NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, October 26th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, until these teams get some games under their belts. I’ll give you what relevant information I have:
Mavericks beat Grizzlies by 9 at home last night; they won six of last eight games with Memphis; over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Dallas is 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Tennessee. Mavs are 1-4 to start season (1-4 vs spread, over 3-2), losing by 16 at Houston in only road game. Memphis is 3-1 to start season (under 3-1), with home wins over Golden State/New Orleans.
Celtics won six of last nine games with Milwaukee; they lost by 8 at home to Bucks last week. Boston is 3-1 vs spread in last four visits here. Over is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. Celtics won their last two games after an 0-2 start (under 3-1)- they split pair of road games. Bucks won three of first four games (over 3-1); they’re 1-1-1 vs spread at home this month.
Hawks won seven of last eight games with Chicago (7-1 vs spread); over is 3-1 in last four series games. Atlanta is 4-2 vs spread in last six visits to Windy City. Hawks lost their last three games by 18-12-11 points (under 2-0-1); they still haven’t played at home. Chicago lost its first three games, 17-10-7 points (over 2-1). Bulls lost by 10 the Spurs in their only home game.
Clippers won last three games with Portland, covered three of last four; they’re 1-3 in last four visits here (2-2 vs spread). Over is 4-1 in last five series games. Clippers are 3-0 SU/ATS to start season (under 3-0); this is their first true road game (played Lakers in “road” game). Portland won three of first four games (under 3-1); they beat Pelicans by 10 in their home opener.
Pelicans won seven of last nine games with Sacramento; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here. Last three series games stayed under. New Orleans lost three of first four games (over 2-2); favorites covered all three of their road games (1-2). Kings lost three of first four games (under 3-1); they lost by 5 to Houston in their only home game.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Since Monday, favorites have gone 14-10 straight up while underdogs have posted a 12-11-1 record against the spread. Bettors riding the home ‘dogs on Wednesday wound up going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS with big victories posted by the Nets (+8, +270 ML) over the Cavaliers and the Suns (+7.5, +260 ML) over the Jazz. Dallas wound up earning its first win by beating Memphis 103-94 at home and the L.A. Lakers handed the Washington their first loss of the season with a 102-99 overtime victory at the Staples Center.
Even though scoring is up through the first week of the season, the oddsmakers have already adjusted to the totals market correctly with some inflated numbers. The days of totals closing below 200 are going to be very rare this season. Through three days of action this week, the ‘under’ is 17-7 (71%) and that includes an 8-2 mark to the low side last night.
Welcome Mat?
DeMarcus Cousins will face his former team on Thursday as New Orleans (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) and Sacramento (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) meet from the Golden 1 Center.
The big man still isn’t happy with the Kings organization after he was dealt to New Orleans last February. In a recent in interview, Cousins shared his thoughts.
"My representatives, they told me I shouldn't stay," Cousins said of refusing "an opportunity to leave" when the team hired George Karl in 2015 to coach the team. "But, you know, I guess being stubborn or loyal, I wanted to make things work. How you going to be loyal to something that ain't loyal to any player that's ever played the game? I was a fool."
Sacramento opened as a short favorite (-2) and it would probably be an underdog if New Orleans All-Star Anthony Davis (knee) was healthy. He’s listed as ‘doubtful’ as of Thursday morning after knocking his knees in Tuesday’s 103-93 loss at Portland.
Even though the pair share the same record, New Orleans has played three playoff contenders while Sacramento’s last three opponents have at least three-plus losses.
The Kings were competitive in their home opener last Wednesday, but still came up short in a 105-100 loss to the Rockets.
The home team won and covered all three meetings last season and Cousins was on the winning team in each game, winning twice with Sacramento before getting revenge against the Kings in the “Big Easy” after the trade. In that win, Cousins torched his former team for a game-high 37 points and 13 rebounds as New Orleans cruised to a 117-89 blowout. The ‘under’ connected in all three games last season.
Tip-off is set for 10:35 p.m. ET and TNT will provide national coverage.
Looking for Respect
Milwaukee (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) will host Boston (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at the Bradley Center tonight and TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.
This will be a quick rematch as the Bucks dropped the Celtics 108-100 last Tuesday as 1½-point road underdogs. Boston actually led this game going into the fourth quarter by four points but Milwaukee closed the game 32-20 as the Celtics ran out of gas after dealing with Cavaliers one night earlier and of course the emotional loss of Gordon Hayward to injury.
Even though a lot of pundits may believe Milwaukee is better than Boston, the oddsmakers still have the Celtics (4/1) as the second choice to win the East behind Cleveland while the Bucks are sitting at 16/1.
For this matchup, Milwaukee opened as a 3½-point favorite and that number quickly moved to four.
After starting 0-2, Boston has won back-to-back games albeit against the 76ers and Knicks. Milwaukee sits above that pair and another win in this spot would boost its resume even more.
Prior to the outcome last week, Boston was on a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS run against Milwaukee.
The total was bet down early from 207 to 205½. Boston has leaned ‘under’ (3-1) while the Bucks have been on the other side of the fence with a 3-1 ‘over’ mark.
