NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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Milwaukee won 97-83 on road in Game 1, holding Raptors to 36% from floor; Toronto shot twice as many FT’s (33-15) but they were held to 32 second half points by Bucks squad that is in the playoffs for first time since 2015; they’re 0-6 in playoff series the last 15 years- their last first round series win was in 2001. Toronto is 3-2 vs Milwaukee this season but lost last two meetings, by 7-14 points. Under is 5-0-1 in Bucks’ last six games, 6-4 in Toronto’s last ten. Raptors are 12-3 in last 15 games, but a loss here and they head to Wisconsin down 2-0.
Celtics are now 2-9 in playoffs under Stevens; Boston star Thomas is playing under cloud of his 22-year old sister dying Saturday- he goes to her funeral tomorrow. Celtics were 14-38 on arc in Game 1 loss; they’re 9-4 in last 13 games overall, but are also 1-7 vs spread in last eight home tilts. Chicago is now 8-2 in its last ten games; five of their last six games stayed under the total. Home side won four of five Chicago-Boston games this season. Of previous 11 #8-seeds to upset a #1-seed in Game 1 of a series, three of the 11 wound up winning the series.
Utah big man Gobert (knee) is out for this game, which forces Favors to play more, and then Jazz has to play smaller. Utah is +102 this season with Favors on floor, if they didn’t play night before. Jazz are 2-3 against the Clippers this year, 1-2 here, with both losses by 13+ points. Clippers won seven of their last eight games (4-3-1 vs spread); over is 7-6 in their last 13 games. LA was just 8-24 on arc in Game 1; they need to play with desperation here, to avoid going to Salt Lake City down 2-0. Six of last nine Utah games stayed under the total.
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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors shameful record in playoff series opener's took another turn for the worst Saturday as Dinos were thrashed 97-83 by Milwaukee Bucks. Raptors are now a wretched 1-11 both straight-up and against the betting line in its post season series opener's.
However, supporters can take comfort in knowing Raptors sordid series opener's have routinely been followed with tickets being cashed. The Raptors have a 7-3-1 record against the betting line. Raptors entering 12-3 the last feeting meetings treating supporters to a 9-5-1 record at the betting window are worth a second look.
Currently Bodog.eu has Raptors -7.5 point favorites
Tuesday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors (-7.5, 193)
ABOUT THE BUCKS (43-40 SU, 37-46 ATS, 41-40-2 O/U): The Bucks didn't look like a team that lost 13 of their past 15 regular-season games to the Raptors when it carried play and produced a 97-83 victory in the opener. The series is seen as a time for the 22-year Antetokounmpo to shine and he did that by making 13-of-18 shots, collecting eight rebounds and playing his typical team-style brand of basketball. "I'm going to find open guys," Antetokounmpo told reporters. "If I start thinking about who they're going to put on me, it's not going to work. I don't even think about who they're going to put on me." Rookie guard Malcolm Brogdon contributed 16 points and made four 3-point baskets in Game 1 while center Greg Monroe contributed 14 points and 15 rebounds off the bench.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (51-32 SU, 45-37-1 ATS, 44-39 O/U): The Game 1 defeat pushes the third-seeded Raptors in recognizable territory as they have dropped eight consecutive playoff series openers. All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry missed all six 3-point attempts and tallied just four points in the opener as he continues to be a dismal performer in the postseason. Lowry experienced major shooting issues last year while finishing at 30.4 percent from long range in 20 games and he was already surly with reporters while claiming it is time for some of his teammates to step up. "That's one thing about the playoffs, teams are gonna game plan for me and DeMar," Lowry told reporters. "We gotta figure out ways to make tough shots or everybody else gotta help us. We gotta get other guys to get even more open looks."
LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as 7.5-point home favorites for Game 2 and the total hit the board at 193.
INJURY REPORT:
Bucks - PF J. Parker (Out For Season, knee).
Raptors - PF S. Ibaka (Probable, ankle).
