NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, April 25th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Memphis won Games 3-4 but have still lost last eight road games (2-6 vs spread), including a loss to the Lakers. Spurs were +18 with Leonard on court in Game 4; they were -20 in 9:00 he sat out. Home side won all four Memphis-San Antonio games in this series, last eight meetings overall; Grizzlies lost last four visits to Alamo (2-2 vs spread)- they won Game 4 at home despite -13 (22-9) turnover ratio. Under is 7-5 in last 12 series games; over is 5-1 in Spurs’ last six games. Memphis bench was +19 in two home wins, after being -98 in first two series games. Grizzlies are 5-11 in their last sixteen gams overall.
Rockets used only three subs in Game 4 win; they scored 28-18-18 points, were combined +52 as Houston bench continues to be the difference. Houston won six of eight games with OKC this year; six of the eight were decided by 4 or less points, with Rockets winning six of last seven. Houston was +26/+10/+5 /+8 in 2nd half in this series; Thunder led last three games at halftime. Six of last eight Thunder games stayed under the total- Under is 8-5 in Rockets’ last 13 games. OKC shot 37% from floor in Game 1, 41.2% in Game 2, 55.4% in Game 3, which is unusual. Harden/Beverley shot a combined 7-29 in Game 4 and Houston still won.
Clippers are 7-3 in last ten games with Utah, but this series is 2-2, with each team 1-1 on each court. Jazz lost three of last four series games played here (2-2 vs spread). Four of last six series games went over total. Utah bench had 66-37 scoring edge in Game 4; with Griffin out, LA’s bench is somewhat depleted. Clippers shot 44% in their two series losses, 52%+ in two series wins- all four series games have been decided by 8 or less points. Utah lost three of last five road games, with last four staying under total. Clippers won five of their last six at home (2-3-1 vs spread, under 4-2).
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Western Conference First Round
No. 6 Oklahoma City at No. 3 Houston
2016-17 Postseason (Rockets 3-1)
Apr. 16 Thunder at Rockets (-7.5) 118-87 (Under 228.5)
Apr. 19 Thunder at Rockets (-7.5) 115-111 (Over 224.5)
Apr. 21 Rockets at Thunder (-2.5) 115-113 (Over 224)
Apr. 21 Rockets (+1) at Thunder 113-109 (Under 223)
The one-man wrecking crew of Russell Westbrook put up loaded box scores in the regular season, but there’s only so much one star can do. Westbrook and the Thunder are one loss away from elimination, one season after sitting one victory away from the NBA Finals alongside Kevin Durant.
Houston jumped out to a 2-0 series lead after a pair of victories at Toyota Center, while splitting two games in Oklahoma City to grab a commanding 3-1 edge. Following a 115-113 defeat in Game 3, the Rockets rebounded with a 113-109 road triumph in Sunday’s Game 4 by outscoring the Thunder, 40-32 in the fourth quarter. James Harden wasn’t the star for Houston, as the MVP candidate was limited to 16 points on 5-of-16 shooting, but Nene stepped up off the bench by shooting a perfect 12-of-12 from the floor for 28 points.
Back to Westbrook, who manufactured another triple-double by scoring a game-high 35 points, pulling down 14 rebounds, and dishing out 14 assists. However, Andre Roberson missed 10 free throws, while Westbrook misfired on 18 of 28 shots from the floor. Six of eight meetings between the Rockets and Thunder this season have been decided by four points or less, but Houston has covered each of the last two games in the underdog role.
Oklahoma City returns as an underdog in Game 5 as the team receiving points in this matchup has compiled a 5-3 ATS mark this season. Houston is looking to advance past the first round for the first time since the 2015 playoffs, as the Rockets won and covered in both close-out games at home against the Mavericks and Clippers.
VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David would suggest bettors to check out some quarter wagers in the OKC-Houston matchup. “The Rockets have been all about finishing in this series and what they’ve done in the fourth quarter is crazy. Through four games, Houston is plus-38 in the final 12 minutes of this series and that includes a plus-29 at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City owns a plus-23 edge in the first quarter of the four games. Grabbing the Thunder +2½ points in the first quarter of Game 5 could be a lean based on what we’ve seen thus far and I would definitely keep my ‘Live Betting’ options open as the final stanza nears, “ said David.
Western Conference First Round
No. 7 Memphis at No. 2 San Antonio
2016-17 Postseason (Tied 2-2)
Apr. 15 Grizzlies at Spurs (-9.5) 111-82 (Over 190)
Apr. 17 Grizzlies at Spurs (-10.5) 96-82 (Under 189)
Apr. 20 Spurs at Grizzlies (+3.5) 105-94 (Over 188)
Apr. 22 Spurs at Grizzlies (+5) 110-108 OT (Over 187.5)
Things looked bleak for Memphis following a pair of double-digit losses at San Antonio to begin the playoffs. However, head coach David Fizdale’s rallying cry following the Game 2 defeat regarding the officiating and his now-famous quote, “Take that for data” lit a spark under the Grizzlies. Memphis pulled away from San Antonio, 105-94 in Game 3, followed by an overtime triumph in Game 4 to even things up heading back to the Alamo.
