Celtics at Nuggets: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets (-8.5, 203)
Most teams enjoyed a fairly quiet All-Star weekend, but the Boston Celtics managed to make news when center Kevin Garnett said he will not waive his no-trade clause with Thursday’s trade deadline fast approaching. As a result, Garnett is fully expected to accompany the Celtics on Tuesday when they visit the Denver Nuggets, who entered the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak.
Boston is 8-1 since losing point guard Rajon Rondo with a season-ending knee injury and stands a season-high four games above. 500. Despite its recent skid, Denver is fifth in the Western Conference standings and boasts an impressive 22-3 home record. The teams combined for one of the most memorable games of the season at TD Garden on Feb. 10, when Paul Pierce recorded a triple-double with 27 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists in the Celtics’ 118-114 triple overtime win.
ABOUT THE CELTICS (28-24, 21-28-3 ATS): In addition to losing Rondo, the Celtics have also been hit with season-ending injuries to rookie Jared Sullinger and veteran Leandro Barbosa over the past three weeks. The team has responded by focusing on its defense in recent weeks, including the Celtics’ 71-69 win over Chicago in the final game before the All-Star break. Boston forced 22 turnovers and held the Bulls to 36.5 percent shooting in the win. Forward Jeff Green has stepped up his play with Rondo out, and he's averaging 13.8 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.4 assists in the last nine games. Garnett should be rested after playing only six minutes in the All-Star game on Sunday.
ABOUT THE NUGGETS (33-21, 32-22-0 ATS): Denver, which has won three straight at home against the Celtics, appears content to stand pat at the trade deadline with one of the deepest rosters in the NBA. Forward Kenneth Faried was selected the MVP of the Rising Stars Challenge on Friday after scoring a game-high 40 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. Faried also competed Saturday in the dunk contest, where he scored a perfect score on his second dunk before falling to eventual winner Terrence Ross of Toronto. The second-year forward is averaging 12.3 points and 9.7 rebounds while starting all 54 games. Point guard Ty Lawson, averaging 15.8 points and 7.1 assists, had 29 points and nine rebounds against Boston two weeks ago.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
* Home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
* Celtics are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Denver.
* Over is 16-5 in Nuggets last 21 overall.
* Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Boston is beginning a five-game road trip and won’t return to the TD Center until March 1 against Golden State.
2. Andre Iguodala (neck) and Gallinari (sinus infection) each missed Denver’s final game before the All-Star break, but both are expected to return against Boston.
3. Denver is 241-81 (74.8 percent) at the Pepsi Center under coach George Karl.
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Antonio at Sacramento
Rather remarkable what the aging core of Spurs have done. Gregg Pop's troops are a league leading 42-12 (30-22-2 ATS) on the campaign and went into the All-Star break ridding a sparkling 14-1 (8-6-1 ATS) stretch defeating opponents by a margin of 10.1 points/game. Spurs oozing with confidence should feel pretty good about their chances when they visit Sacramento (19-35, 22-30-2 ATS) on Tuesday. Spurs have simply owned the Kings of late winning 15-of-16 (10-5-1 ATS) including nine straight playing in Sacramento (6-3 ATS). Kings dropping 10 of it's last 13 (5-8 ATS) allowing a whopping 107.5 PPG aren't about to throw a monkey wrench into a team so dialed in at both ends of the floor. Spurs on a 11-2 (10-3 ATS) road stretch scoring => 105 points, 12-1 (10-2-1 ATS) road streak vs a Pacific division opponents are worth a second look.
Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Even though the NBA playoffs are still two months away, you can argue that the 14 of the 16 playoff spots are locked up.
In the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee currently holds a 4½-game lead over Philadelphia for the eighth and final playoff spot. When you consider the Bucks already own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the 76ers, you might want to pencil in Milwaukee already.
The Western Conference should have a little more drama and that’s expected when you have the Los Angeles Lakers looking to make a move. The “Purple and Gold” trail the Rockets by 3½-games for the 8th seed in the West. Houston has already defeated Los Angeles in two of their three matchups this season. The final meeting takes place at the Staples Center on Apr. 17, which is the last regular season game for both teams.
We’re still going to get teams jockeying for playoff seeds but barring any key injuries, you can already forecast possible conference semifinal and championship matchups.
Sportsbook.ag still has Miami listed as the favorite (3/2) to win the NBA Finals and based on their numbers, Oklahoma City (9/2), the Los Angeles Clippers (7/1) and San Antonio (8/1) are the only legit contenders to unseat the defending champions.