TRENDS:
* Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Bucks last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Under is 7-1 in Raptors last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-7, 205.5)
ABOUT THE BULLS (41-41 SU, 43-40 ATS, 33-49-1 O/U): Chicago had a 53-36 rebounding advantage and hauled in 20 on the offensive end, including 16 in the first half. Jimmy Butler scored 23 of his 30 points in the second half and helped guard Thomas down the stretch. Bobby Portis provided a huge lift for Chicago off the bench in Game 1 by recording 19 points, nine rebounds and two blocked shots in 29 minutes. "He was one of our new, young guys that hasn't had any playoff experience that I wasn't worried about," coach Fred Hoiberg told the media. "Because he's going to go out there and play with unbelievable confidence, he's going to play with swagger, he's just a kid that's going to go out there and lay it on the line." Veteran Dwyane Wade had 11 points and six assists in his fourth game back from an elbow injury and he will move into the top 25 in NBA history when he plays in his 168th career playoff game Tuesday.
ABOUT THE CELTICS (53-29 SU, 40-41-2 ATS, 40-39-4 O/U): Isaiah Thomas and the Boston Celtics will try to rebound from an emotional Game 1 loss when they continue their Eastern Conference first-round series with the visiting Chicago Bulls on Tuesday. Hours after learning that his sister died in a car accident in Washington, Thomas bravely led the Celtics with 33 points, but his team was dominated inside as the Bulls stole the opener 106-102 on Easter Sunday. Coach Brad Stevens told reporters that he would let Thomas decide whether he wants to play Game 2 or be with family in Washington, stating: "Whatever he needs to do, he needs to do, and we'll help in any way." Regardless of the status of their leader, Boston needs more of a support system on the court, as six reserves combined to score 22 points on 8-of-22 shooting in Game 1. Starting forward Jae Crowder, who scored at least 11 points in 13 of his final 14 regular-season games, was limited to nine while shooting 4-for-12 on Sunday.
LINE HISTORY: The Celtics opened as six-point home favorites for Game 2 and that spread was quickly bet up to -7 by Monday night. The total hit the board at 205 and currently sits at 205.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Bulls - No injuries to report.
Celtics - PG I. Thomas (Probable, personal).
TRENDS:
* Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Celtics are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 Tuesday games.
* Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers (-9, 196.5)
ABOUT THE JAZZ (52-31 SU, 37-42-4 ATS, 42-41 O/U): Veteran reserve Joe Johnson's buzzer-beater lifted the Jazz to a 97-95 victory in the opener of the best-of-seven set as the squad overcame a difficult injury. Center Rudy Gobert, whose breakout season helped Utah return to the playoffs for the first time since 2012, suffered a knee injury on the opening possession of the contest, leaving his status for the rest of the series in doubt. Forward Derrick Favors was summoned off the bench when Gobert was hurt and he - along with Johnson - should see an uptick in minutes with the team's big man sidelined. Favors finished with 15 points on 7-of-10 shooting in 32 minutes while Johnson was the team's top scorer with 21 points on 9-of-14. It will take a committee approach on the boards without Gobert - who was fourth in the NBA in rebounding (12.8 ) during the regular season - and All-Star forward Gordon Hayward did his part with 10 rebounds in Game 1, his best single-game total since Dec. 21.
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (51-32 SU, 40-42-1 ATS, 44-38-1 O/U): The Clippers were forced to wrestle with the loss of home-court advantage and know that they can ill afford to go back to Utah down 2-0 in the series.Los Angeles is insisting there is no need to panic following the Game 1 loss, and its own playoff history is helping the players understand that it's a long haul. "A lot of guys have played enough playoff games to know it's truly a series," forward Blake Griffin told the Los Angeles Times. "Everybody says that. But we've been up 2-0 several times and lost a series [to Portland]. We've been up 3-1 and lost a series [to Houston]. We've lost a first game and won a series. So it doesn't really matter, you know?" Griffin scored a game-high 26 points and center DeAndre Jordan had 10 and 15 boards, but the Clippers struggled to free up their shooters, as guards J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford combined for 15 points on 7-of-19 shooting, including 1-of-7 from 3-point range.
LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as 7.5-point home favorites for Game 2 but that line was bumped to -9 after Gobert's status was confirmed. The total opened at 196.5 and dropped a full point to 195.5 before returning to the opening number by Tuesday morning.
INJURY REPORT:
Jazz - PG R. Neto (Questionable, ankle), C R. Gobert (Out, knee).
Clippers - PG A. Rivers (Out, hamstring), C D. Stone (Out Indefinitely, knee).
