NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, June 18

Spurs at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-7, 191)

Spurs lead best-of-seven series 3-2.

The San Antonio Spurs are one win away from their fifth NBA title and the Miami Heat need a series-saving victory when Game 6 of the NBA Finals is played in South Beach on Tuesday. San Antonio took a 3-2 lead with a 114-104 victory on Sunday behind a season-best game from Manu Ginobili and another superb performance from 3-point shooter Danny Green. Miami is vying to become the fourth team to rally from a 3-2 deficit with two homecourt victories.

The Heat watched the Dallas Mavericks celebrate on their home floor two seasons ago and would like to avoid seeing another such scene involving the Spurs. Miami won 27 consecutive games during the regular series but is finding the playoffs to be much tougher, having gone 5-6 in its last 11 games with no back-to-back victories since winning Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals against Indiana on May 22. Ginobili had 24 points and 10 assists in Game 5 and Green made five 3-pointers to set an NBA Finals record with 25. San Antonio knows there is more work to do. “Obviously, you want to finish in the first opportunity you get,” point guard Tony Parker said. “We understand that Miami is going to come out with a lot more energy, and they’re going to play better at home.”

ABOUT THE SPURS: Green is the clear-cut Finals MVP if San Antonio closes out the series in Game 6. The player previously cut by both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Spurs has made five or more 3-pointers in three different games while averaging 18 points. Superb ball movement by San Antonio has presented Green with numerous unguarded looks and he has answered by making 65.8 percent of his 3-point attempts. “My teammates have done a great job of finding me and getting me open,” Green said. “Luckily, it seems everything is going right for me.” Parker scored a game-high 26 points in Game 5 despite playing through a hamstring injury while power forward Tim Duncan had 17 points and 12 rebounds for his third double-double of the series.

ABOUT THE HEAT: Forward LeBron James is aware he will receive a lot of criticism if Miami falls short but he isn’t running from it on the eve of Game 6. James is averaging 21.6 points and 10.8 rebounds and has reached 20 points just twice in the series. “I have to come up big for sure in Game 6,” James said. “But I believe we all have to play at a high level in order to keep the series going. So me being one of the leaders of this team, I do put a lot of pressure on myself to force a Game 7 and I look forward to the challenge.” Guard Dwyane Wade has put together back-to-back stellar games of 32 and 25 points and veteran guard Ray Allen had his best game of the series with 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting in Game 5.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.
* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Heat’s last four home games.
* Under is 16-4-1 in Spurs’ last 21 road games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The three teams to rally from a 3-2 deficit with two consecutive home victories are the 1988 Los Angeles Lakers, the 1994 Houston Rockets and the 2010 Lakers.

2. San Antonio is shooting 44.2 percent from 3-point range in the series with G Gary Neal (12-for-24) joining Green in shooting superbly.

3. James is shooting 43.6 percent in the series, well below his regular-season mark of 56.5.

Game 6 - Spurs at Heat
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The roller-coaster known as the NBA Finals continues as the Spurs look to close out the Heat for the franchise's fifth championship. San Antonio shot lights out in Game 5 on Sunday night, as the scene shifts back to South Florida on Tuesday with both teams seeking some sort of consistency in this series.

For all the stars taking center-stage in the NBA Finals, former North Carolina standout Danny Green has been the biggest difference-maker (and three-point maker) for the Spurs. Green knocked down six shots from downtown, while lifting San Antonio to a 114-104 home triumph as one-point underdogs. Following a disappointing effort in the final half of Game 4, the Spurs' offense rebounded with a combined 74 points from Green, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. The former Sixth Man of the Year started for the first time in the series, scoring 24 points in Game 5, seven more than the previous three games combined.

The Heat's Big Three stepped up in Game 4 as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh combined for 85 points. However, the three stars put up just 66 points in Game 5, including just 26 in the second half. Miami cut a 17-point first half deficit to nine by halftime, while getting within one point with three minutes left in three quarters. However, a 19-1 run by the Spurs cooled off the Heat rally, putting Miami on the brink of elimination for the fifth time since James, Wade, and Bosh joined forces in 2011.

The Spurs are sitting in an advantageous spot on Tuesday, as teams in the NBA Finals with the first opportunity to close a series are 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven seasons. The two losses occurred in the series between the Lakers and Celtics in 2008 and 2010, with each team avoiding elimination at home. Gregg Popovich's team looks to finish off another series on the road this postseason after eliminating the Lakers, Warriors, and Grizzlies away from Texas.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David breaks it down from a totals standpoint, "After watching the 'under' cash in the first two games, the 'over' has connected in the last three games of this series thanks to some great shooting, especially in Game 5. The two teams combined for 20 bombs from 3-point land and 40 made free throws. Those are two of the biggest x-factors when playing totals and they both exceeded expectations on Sunday."

David points out that the number has moved up following the three 'overs' in San Antonio, "As expected, the oddsmakers bumped up the number on Game 6 to 190 and that's already moved up to 190½. Off a loss in the playoffs, Miami has been great offensively. In this series, they've posted 103 and 109 after the first two setbacks. The Heat's team total is hovering around 99½ points and based on the back-and-forth trend, a lean to the 'over' would be justified."