In case you’re wondering, the Heat are 4-1 against those Western Conference clubs with a battle at San Antonio looming on Mar. 31.
Below is a quick handicap for tonight’s slate.
Toronto at Washington: The Raptors have won five of seven and four straight games since they acquired Rudy Gay from Memphis. Two of those wins came on the road, which included a 92-88 victory over New York on Feb. 13. Washington closed the first-half of the season with an 11-point (85-96) loss at Detroit. Prior to that setback, the Wizards had won four and covered four straight games. This will be the first meeting between the pair this season. Make a note that the home team has won nine in a row in this series.
Charlotte at Orlando: This contest has “Pass” written all over it. Charlotte has gone 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 while Orlando closed the first-half with a 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS record. This will be the third meeting of the season between the pair and for what it’s worth, the visitor has won and covered each of the first two affairs. The ‘over’ went 2-0 in those games.
Milwaukee at Brooklyn: Bettors have another tough game to gauge here. The Bucks have failed to cover in eight straight games (2-6 SU) yet they’ve been a solid investment on the road (14-11 ATS) this season. Brooklyn is a tad banged up but it did win and cover its last two games of the first-half and the wins came against quality opponents in Indiana (89-84) and Denver (119-108). Milwaukee has already defeated Brooklyn twice this season and these teams will conclude the series on Wednesday when they finish up a home-and-home at the Bradley Center.
Memphis at Detroit: You could play the emotional angle here as Tayshuan Prince will face his former team at The Palace. Since the Grizzlies acquired Prince and Austin Daye from Detroit, they’ve gone 4-2 with them in the lineup. The Pistons received Toronto point guard Jose Calderon as part of the three-way trade. With the Spanish product in the lineup, Detroit has gone 3-3 and if you watch the team, you can tell that the chemistry is off and it’s hard to see Calderon in the long-term picture. Total players could be scratching their heads here too. Memphis, who likes to grind, has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in its last 10. Meanwhile, Detroit’s fast-paced tempo hasn’t been flourishing lately, which has produced a 6-1 record to the ‘under’ in the last seven games. The Grizzlies have won and covered six straight games against the Pistons, which includes a 90-78 home win on Nov. 30 this season.
Chicago at New Orleans: The Bulls are listed as short road favorites (-2) and they could be in trouble here. The Hornets closed the first-half by winning and covering four of their last five games and all of the victories came by nine points or more. Even though New Orleans has played better, its home record (9-15) isn’t impressive at all. Meanwhile, Chicago has gone 15-10 on the road and it will be looking to avenge an 89-82 home loss to the Hornets on Nov. 3. Prior to this setback, the Bulls had won eight straight (6-2 ATS) against the Hornets. Chicago will meet Miami on Thursday in a nationally televised battle, which could set up the look-ahead angle.
Boston at Denver: Quick rematch here as the Nuggets look to avenge a 118-114 triple-overtime loss to the Celtics at TD Garden on Feb. 10. Boston kept forcing the extra sessions and eventually pulled away for the home win and miraculous cover as a two-point favorite thanks to Jason Terry’s meaningless layup as the game ended. Prior to this loss, Denver had won nine straight (8-1 ATS) games but it closed the first-half with three losses in a row. The Nuggets didn’t have Dainilo Gallinari or Andre Iguodala in the lineup the last two setbacks but both are expected to play Tuesday. At home, Denver has produced an eye opening 22-3 SU and 17-8 ATS mark. Boston has dealt with the injury bug too, in particular the loss of point guard Rajon Rondo. However, the team has rallied to an 8-1 record (7-2 ATS) without the All-Star. Including the aforementioned outcome between the two, the home team has now won and covered six consecutive games in this series.
Golden State at Utah: The Warriors were the biggest surprise of the first-half but they’ll start the second-half with a five-game losing streak intact. The defense has been awful during this stretch, along 118 points per game. Golden State beat Utah 94-83 in Salt Lake City on Dec. 26 as a 4½-point underdog. Despite that loss, the Jazz have been a great team to back at home (20-6 SU, 16-10 ATS). High total (203) for this game but bettors should be aware that the ‘under’ has cashed in nine of the last 10 encounters between these teams.
