Spurs-Clippers Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
Series Price: San Antonio -2500, Los Angeles +1500
Series Format: San Antonio, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: The Spurs are sitting pretty after barely breaking a sweat in their first round series sweep of the Jazz. Top-seeded San Antonio returns to the court following a week of rest to entertain a Clippers' squad that needed seven games to eliminate Memphis, the same team that bounced the Spurs in the quarterfinals last season. Los Angeles is a heavy underdog in this round after allowing Memphis to creep back in its first round series following a 3-1 Grizzlies' deficit.
For San Antonio, it's been a simple formula recently. Count on the big three of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan to set the table, while allowing the depth to play its role in rolling off a 14 consecutive victories. The Spurs won three of four games against the Jazz by double-digits, as Utah made a late run to cover Game 4 as 7½-point underdogs in an 87-81 home defeat. In fact, the Spurs hit the 'under' in all four contests after going on a 7-0-1 run to the 'over' to finish the regular season.
The Clippers turned to their bench in the decisive Game 7, as Kenyon Martin, Nick Young, and Eric Bledsoe combined to score 32 points in Sunday's 82-72 triumph. Los Angeles cashed as 7½-point road 'dogs, while Memphis was limited to 34 points in the second half. It didn't help the Grizzlies that they failed to drill a three-pointer in 13 attempts, as the 'under' hit in four of the final five games of this series.
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Head-to-Head Matchups: The Spurs captured two of three regular season meetings, as only one of those contests was decided by single-digits. San Antonio dominated Los Angeles in the second game of the season for both clubs, 115-90 at AT&T Center on December 28. Gregg Popovich's team easily cashed as 4½-point 'chalk' by jumping on the Clippers in a 38-17 third quarter onslaught. Blake Griffin was the lone Clipper to show up with 28 points and nine rebounds, while all five San Antonio starters poured in double-figures.
The Clippers blew a golden opportunity for revenge by literally throwing the game away in a 103-100 overtime defeat to the Spurs at Staples Center on February 18. This matinee affair looked to be going L.A.'s way, but Chris Paul's errant pass in the final seconds of regulation landed in the hands of Gary Neal, who sank a three-pointer to force overtime. San Antonio came through in the extra session to cash as three-point 'dogs, while extending its winning streak at the time to 10 games.
Parker scored a game-high 30 points in that February rally at Los Angeles, but the Spurs' point guard sat out the final meeting with the Clippers on March 9 with a sore thigh. The Clips took advantage of the All-Star's absence by posting a convincing 120-108 shootout victory at San Antonio as 4½-point underdogs. Mo Williams turned into the key cog for the Clippers' attack by hitting seven of nine attempts from downtown, while putting up 33 points off the bench. Paul led the way with 36 points for L.A., as the Clips knocked down 14 treys in the win.
Betting Notes: The Spurs owned the top ATS record in the league this season, while producing an incredible 30-5 SU and 26-8-1 ATS record at the AT&T Center as a home favorite. San Antonio did lose twice outright as double-digit home 'chalk' during the season to the Kings and Lakers, but the Spurs dominated in that role with an 8-2-1 ATS ledger. Playing as a road favorite has also been an automatic play for the Spurs, who have won 13 straight games when laying points on the highway (9-2-2 ATS).
The Clippers began the season at 0-4 SU/ATS in the road underdog situation, but went on a strong 5-0-1 ATS run from February through mid-March. Although Los Angeles cashed in Game 7 at Memphis, the Clips own a 2-5 SU/ATS record the last seven games when receiving points away from Southern California. The Clippers finished 4-1-1 ATS as home underdogs, including outright victories over the Thunder twice, Heat, and Mavericks.
Series Outlook: It's very difficult to get on the tracks with the speed and veracity of this San Antonio express, especially with the Spurs covering at an insane rate. The Clippers stepped up defensively against an up-and-down Grizzlies' squad in the last round, but Vinny Del Negro's club has its work cut out for them to advance to its first ever conference finals. The Spurs will move forward in five games to their first West Finals since 2008.
What Bettors Need to Know: Tuesday's NBA Action
By Covers.com
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-7.5, 185)
THE STORY: LeBron James and Dwyane Wade lost the third member of their star trio late in the first half on Sunday and completely took things over themselves. They'll need to do the same Tuesday as they entertain the Indiana Pacers in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference second-round series. The Heat will be without the services of forward Chris Bosh, who is out indefinitely after an MRI revealed an abdominal strain.
ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana cruised past the Orlando Magic in the first round by playing strong team defense and getting over 21 points per game from Danny Granger. The defense worked in the first half of Game 1, but Granger was nowhere to be found. The swingman scored seven points on 1-for-10 shooting in the 95-86 loss. The Pacers had trouble getting much from any of their perimeter scorers in the contest while David West and Roy Hibbert combined for 34 points and 23 rebounds on the inside. West and Hibbert could become even more involved in the offense if Bosh is unable to play on Tuesday.
ABOUT THE HEAT: James took plenty of criticism for struggling in the fourth quarter throughout last year's playoffs. So far in 2012, James has been at his best down the stretch. The newly-crowned MVP scored 16 of his 32 points in the final frame on Sunday and added 15 rebounds and five assists to his final total. Wade was almost as sharp, finishing with 29 points and four assists and providing one of the highlights of the game with a chase-down block of Paul George on a fast break. The two stars were also part of the strong defensive effort against Granger. Bosh’s injury looms over the rest of the series, but with James crashing the boards, Miami still outrebounded the Pacers, 45-38, in Game 1.
TRENDS:
- The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
- The under is 23-7 in the Heat's last 30 home games.
- The underdog is 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. James joined Shaquille O’Neil as the only players in Miami history to record at least 30 points and 15 rebounds in a playoff game.
2. The Heat failed to record a 3-pointer (0 for 6) for the first time in franchise playoff history.
3. The Pacers were called for 31 personal fouls in Game 1 - nine more than the Heat.
Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs (-11, 190.5)
THE STORY: The Los Angeles Clippers have to hope that too much rest will slow the San Antonio Spurs, who enter their Western Conference semifinal series riding a 14-game winning streak. San Antonio swept the Utah Jazz and has had seven days off as it prepares to host the hobbled Clippers in Game 1. The Spurs tied for the league's best home record (28-5), but Los Angeles won twice on the road in dispatching Memphis, including a victory in Game 7.
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Despite injuries to All-Stars Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, Los Angeles won a decisive Game 7 after blowing a 3-1 series lead. A 27-point comeback in Game 1 set the tone for the Clippers, who got a great performance from their bench in closing out Memphis. Griffin, dealing with a sprained left knee, played fewer than two minutes in the final quarter. Paul (hip) and Caron Butler (fractured hand) also are hurt, so it’s imperative that Los Angeles continues to get strong production from its reserves against the league’s deepest and most balanced team. The Clippers won one of three meetings with the Spurs behind a season high-tying 36 points from Paul.
ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio had its streak of 100-point games stopped at 13 in its series-clinching win over the Jazz. Yet, that game also illustrated the daunting task awaiting the Clippers. The Spurs got quiet games from point guard Tony Parker and forward Tim Duncan, but nine players were on the floor for at least 20 minutes. San Antonio’s offensive efficiency has been off the charts – entering the final two games at Utah, the team had averaged more than 114 points during a 12-game stretch. The Spurs also feature a different look since they lost to Los Angeles at home on March 9, adding starting C Boris Diaw and high-scoring swingman Stephen Jackson.
TRENDS:
The Clippers are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
The Spurs are 37-11-4 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
The under is 4-1 in the Clippers' last five overall.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Duncan, 36, who averages 19.3 points and 10.7 boards lifetime against the Clippers, is well-rested after playing in only six games since April 17.
2. Los Angeles nailed 14 3-pointers – seven by Mo Williams – in its last win over the Spurs. San Antonio was the league’s top-ranked team from behind the arc in the regular season at 39.3 percent.
3. Parker sat out the loss to the Clippers in March after lighting them up for 30 points one month earlier.
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Los Angeles vs San Antonio
San Antonio should be plenty fresh as it has been seven days since the Spurs finished a first-round sweep of Utah (3-1 ATS). Meanwhile, it will have been less than 48 hours since the Clippers eliminated the Memphis Grizzlies in seven (3-2-2 ATS). Plenty of reason to back Spurs in the opener. San Antonio (54-16, 45-21-4 ATS) is riding a 14-0 (12-1-1 ATS) win streak averaging a whopping 111.1 points/game while allowing a messily 94.0 per contest. Add to that Spurs 15-1 (14-1-1 ATS) stretch at the AT&T Center in San Antonio hard to envision the boys from Alamo City faltering in the opener. The kicker, Spurs have owned Clippers of late posting a 31-5 (21-15-1 ATS) mark last thirty-six meetings including a sparkling 17-1 (10-7-1 ATS) when running the hardwood in their own back yard. San Antonio opening -11.0 point favorites are in solid betting territory as Spurs enter on a 10-1 ATS stretch as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater while Clippers come in on a 7-16 ATS skid as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater.