The important number many people will point to is the 6-0 SU/ATS record by the Heat in the postseason off a loss. Miami won those games by an average of 20.6 points per game, including victories by 19 and 16 points against San Antonio off a defeat. David brings up the popular Zig-Zag theory, which sides with Miami, in Game 6, "If the trend holds true, then we'll see Miami post another double-digit victory in Game 6. It's certainly hard to ignore the pattern but in this business, all good things eventually come to an end. Grabbing points with San Antonio, who is 7-2 on the road in the playoffs, is the smart play in this spot, especially against a Heat team that is 5-6 ATS at home in the postseason."

Even though the Heat has been terrific off a loss recently, the possibility of a decisive Game 7 is a rare occurrence in the Finals according to David, "I think it's pretty funny that the conspiracy theorists are expecting NBA commissioner David Stern to create a Game 7, especially in his last NBA Finals go 'round. What bettors need to realize is that Game 7's don't happen often, especially in the last round. In the last 20 seasons, we only had three Game 7's in the NBA Finals. If you are expecting a decisive battle on Thursday, then you should take the Heat on the adjusted series price (-130). If they win Tuesday, you can get out of your bet on Thursday or even try to middle the Spurs with the points."

Miami opened as a seven-point favorite, while several books have bumped the Heat to 7½. The game tips off at 9:00 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ABC.

2013 NBA Playoffs

Heat's spread results in last 11 games are LWLWLWLWLWL; Miami is now 12-0 vs spread in game following last 12 losses. James took nine FTs in Game 5, after taking total of 10 in first four games, and Wade has 57 points in last two games, but Heat bench was combined -43 Sunday, while deeper Spurs' subs were +22 and that was with Ginobili starting for first time this season. San Antonio starters shot 64%; Spurs are first Finals team in four years to shoot 60%+ for a game. If you look at first 2:00 of all five games, Spurs have 27-12 edge, so Popovich's adjustments have been better. Question is, can San Antonio seal the deal on road?

Armadillosports.com

Heat look to stay alive
By Sportsbook.ag

SAN ANTONIO SPURS at MIAMI HEAT

The Spurs try to wrap up their fifth NBA Championship since 1999 when they visit the Heat in Tuesday's Game 6.

After a quiet postseason, San Antonio veteran SG Manu Ginobili finally showed up on Sunday, pouring in 24 points and 10 assists with a game-best +19 rating to help lead his team to the 114-104 victory. The Spurs now lead the series 3-2 with the final two games taking place in Miami. San Antonio shot a blistering 60% from the floor and 41% from three-point range (9-of-22), with SG Danny Green knocking down six threes, giving him an NBA Finals record 25 made three-pointers in the series. The Heat actually shot better from behind the arc (48%, 11-of-23) than they did on their two-point shots (41%, 26-for-63) during Game 5. The Spurs held a 50-40 advantage for points in the paint, but rebounding was nearly even (36-34 San Antonio). These teams have now alternated wins and losses in all five games of the series, and the Heat have alternated wins and losses now for 12 straight contests. But they have not lost two in a row since Jan. 10, and are 19-3 SU (16-6 ATS, 73%) following an SU loss this season. Miami is 45-7 SU at home (87%), but just 27-25 ATS, while San Antonio is 30-20 SU and 27-23 ATS (54%) on the road this season, including 7-2 (SU and ATS) in playoff away games. The Heat have been the much better wager with just one day of rest though at 36-28 ATS (56%), while the Spurs are just 29-31 ATS (48%) with one off-day in between games.

The Spurs are now 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS (68%) in the postseason, outscoring opponents by 8.3 PPG, and outshooting them 47% FG to 43% FG over these 19 contests. But after committing just four turnovers in the Game 1 win, the club has been much more sloppy with the basketball, producing 68 miscues (17.0 TOPG). But the high number of assists (103) to made field goals (183) in the series shows that this is still an unselfish basketball team willing to pass for the best possible shot. Defensively, San Antonio has allowed 92.7 PPG on 43% FG (36% threes) in the postseason, but has not been able to stop Miami at times during the NBA Finals, allowing just 96.2 PPG, but on an efficient 46% FG and 42.3% threes. The Spurs have produced just 5.8 SPG in the NBA Finals, but also have a respectable 5.0 BPG. Rebounding hasn't been a huge factor in this series, as San Antonio has 205 boards (50 offensive) over the five games, while the Heat have 193 rebounds (46 offensive). But the best big man in the series has clearly been PF Tim Duncan (15.6 PPG, 11.2 RPG in series) who has recovered from a horrible Game 2 (nine points on 3-of-13 FG) with 16.3 PPG on 58% FG and 10.3 RPG in the past three games. In his NBA Finals career, Duncan has a 19-8 record with 21.4 PPG on 47% FG, 13.8 RPG, 3.0 APG and 2.8 BPG. PG Tony Parker (16.2 PPG, 6.6 APG in series) had his best offensive game of the series in Game 5 with 26 points on 10-of-14 FG and 6-of-8 threes. And since committing five turnovers in the Game 2 loss, Parker has dished out 22 assists with just eight turnovers (2.8 Ast/TO ratio) in the past three contests. SG Manu Ginobili (10.8 PPG, 4.4 APG in series) had a paltry 7.5 PPG on 34.5% FG in the first four games of the series, but he erupted on Sunday with 24 points on 8-of-14 FG, while adding a game-high 10 assists. The 24 points were the most he's scored since last year's Western Conference Finals when he poured in 34 points in a loss to Oklahoma City, also in Game 5.

