NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, May 10

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oklahoma City at San Antonio

San Antonio Spurs taken behind the woodshed spanked 111-97 in Oklahoma City allowing Thunder to tie the Western Conference semifinal series at two games apiece will be in one ugly mood when the series switches to San Antonio for Game 5.

It's not difficult making a case that San Antonio exacts revenge. Nothing like a good woopin' to get Spurs' attention re-focused on the task at hand. Coach Popovich's troops are a profitable 13-6 against the betting line following a postseason loss, a sparkling 7-2-1 ATS on home court after a double digit whoopin' in second season.

Additionally, Spurs are tough nuts to crack at AT&T Center in San Antonio. They've reeled off a 43-2 record in front of the friendly crowd with a profitable 26-19 mark against the betting line. Matching that, the Spurs are 15-5 (13-7 ATS) the past twenty second season games on home court including 4-1 SU/ATS running the hardwood vs Thunder.

The handicapping experts at Bovada.lv have Spurs 6.5 point home favorites with the total set at 199.0

Tuesday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
By Covers,com

The best series of the NBA Playoffs thus far gets a stand-alone spot Tuesday night as the San Antonio Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder in a pivotal Game 5.

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-7, 199.5)

Kevin Durant's huge game helped Oklahoma City knot the Western Conference semifinals and another stellar game from the All-Star forward could propel the third-seeded Thunder into a 3-2 series lead. Durant aims to follow up a 41-point effort in Game 4 and lead his team to a victory in San Antonio for the second time in this series when Oklahoma City visits the second-seeded Spurs on Tuesday.

Durant's output matched his career postseason high and he personally outscored San Antonio 17-16 in the final quarter of Sunday's 111-97 win. "When you have a deep team, those 40-point nights - they don't come a lot," Durant said afterward. "I'm just trying to be consistent in what I do, and I know in any given moment, I can go off and get a few shots." Though the Spurs were ran out of the building in the final quarter of Game 4, concern was mild afterward with the pivotal Game 5 looming. "We were up for a good part of the game. We couldn't close it," backup shooting guard Manu Ginobili told reporters. "So we've got to keep fighting. Nobody expected to sweep or have an easy series against a team like them. We're going back home. We have homecourt advantage. Hopefully, we take care of it."

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 6.5-point favorites and by Monday evening the books reacted to a flury of Spurs action and bumped the line up to -7. The total opened at 200.5 and was dropped a full point to 199.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (61-30, 42-48-1 ATS, 44-47 O/U): Durant is averaging 27.8 points in the series - he opened with a subpar 16-point showing in Game 1 - and point guard Russell Westbrook is averaging 22 points and 10.5 assists despite shooting just 33.3 percent. The biggest surprise has been the play of 22-year-old center Steven Adams, who has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in each of the four games while averaging 9.8 points and 12.3 rebounds as well as annoying most of the Spurs. "He makes the other bigs hate him because he goes hard every time," backup center Enes Kanter told reporters. "He gets under their skin, and in their head."

ABOUT THE SPURS (73-17, 49-41 ATS, 38-50-2 O/U): San Antonio was awful while being outscored 34-16 in the final quarter of Game 4 and it was more than Durant's greatness that decided the contest. "I think down the stretch in the fourth quarter, we made too many mistakes," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. "Just not remembering who we were guarding and how we wanted to play. But having said that, they out-toughed us, they battered us on the boards. At the same time, they had some other players that joined in and made shots." Point guard Tony Parker was strong offensively for the second straight game with 22 points - he is averaging 20.5 over the past two games after averaging just 4.5 over the first two contests.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Northwest.
* Over is 7-2 in Thunder last 9 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games.
* Thunder are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS REPORT: As of Monday night, 60 percent of the picks were on the Spurs to cover the spread and 67 percent of the wagers were on the Over.

