NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, March 31

Game of the Day: Warriors at Clippers
By Covers.com

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (+1, 214)

The Golden State Warriors have accomplished nearly everything they want in the regular season and can spend the last two weeks resting up for the playoffs. The Los Angeles Clippers, who host the Warriors on Tuesday, are still fighting for positioning in the Western Conference and are looking like a legitimate championship contender of late. The Clippers (seven straight) and Golden State (nine in a row) enter with the two longest active winning streaks in the NBA.

Los Angeles finished up a three-game road trip with a dominating performance in Boston on Sunday and is aiming for the No. 2 spot in the West. The Warriors set a franchise record with their 60th win on Saturday at Milwaukee and locked up the top spot in the West while putting a big gap between themselves and the Atlanta Hawks for the top record in the NBA. “It’s been a special year, obviously,” Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. “The guys have been fantastic all season long, just being committed to each other and the work. It’s been so much fun, and it’s great to rack up these milestones as we go.”

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the Clips as 1-point underdogs, which is where it's currently sitting.

INJURY REPORT: GS - Green (Ques). LA - Griffin (Prob), Crawford (Early April).

POWER RANKINGS: Warriors (-15.7) + Clippers (-10.6) + Homecourt (-3) = Clippers +2.1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "This is a matchup of two surging Western Conference powers in a possible playoff preview. The best road team in the NBA, the Warriors, are looking to snap a seven game series losing skid by the visiting team. With the Clippers engaged in a fierce battle with Memphis, Portland and San Antonio for the 4th playoff spot - and home court advantage - expect an even bigger effort from them Tuesday." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (60-13): Golden State started resting players by sitting Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala on Saturday, and Kerr will likely find extra rest for Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and especially Andrew Bogut over the last two weeks. Curry has been on fire of late and is averaging 30 points while going 24-of-38 from 3-point range over his last four games, burying at least five 3-pointers in each of those contests. “This is a big accomplishment,” Curry told reporters after Saturday’s win. “It’s a testament to how focused we’ve been over the course of the season. As of late, we’ve had a big lead in the standings, but we’ve understood that there are bigger goals in mind.”

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (49-25): Los Angeles’ recent surge has coincided with Blake Griffin’s return from elbow surgery, which solidified the starting lineup and turned the offense back into a powerhouse. “We’re passing up good shots for great shots,” point guard Chris Paul told reporters. “Obviously with Blake back, it makes us that much more dangerous. He’s one of the best passers on the team and then when he gets to scoring, you just have to pick your poison.” The threat of Griffin’s scoring in the frontcourt is opening things up for the guards, and Paul and J.J. Redick combined for 48 points in Boston on Sunday.

TRENDS:

*Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
*Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 overall.
*Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
www.sportspic.com

Golden State at Los Angeles

Tuesday night’s best matchup in the NBA looks to be the Golden State Warriors tops in the Association at 60-13 with a 44-28-1 mark against the betting line squaring off against L.A. Clippers sitting at 49-25 on the campaign, 34-40 against the number. Warriors sporting the top ranked offense netting 109.8 PPG behind a league best 47.8% from the field, 39.7% from long range have won nine straight contest treating backers with an 8-1 mark at the betting window. Clippers the leagues second best at putting the ball in the basket drop 106.6 PPG on 47.3% shooting and have won seven in a row cashing five tickets (5-2 ATS). Golden State has taken 2 of 3 matchups this season (1-2 ATS) with the lone loss coming at this venue giving Warriors a 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS skid in Clips back yards since last years Conf Quarterfinals. Sportsbooks have Clippers -2.5 point chalk with the total at 215. When handicapping this contest a few trends to keep in mind. Warriors are 15-8 ATS vs a team averaging 102 or more points/game. Clippers enter 10-15 ATS facing a team averaging 102 or more points. Warriors 10-4 'Under' last 14 on the road. Clippers 16-8-1 'Under' vs a team with a .600 or better record. The series 5-1 'Under' last six meetings with a total => 215.

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hawks at Pistons

Atlanta is playing out the string until the playoffs begin as the Hawks have locked up the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Mike Budenholtzer’s club is coming off a 101-88 home victory over the Bucks last night as nine-point favorites, as the Hawks will look to rest their starters on the second end of a back-to-back. Four of five Atlanta starters scored in double-figures, while point guard Jeff Teague returned from a two-game absence with an ankle injury and put up eight points on 2-of-8 shooting. Even though the Hawks will play with a short deck, Atlanta owns a 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS record with no rest this season.

