Heat at Thunder Game 4: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat (-3.5, 192.5)
THE STORY: For LeBron James, redemption stands just two victories away. James and the Miami Heat have a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals and can move within a win of capturing the title as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 on Tuesday night. James has been sensational so far in the series, dominating at the offensive end while frustrating Thunder superstar Kevin Durant in the process. Durant will need to stay out of foul trouble if Oklahoma City hopes to even the best-of-seven.
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Durant has played fewer minutes than he is accustomed to over the last two games, thanks to some rare foul issues. Durant picked up his fourth foul in the third quarter and was forced to the bench just as the Thunder appeared to be taking control of the game. Sure enough, the Heat fought back from a 10-point deficit and Durant was unable to put together yet another fourth-quarter rally as the Thunder dropped their second game in a row. "It's a tough break for us, man," said Durant, who finished with 25 points. "You know, I hate sitting on the bench, especially with fouls."
ABOUT THE HEAT: He has been called a turncoat, a prima donna and a choker - but James has managed to shrug off the haters and is putting together one of the best postseason performances in memory. He took over when the Heat needed him down the stretch, scoring 29 points and adding 14 rebounds. James has put together 13 straight games of 25-plus points so far in the postseason, looking as strong as he did in capturing the regular-season MVP award. "Last year I didn't make enough game-changing plays, and that's what I kind of pride myself on," he said. "I didn't do that last year in the Finals."
TRENDS:
- Over is 9-3-1 in Heat's last 13 overall.
- Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.
- Thunder are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Of the last 12 NBA Finals tied 1-1 after two games, the team winning Game 3 has gone on to capture the title 11 times. The only exception: Last year's championship, when Miami was up 2-1 against Dallas but lost the final three games.
2. The Thunder have connected on just 36 percent of their shots from 15 feet or further. They shot 45 percent from that range in the conference finals against San Antonio.
3. Heat F Shane Battier has 11 3-pointers through the first three games, tying Rashard Lewis for the most through three games in Finals history.
NBA Preview
-- Miami led Game 1 by 18, led 16-2 in Game 2, and were up 26-20 after first quarter in Game 3, so Thunder has to play better right from the tap here. Teams down 3-1 in NBA Finals are 0-30 in series, so while this is not a must-win game, its a damn-well-better win game for OC.
-- Thunder bench dominated first two games (+51 in 145 minutes), while Miami bench was -37 in 82 minutes, but in Game 3, OC's subs were -30 in 78:00, while Miami's bench was +17 in 39:00.
-- Thunder's FG% went down, from 51.9% in Game 1, to 43% in second game, to 42.8% in Game 3, which is normal; Miami's went up from 46.2% in Game 1 up to 47.4% in Game 2, but went down to 37.8% last game, but they were 31-35 from foul line, after taking only 43 foul shots combined in first two games.
-- Miami is 18-46 from arc in three games; Battier is 11-15, rest of squad is 7-31. Battier only took two shots last game, but he made both of 'em.
-- Sefolosha/Ibaka/Perkins, OC's"Little 3" starters, went just 4-15 from floor in Game 2, after going 9-17 in Game 1- they were 8-18 last game. Harden was 2-10 from floor and played poorly in 4th quarter.
-- Thunder is 4-4 on road in playoffs; Miami is 9-2 at home. Heat is 6-2 vs spread in game following a win in same series.
-- Notice that Miami had 54-55 points at halftime in first two games; in Game 3, they only had 47, but still led by a point.
-- Over is now 6-2-1 in last nine Miami games.
-- Notice that Thunder's scoring went from 105 to 96 to 85; how do they score? Transition hoops become more scarce as a series goes on, so they better execute better in halfcourt, or else.