The Grizzlies and Spurs went back-and-forth in the final minute as Mike Conley, Jr. tied the game at 96-96 with four seconds remaining. Marc Gaso drilled a jumper at the buzzer in overtime to give Memphis a 110-108 victory and turn the series into a best-of-three. Conley posted 35 points on 13-of-23 shooting, while Gasol put up a double-double with 16 points and 12 rebounds as the Grizzlies improved to 4-0 this season against the Spurs at FedEx Forum.
After scoring only 18 points in Game 3, Kawhi Leonard dropped 43 points in the Game 4 setback, the third time he has put up at least 32 points in the series. Point guard Tony Parker was held scoreless in Game 3, but he rebounded in Game 4 by scoring 22 points, but only three Spurs posted double-figures on Saturday (LaMarcus Aldridge, 13 points).
Memphis will try pick up its first victory at San Antonio this season, while the Grizzlies have compiled a 1-7 SU/ATS record in their last eight road playoff games since 2015. The Spurs have dominated at home in the playoffs since Game 7 of the opening round in 2014 by putting together a 15-5 SU/ATS record. Last season, home teams posted a 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS record in Game 5 of a series tied at 2-2, but one of the losses came by San Antonio to Oklahoma City in the second round as the Spurs eventually were eliminated by the Thunder.
David was impressed with what Memphis did at home in this series but he expects the club to receive a huge reality check on Tuesday at San Antonio, especially its offense.
He explained, “The Spurs dropped back-to-back games three times during the regular season and their longest losing streak was three, which happened at the end of the season when they rested play in the final week. Looking back at the three situations when facing a possible third loss, San Antonio went 3-0 both SU and ATS with wins coming by 10, 14 and 16 points. The defense only surrendered 94 PPG and considering Memphis scored exactly 82 points in each of the first two games, I would lean to the Grizzlies team total ‘under’ (89) as a very strong look in Game 5.”
Western Conference First Round
No. 5 Utah at No. 4 L.A. Clippers
2016-17 Postseason (Tied 2-2)
Apr. 15 Jazz (+5.5) at Clippers 97-95 (Under 198)
Apr. 18 Jazz at Clippers (-9) 99-91 (Under 199.5)
Apr. 21 Clippers (-1.5) at Jazz 111-106 (Over 197.5)
Apr. 23 Clippers at Jazz (-5) 105-98 (Over 196)
The one series that has flown under the radar is the 4/5 matchup between the Clippers and Jazz. Injuries have played a major part in this series as Utah big man Rudy Gobert hurt his left knee in the opening minute of Game 1 and didn’t return to the lineup until Game 4. Jazz leading scorer Gordon Hayward didn’t play in the second half of Sunday’s Game 4 comeback victory over Los Angeles as he suffered from food poisoning.
The Clippers played without Blake Griffin on Sunday as the All-Star forward injured his toe in the Game 3 win on Friday and is unavailable for the rest of the postseason. Los Angeles led Utah by three points heading into the fourth quarter in Game 4, but the Jazz managed to knock off the Clippers, 105-98 by limiting the Clippers to 18 points in the final 12 minutes. Past Chris Paul’s 28 points and Jamal Crawford’s 25 points off the bench, the Clippers’ offense didn’t receive much help elsewhere, while anyone not named Crawford on L.A. combined to go 6-of-25 from three-point range.
Utah’s bench stepped up after Hayward exited the game as Joe Johnson scored 28 points on 12-of-17 shooting, while Derrick Favors rebounded from a poor effort in Game 3 to put up 17 points and six boards. The Jazz won their first home playoff game since Game 6 of the first round against the Nuggets back in 2010, while the Clippers slipped to 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight playoff games away from Staples Center since 2015.
Dating back to January 1, Doc Rivers’ squad has fared well off a road loss by going 8-3 in their previous 11 games in this situation, including a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as a home favorite. The Clippers have cashed the UNDER in four of the past five home playoff games since 2016, which is in stark contrast to the 6-1 OVER mark at home in the 2015 postseason.