Game 5 - Thunder at Spurs
By Sportsbook.ag

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (61-30) at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (73-17)

Sportsbook.ag Line: San Antonio -7.0, Total: 199.0

The Spurs will be looking to take a 3-2 series lead with a win at home over the Thunder in Game 5 on Tuesday.

Game 4 was a wild one in this series, as the Spurs had control of the game for nearly 40 minutes of action and ended up losing 111-97 as two-point road favorites. Oklahoma City outscored San Antonio 66-44 in the second half and the team will be hoping to carry some of that momentum into this massive Game 5 battle. One thing that stood out in Game 4 was that the Thunder shot 50.6% from the floor. It was by far their best offensive performance of the series and the Spurs must right the ship defensively soon.

Advertisement
One trend that seriously favors San Antonio in this game is that the team is 18-5 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more versus an opponent over the past three seasons. Both of these teams are entering this game at full strength, so hopefully injuries will not play a major factor in determining the outcome of this one.

The Thunder are coming off of a big Game 4 victory and SF Kevin Durant (26.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.7 APG in playoffs) came up huge for his team in that one. Durant finished the game with 41 points, five boards and four assists in 43 minutes of action on Sunday. He hit some clutch shots in the fourth quarter and must continue to find a way to score against Leonard in this series. Where he really had it going was from midrange and that’s an area he’ll be certain to exploit moving forward.

PG Russell Westbrook (24.2 PPG, 10.9 APG, 6.8 RPG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) was also really important in the Game 4 victory. Westbrook is normally trigger happy, but he sensed that it was Durant’s night and played the role of distributer. He ended up dishing out 15 assists and turning the ball over just three times, and it’s important that he continues to set his teammates up in the remainder of this series.

Another guy that must be mentioned is C Steven Adams (9.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG in playoffs), as he ended the game with 16 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks in 36 minutes of action. He’s been very active around the basket on both ends of the floor and his presence is giving San Antonio a ton of issues.

The Spurs are not going to be happy about the way they played in the second half on Sunday and they must now win this home Game 5 in order to stay in control of the series. One guy that must be better for San Antonio is SF Kawhi Leonard (22.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 1.8 BPG in playoffs). Leonard has been playing well throughout the postseason, but he was 7-for-19 from the floor and 0-for-4 from three in Game 4. The Spurs desperately needed Leonard to show up offensively and he really didn’t do that last game, finishing with just 21 points inefficiently. If he can find his stroke again then the Spurs should be fine moving forward.

San Antonio would also be wise to get PF LaMarcus Aldridge (22.6 PPG, 7.5 RPG in playoffs) more involved in this game. Aldridge had just 20 points on 18 shots in Game 4 and is capable of doing a lot better against this Thunder frontcourt. He’ll need to be aggressive in Game 5, as a big game from Aldridge would likely mean a victory for the Spurs.

Buster Sports

Oklahoma City at (536) San Antonio
Play: Oklahoma City +7.5

For our free play today we will go to the AT&T Center home of the San Antonio Spurs as the play host to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal. This series has been terrific, as these two teams are very evenly matched.

San Antonio is known for their defense but they had no answer for Kevin Durant on Sunday as he hung up 41 on the Spurs to even the series at 2 games a piece. At the beginning of this series OKC almost looked scared to play the mighty Spurs. After their blowout loss in Game One it seems that OKC has found something. Now that could be Durant and Westbrook just being superstars and refusing to get their lunch handed to them like they did in Game 1. Although i believe it has much to do with Coach Donovan as it does with the superstars. He might have been a little nervous in Game One himself going up against the genius Popovich. What Donovan did in Game 4 going with Adams and Kanter and leaving Ibaka on the bench in the 4th quarter, well this is what coaching is all about.

OKC who all year had trouble closing out games turned a 4 point deficit after 3 quarters into a 14 point win. This has OKC full of confidence and one of the reasons they are our play tonight. The linesmaker has made San Antonio a 7.5 point favorite in this game and we believe this is way too many points for San Antonio to give, home court and all.

