Pacers at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-6.5, 180)
THE STORY: Just when everybody was jumping off the bandwagon, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade went out and showed why they are considered two of the very best players in the NBA. The two combined for 70 points in Game 4 and dominated the second half to lead the Miami Heat to a 101-93 victory, evening the series at 2-2. The Indiana Pacers had controlled the inside in Games 2 and 3 but struggled in Game 4.
ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana made it a point to establish Roy Hibbert and kept going back to him in Game 3, leading to 19 points and 18 rebounds from the big man in a strong effort. The Pacers got him the ball a few times in the first quarter for easy buckets in Game 4 but stopped going to that well as Miami pulled them out of their halfcourt game and spread the floor with a small lineup. Indiana is going to need more from David West, who was held to a series-low eight points on Sunday, and Hibbert down low, as they were outscored in the paint 50-32 in Game 4. Part of that has to do with the defense, which had done a fine job of keeping James and Wade out of the paint until the second half Sunday, when both had little trouble getting to the rim.
ABOUT THE HEAT: James went for 40 points, 18 rebounds and nine assists on Sunday, scoring or assisting on 61.4 percent of Miami’s points. Wade was nearly as strong, shaking off a terrible performance in Game 3 with 30 points, nine rebounds and six assists. Perhaps more importantly, the two found a reliable third scorer in Udonis Haslem, who chipped in 14 points on 5-of-6 shooting. With Chris Bosh still out, any points from Haslem, Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller or Shane Battier are a big bonus. Miami was also better from the outside in Game 4, connecting on 5 of 12 3-pointers after going a combined 5 for 42 in the first three games.
TRENDS:
*Heat is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.
*Under is 5-0 in Pacers' last five games playing on one day's rest.
*Underdog is 26-11-1 ATS in the last 38 meetings.
*Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road dogs.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Pacers swingman Danny Granger was hit with his second technical foul in as many games Sunday.
2. Wade went 2 of 6 from the free throw line Sunday, his fourth game this postseason hitting less than 70 percent from the stripe.
3. Indiana got 34 points off the bench in Game 4.
Game 5, Pacers-Heat
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Eastern Conference playoffs have seen significantly more drama than its counterparts in the Western Conference. The Pacers caught a monster break in the opening round by not having to worry about Dwight Howard as Indiana eliminated Orlando in five games. The fortune went Indiana's way again in the semifinals when Chris Bosh went down with an abdominal injury, as the Pacers won two of the first three games against the mighty Heat. However, things turned back Miami's way in Game 4.
The Heat evened up the series at two apiece heading back to South Florida for Tuesday's crucial Game 5, the only contest on the NBA playoff card. LeBron James showcased his MVP ways by putting up an unbelievable stat-line of 40 points, 18 rebounds, and 9 assists, while helping the Heat cash as a 1 ½-point road favorite, 101-93 in Game 4. Dwyane Wade overcame a horrendous Game 3 performance (2-13 FG) to compliment James by scoring 30 points and pulling down nine rebounds in Sunday's victory.
Indiana couldn't keep the momentum up following a strong first half showing, building a 54-46 advantage at intermission. The first half 'over' of 88 ½ easily cashed, while Frank Vogel's club took home the money at + ½ in the opening 24 minutes. The Heat rebounded in the second half as 3 ½-point favorites to outscore the Pacers, 55-39, as the team to win the final 24 minutes is a perfect 4-0 in the series.
In spite of Bosh's absence once again in Game 4 (and likely in Game 5), the Heat outrebounded the Pacers for the second time in the series on Sunday by a 47-38 margin. Not one Indiana player finished with double-digit rebounds, as Roy Hibbert led the Pacers with nine boards in Game 4. For the exception of Darren Collison's efficient 6-for-7 showing, Indiana shot 37.5% overall from the field, as four Pacers missed at least seven shots.
Sportsbook.ag has put up several interesting props, including who will meet in the NBA Finals with the current teams remaining in the postseason. The Heat and Spurs are on a collision course to hook up for the title at +120, while Miami and Oklahoma City locking horns for the championship sits at slightly higher odds (+250). Even though the Pacers are two wins away from the conference finals, the odds sit at 6/1 for an Indiana/San Antonio Finals matchup right now. However, a less-than-anticipated Pacers/Thunder meeting in June is set at 11/1 odds.
VegasInsider.com's Chris David analyzes the total situation through the first four contests of this series, "Despite watching Game 4 cash 'over' tickets, rather easily too, the oddsmakers didn't tweak the total on Game 5 that much and I'm a little surprised. Anybody that bets on basketball knows that totals are created on pace and the difference of going 'over' or 'under' is the number of made shots."
The foul shooting had plenty to do with an 'over' on Sunday, as David breaks down the stats, "The Heat took 80 shots on Sunday, while the Pacers attempted 79. And those numbers would be higher if both teams didn't combine to shoot 52 free throws."
Heading into Tuesday's contest, David sees another high-scoring game on the horizon, "Even though the 'under' has cashed in three of the first four games in this series, the value still points to the 'over' at this low price, especially when you look at the Game 1 opener of 189. I understand the Heat's offense is definitely hurting without Bosh but that also limits them defensively too. Indiana hasn't exactly had a breakout game offensively in this series and when it does, you could be celebrating early with a low number."
However, the Heat has compiled a 19-6 mark to the 'under' at home this season off a victory, including an 11-1 record the last 12 games in this situation. The Pacers own a 9-4 ATS ledger on the road off a loss, while cashing eight times in this role as an away underdog. Indiana is 5-2 ATS the last seven games as a road 'dog, while posting a 6-3 ATS away record the previous nine overall.
Miami is listed as 6½-point favorites in Tuesday's Game 5, as the total is set at 180 ½ across the board. The game tips off at 8:00 PM EST at American Airlines Arena, while the contest can be seen nationally on TNT.
NBA Preview
Pacers @ Heat (2-2 )-- Indiana substitutes are -91 in last three games; if James/ Wade go off again like they did in Game 4, seems like there is nothing Pacers can do. Miami is 10-55 behind arc in series, though they did improve to 5-12 last game; they shot 40%+ in their two series wins, under 38% in the two losses. 12 of last 15 Miami games stayed under total. Indy won six of last eight games since losing opener to Orlando. Heat is 5-7 when Bosh doesn't play; he's out for series.
Armadillosports.com
INDIANA (48 - 27) at MIAMI (52 - 23)
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-6 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 11-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indiana's last 10 games
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing at home against Indiana
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
Indiana at Miami
Indiana: 1-9 ATS away after playing as a home underdog
Miami: 9-1 Under at home vs. Central Division opponents