-1 in their five home games.
Toronto won its last four games with New Orleans (3-1 vs spread); Pelicans are 2-2-1 vs spread in last five visits to Canada. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. New Orleans won its last three games, all on road, by 5-6-5 points; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Pelicans are 2-2 as road dogs, but won five of last six on road SU. Raptors won four of last six games; they’re 2-2 vs spread as home favorites. Three of their last four games went over.
Rockets won eight of last ten games with Cleveland (7-3 vs spread); Cavaliers are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Under is 6-3 in last nine series games. Cleveland lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-2 SU on road, 2-0 vs spread as road underdogs. Over is 3-1 in their road games. Houston won/covered its last three games; they’re 2-2 as home favorites. Last four Rocket games went over the total.
76ers are 6-4 in last ten games with Sacramento (9-1 vs spread); Sixers covered their last five visits to Sacramento. Over is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Philly won its last five games, is 7-0 vs spread in last seven games; they’re 5-1 vs spread on road (over 4-2), 1-0 as road faves. Kings lost seven of last eight games; they’re 2-1 as a home underdog. Under is 3-1 in Sacramento home games.
Thunder won nine of last ten games with Denver (7-3 vs spread); over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Oklahoma City is 4-1 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. OKC lost its last three games; they’re 2-4 vs spread as a road favorite. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Nuggets won five of last seven games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-3 vs spread as a home favorite. Under is 4-2 in Denver home games.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The Oklahoma City franchise is playing in its 10th season this year since it relocated from Seattle. What’s amazing is that the team has made the playoffs in seven of nine seasons and that includes four trips to the Western Conference Finals and one ticket to the NBA Finals.
They made a name for themselves as contenders through the draft as the franchise hit the jackpot on three consecutive first-round draft picks from 2007 to 2009 in Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden.
As most of you know, Durant and Harden are no longer with the Thunder anymore but they still have the NBA's reigning Most Valuable Player in Westbrook.
Despite making the playoffs last summer, the club decided to take a shot this offseason with a “Big Three” approach by acquiring Paul George from the Pacers and Carmelo Anthony from the Knicks via trades.
A lot of pundits started labeling them as contenders again but that hasn’t been the case through the first 10 games of the season. Oklahoma City (4-6 straight up, 4-6 against the spread) hasn’t lived up to its expectations and the addition of George and Anthony have certainly tempered Westbrook’s game.
Last year he averaged a triple-double and while he’s not far from repeating that effort, his points per game has dipped from 31.6 to 20.1. It’s not surprising to see the drop but I assumed that George and Anthony would have to cater to the MVP, not the opposite.
All three can fill up the stat sheet on any given night, but none of them have shown consistent range from the outside and the Thunder’s 3-point shooting (34%) is ranked 21st in the league. The offense is ranked 23rd in scoring with 102.5 PPG and what’s really surprising is that they’re not getting to the free throw line (19.5) this season.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia dropped Oklahoma City from 7th to 13th in his weekly Power Poll and he provided us with his thoughts on the club.
“Losing at the Kings was an eye-opener because it marked the first time where they fell against inferior competition. In the season-opening win over New York and a visit to overmatched Chicago, the Thunder won by a combined margin of 53 points. The rest of their games throughout this slow start have come against some quality opponents, mostly on the road. In that sense, there's still hope that this experiment will work out fine, but new roles aren't an excuse given an 0-3 record against Minnesota and Boston, teams that have also incorporated significant new pieces,” said Mejia.
Not only is Oklahoma City 1-4 versus teams that currently sit above .500 but they don’t own a win this season against the Western Conference (0-5).
Mejia added, “It's on Billy Donovan to work out an offensive system that will keep things simple enough for these guys to improvise, since it's no coincidence they've yet to break 100 points in November and seem to be laboring at a slower pace. There's no reason to believe a quick fix is coming given how challenging a back-to-back in Denver and then home for the Clippers will be. They'll get in the lab and work on some stuff with a pair of winnable home games against the woeful Mavs and Bulls coming up following the L.A. game, but I wouldn't give points again until they demonstrate consistency. The Sacramento loss was brutal. No one looks comfortable."
On Thursday, OKC will try to get right as it visits Denver (6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS). The Nuggets have been a mystery as well this season and if it wasn’t for facing seven teams (4-3) from the East early, who knows where this club would stand. Denver has only been underdogs twice this season and they certainly haven’t been a good investment when laying points.
The oddsmakers sent out OKC as a short road favorite (-1) and I would expect it to remain in that neighborhood. Denver is a respectable 4-2 at home and 0-1 when listed as a ‘dog.
Both clubs have a lot of new faces but it should be noted that Oklahoma City has won nine of the last 10 encounters in this series and that includes a run of five straight at the Pepsi Center. The two meetings at this venue last season were decided by a combined four points and many of you might recall Westbrook’s buzzer beater last April that finished off the Nuggets. The league MVP finished with 50 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists. The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 during this span.
TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.
Along with this late-night tip, we have four other quality matchups in the NBA on Thursday.
L.A. Lakers (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) at Washington (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)
This is a quick rematch as Washington (-10½) will look to avenge a 102-99 overtime loss to the Lakers on Oct. 25 as 5½-point road favorites. The Wizards will be catching Los Angeles on no rest after the Lakers dropped a 107-66 decision at Boston last night. L.A. has gone 2-1 both SU and ATS on zero days rest this season albeit the wins came versus the Phoenix and Brooklyn. The Lakers sit at 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road with the lone win coming versus the aforementioned Suns.
Washington has been a disappointment so far and while this certainly could be a ‘get-right’ game for them, I’d still be a little hesitant to lay the points. Make a note that the Hawks and Kings visit the Capital One Arena after this game, so head coach Scott Brooks and company have no excuses to get back on track.