Phoenix at Portland: Similar to the Bobcats-Magic matchup above, this game could go either way. The Suns are 2-8 in their last 10 while the Trail Blazers are 3-7. Normally, I would fade Portland in its first game at home after the long road trip but the All-Star break has to be taken into play. If you base your bet on numbers, the Blazers are the look at home (17-8) and the Suns haven’t been good on the road (5-23). The home team has won six straight and eight of nine in this series.
San Antonio at Sacramento: It’s definitely tempting to back the Kings at home (14-12 SU) tonight, considering they’re rested and they start a five-game road trip after this matchup. However, it’s hard to bet against the team with the best record in the NBA. San Antonio has gone 42-12 and that includes a league-best 20-10 road record. Plus this is a team that has sat out starters often and most would believe that a couple regulars might sit here, especially with road games versus the Clippers and Warriors on deck. The best look in this matchup could be the total. The Kings have seen the ‘over’ go 17-8 (68%) at home this season and San Antonio has watched the ‘over’ go 17-12 in its road games.
NBA Point Spreads and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
After jumping out to an impressive 30-17 start, the Warriors dropped five straight before the All-Star break, failing to cover in any of those contests. They’ve been on the road a lot recently, losing six out of their last eight away from Golden State, and they begin the second half of the season in Utah, where they’re a 3-point underdog against the Jazz.
Warriors-Jazz is one of nine games on Tuesday’s NBA card as the league returns from its midseason break.
Golden State is in the midst of a very tough stretch – the aforementioned five losses have come against Oklahoma City, Memphis, Dallas and Houston twice.
The Warriors have owned the Jazz of late, however – at least from a betting perspective – covering their last four against them dating back to last season.
The most profitable way to wager on the Warriors this season has been to play their games OVER the total. Golden State is an NBA-best 33-18-1 to the OVER the season and 19-10 OVER on the road.
The last seven meetings between these clubs in Utah, however, have stayed UNDER the total.
Still, we’re leaning OVER tonight's total of 203.5. In addition to their strong OVER trends, the Warriors should be energized after the break and will control the tempo tonight.
Trends:
* The Raptors have covered their past five road games and six of their last seven meetings with the Wizards. The Wizards have covered nine of their last 10 home games, and have stayed UNDER the total in eight of their last 10 games overall. Washington is -3 tonight, with a total of 190.5.
* The Bobcats have covered only seven of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record, but have got the money in their last four visits to Orlando. The Magic have covered only three of their last 16 games. The Bobcats have stayed UNDER the total in their last four games, while the Magic have gone OVER in 10 of their last 14 home games. Orlando is a 5-point favorite, and the total is 197.
* The Bucks have failed to cover in their last eight games, but have covered their last seven games on the Nets' home floor. The Nets have covered only once in their last five home games. The Nets have stayed UNDER the total in seven of their last eight games against Eastern Conference teams. Brooklyn is -4.5, the total is 194.5.
* The Grizzlies have covered their past six meetings against the Pistons and have gone OVER the total in their last five games overall. The Pistons have covered only two of their last 10 games against Western Conference teams. Memphis lays 2.5 on the road tonight, and the total is 187.
* The Bulls have covered five of their last seven road games, while the Hornets are on a streak of covering four of their last five. The road team has covered the past six games in this series. Chicago is tonight's 1.5-point road favorite, and the total is 181.
* The Celtics have covered their last four games against Western Conference teams and seven of their last nine games overall, but they‘ve covered only once in their last eight visits to Denver. The Nuggets have covered their last four home games and nine of their last 12 overall. The Nuggets have gone OVER the total in 11 of their last 12 home games. Denver lays 8.5, the total is 202.5.
* The Warriors have not covered in their last five games and have also failed in their last six against teams with a winning record, but they have covered their last four meetings with the Jazz, including earlier this season in Utah. The Warriors have gone OVER the total in eight of their last nine road games. Utah is -3.5, with a total of 203.5.
* The Spurs have failed to cover their last four games against Pacific Division teams, but have covered in their past five visits to Sacramento. The Kings have gone OVER the total in their last four games. San Antonio lays 9 on the road tonight, with a total of 209.
* The Suns have failed to cover their past five games against Northwest Division teams. The Blazers have not covered in their last five games and have gone OVER the total in six of their last seven games. Portland is -6.5, the total is 195.5.
Injuries:
* Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (shoulder) is OUT indefinitely.
* Blazers guard Wesley Matthews (ankle) is questionable.
* Spurs guard Stephen Jackson (personal) is questionable.
* Kings guard Marcus Thornton (hand) is questionable.