The Pistons had their four-game winning streak snapped in Sunday’s 109-102 setback at Miami as two-point underdogs. Detroit topped the 102-point mark for the fifth straight game, as Stan Van Gundy’s squad cashed the ‘over’ each time during this stretch. Both Andre Drummond (32) and Reggie Jackson (31) each racked up their season high in points at Miami, while guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope struggled for the second straight contest with nine points on 4-of-15 shooting. The Pistons have covered seven of their last 10 games, while winning each of their past three contests at the Palace of Auburn Hills, all as an underdog.

Pacers at Nets

This is actually the game with the most impact on the postseason of the four Tuesday night contests, as Indiana and Brooklyn are fighting it out with Boston for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. Following Boston’s blowout of Charlotte on Monday, the Celtics pulled percentage points ahead of the Nets, while the Pacers are a half-game behind both Boston and Brooklyn with eight games remaining.

The Pacers and Nets have split a pair of meetings this season with the road team winning each time, while these clubs are hooking up for the final time, meaning Tuesday’s matchup is huge for tiebreaker implications. Brooklyn knocked off Indiana at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 21 as 8 ½-point underdogs, 123-111, as the Nets shot a scorching 61% from the floor. When these teams met in late December at Barclays Center, the Pacers routed the Nets, 110-85, as Indiana knocked down over 50% of its shots from the floor in both matchups.

Indiana won 12 of 15 games from the start of February through mid-March, but Frank Vogel’s club has dropped seven of nine contests to fall to 10th place in the East. However, the Pacers grabbed a 104-99 victory over the Mavericks on Sunday to cash as two-point favorites to snap a four-game home skid. The Nets have turned things around since a five-game slump earlier this month, winning seven of their last nine games, while trying to finish off a perfect 3-0 homestand. Since late December, Brooklyn has dropped seven of its past 10 games against Eastern Conference opponents at home, which includes the 25-point setback to Indiana.

Spurs at Heat

The rematch of the past two NBA Finals takes place at the American Airlines Arena in South Florida, but these rivals won’t be facing off for the championship trophy for a third straight season. San Antonio may be back in the Finals again, as Gregg Popovich’s team has won six of seven games to creep within three games of the Grizzlies for the top spot in the Southwest Division. Miami likely won’t be heading back as the Heat will probably get knocked out in the first round of the playoffs following four straight Eastern Conference titles.

San Antonio took care of Miami in its previous meeting at the AT&T Center in early February, 98-85 to barely cover as 12½-point favorites. Both Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside were sidelined due to injury in that defeat, as the Heat have lost six of the past seven meetings with the Spurs. Whiteside is expected back in the lineup for Miami tonight after missing the last three games with a hand injury. Miami struggled at home for the first few months of the season, but Erik Spoelstra’s club has heated up of late at the AAA by winning eight of the past nine games on their home court.

Warriors at Clippers

Golden State became the first team to reach 60 wins this season following Saturday’s 13-point victory at Milwaukee. The Warriors wrap up a four-game road trip back in California, traveling to Staples Center for the final regular season meeting with the rival Clippers, as the home team has captured the first three matchups this season. Golden State has struggled in Los Angeles, dropping four straight visits, including a 100-86 setback on Christmas night as two-point underdogs.

The best the Clippers can settle for in the Pacific Division is second place, but Doc Rivers’ team is catching fire at the right time by winning seven straight games. Los Angeles finished up a perfect 3-0 road trip by routing the Knicks, 76ers, and Celtics by double-digits each, while scoring at least 107 points in the past six wins. This isn’t the easiest scheduling spot, as the Clippers head back on the highway tomorrow for two games, starting in Portland on Wednesday then to Denver on Saturday before facing the Lakers in a “road” contest at Staples Center on Sunday. The Clips have struggled to cover numbers of late at home, posting a 2-5 ATS record the last seven games at Staples.

NBA Western Conference Betting Road Map
By Steve Merril
Covers.com

Spread Watch

Phoenix is still mathematically alive for the playoffs, but in reality, the Suns' season will likely come to an end this week. Phoenix has eight remaining games, and after blowing a 20-point lead at home in a huge game against Oklahoma City, the Suns will now be playing out the string.

