Celtics at Heat Game 5: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-8, 179.5)
THE STORY: The Eastern Conference finals are now a best-of-3 series as the Miami Heat host the Boston Celtics in Tuesday’s Game 5. Boston swept two home games and evened the best-of-7 series at 2-2 with a 93-91 overtime victory on Sunday. Rajon Rondo hit the go-ahead hoop for the Celtics and Dwyane Wade missed a final-second 3-pointer for the Heat. It was the second overtime contest of the series as Miami notched a 115-111 victory in Game 2.
ABOUT THE CELTICS: Rondo had 15 points and 15 assists in Game 4 and has 13 double-digit assist games in the postseason. Magic Johnson (14 in 1991) and John Stockton (14 in 1992) are the last players to have more in a single postseason. Forward Paul Pierce scored a team-best 23 points but the most pleasing sight was guard Ray Allen draining four 3-pointers on the way to a series-best 16 points. Allen’s shooting has been suspect due to an ankle injury. “My legs have gotten considerably better,” Allen said. “Just starting the game and having my legs underneath me is a huge deal.”
ABOUT THE HEAT: Forward LeBron James scored 29 points and Wade tallied 20 but Miami’s top player in Game 4 was forward Udonis Haslem. The nine-year veteran had his second double-double of the series with 12 points and 17 rebounds. James had 29 points and fouled out for the first time since joining the Heat, rendering him a spectator for the final 1:51 of overtime. “Not stressed the series is tied 2-2,” James said. “It’s great basketball, great competition.” Miami is holding out hope that forward Chris Bosh can return from a lower abdominal strain to play in Game 5. Bosh has missed nine straight games since being injured against the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the second-round series.
TRENDS:
- Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.
- Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
- Under is 25-9 in Heat's last 34 home games.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Rondo has 38 career 10-assist playoff games, tying Hall of Famer Bob Cousy for Boston’s franchise record.
2. Wade is shooting just 25.8 percent from the field and averaging 5.5 points in the first half during the series.
3. Celtics forward Kevin Garnett had 17 points and 14 rebounds in Game 4 for his third double-double of the series and 12th of the postseason.
Game 5, Celtics-Heat
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Eastern Conference Finals hasn't technically begun yet since the home team has won each of the first four games. Boston staved off Miami in overtime of Sunday's thrilling Game 4 with a 93-91 victory to cash as two-point underdogs, sending the series back to South Florida tied at two games apiece. Miami has plenty of concerns moving forward, but the Heat realizes it cannot dig themselves a huge hole like they have each of the last three games.
Erik Spoelstra's squad has fallen behind by at least 15 points in Games 2, 3, and 4, while finding a way to rally back and take the lead in the fourth quarter twice. Boston grabbed a 61-47 halftime advantage in Game 4, as the Heat has not led at the intermission one time in this series. The first half total easily sailed 'over' 89 ½, while the Celtics continue to be a money-maker in first half plays by cashing at pick-em. Boston built the lead to as much as 18 points before Miami rallied back.
The Heat's comeback in Game 3 fell short, but tried again in Game 4 by holding the Celtics to just 28 points in the second half. Miami captured the lead in the fourth quarter thanks to rookie Norris Cole, who scored four straight points to give the Heat a 78-76 advantage with 7:41 remaining. The Celtics came back to take the lead, but LeBron James drilled a three-pointer in the final minute to even things up and head to overtime. The three-time MVP fell short of his player prop (courtesy of Sportsbook.ag) of 37 combined points and assists by scoring 29 points and dishing out three assists before fouling out in overtime.
In spite of Paul Pierce fouling out in the extra session, the Celtics found a way to stave off the Heat, 4-2, while James also was disqualified for the first time in his Heat tenure after picking up an offensive foul. The game barely finished 'over' the total, as Dwyane Wade's three-point attempt at the buzzer didn't go in, while the Heat has lost two games in a playoff series for the third time in seven attempts in the Big Three era.
Looking ahead to Game 5, there is a slight chance that third member of Miami's star trio may return to the lineup. Chris Bosh has sat out each of the previous nine contests with an abdominal injury, but there are reports that the All-Star forward will try to suit up and play on Tuesday. Miami finished this season at 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS at home when Bosh was the only player to sit out, as the lone loss came to Indiana in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Miami definitely steps up at home coming off a loss, owning a spectacular 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS this season in that situation, while scoring at least 97 points on 10 occasions. The Celtics have put together a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS record in the postseason on the highway off a victory, as Boston looks to snap a seven-game losing streak as a road underdog off a win.
From the totals standpoint, VegasInsider.com's Chris David breaks things down heading into Tuesday, "Even though the 'over' has gone 3-1 in the first four games of this series, the oddsmakers have kept their ratings in check and haven't swayed much on the total. The number has ranged from 178½ to 179½ and Game 5 is no different, with the number opening at 180 and settling at 179½ points.
"When you have low totals like this and you get good shooting performances, you're going to see the 'over' cash more often than not and that's what has happened in this series. The pace hasn't been fast, and the amount of free throws attempted was only ridiculous in Game 2 when the pair combined for 76 trips to the charity stripe," David adds.
Heading into Tuesday's contest, David looks for a low-scoring game than what was seen in Boston, "For Game 5, I would lean 'under' based on the pace and you would expect the refs to let them play a little more in this key game. Also, the return of Bosh should help Miami defensively. The one thing that's hard to ignore is that the 'over' has cashed at a 67% clip (8-4) in the last 12 meetings between these teams and Miami's offense at home operates much more efficiently."
The Heat is back to laying heavy wood at home, sitting as eight-point favorites. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST from American Airlines Arena and can be seen nationally on ESPN.
NBA Preview
Celtics @ Heat (2-2) -- Home teams are now 7-1 in this round, after the Spurs lost last night; much like SA, tremendous pressure on host Heat here, to win as expected. Wade/Chalmers combined to shoot 12-35 last game, with James taking only eight FTs; he took 13 FTs in two games in Boston, after taking 24 last time teams met here. Over is now 7-3 in ten Celtic playoff wins; under is 4-2-1 in their losses, so containing Rondo is job #1. He has 77 points, 35 assists in last three games and has kicked Miami's butt at every turn. When Miami went smaller late in Game 4, it defended well but couldn't get a rebound when it counted; Miami is 6-4 vs spread at home in these playoffs.
Armadillosports.com
BOSTON (49 - 34) at MIAMI (56 - 25)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 69-96 ATS (-36.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
BOSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 17-8 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 16-9 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
15 of 25 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Boston at Miami
Boston: 8-19 ATS after scoring 60+ first-half points
Miami: 7-1 ATS off BB losses