NBA Preview
Pacers @ Heat (1-0) -- Heat was 4-5 in regular season when Bosh didn't play; he's likely out for series now. Home side won four of five series games, with Pacers losing two games here by 25-15-9 points; Indiana lucked out in first round with Orlando missing Howard- they've won seven of last eight road games, but couldn't hold 48-42 halftime lead in the opener here Sunday. Pacers' starting guards were just 5-15 from the floor. Miami won its four home playoff games by 33-10-12-9 points.
Clippers @ Spurs -- LA is very banged up (Paul/Griffin) after surviving Game 7 in Memphis 48 hours ago; now they go to Alamo to take on a rested, veteran Spurs' squad that dusted Utah 4-0, with only last game by less than 12 points. After watching tired Lakers get dismantled last night, hard to imagine Clippers putting up much of a fight here. Spurs crushed LA 115-90 in first meeting, then nipped Clippers in OT in LA in next meeting. LA won 120-108 here in last meeting, March 9.
Armadillosports.com
LA CLIPPERS (44 - 29) at SAN ANTONIO (54 - 16)
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 394-461 ATS (-113.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 43-66 ATS (-29.6 Units) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 149-188 ATS (-57.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 137-187 ATS (-68.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 46-21 ATS (+22.9 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 119-82 ATS (+28.8 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against Pacific division opponents this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 62-39 ATS (+19.1 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA (46 - 26) at MIAMI (51 - 21)
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 8-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 10-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA vs. MIAMI
Indiana is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games at home
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA CLIPPERS vs. SAN ANTONIO
LA Clippers are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
LA Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Antonio's last 18 games at home
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Clippers at San Antonio
LA Clippers: 1-9 ATS on Tuesdays
San Antonio: 24-8 ATS off BB Unders
Indiana at Miami
Indiana: 16-30 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points
Miami: 14-5 Under at home off a home win
Bosh injury creates 'under' value
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The odds-on favorite to win this year’s NBA Finals took a major hit on Sunday when All-Star Chris Bosh left Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against Indiana with an abdominal strain. After an MRI exam on Monday, the Heat has sidelined Bosh indefinitely. The expected recovery time for this type of injury is listed between three and six weeks.
Oddsmakers have adjusted for Game 2, making Miami a seven-point favorite over Indiana. The Heat gave 8 ½-points in the first installment and barely covered with a nine-point victory (96-85).
The total on Game 1 closed at 187 and that number has dropped as well for Game 2, listed between 185 and 186 at most betting shops.
Since Bosh joined LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in South Beach, the All-Star forward has missed 14 games over the past two seasons.
Miami is 7-7 straight up and 6-8 against the spread without his duties. Those numbers are neither great nor bad, but total players could be licking their chops here on out.
Without Bosh in the lineup, Miami has seen the ‘under’ go 2-11-1 over the 14 games, largely due to an offense that can’t find a way to replace a serious scoring threat.
Listed below are the games Miami has played without Bosh for the past two seasons.
2010-2011 Betting Results
Straight Up: 4-5
Against the Spread: 4-5
Over/Under: 1-7-1
Points Per Game: 87.1
Apr. 26, 2012
Miami 70 at Washington 104
Apr. 24, 2012
Miami 66 at Boston 78
Apr. 22, 2012
Miami 97 vs. Houston 88
Apr. 21, 2012
Miami 84 vs. Washington 86
Apr. 19, 2012
Miami 83 vs. Chicago 72
Apr. 18, 2012
Miami 96 vs. Toronto 72
Mar. 4, 2012
Miami 83 at L.A. Lakers 93
Mar. 2, 2012
Miami 98 at Utah 99
Mar. 1, 2012
Miami 107 at Portland 93
2010-2011 Betting Results
Straight Up: 3-2
Against the Spread: 2-3
Over/Under: 1-4
Points per Game: 96.4 (90.4 PPG when you exclude the 1/22 affair)
Apr. 13, 2011
Miami 97 at Toronto 79
Jan. 28, 2011
Miami 88 vs. Detroit 87
Jan. 27, 2011
Miami 88 at New York 93
Jan. 22, 2011
Miami 120 at Toronto 103
Jan. 18, 2011
Miami 89 at Atlanta 93