Phoenix goes into Monday night's game in Portland on a 3-game losing streak, and they play at Golden State on Thursday night. The Suns will likely be on a 5-game losing streak after that game, and if that's the case, Phoenix is simply a bet-against team for the remainder of the season.

Total Watch

The Los Angeles Clippers have played fantastic basketball in the month of March, and that is especially true of their offense. The Clippers have scored 107 points or more in six consecutive games while going 5-1 to the Over.

Their scoring ways are likely to continue this week as they play four games against fast-paced Western Conference teams that all have good offenses. The Warriors, Blazers, Nuggets and Lakers are all willing to run with the Clippers, so expect more high-scoring games from Los Angeles this week.

Injury impact

The Houston Rockets have been besieged with injuries this season, and in fact, they rank third in total games missed by players due to injury.

Houston's latest causality was starting guard Patrick Beverley who tore a ligament in his wrist. He elected to have surgery now, and that means he will miss the remainder of the season. Houston will miss Beverley's defense:

"He's the key to our ability to guard a lot of these very good point guards in the West," said Houston GM Daryl Morey.

Playbook

Portland is in pursuit of locking up the Northwest Division and the #4 seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Once the Blazers do that, their plan is to get their starters as much rest as possible before the playoffs start.

Portland plays a big home game against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night; they are the current 5th seed. If the Blazers win that game and wrap everything up, be careful backing the Blazers going forward because they will likely be playing their reserves heavy minutes.

NBA Eastern Conference Betting Road Map
By Sean Murphy
Covers.com

The playoff picture hasn't gotten any clearer in the Eastern Conference, with no fewer than four teams battling it out for the eighth and final playoff spot. Things are more settled at the top, where the Hawks own an eight-game edge over the second place Cavs.

Here's a look at four angles to consider over the next seven days.

Spread watch

The Boston Celtics are reeling at the absolute worst time, losers of five of their last seven games and winless ATS over their last three contests.

There is reason to believe they can turn things around this week, however. Boston will sandwich a pair of manageable road games around back-to-back contests at TD Garden. All four games are winnable, coming against the Hornets, Pacers, Bucks and Raptors. I expect to see the C's go 3-1 ATS at worst.

Note that Boston remains 10 games over .500 from an ATS perspective this season. This isn't the time to jump ship in my opinion.

Total watch

The 'under' has been a solid bet in games involving the Milwaukee Bucks but not so much lately.

Milwaukee has seen four of its last six games go 'over' the total but that's a short-term trend that will hold little weight this week. The Bucks have a big week ahead, with four games on tap against Eastern Conference opponents. It starts on Monday in Atlanta as Milwaukee aims to respond following a poor defensive showing against the sharp-shooting Warriors on Saturday night.

With major playoff implications, I expect to see the Bucks tighten things up considerably. Take a good look at the 'under' when they take the floor this week.

Injury impact

Sunday's narrow win over the lowly Philadelphia 76ers may have been a costly one for the Cleveland Cavaliers as they lost both Kevin Love and Iman Shumpert to injuries. The extent of those injuries is not known, so for now they're both listed as day-to-day.

Perhaps it's a good thing that the Cavs don't play again until Thursday when they host the Miami Heat. Needless to say, these injuries are worth paying attention to as we've already seen Cleveland cool off slightly, going just 3-4 ATS over its last seven games following an extended hot streak against the number.

After Thursday's game against the Heat, the Cavs will enjoy another couple of days off before hosting the Chicago Bulls on Sunday.

Playbook

At this time last week the Indiana Pacers biggest concern was a sagging offense that had played a major role in a five-game losing streak that ultimately would reach six before it was snapped last Wednesday against Washington.

We've certainly seen the Pacers step up their game offensively, however, scoring 100 points or more in five straight games. They've managed to win two of their last three contests, so the turnaround at that end of the floor has paid dividends.

Expect to see the Pacers continue to push the pace as they face four beatable Eastern Conference foes this week. Don't be surprised if their run of five consecutive 'overs' continues and they may be worth a shot against the number as well.

Tuesday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (47-26) at MIAMI HEAT (34-39)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: San Antonio -6.5, Total: 196

In a rematch of last season’s NBA Finals, a scorching hot San Antonio Spurs team travels to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat.