Tuesday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets (-7.5, 223)
ABOUT THE THUNDER (48-38 SU, 46-39-1 ATS, 39-46-1 O/U): As Thunder star Russell Westbrook tries to shut down questions about his supporting cast, Houston received a mammoth performance in Game 4 from long-forgotten Nene to take the 3-1 series lead. Westbrook's testy nature went up several octaves after Game 4, when a reporter asked center Steven Adams about the fact that Oklahoma City was outscored by 18 points during the nine minutes Westbrook was rested. "I don't want nobody to try and split us up," Westbrook interjected. "We all one team. Regardless if I go to the bench, or Steven's on the floor, or if I'm off the floor, we in this together. Don't split us up. Don't try to make us go against each other -- try to make it Russell and the rest of the guys, or Russell against Houston. I don't want to hear that." The supporting cast includes subpar series performances from shooting guard Victor Oladipo (11-point average on 38.6 percent shooting), Adams (8.3 points, 6.3 rebounds) and backup center Enes Kanter (six points, 2.3 rebounds).
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (58-28 SU, 45-41 ATS, 43-42-1 O/U): The 34-year-old Nene scored 28 points on 12-of-12 shooting as the Rockets prevailed 113-109 on Sunday on a day in which star guard James Harden didn't have much in the tank while scoring 16 points on 5-of-16 shooting. Nene is an astounding 23-of-25 from the field in the series, and his 12-for-12 outing in Game 4 matched the NBA postseason record for most field goals without a miss set by Kansas City-Omaha Kings forward Larry McNeill in 1975. The veteran with 620 regular-season starts to his credit, and who survived a bout with testicular cancer in 2008, is content with his role, which includes providing important leadership for Harden. "He is my mentor, believe it or not," Harden told reporters. "I watch him every single day do some work. He's in the weight room. He's doing a lot of the right things to get his body and mind right to go out there to compete at a high level every single night."
LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened as 7.5-point home favorites as they attempt to finish off the Thunder. The total hit the betting board at 223. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Thunder - No injuries to report.
Rockets - SF S. Dekker (Early May, hand).
TRENDS:
* Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Thunder are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-10, 186.5)
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (45-41 SU, 43-43 ATS, 41-42-3 O/U): Seventh-seeded Memphis still needs to steal a game in San Antonio to win the series and dropped the first two at the Spurs by a combined 43 points. Gasol hit the game winner but it was point guard Mike Conley doing his best two keep up with Leonard that kept Memphis in the game and helped them even the series. Conley set a franchise postseason record with 35 points in the Game 4 triumph and is averaging 24 points and 7.8 assists in the series. "The guy’s a superstar," Grizzlies coach David Fizdale told reporters of Conley. "You’ve watched it happen this year, but now you’re watching it on the biggest stage with the biggest lights, and he’s really rising to the occasion. Can you think of a guy you’d rather root for? This guy is as good of a human being as you can get. Whatever good happens for him, I expect it, and I’m just really proud of his evolution as a player."
ABOUT THE SPURS (63-23 SU, 43-41-2 ATS, 46-38-2 O/U): What looked like an easy series for the San Antonio Spurs after the first two games is turning into quite the battle as the Memphis Grizzlies gain confidence and find the win column. Leonard scored a career playoff-high 43 points in Game 4 to mark the third time in the series he either matched or exceeded a previous personal best. The San Diego State product went 7-of-10 from 3-point range and added eight rebounds and six steals while the rest of the San Antonio squad went a combined 2-of-20 from beyond the arc in the loss. "Honestly, I’m taking suggestions on how to guard Kawhi Leonard," Fizdale told reporters. "I’ve tried everything, and the guy is just tough. Man, is he a superstar."
LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as nine-point home favorites for this important Game 5 and by Monday night that spread was up to -10. The total opened at 187 and dropped slightly to 186.5. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Grizzlies - SG T. Allen (Out Indefinitely, calf), SF C. Parsons (Out For Season, knee).
Spurs - C D. Dedmon (Probable, illness).
TRENDS:
* Grizzlies are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Spurs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 road games.
* Over is 8-1 in Spurs last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in San Antonio.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers (-3, 196.5)
ABOUT THE JAZZ (53-33 SU, 39-43-4 ATS, 44-42 O/U): The Utah Jazz are hoping to have a healthy Gordon Hayward available when they visit the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday in the pivotal Game 5 of the Western Conference first-round series. Hayward came down with food poisoning on Sunday and was only able to play nine minutes in that night's 105-98 victory over the Clippers to tie the series at two games apiece. Hayward poured in a career-high 40 points in Game 3 but the story was different two days later as he took IV fluids prior to the game to no avail. Utah did get center Rudy Gobert (knee) back, and he contributed 15 points and 13 rebounds, while swingman Joe Johnson stepped up with 28 points on 12-of-17 shooting to raise his scoring average in the series to 19.3. "Just trying to be aggressive and make plays," Johnson told reporters of his strong performance. "We had to get stops, which kind of fueled our offense. ... We were getting into the teeth of the defense, whether we had layups, dunks or kick-outs for 3s. I thought we did a good job of making the right decision."