The Wizards were a great team at home last season but that hasn’t been the case this year. They’ve burned bettors with a 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS mark which includes a current skid of three straight. Plus, two of those losses came at home as double-digit favorites to the Suns on Nov. 1 and this past Wednesday to the Mavericks, who was winless on the road prior to that victory.
Also, Washington has gone 2-4 (3-3 ATS) versus the Western Conference this season and that includes a 1-3 mark as a favorite. The Lakers are 3-2 against foes from the East this season.
New Orleans (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) at Toronto (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Even though it won’t receive as much attention, this is a great non-conference matchup and a solid test for both clubs. Toronto opened as a 4 ½-point home favorite and most shops were holding 5 as of this morning.
New Orleans has started 5-2 on the road and it will look to finish off its current road trip with a 4-0 record after defeating the Mavs, Bulls and Pacers in the first three games. Wins are wins and I don’t want to dismiss New Orleans and its pair of talented big men (Davis, Cousins) but they’ve been a bully this season. The Pels are 0-5 against teams with winning records and 6-0 versus sub .500 clubs.
If you stick with that angle, Toronto should be your lean. Plus, the Raptors are a solid home team (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) and their overall record is pretty solid considering they already had to embark on a six-game road trip to the West Coast.
The Raptors have won four straight against the Pelicans and eight of the last 10 meetings. The pair will finish off their season series next Wednesday (Nov. 15) when they meet in New Orleans.
Cleveland (5-6 SU, 2-8-1 ATS) at Houston (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS)
The Rockets opened as five-point favorites for this matchup while the total is 228. Houston enters this game on a roll, winning and covering three straight games while averaging 125 PPG during the streak. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s defense (113.9 PPG) remains a mess and they haven’t faced a team with the firepower comparable to Houston.
What’s strange about the Cavs is that they’ve gone 4-0 versus some of the top teams in the East (Celtics, Wizards, Bucks) but gave up a ton of points in losses to weaker teams in the Nets, Pacers and Hawks. Will Cleveland step up tonight? Outside of a come-from-behind road victory over Golden State in the opener, the Rockets really don’t have a signature win on their resume.
Last season, the pair split their regular season meetings with the home team winning both games as James Harden (39.5 PPG, 13 APG, 8.5 RPG) and LeBron James (24.5 PPG, 6.5 APG, 10 RPG) both nearly averaged a triple-double in those games. The Cavaliers were also helped immensely in those games with 30 PPG coming from Kyrie Irving.
Both teams bring 4-0 ‘over’ streaks into this contest.
TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia (6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS) at Sacramento (2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS)
After a bit of a rough start that saw Philadelphia go 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS, the club has circled the wagons and ripped off five consecutive wins and covers. The oddsmakers continue to grade the club strong and the 76ers are laying a healthy price on the road (-6½) to the Kings tonight. Including the five wins in a row, Philly has covered seven straight and its gone 3-1 ATS in the role as a favorite this season.
Sacramento earned a solid 94-86 home win on Tuesday over Oklahoma City but it hasn’t won back-to-back games all season. The point-spread has only mattered in one game for Sac-Town. So when the Kings lose, they haven’t been competitive and that’s clearly attributed to an offense that is ranked last in scoring (93.8 PPG). Even when Philadelphia was tanking, it’s played rather well against Sacramento. The 76ers have gone 3-3 in the last six meetings and they covered all of those games (6-0 ATS).
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Thursday's Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (+1, 214)
Should we be worried about the Thunder? The team that was projected to finish third in the Western Conference after the offseason acquisitions of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony currently sits in 12th place. More troubling – OKC dropped to 0-5 against West teams after losing 94-86 to the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday.
The Thunder are starting to get frustrated. Anthony picked up a Flagrant 2 foul – albeit a soft one – against the Trail Blazers and George, Russell Westbrook and head coach Billy Donovan picked fines for their comments regarding the officials after the setback to Portland.
The overall numbers tell us not to panic on OKC. The Thunder have a solid defense and they’ve lost a bunch of close games. Things should even out soon for them beginning Thursday night in Denver.
Pick: Thunder -1
Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets (-5.5, 228)
The Mike D’Antoni-led Phoenix Suns teams always had trouble finding the right balance - they were light years ahead offensively but couldn’t get defensive stops when they needed to close a game out.
D’Antoni may have finally found his coaching equilibrium with this year’s Rockets team. Houston owned the third highest pace in the league a season ago but this season sits middle of the pack at 14th. The Rockets finished 18th in defensive rating in 2016-17 and are in 11th spot after their first 11 games this season.
Chris Paul was the big-name player addition from the offseason, but with him on the shelf new Rockets P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute are proving to be clever signings.
Pick: Rockets -5.5
Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season record: 23-23
Total Streaks
*The over is 4-1 in the Wizards’ last five home games.
*The under is 4-1 in the Pelicans’ last five games overall.
*The over is 5-1 in the Cavs’ last six road games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last four games overall.
*The under is 11-1 in the Kings’ last 12 games following a straight up win.
*The under is 12-4 in the Nuggets’ last 16 games overall.
Injury to Watch
Nothing today like yesterday where we saw Kevin Durant, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford as late day scratches.
Joel Embiid makes his return to the Sixers’ lineup after sitting out Tuesday’s 104-97 win over the Utah Jazz. The big man is not injured – Tuesday was just a scheduled game off as Philly tries to keep Embiid healthy this season.
Trends
*The Thunder are 0-5 SU and ATS vs. Western Conference teams this season
*The Nuggets are1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Thunder.
*The Sixers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one day’s rest.
*The Cavs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.
*The Wiz are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
Consensus
Almost 70 percent of players expect the Thunder to cover as 1-point road favorites against the Nuggets on Thursday.