TRENDS:
* Jazz are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 14-3 in Clippers last 17 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The NBA Playoffs had eight games take place over the weekend and we saw three underdogs capture outright victories on the road. Coincidentally, all three of those series will take place on Tuesday and the oddsmakers are expecting the home squads to get even.
If you follow the NBA on a regular basis, then you’re probably aware of the well-known postseason angle called the Zig-Zag Theory. I suggest you delve into the system before checking out my handicap of tonight’s card.
Eastern Conference First Round
Milwaukee at Toronto
The Bucks put forth a full 48-minute effort on Saturday as they captured a 97-83 win over the Raptors in Game 1 as eight-point underdogs. Bettors feeling confident with Milwaukee could have taken advantage of a generous money-line payout as high as 3/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $300).
Toronto actually led this contest 51-45 despite falling behind 30-22 after the first quarter. Then, things unraveled for the Raptors in the second-half as they couldn’t buy a shot. Toronto was 7-of-35 (20%) in the final two quarters and 27-of-75 (36%) for the game.
The Bucks didn’t have a great night shooting (44.7%) as a team but Giannis Antetokounmpo certainly stood out as the best player on the floor. The All-Star finished with 28 points and eight rebounds while the Raptors top pair of DeMar DeRozan (27) and Kyle Lowry (4) combined for just 31 points.
The Lowry issue in the playoffs is tough to figure out and certainly not getting better for Toronto. After Saturday's effort, the point guard is now the second-worst 3-point shooter amongst active players in the postseason at 30.1 percent and his overall field goal percentage is tied for worst at 37.9 percent.
Losing Game 1 of a playoff series has become a familiar trend for the Raptors and this was the eighth consecutive loss in an opening game.
Will Toronto bounce back in the second installment?
In last year’s playoffs, the Raptors answered the bell at home in Game 2 versus the Pacers (98-87) and Heat (96-92) after losing the opener but only went 1-1 against the spread in those games. As I mentioned in Saturday’s piece, Toronto has not been a sound investment in the playoffs at home. Since the club made its return during the 2014 postseason, the Raptors have gone 8-7 at the Air Canada Centre as home favorites. More importantly, they’re only 3-11-1 against the spread in those games.
Toronto has been installed as a 7½-point favorite for Game 2 and even though Milwaukee has now won two straight versus the Raptors, it did drop 13 of the previous 14 encounters. Another reason that could have you leaning to the chalk is the fact that the Raptors went 28-13 at home in the regular season and they only dropped back-to-back games once.
After watching Game 1 go ‘under’ (197½) on Saturday, the oddsmakers sent out a total of 193½ for Game 2 and that number has dipped to 193 as of Monday. Including the outcome from the opener, the Bucks have seen the ‘under’ go 5-0-1 in their last six on the road.
The Raptors (-160) still remain the series favorite over the Bucks (+130) at Sportsbook.ag.
Game 3 is scheduled for Thursday from the Bradley Center in Milwaukee.
Eastern Conference First Round
Chicago at Boston
Handicapping emotion is never easy and that played a major factor on Sunday in Game 1 of this series as Boston point guard Isaiah Thomas was grieving with the tragic loss of his 22-year-old sister, which occurred a day earlier.
The floor general put for a great effort as he scored 33 points but Chicago outlasted Boston 106-102 in the opener as a seven-point road underdog. The Bulls closed plus-255 on the money-line.
Boston forward Al Horford summed up the night for the Celtics and it appears that the tragedy took a toll on the entire club. “'We're never going to make excuses, but this is hard,” Horford said. “This was difficult, and I felt like our guys really dealt with it best. We knew (Thomas) was hurting...we have a lot of respect for him that he was able to come out.”
Horford wasn’t spectacular on Sunday, but he put forth a decent effort with 19 points, eight assists, seven rebounds. Outside of the two All-Stars, the rest of the Celtics shot a combined 19-of-55 (34%) from the field and that’s not going to cut it in the playoffs. Thomas is expected to play in Game 2 on Tuesday for Boston.
Chicago got a monster night out of Jimmy Butler, who stepped up with 30 points and nine rebounds. Forward Jimmy Portis also came up huge, with 19 points off the bench as the reserves for the Bulls outscored their counterparts 35-22. Chicago also had a tremendous edge on the glass (53-36) with Portis and Butler both pulling down nine a piece while Robin Lopez added 11 rebounds.