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (53-33 SU, 41-44-1 ATS, 46-39-1 O/U): The Clippers are without one of their main cogs in forward Blake Griffin (toe), and point guard Chris Paul was highly disappointed that Los Angeles let the Jazz stage a fourth-quarter rally. Not having Griffin to operate inside during the fourth-quarter collapse in Game 4 magnified his absence as fill-in starter Marreese Speights was largely ineffective with five points on 2-of-8 shooting. Los Angeles will be relying on the backcourt play of Paul (27 points in Game 4), Jamal Crawford (25 points) and J.J. Redick for the remainder of the series. Crawford drained 5-of-7 3-point attempts on Sunday after missing all 11 he put up over the first three games.
LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as three-point home favorites and by Monday night that spread was up slightly to -3.5. The total hit the board at 196.5 and has yet to move off that opening number. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Jazz - SF G. Hatward (Probable, illness), SG A. Burks (Out, knee).
Clippers - PG A. Rivers (Probable, hamstring), PF B. Griffin (Out For Season, toe), C D. Stone (Out Indefinitely, knee).
TRENDS:
* Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.
* Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 Tuesday games.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.
Tuesday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Memphis vs. San Antonio
Sportsbook.ag Odds: San Antonio (-10); Total set at 187
This series has surprised some at being 2-2 after four games, but it's turned out to be one of those classic NBA playoff series where home court really matters. Both teams are are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home in this series and that bodes well for San Antonio's chances here in Game 5.
The Spurs failed to get the job done for us in Game 4, but it wasn't because of a lack of effort, but the double-digit chalk they are laying at home tonight is a little steep given that the Grizzlies now have much more confidence and belief in themselves that they can actually win this series.
That brings us to the total for tonight and it's been the totals in these games that more bettors have preferred to attack as they've been the lowest numbers in this postseason and bettors subscribing to that line of thought have done quite well.
Three of the four games in this series have cashed 'over' tickets rather easily with the numbers always being in the 186-190 range, with Game 4's 110-108 OT result being the highest scoring game of the bunch.
Even without the extra frame these two still combined for 192 points – still good enough to cash the 'over' – but oddsmakers haven't let those lopsided results differ their approach as they've hung another number in the high 180's again tonight.
Given those results, it's no surprise to see VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers on tonight's total have more than 90% of the bets placed on the 'over' so far, and while that percentage is likely to drop some, it won't be huge.
Bettors continue to believe these numbers are too low while oddsmakers continue to believe their numbers are right on, so something has to give eventually.
Tonight could be that night as Game 5 is a huge swing game for both clubs and their stout defensive play is more than likely to show up. To continue to see these totals lined in this same range suggests that the oddsmakers see something many people don't here, and while it hasn't worked out in their favor as of yet, it's likely only a matter of time before it does.
The lone 'under' in this series came in Game 2 where we had a 96-82 San Antonio win at home when the Spurs were laying 10.5 points. That spread looks awfully similar to tonight's number and the fact that five of the eight scoring totals in each quarter (two per team per quarter) had 21 points or less scored in them shows that these two are plenty capable of playing a defensive brand of basketball that can be suffocating.
Neither team was particularly bad from the field that day – although Memphis did shoot 38% from the field, but the 44 made free throws also helped that total reach as high as it did. We see it year after year that the later you go in a NBA series, the more likely the refs decided to “put the whistles away” and let the players play, because the officials don't want to be the ones deciding a game.
Tonight's Game 5 isn't a be all, end all for either club, but taking a 3-2 series lead is a big deal and the refs aren't looking to become television stars either.
So with a huge majority of public bets on the high side of this number, and books unwilling to move of their initial range for each game of this series, I've got to believe that siding with the books tonight and going low is the better option.
Memphis may have found their scoring touch in Games 3 and 4, but they've failed to score more than 82 points here in San Antonio this series, and even the two regular season games played on the Spurs floor ended with 187 and 184 (which included an OT session) points.
Tonight's Game 5 should resemble Game 2 in terms of points, but with less free throws being called and subsequently made, I'm not sure we even seen 180 points tonight.
Best Bet: Memphis/San Antonio Under 187
NBA Playoff Report
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
Thunder at Rockets
Houston is quite fortunate to be up 3-1 on Oklahoma City in this series. The Thunder could actually be the team up, but they’ve failed to close out games while allowing the Rockets to steal wins in two of the last three games by 4 points each. My power ratings make Houston -7 in Game 5, so the current market line is accurate. James Harden (29.1 ppg) is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is listed as probable and is expected to play tonight.
Jazz at Clippers
Utah took advantage of a shorthanded Los Angeles team in Game 4 when they closed the game strong in the fourth quarter to win 105-98. The series is now tied at two games apiece as it heads back to Los Angeles for Game 5. The Clippers need to play fast to be at their best, but Utah has done a good job of controlling the pace in their two wins. Whichever team is able to dictate the pace will likely win this game tonight. My power ratings make Los Angeles -3 after adjusting for injuries, so the current market line is spot on.