Armadillosports.com
OKLAHOMA CITY (60 - 24) at MIAMI (60 - 27)
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-37 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 77-55 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-4 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-4 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing Miami
Oklahoma City is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City at Miami
Oklahoma City: 18-6 ATS off BB losses
Miami: 13-5 Under at home after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Game 4, Thunder-Heat
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Heat has buried their Game 1 meltdown as Miami owns a 2-1 series lead over Oklahoma City following Sunday's victory over the Thunder. The NBA Finals continue on Tuesday night at the American Airlines Arena in Miami, as the Heat goes for their third consecutive win in a playoff series for just the second time this postseason. Meanwhile, OKC looks to get on track after squandering a double-digit second half advantage in Game 3.
Miami rallied past Oklahoma City, 91-85 to cover as four-point favorites, while the game comfortably stayed 'under' the total of 193. The Heat nearly gave away the lead in the final minutes as the Thunder reeled off a 6-0 run to cut the deficit to 86-85. OKC went scoreless in the last 90 seconds, while the Heat knocked down five of six free throws to help Miami backers cash.
However, if you bet on the Thunder in the first half, lightning definitely struck thanks to a Russell Westbrook three-pointer in the final seconds. The Heat didn't cash first half tickets as Erik Spoelstra's team led 47-46, as the Thunder covered as 2½-point underdogs. The 'dog is a perfect 3-0 ATS in the opening half through the first three games of this series, while the first half 'under' has hit in consecutive games.
After the Thunder built a 64-54 advantage with 4:33 remaining in the third quarter, the wheels fell off the wagon. Miami used a 15-3 run to grab a two-point cushion at the end of three, while Westbrook and Kevin Durant were languishing on the OKC bench during this spurt. Durant scored only four points in the final quarter, as the Heat received 15 total points from LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh in the last seven minutes to take a 2-1 series edge for the second straight Finals.
Oklahoma City has dropped consecutive games for just the fifth time all season, as the Thunder owned just one losing skid of three games (April 2-6). The last time the Thunder lost back-to-back contests came in the Western Conference Finals, as OKC trounced San Antonio, 102-82 as four-point favorites. In the only other instance that Scott Brooks' club looked to snap a two-game losing streak on the road, the Thunder fell at Indiana, 103-98 in early April.
However, the Thunder have compiled a 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS road record this season against teams off consecutive victories. One of those covers came in James Harden's three-pointer at the buzzer in the opening game of the Western Conference Finals, as the Thunder narrowly cashed in a three-point defeat. Miami won 10 of 13 games this season against clubs off back-to-back setbacks, including a 5-0 SU and 2-3 ATS mark at home (four of the five wins came against non-playoff competition).
Prior to last year's NBA Finals, teams that won Game 3 with the series tied at 1-1 (in the 2-3-2 format) ended up claiming the championship on 11 of 11 occasions. However, the streak came to a crashing halt last June when Miami failed to win the title against Dallas in this situation after the Heat grabbed Game 3 in Texas. Game 4 has proven to be pivotal to determine a champion recently as five of the last six winners of this game hoisted the Larry O'Brien trophy (Celtics in 2010 the only team not to win it all).
From the player props perspective, Sportsbook.ag has listed a handful of these bets for tonight's contest. Durant's over/under for points is set at 29 (-115 each way), while Westbrook's total points and rebounds are also 29 (shaded to 'over' at -125). For the first time in the series, Durant was limited to below 30 points in Game 3 as the league's scoring champion put up just 25 in the loss. Westbrook combined for 35 points and rebounds in each of the first two games, but was held to 19 points and five boards in Game 3.
James looks to continue his playoff domination as Sportsbook.ag lists the total point for the three-time MVP tonight at 31 (-115 each way). The Heat superstar has busted the 31-point mark only once in the NBA Finals, but the other two games he tallied 30 and 29 points. Wade's total points and rebounds sits at 29½ (-115 each way), as the former Finals MVP busted that number in each of the last two wins for the Heat.
The number dropped from four to 3½ tonight, as the Heat goes for their consecutive cover in this series. The total is set at 192, going a shade backwards after the low-scoring affair on Sunday. The game tips off at 9:00 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ABC.