Speaking of hot shooting, SG Danny Green (18.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG in series) continues to sizzle during the NBA Finals, knocking down 25-of-38 threes (66%), including 6-of-10 from behind the arc on Sunday. His 25 made three-pointers this series shattered the previous NBA Finals record of 22, and he still has at least one more game to play. In the two contests in Miami, Green made 9-of-14 threes. SF Kawhi Leonard (12.2 PPG, 10.2 RPG in series) has been consistently good on both ends of the floor in the NBA Finals, finishing with a series-high 16 points while also grabbing eight boards in Game 5. Although he's made a hefty 17-of-28 FG (61%) at home during the NBA Finals, Leonard connected on only 7-of-21 FG (33%) in the two games in Miami. SG Gary Neal (11.2 PPG in series) had also been on fire in the first two AT&T Center games in this series with 18.5 PPG on 13-of-24 FG (54%), but was a non-factor on Sunday with just two points on 1-of-4 shooting in 21 minutes. But he did help the team by playing strong enough defense to post a +17 rating.

Miami is 14-7 SU and 11-10 ATS (52%) this postseason, and the offense is finally starting to gel. After failing to reach 100 points in five straight games, the Heat have surpassed the century mark in three of the past four contests, averaging 98.3 PPG on 47% FG and 46% threes during these four games. They continue to protect the basketball with great care, piling up 22.2 APG and just 11.0 TOPG (2.02 Ast/TO ratio) in the NBA Finals. After getting lit up for 114 points in Game 5, Miami has now allowed 99.2 PPG on 47% FG (44% threes) to San Antonio this series. That's a big drop-off from the first three playoff series when Heat opponents scored just 87.6 PPG on 43% FG (33% threes). The three-point shot is really burning Miami, as San Antonio has made an insane 43-of-90 threes (48%) over the past four games. SF LeBron James (21.6 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 6.8 APG in series) continues to be the team's best, and most consistent player in the postseason. In Game 5, he scored 25 points (8-of-22 FG) with eight assists and six boards. And in his past six home games, James is averaging a hefty 27.2 PPG (51% FG), 10.0 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.7 SPG and 1.5 BPG.

SG Dwyane Wade (20.0 PPG, 5.4 APG in series) has posted back-to-back outstanding games, averaging 28.5 PPG on 51% FG with 7.0 APG, 5.0 RPG and 3.5 SPG. In his brilliant NBA Finals career spanning 22 games, Wade is averaging a lofty 26.4 PPG (48% FG), 6.0 RPG and 4.9 APG. PF Chris Bosh (14.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.0 SPG in series) has been pretty consistent in the NBA Finals with three double-doubles in the five games. And after his pedestrian 12.7 PPG on 44% FG in the first three contests, Bosh has averaged 18.0 PPG on 52% FG over the past two games. Although he pulled down just six rebounds on Sunday, five of those came on the offensive glass. PG Mario Chalmers (8.0 PPG in series) has scored a woeful 4.3 PPG on 21% FG (4-of-19) in the three San Antonio games, but he's happy to return home where he began the series with 13.5 PPG on 41% FG in Games 1 and 2. SG Ray Allen (13.0 PPG in series) has made up for Chalmers' poor shooting, as he's been on fire in the NBA Finals, making 22-of-34 shots (65%) and 11-of-17 threes (65%). He netted a series-high 21 points (7-of-10 FG, 4-of-4 threes) in Game 5. Although SG Mike Miller (5.8 PPG in series) has missed only three shots the entire series (10-of-13 FG, 9-of-12 threes), he's failed to get open recently. In the past two games -- both starts -- Miller is 0-for-1 in each contest.

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat

Sparked by Manu Ginobili's 24 points, 10 assists and the team's 60% shooting effort the Spurs' Big Three, not Miami's 'Three Amigos' are one victory away from ruling the NBA. With these Finals all about zig-zag, where the team that lost the previous game comes back with a win and cover in their next contest it's safe to say Miami won't “lay down”. Heat an amazing 12-0 SU/ATS following a loss the previous game including 6-0 SU/ATS during these playoffs certainly have history on their side to force a game seven. However, can't dismiss the boys from Alamo City. If there was a team that builds off a powerful performance it's Ye Ol' Spurs. The Spurs a profitable 7-2 SU/ATS on the road during post season have been great bets this season after scoring =>110 points (10-3 ATS) and even better bets following a game in which they shot => 55% as a team posting a 16-1 (14-3 ATS) mark including 9-1 SU/ATS on the road.