NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, February 2

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Miami at Houston

The Houston Rockets (25-25, 21-29 ATS) will be looking to halt a three game skid when they host Miami Heat (27-21, 24-23-1 ATS) Tuesday night at the Toyota Center. As a team, the Rockets have trouble stopping teams from scoring. They rank 29th in scoring defense allowing 106.6 points/game and it's been worse the past three on the hardwood as they've given up a whopping 122.7.

Got to like Miami as +5.0 point underdog in tonight's match-up. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS as home chalk of -4.0 to -9.5 points, 5-13 ATS in non-conference games including a 109-89 beat-down in South Beach when they two met back in November. If that hasn't got you leaning Heat, consider Miami is 7-2 against the betting line this season scoring 105 or more points, a money-making 20-3-1 ATS the past twenty-four games netting 105 or more points.

Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Those following the Association last night saw the scoreboard operator put in overtime as 12 of the 18 teams in action scored 100-plus points and the remaining six had at least 92 points posted. Those offensive fireworks helped the ‘over’ go 7-2.

Favorites went 7-2 straight up and 4-5 against the spread last night and two of the games went to overtime. Utah (-5½) captured the overtime win and cover with a 105-96 victory over Chicago at home while Indiana (+5½) fell to Cleveland 111-106 but barely covered at most betting shops.

The largest underdog to cash was Denver (+4½, ML +175), who knocked off Toronto 112-93 at home. The Raptors had won 11 straight entering last night’s game, but eight of those wins came in Canada.

Tuesday’s card offers up five games and below is my quick handicap.

Boston (27-22 SU, 26-22-1 ATS) at New York (23-27 SU, 29-21 ATS)

Boston (-3) opened as a short road favorite over New York and it should be noted that after Cleveland and Toronto, the Celtics are the only other team in the Eastern Conference (13-12 SU, 14-11 ATS) to own a winning road mark. Both clubs enter this game off a loss on Sunday and neither put up a great defensive effort. Boston lost at Orlando 119-114 while New York was embarrassed at home to Golden State, 116-95.

Despite the loss to the Magic, the Celtics had won five straight (4-1 ATS) games. The offensive firepower for Boston has been on display over the last 12 games. During this span, Boston has averaged 112.6 points per game and that’s helped the ‘over’ produce an 8-4 record.

Unfortunately for New York, it isn’t the best defensive team (101.2 PPG) in the league but 18 of its 23 wins this season came when the club scored over 100 points. One of those victories occurred on Jan. 20 at home when it defeated the Celtics 120-114 as one-point underdogs.

The Knicks are a respectable 14-11 both SU and ATS at Madison Square Garden this season but that record is misleading. New York doesn’t have a bunch of quality wins and its 3-8 SU and 5-6 ATS when listed as a home ‘dog. Boston is 6-7 SU and 5-7-1 ATS as a road favorite this season.

The total on this game is hovering around 207 points and bettors should note that the Knicks enter this game on a 5-1 ‘under’ run.

Miami (27-21 SU, 24-23-1 ATS) at Houston (25-25 SU, 21-29 ATS)

NBATV will televise this game nationally at 8:05 p.m. ET and it’s not an easy game to handicap. The Heat have won a season-high four straight and more importantly, they’ve covered all four games too. I’m not sure if it’s a coincidence or not but Miami center Hassan Whiteside (hip) hasn’t played in any of the wins and he’s ‘doubtful’ for Tuesday.

While Miami has been rolling, the Rockets are mired in yet another slump. Houston has dropped three straight and they just can’t stop anybody plus it doesn’t help the cause when center Dwight Howard gets ejected in the each of the last two setbacks.

Washington ran past the Rockets on Saturday for a 123-122 win as four-point road underdog, which dropped Houston’s home mark to 15-12 SU and 11-16 ATS. To put things in perspective during last year’s run to the Western Conference Finals, Houston went 30-11 at home.

Miami has gone 12-6 SU and 10-7-1 ATS versus the West this season but that mark is boosted with a 9-1 home mark. Meanwhile, Houston has struggled to a 7-11 SU and 5-13 ATS mark against the East.

These teams met in South Florida on Nov. 1 and Miami earned a 20-point win (109-89) over Houston. In the lone meeting last season at the Toyota Center, the Rockets blasted the Heat 115-79 in wire-to-wire fashion. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight during this series.

The Heat have been the best ‘under’ bet (32-16) in the NBA this season while Houston is one of the better ‘over’ (28-20-2) teams in the Association. The total is listed at 204 and Miami has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 with numbers listed in the 200s this season.

Toronto (32-16 SU, 26-21-1 ATS) at Phoenix (14-35 SU, 18-31 ATS)

The Raptors saw their 11-game winning streak snapped last night in a 112-93 loss at Denver and the oddsmakers expect the club to rebound against a struggling Suns squad tonight. Most shops have Toronto listed as a nine-point road favorite against a Phoenix team that just fired its head coach Jeff Hornacek on Monday.