Whenever you see the home team losing Game 1 of a series, the line usually spikes up in the rematch. That wasn't the case in Game 2 as the Celtics opened as 6½-point favorites and the line has been bet down to 6 at most betting shops on Monday afternoon. However, Boston went up to a seven-point 'chalk' after the team announced Thomas would play.
A lot of pundits believe the top seed is in trouble but it’s hard to ignore the fact that they went 30-11 at home in the regular season. Unfortunately for bettors, they only managed to go 17-24 ATS in those games and they’re now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played at home after Sunday’s result.
Oddsmakers still have the Celtics (-145) listed as the series favorite over the Bulls (+125) but that number has been trimmed down a lot after the Game 1 outcome. Perhaps some bettors are starting to realize that head coach Brad Stevens is now 2-9 in the postseason and Chicago is the more experienced squad in this matchup.
I don’t believe Chicago is more talented than Boston but you can’t overlook its current form. The Bulls closed the season with a 9-4 record and the defense only allowed 97.9 points per game during this run. They’re 6-0 in their last six when holding teams below 100 and Boston barely got there on Sunday.
As a visitor, the Bulls have gone 7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) in their last nine away from home and the two non-covers came when they were favored against the lowly Nets and Knicks.
With the help of a 60-point fourth quarter, the combined 208 points in Game 1 barely went ‘over’ the closing number of 206½. The oddsmakers opened 207 for Game 2 and savvy bettors dropped that number quickly to 204½ but most shops are holding 205 or 206 as of Monday evening.
The Bulls are tied with the Warriors as the best ‘under’ teams in the NBA (50-33).
Game 3 of this series will take place on Friday from the United Center.
Western Conference First Round
Utah at Los Angeles Clippers
The 4-5 matchup in the Western Conference was expected to be tight and Game 1 lived up to those expectations as Utah captured a 97-95 win over Los Angeles as a six-point road underdog last Saturday. Veteran Joe Johnson hit a running floater as time expired for the Jazz as they cashed on the money-line at a plus-205 price.
The victory was bitter-sweet for the Jazz, who lost center Rudy Gobert in the opening minutes of Game 1 to a knee injury. He’s been ruled 'out' for Game 2 and forward Derrick Favors is expected to start in his place.
Even with Gobert missing 47 minutes on Saturday, the Clippers were unable to take advantage of his absence. The trio of Chris Paul (25 points, 11 assists), Blake Griffin (26 points, 7 reblunds) and DeAndre Jordan all had (10 points, 15 rebounds) all had decent games for the Clippers but the rest of the team was outplayed. The Jazz bench outscored the reserves of the Clippers 47-20 with Johnson leading the way with 21 points and Favors chipped in with 15 off the pine as well.
The Game 1 loss for the Clippers snapped their seven-game winning streak and it was just their third setback in their last 14. Los Angeles hasn’t dropped back-to-back games since mid-March and it has gone 3-0 both SU and ATS after a loss during this span. Make a note that Los Angeles is 10-0 in its last 10 games when scoring over 100 points.
Without the defensive menace Gobert roaming the middle, more than 95 points should be expected from Los Angeles on Tuesday. He only missed one game this regular season and Utah dropped a 112-104 decision at Oklahoma City.
Including Saturday’s result, Utah is now 2-3 both SU and ATS versus Los Angeles this season. Prior to those outcomes, the Clippers were 13-1 against the Jazz in the previous four seasons.
Los Angeles opened as a 7½-point favorite for Tuesday but the Gobert injury status has pushed the line up to nine. The Jazz have gone 8-8 on the road in the second-half of the season, but are just 4-5 when listed as a road ‘dog. They managed to cover one of the losses but it’s still rare to see them cover when catching points in these spots.
Despite the loss on Saturday, the Clippers are still expected to win the best-of-seven series (-150) over the Jazz (+130).
The total on Saturday closed at 198½ and Johnson’s winner likely saved ‘under’ bets. The low side has gone 3-2 between the pair this season and Game 2 is expected to be another slugfest with the number hovering between 195 and 196 at most betting shops.
After this game, the pair will head to Salt Lake City on Friday for Game 3.