The Spurs are doing what they do best, turning it on when it is most needed, and they come into this contest as victors in 13 of their past 16 games SU (12-4 ATS). In that time they have defeated opponents by an average of 18.0 PPG and shot better than 50% or better from the field eight times. They’ve won each of the last three times out and most recently took down the Grizzlies at home by a score of 103-89 as 8-point favorites. San Antonio poured in 42-of-83 shots (50.6% FG) and committed a mere eight turnovers in yet another impressive victory.

Meanwhile, the Heat sit near the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff race as they’ve gone a solid 5-3 SU and ATS since Mar. 16. They won three games during that stretch when they were considered the underdog and have won their past five contests when playing in front of their faithful fans in Miami. Detroit was their latest victims when it came into town on Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog and lost a 109-102 game. The Heat outrebounded their opponent 46-37 in the win as they made 47.6% of their shots and were tremendous from the charity stripe (24-of-29).

While the Spurs have been impressive this season, they are only 18-18 SU (14-21-1 ATS) when playing as the road team as Miami is 18-18 SU as well (16-19-1 ATS) when holding home court advantage. The first game of this season series went to San Antonio at home as 12.5-point favorites when they just barely covered the spread in a 98-85 win. The Spurs hit 40-of-83 shots (48% FG) in the victory as each team turned over the rock 16 times.

These teams have obviously seen each other many more times than most East and West Coast crews with the meeting in the Finals where San Antonio won in five games and they are 9-8 SU (11-6 ATS) against the Heat in the past three seasons. Some trends to watch in this one include that the Spurs are a perfect 9-0 ATS after a game committing eight or less turnovers this season as Miami is 15-9 ATS (63%) when playing six or more games in 10 days on the year.

The injury report has nobody missing for San Antonio and the Heat are dealing with a plethora of injuries as SF Luol Deng (Knee), PG Shabazz Napier (Knee), C Chris Andersen (Calf) and PF Michael Beasley (Elbow) are listed as questionable while C Hassan Whiteside (Hand), PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) and PF Josh McRoberts (Knee) are out.

The Spurs have continued to be one of the most patient and effective offenses in the league as they are scoring 102.7 PPG (9th in league) as they make 46.3% of their shots (4th in league). They have also been quite impressive on the defensive side of things, allowing opponents to score 97.4 PPG (6th in league) on 44.4% shooting (12th in league).

SF Kawhi Leonard (16.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.2 SPG) has been on a tear in the month of March and is coming off a big-time performance (25 points, 10 rebounds) on 11-of-17 shooting in the win over Memphis on Sunday. He was also solid when he last met with the Heat, scoring 24 points with four rebounds, four assists and three steals.

PF Tony Parker (14.9 PPG, 4.9 APG) comes into this one behind a nice three-game stretch (16.7 PPG, 5.3 APG, 4.3 RPG) and did well against Miami this season with 21 points and four assists.

PF Tim Duncan (13.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.9 BPG) has slowed down as the season moves along and has just 10.4 PPG with 7.4 RPG over the past five contests. He was an efficient 5-for-8 with 10 points and 12 rebounds in the win over the Heat back in February.

Miami plays at a very slow pace and have put up just 94.7 PPG (3rd-worst in league) on the year behind 45.7% shooting (10th in league). The team’s slow pace also keeps the opposition at bay with scoring as opponents net 96.8 PPG (3rd in league) on average behind 45.5% of their shots dropping (10th-worst in league).

SG Dwyane Wade (21.8 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.3 SPG) is coming off one of his best showings of the year as he dropped 40 points to go along with six rebounds and four assists against the Pistons. He was able to see this Spurs team five times in the Finals last year, going for 15.2 PPG (44% FG), 3.8 RPG and 1.6 SPG.

SG Goran Dragic (16.2 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.1 SPG) has really struggled in his last two times out, making a meager 7-of-21 shots (33% FG) with 8.0 PPG and 4.0 APG. He saw this opponent twice when he was a member of the Suns and scored 13.5 PPG with 2.5 APG.

PF Udonis Haslem (4.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG) has gotten plenty of run (33.0 MPG) over the past three games as the team deals with a ton of injuries and has gone for 12.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG and 1.3 SPG over that time. He was on the court for just four minutes when he last saw San Antonio, getting just two points on 1-of-3 shooting.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (60-13) at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (49-25)

Sportsbook.ag Line and Total: Los Angeles -2.0, Total: 214.0

Two of the hottest teams in the league clash when the Warriors head to Los Angeles and face the Clippers Tuesday.