The Suns are 2-20 in their last 22 games and Sunday’s 91-78 loss to Dallas wasn’t surprising but the way they blew the cover (+9½) makes you feel for anybody that had a ticket on Phoenix. Earl Watson was named the interim coach and he’s probably the best point guard on a team that has lost Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight to injuries.

With nine of their next 10 games at home, I think you’ll be able to find some value on Phoenix in the upcoming weeks but I’d stay away tonight. I wouldn’t lean to the Raptors either because they’re 4-5 SU and 4-4-1 ATS this season when facing back-to-back situations while the ‘over’ is 6-3.

Also, while recent meetings between these teams can be tossed out the window due to the short-handed roster of the Suns but make a note that Toronto is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in its last five games against Phoenix.

Milwaukee (20-30 SU, 25-25 ATS) at Portland (23-26 SU, 26-23 ATS)

The schedule is one of the biggest factors in the NBA and taking advantage of long home stands are key. Portland is in the middle of a stretch that has them playing 12 of 14 in the Great Northwest and it’s started off with a 4-1 (3-2 ATS) record. Traveling to this venue isn’t easy for opponents and home/away numbers for Portland are better offensively (105-99) and defensively (101-103).

To be fair, the Trail Blazers (-7) haven’t played the best competition during this stretch but wins are wins and tonight’s game is also winnable against Milwaukee but I do think the number is a tad inflated. Portland has been favored by more than seven twice this season and it has gone 2-0 SU/ATS, both wins were against the hapless Lakers and Milwaukee is much better than Los Angeles.

The Bucks dropped a 111-104 decision last night at Sacramento and the defense fell apart in the fourth quarter, allowing 37 points. Milwaukee has struggled on zero days rest this season recently, dropping six of their last seven back-to-back spots. Overall, they are 5-7 SU and 8-4 ATS with four of the wins coming at home.

These clubs met in early December from Milwaukee and the Bucks nipped the Trail Blazers 90-88 as one-point underdogs. The ‘under’ (198) cashed easily and is on a 5-1 run in this head-to-head series.

The Bucks have gone 6-12 SU and 8-10-1 ATS versus the West this season while the Blazers are 5-11 SU and 7-9 ATS against the East.

Minnesota (14-35 SU, 21-27-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (9-41 SU, 21-28-1 ATS)

In 2016, Minnesota (2-14) and Los Angeles (3-14) are a combined 5-28 and those numbers alone would make me look in a different direction on Tuesday. The Timberwolves and Lakers will be meeting for third and final time this season and if this game is close to the first two outcomes, you’re looking a tightly contested shootout.

Minnesota beat Los Angeles 112-111 on opening night (Oct. 28) at the Staples Center before earning a 123-122 victory on Dec. 9 from the Target Center. Will we see another back-and-forth game? The total (202 ½) certainly doesn’t scream shootout but both Minnesota (103.4 PPG) and Los Angeles (106.2 PPG) are very weak suspect defensively.

Minnesota is listed as a short road favorite (-4) and its gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in that role this season. As a home underdog, Los Angeles is 4-16 SU and 9-11 ATS and the ‘under’ has gone 14-6 in those games.

Tuesday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

MIAMI HEAT (27-21) at HOUSTON ROCKETS (25-25)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Houston -5.0

Dwyane Wade and the Heat will be going for their fifth straight factory when the team faces the Rockets in Houston on Tuesday.

Miami has been playing extremely well and most recently defeated Atlanta 105-87 as a three-point home favorite. The Heat have won-and-covered in four straight contests and the team has been good on both ends of the floor, shooting 45% or better from the field in four straight games and holding opponents to less than 40% shooting in two of those games. The Heat will, however, need to show that they can get the job done consistently. They have been far too streaky this year and if they can’t right the ship then they likely won’t be playing with home court advantage in the postseason.

The Rockets, meanwhile, have been playing poorly over the past week. This team is coming off of a 123-122 home loss against the Wizards as a four-point favorite and has now lost three straight games. Houston will be hungry to come out and get a win in this one, but the team did lose 109-89 as a four-point road underdog versus Miami on Nov. 1. It hasn’t all been bad for the Rockets in this series, though. Houston is 3-2 both SU and ATS versus Miami over the past three seasons and that includes two win-and-covers at the Toyota Center. Both of those games in Houston went Under the total and four of the five games played between these teams in the past three seasons went Under as well.

One trend that is worth noting in this one is the fact that the Rockets are a miserable 1-8 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite this season. C Hassan Whiteside (Oblique) is listed as doubtful for Miami in this one.