Backing our play is that OKC is 4-1 ATS the last 5 on the rd and in the last 8 meetings with the Spurs they are 6-2 ATS.

So lets get the job done with the Oklahoma City Thunder plus the points as your free play of the day.

Otto Sports

A's vs Red Sox
Play: A's +110

Boston's Sean O'Sullivan is right there among the most hittable pitchers in the league. In just over 300 career innings, O'Sullivan's ERA sits at 5.96 with only 146 strikeouts. During his last stint with Philadelphia, he made 13 starts and somehow surrendered 16 home runs and 94 hits in only 71 innings. Now he's being asked to pitch -- albeit a spot start -- in the American League. Oakland lefty Sean Manaea is fairly highly regarded as a former first round pick back in 2013. His stuff is above average and in two starts he's been mildly effective -- 9 Ks and 53% ground balls. Boston isn't an ideal matchup but I'd gladly take a first-time lefty with promise over O'Sullivan. Despite being worked heavy this season and yesterday, Oakland's bullpen has been a pleasant surprise -- statistically right in line with Boston's. There will likely be plenty of hits and runs in this matchup but you simply can't be asked to lay any sort of price with O'Sullivan. Look for the A's jump out early and milk 5 or 6 innings out of Manaea.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia +106 over ATLANTA

The last time the Braves were favored, which isn’t often, was this past weekend when Julio Teheran was up against Shelby Miller. The Braves lost that game because that’s what Atlanta does best. The Braves are in rebuilding mode and are using many pitchers and every day players that are not MLB ready yet. They’ll still likely win between 50 and 60 games but the majority of those victories will likely occur when they are not expected to win. Taking back a tag against Atlanta is true value because they are going to lose close to 7 out of every 10 games no matter who is pitching.

Last season, pitching for the Braves, Matt Wisler went 8-8 with a 4.71 ERA in 109 innings. Wisler finished strong with four strong outings in his final five starts, but he gave us plenty of reasons to temper his short-term expectations, as his control suffered upon his promotion to the majors, he has a high fly-ball profile and he had godawful control vs LHB. This season we see an improvement in control but it’s coming at the expense of his very weak 6% swing and miss rate. Wisler has a BB/K split of 9/23 in 33 innings, which isn’t bad but that swing and miss rate does not support the K’s. At the end of the day, dude still pitches for the Braves.

Adam Morgan went 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA in 84 frames for the Phillies last year. Morgan lost 2014 to shoulder surgery and continued his recovery in the majors. His strand % shows little help from the pen, but low velocity (89 mph), low K-rate and extreme fly-ball pitchers shoulder a lot of their own blame. Thing is, Morgan’s velocity is up to 91.8 MPH this year. His fly-ball rate is also down and his K’s are up. Morgan has pitched just nine innings over two starts but he has 9 strikeouts with a 45% groundball rate. Morgan was a highly regarded prospect in the system prior to experiencing shoulder issues starting in 2013 so we could be seeing the start of something good here.

Arizona +102 over COLORADO

I appeared on Mike Tenay’s (Professor Vegas) sportsbetting podcast yesterday to talk some MLB among other things and one of the topics that came up was undervalued pitchers. We discussed a bunch of them and in that process some inevitably get overlooked. Rubby De La Rosa is one such pitcher that is way under the radar because of his 4.60 ERA after five starts. De La Rosa continues to flash elite skills and with a little more consistency, he could turn out to be one of this year’s most profitable starters. De La Rosa has 32 K’s in 29 innings to go along with an elite groundball rate of 53%. His swing and miss rate is bordering on elite at 12%.

De La Rosa uses a four-seam fastball (96 MPH) a slider (87 MPH), a change (88 MPH) and a wicked sinker (95 MPH). His ability to miss bats and induce groundballs is one that guarantees he’ll throw a bunch of gems this season. De La Rosa’s only flaw is his command against left-handed bats. His command against right-handers is elite so he’s a minor tweak away from being in the upper echelon of starting pitchers. That De La Rosa is a pooch against Chris Rusin is value at its best.