Home-and-Home
The Mavericks and Grizzlies will play for the second straight night after meeting in the Lone Star State on Wednesday. As mentioned above, Dallas captured its first win of the season (103-94) and that was also the first setback this season for Memphis. Including that win, that Mavericks are now 6-2 both SU and ATS in their last eight games versus the Grizzlies.
Dallas has only played one road game this season and it was run 107-91 at Houston. Memphis has gone 2-0 both SU and ATS at home this season, with both wins coming by double digits.
The Grizzlies have seen all four of their games go ‘under’ this season and tonight’s total (196½) is expecting another low-scoring affair.
Western Test
Bettors could be scratching their heads on this game as the Clippers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) and Trail Blazers (3-1 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) square off from the Moda Center. I thought this line would be closer to pick ‘em or even have Los Angeles listed as a road favorite but will find out soon enough if my rating is better than oddsmakers.
The Clippers haven’t played any serious contenders thus far, but they have won and covered all of their games easily. What’s impressive is the defense, which is leading the league in scoring at 88 points per game and that’s helped the ‘under’ post a 3-0 mark.
Portland’s offense (112.8 PPG) will be a much stiffer test for Los Angeles but you could question those early numbers too considering the Trail Blazers started the season against the defenseless Suns and Pacers. Make a note that Portland is 3-1 to the ‘under’ so far.
The Clippers got the best of the Trail Blazers last season, winning all three of their encounters and they covered two of the victories. They only visited the Moda Center once and they captured a 114-106 victory.
If Necessary
With the NBA being so top-heavy, you’re going to have matchups on a nightly basis that are often unwatchable and sometimes not even worth wagering on. This matchup between Atlanta (1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) and Chicago (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) certainly meets that criteria. The Bulls opened as 2½-point home favorites after being listed as double-digit underdogs in their first three games.
Atlanta has been an underdog in every game so far, which isn’t surprising since the NBA somehow let the schedule makers have the club start the season with five straight on the road. Also, the Hawks will likely be without point guard Dennis Shroder (ankle) for the fourth consecutive game on Tuesday. In the lone game Atlanta won at Dallas (117-111) last Wednesday, the super-fast point guard finished with a game-high 28 points and added seven assists.
Chicago had its home opener last Saturday and it dropped an 87-77 decision to San Antonio at home. The Bulls rebounded offensively in Tuesday’s loss at Cleveland (119-112) by hitting 17-of-33 (52%) bombs from 3-point land. If Fred Hoiberg’s team continues that trend, the Bulls won’t be winless for long.
For what it’s worth, Atlanta has won and covered eight of the last 10 meetings between the pair.
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Thursday's Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
Our staff is cursed with the dreaded 1-1 streak. Every day we make two picks and every day we get one right and we get the other wrong. Good thing you all come here for the information and witty writing and not just our mediocre picks… right?
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (-4, 206.5)
The Celtics’ season draws parallel with a certain nursey rhyme about a great big fall. Boston is putting the pieces back to together by giving the minutes that would have gone to Gordon Hayward to rookie Jayson Tatum and second year wing Jaylen Brown. And these kids are alright.
Tatum is averaging 14.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game on 47.6 percent shooting from the field while Brown is pouring in 18.8 points and 1.3 steals every night while shooting over 36 percent from beyond the arc.
The offense still isn’t as smooth as it could be because new point guard Kyrie Irving hasn’t hit his stride yet with his new teammates. The Celtics’ net rating (measuring a team’s point differential per 100 possessions) is 9.1 with Irving on the pine and 2.4 with him on the floor.
Irving has an ego and he’ll be looking to go shot for shot with MVP frontrunner Giannis Antetokounmpo. That won’t help Boston’s chances of winning this game.
Pick: Bucks -4
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers (-3, 211)
Chris who? Blake Griffin is proving the Clippers aren’t missing their former All-Star point guard by averaging nearly 27 points and 10 rebounds through the first three games of the campaign. He also crowned elite shot blocker Rudy Gobert on Tuesday night, proving there's still some spring in his step.
The Clippers are 3-0 straight up and against the spread and own the league’s best net rating at 24.2. LA is 3-1 straight up and against the spread in its last four games against the Blazers.
Pick: Clippers +3
Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season: 8-10
Total Streaks
*The under is 19-7 in Chicago’s last 26 home games.
*The over is 12-4-2 in the last 18 games between the Mavericks and Grizzlies.
*The under is 5-1 in the Clippers’ last six games overall.
Injury To Note
Atlanta Hawks leading scorer Dennis Schroder will miss Thursday’s game against the Chicago Bulls. Schroder, a shoot-first (and probably second too) point guard, has limited range but excels at creating his shot. He sat out Monday against the Miami Heat and the Hawks lost 93-104.
Referee Assignment to Watch
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls
The Hawks are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games officiated by NBA ref Karl Lane.
Trends
*The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
*The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
*The Blazers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Consensus
Over 60 percent of players expect the Portland Trail Blazers to cover as 3-point home favorites against the Los Angeles Clippers.