Miami had been struggling in the month of January and SG Dwyane Wade (18.7 PPG, 4.8 APG, 4.1 RPG, 1.0 SPG) took it upon himself to get his team back on track. The Heat have rattled off four straight victories and Wade is averaging 24.0 PPG, 7.0 APG, 2.0 SPG and 1.8 BPG over the course of the winning streak. He is being aggressive going to the basket and that is allowing him to finish at the rim or kick the ball out to open shooters. It also helps that he has been locked in defensively, as he’ll need to do a good job of containing James Harden on Tuesday.

PF Chris Bosh (19.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG) will likely see some time at the center position with Whiteside out for Miami. Bosh has also been playing well for the Heat recently, averaging 21.8 PPG and 6.4 RPG over the past five contests. Bosh will need to knock down some outside shots for floor spacing purposes offensively, but he’ll also need to do his best to keep Dwight Howard off the glass on the defensive end.

PG Goran Dragic (12.2 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.0 SPG) could provide a major spark for Miami in this game. Dragic used to play for the Rockets, so he should be more than comfortable playing in this building. He will need to push the pace and get some easy buckets in transition for the Heat.

The Rockets have lost three straight games and will be playing like a desperate team when they host the Heat on Tuesday. One guy that they can count on to play well is SG James Harden (27.9 PPG, 7.0 APG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG). The superstar was on fire in a loss to Washington on Saturday, finishing with 40 points, 11 assists, seven rebounds and four steals in 37 minutes. Harden went 12-for-20 from the field and 6-for-9 from the outside in that game and is shooting 44.1% from three over the past five contests. If he can stay hot then it will be a huge boost for his team against a sizzling Heat squad.

C Dwight Howard (14.4 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG0 will also need to play well for Houston in this game. Howard had 20 points and seven boards in 29 minutes against the Wizards on Saturday, but he was ejected from that game for getting into it with Nene. Howard must keep his cool in this one, as the Rockets desperately need him. He is a force in the paint and opens up the floor for his teammates. He is also one of the best rim protectors in basketball.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (14-35) at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (9-41)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Minnesota -5, Total: 204.5

The Lakers will be looking to avoid an 11th consecutive loss when they host the Timberwolves on Tuesday.

Both the Timberwolves and the Lakers are struggling mightily entering Tuesday’s meeting. Minnesota is coming off of a 96-93 loss in Portland on Sunday and the team has now lost four straight games. The Timberwolves have been lousy defensively, allowing their opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field in three of the past four games and they will need to be a lot better moving forward.

The Lakers, meanwhile, have now lost 10 straight games and this team has been a disaster on both ends of the floor. Los Angeles has scored over 100 points in just one of the past 10 games and its opponents have scored over 100 points in all but one of those contests.

These two teams have met twice this season and the Timberwolves have won both meetings SU. They even won 112-111 as three-point underdogs at Staples Center on Oct. 28.

One trend favoring Minnesota in this one is the fact that the team is 10-2 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season. The Lakers, however, are 9-1 ATS after a game with five or less offensive rebounds over the past two seasons.

Both C Nikola Pekovic (Foot) and SG Kevin Martin (Wrist) are expected to miss this game for the Timberwolves and SG Kobe Bryant (Shoulder) is questionable for Los Angeles.

The Timberwolves have a ton of young talent, but they just have not been able to put it all together. They do have a chance to get back into the win column on Tuesday, though. This Lakers team is extremely beatable and has not had a match for C Karl-Anthony Towns (16.6 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 1.8 BPG) on the year. In two meetings with Los Angeles, Towns is averaging 20.0 PPG and 13.0 RPG on 58.6% shooting from the field. He has also been on fire recently, averaging 26.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG over the past two games. He should be able to dominate on Tuesday, especially considering he’ll get a bump in minutes with some of the Timberwolves’ big men out with injury.

One guy that will need to be much better for this Minnesota team is SF Andrew Wiggins (20.4 PPG). Wiggins has been a disaster over the past two games, averaging just 10.0 PPG on 5-for-29 shooting from the field. If Wiggins does not start playing better then the Timberwolves will be destined for another pick at the top of the draft, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. He should, however, get back on track against the Lakers.

The Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league on both ends of the floor, but they will need to dig deep and end their losing streak at Staples Center on Tuesday. One guy the Lakers will be riding in this game is PF Julius Randle (10.9 PPG, 9.7 RPG).

Randle has been playing some of the best basketball of his career these past few weeks, averaging 14.8 PPG and 10.6 RPG on 50.9% shooting from the field over the past five games. Randle has been aggressive going to the rim and will need to continue to take good shots the rest of the season.

SG Kobe Bryant (15.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.0 SPG) played very well in a loss to the Hornets on Sunday, finishing with 23 points, eight boards, three assists and two steals in 23 minutes of action. He would provide a major spark for the Lakers if he can suit up for the team on Tuesday.

One guy that must step it up on Tuesday is C Roy Hibbert (6.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG). Hibbert is averaging 10.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 1.5 BPG in two meetings with Minnesota this season. He’ll be asked to guard Towns for a large majority of this one and must and must hold his own if the Lakers are going to win.