The Warriors faced the Bucks in Milwaukee on Saturday and won 108-95 as 5-point road favorites. Golden State has now won nine straight games and 14 of its past 15 SU. The team has covered in 10 of those victories and it has played excellent on both ends of the floor, scoring over 100 points in 14 of those 15 games and allow over 100 points in just three of them. The Clippers are hot themselves though, defeating the Celtics 119-106 as 6-point favorites in Boston for their seventh straight victory SU.

Los Angeles had covered in five of those games and has been on a tear offensively, averaging 114.2 PPG over the past six contests. These teams have met three times this season and the Warriors are 2-1 SU and 1-1-1 ATS in those contests. The home team has won SU in all of the meetings and the Clippers are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS when hosting the Warriors over the past three seasons.

Overall, however, Golden State is 10-8 SU and 10-7 ATS when facing Los Angeles in that time. The Warriors are 9-1 ATS when playing with two days rest this season and are up against a Clippers team that is a lousy 4-12 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more this season.

PF Draymond Green (Shin) is questionable for Golden State in this game and PF Blake Griffin (Elbow) is questionable for Los Angeles, which is already without SG Jamal Crawford (Calf) indefinitely.

The Warriors have been elite on both sides of the ball this season, putting up 109.8 PPG (1st in NBA) and allowing just 98.9 PPG (14th in NBA).

PG Stephen Curry (23.7 PPG, 7.9 APG,4.3 RPG, 2.1 SPG) has been scorching hot lately, averaging 28.8 PPG and 7.0 APG on 55% shooting from the field and 61% shooting from three over the past five games. Curry will have his work cut out for him going against Chris Paul Tuesday and he’ll need to be at his best for his team to win.

SG Klay Thompson (21.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.1 SPG) has found his game after injuring his ankle, averaging 24.5 PPG over the past two games. Thompson is 9-for-17 from the outside in those contests and will need to exploit his mismatch against a much smaller J.J. Redick Tuesday. He is a very capable scorer in the post and will have a number of opportunities to shoot over the Clippers guard.

PF Draymond Green ( 11.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.6 SPG, 1.3 BPG) is questionable for this game and he’d be a big loss for Golden State, as he’s averaging 19.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.3 BPG and 1.3 SPG in three games against the Clips this season.

If he is unable to go then PFs David Lee (8.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Marreese Speights (10.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG) will need to step it up. The two combined for 24 points and 11 rebounds in the win over Milwaukee and must do more of the same if they are forced to play extended minutes opposite of Blake Griffin.

If there’s one team that can keep up with the Warriors’ scoring then it’s the Clippers. Los Angeles is averaging 106.6 PPG (2nd in NBA) this season and they have PG Chris Paul (18.8 PPG, 10.1 APG, 4.6 RPG, 1.9 SPG), who will not back down from the challenge of going at Steph Curry. In three games against the team this season, Paul is averaging 17.0 PPG, 9.0 APG, 4.7 RPG and 3.0 SPG. He’s been on a tear as of late though, averaging 22.0 PPG and 11.8 APG over the past five contests. Paul will need to be on his game in this one because he’ll need to outplay Curry in order to pick up a huge home victory.

PF Blake Griffin (21.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 5.1 APG) was experiencing some soreness in his recently injured elbow on Sunday. He is questionable for this game and would be a big loss for this team. Griffin is a guy that teams have to alter their gameplans for and the Clippers are a much worse team without him.

C DeAndre Jordan (11.4 PPG, 14.8 RPG, 2.2 BPG) will need to be ready to play at a high level if Griffin does not play. Jordan has been a monster recently, averaging 13.6 PPG, 16.6 RPG and 2.6 BPG on an absurd 74.4% shooting over the past five games. He has double-doubled in five straight contests and will need to be extremely active Tuesday.

Another player who will be crucial in this game is SG J.J. Redick (16.1 PPG). Redick had 27 points, five boards and four assists in 33 minutes against the Celtics on Sunday. He’s shooting a remarkable 56.7% from three over the past five games and will really have the Warriors on edge if he is knocking down his outside shots.

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