Rarely have we seen a pitcher get hit harder than Chris Rusin did in his last start against San Francisco at At&T Park. Saying the balls were hit hard would be an understatement. Rubin allowed 13 hits in 4.1 innings and he couldn't even make it out of the fifth inning despite having a 12-run lead. Of the 30 pitchers going today, which includes the dead arm of Matt Cain, Rusin’s soft-contact rate of 11% is by far the worst mark of the bunch. You may read about Rusin going into Arizona just two starts ago and allowing one-hit in 5.1 innings and think he fooled the D-Backs. He didn’t. They were hitting the ball hard too only it was right at people. With a career WHIP of 1.53 and having one of the worst soft-contact profiles in the league, you would be hard-pressed to find a riskier favorite than Chris Rusin or a game with more true value than this one has. Wrong side favored.

N.Y. Mets +102 over LOS ANGELES

What this market is going to see is Alex Wood’s 1.29 ERA at Dodger stadium after two starts. It is impressive, as Wood had almost identical pitching lines in both those starts, going seven full in each and allowing just five hits and one run in each. Wood battled mechanical issues in 2015. They appeared to be largely to blame for his marginal surface stats (3.84 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) and skills. His groundball rate continues to inch upward and now sits at an impressive 57%. However, after six starts, Wood still brings a WHIP of 1.48 to this start and that’s lingering in dangerous territory. He also was stung for three jacks in his last start in Tampa and was getting the ball up all game. Furthermore, Wood's last two starts shows a big decline in groundball rate, which indicates he's been getting the ball up in back-to-back starts. There could be some hidden discomfort problems for Wood that he's not disclosing. There is rebound potential for sure but he’s not a better option than Jacob deGrom in an evenly priced game,

deGrom got off to a bit of a late start this year and has only made four starts thus far. Last year he had a dynamic follow-up to his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2014 and improved on every significant metric, especially in the second half when his change-up and sinker became force multipliers. Another force, regression, says he can't be held to this standard of improvement, but if backsliding equates to 2014, he'd still find himself among the best starters in the game. The Mets took the opener of this series last night to run their road record to 11-5 while the Dodgers continue to struggle at home with just five wins in 14 games. This one doesn’t line up much differently than last night’s opener, as once again, we get the better starter (and team) plus a tag.

Cajun Sports

Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -123

The Cleveland Indians will send Trevor Bauer to the bump with his 2-0 record and an ERA of 5.14. Tonight’s starters opened the season in their respective bullpens with Houston’s Chris Devenski has done a better job than Bauer. Devenski enters tonight’s game with a 0-1 record and his ERA stands at 1.46 on the season. Devenski has made two starts so far this season allowing just three runs over eleven innings of work. A key number for him is strikeout to walk ratio where he has been impressive with a mark of 22 to 5. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.04 runs in favor of the Houston Astros in this contest. With the edge on the bump we will back the Astros here as they get the victory over the Indians on Tuesday night.

Scott Rickenbach

St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The old adage about something looking too good to be true applies in baseball as well. Those who have followed me know that I thrive on contrarian situations and I feel strongly that this is another beauty Tuesday. The public sees the Cardinals Mike Leake with an 0-3 record and a 6.03 ERA on the mound facing an Angels starter who is 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA in his 6 starts this season. The Angels are also 5-1 in Hector Santiago's 6 starts this year. However, what the public is overlooking is that Santiago has given up 16 hits in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts while Leake has allowed just 9 hits in his last 12 innings on the mound. Also, the Cardinals are averaging 6.5 runs per game on the road this season while the Angels are averaging only 3.1 runs per game at home this season. Both teams were off yesterday but, on Sunday, the Cardinals lost 10-5. The Cards are 94-60 when off of a loss the past three seasons combined. When St Louis has allowed 10 runs or more in a game, they have responded by going 9-4 the past three seasons combined in that situation. The Angels are only 1-4 in inter-league games this season and also, in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs, the Angels are 1-4 as well.

Ray Monohan

Pittsburgh / Cincinnati Over 9

The Pirates and Reds continue their weekday series and the Over holds value here. Both starting pitchers have been a struggle this season. For Pittsburgh, they send out Juan Nicasio, who was knocked around in his last start.

Nicasio allowed 4 runs on 8 hits while walking 3 against the Cubs. On the road he owns a 6.75 ERA in 2 starts this year. Alfredo Simon will toe the rubber for the Reds and he's been a mess this season. Simon owns a 9.86 ERA on the season and has been horrific at home. He's posted a 7 plus ERA inside Great American Ballpark.

Some trends to consider. Over is 8-3 in Simons last 11 starts during game 2 of a series. Over is 19-7 in Pirates last 26 overall. With both pitchers struggles this season, this Over at 9 has good value and is worth the look.

Jack Jones

Toronto Blue Jays -121

The Toronto Blue Jays have the edge on the mound again today over the San Francisco Giants. I'll back them against as the free pick for a second consecutive day as a result.

J.A. Happ has certainly found a home in the middle of the Blue Jays' rotation. He is 4-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in six starts this season. The left-hander gave up just one earned run in 7 innings of a 12-2 victory over Texas in his last turn.

Matt Cain has simply lost it. He is 0-4 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.709 WHIP in six starts this season, giving up 27 earned runs in 31 innings. Cain is 0-2 with a 9.19 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in his last three starts as well. I don't like his chances up against one of the best lineups in baseball in Toronto today.

The Blue Jays are 23-7 in their last 30 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Giants are 15-36 in Cain's last 51 starts overall. San Francisco is just 7-19 in Cain's last 26 home starts.

Brandon Lee

Toronto Blue Jays -121

Toronto is worth a look here on the road against the Giants Tuesday. The Blue Jays took the series opener 3-1 last night behind a dominant outing from starter Aaron Sanchez. Toronto once again has a big time edge on the mound, as they send out J.A. Happ against Matt Cain. Happ is 4-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 6 starts, while Cain is 0-4 with a 7.84 ERA and 1.709 WHIP in 6 starts. The Blue Jays haven't been scoring runs at the clip we expected, but I look for them to go off here against Cain. Keep in mind the wind will be blowing straight out to center and Cain has allowed multiple home runs in each of his last 2 starts. Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 after a game where they scored and allowed 3 runs or less and 4-13 in their last 17 after back-to-back losses by 2 runs or less.

Jimmy Boyd

Diamondbacks -102

Arizona is showing great value here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Rockies. The Diamondbacks took the series opener 10-5 yesterday and have now won 4 straight. During this stretch they have scored 26 runs on 41 hits.

I don't see the offense slowing down at Coors Field against Chris Rusin, who is coming off an absolutely miserable start at Pittsburgh. Rusin allowed 7 runs on 13 hits and 2 walks in just 4 1/3 innings of work. Arizona will counter with Rubby De La Rosa, who comes in with a 2.41 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It's also important to note that De La Rosa has pitched well at Coors Field in his career. He's allowed just 7 runs on 14 hits in 18 innings of work.

NL home teams who are giving up 5.3 or more runs/game on the season are 14-43 (25%) against the money line after allowing 8 or more runs in their previous game. The Diamondbacks are also 8-1 in their 9 road games against a team with a losing record this season, 8-1 in their last 9 road games after playing 4 or more straight on the road and the Rockies are just 6-21 in their last 27 home games after a loss by 4 runs or more.

Dave Price

Tampa Bay Rays -126

I'm willing to lay some juice with the Tampa Bay Rays today considering they have one of the most underrated starters pitchers in the game going tonight. Drew Smyly sports a 2.72 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in 6 starts this season with 47 K's in 39 2/3 innings. The left-hander has been unhittable on the road, going 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in 2 road starts. Wade Miley is 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 6 starts for the Mariners. The Rays are 8-1 in Smyly's last 9 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.