NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, May 14

Tuesday's NBA Playoff Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (-7, 195)

Best-of-seven series tied 2-2.

The Golden State Warriors are proving to be a tough opponent for the San Antonio Spurs. Just when it looked like the series was again turning in the Spurs’ favor, the Warriors took back the momentum and will be searching for a 3-2 lead when they visit San Antonio for Game 5 on Tuesday. Stephen Curry shook off another ankle sprain to score 22 points in Game 4 as Golden State claimed an overtime victory.

The Spurs are learning that Curry is not the only player to worry about on the other side, and Harrison Barnes and Jarrett Jack did the bulk of the damage for the Warriors down the stretch in Game 4. The bigger problem for San Antonio was a lack of execution on the offensive end, especially in the fourth quarter and overtime. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich was dismayed by the team’s inability to hit free throws. “We didn’t make our free throws,” he told reporters. “And I don’t think I’ll be able to watch film and come up with an answer for you of why we missed our free throws.”

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State fell behind in the first and second quarters of Game 4 while Andrew Bogut and Carl Landry were on the bench with foul trouble. The Warriors made the decision to match up with a big starting unit and Bogut and Landry combined to play 12 minutes in the first half. Bogut ended up playing 28 minutes and grabbing 18 rebounds while harassing Spurs forward Tim Duncan into a 7-for-22 shooting performance. Curry came through in the second half as well, knocking down a pair of 3-pointers during a key stretch in the third quarter and going 5-for-10 from beyond the arc in the contest. His three-point play in overtime helped seal the win. The star guard was a game-time decision due to his injured left ankle but ended up playing 39 minutes. Barnes picked up some slack with a career-high 26 points and attempted nearly as many field goals (26) as Curry and Klay Thompson combined (28).

ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio point guard Tony Parker is dealing with a calf injury and was less explosive in Game 4. His struggles to get into the lane left some of the perimeter shooters covered, and the Spurs went 7-for-27 from beyond the arc. Parker (5-for-6) was one of few reliable performers at the free-throw line, however, as San Antonio went 14-for-25 from the stripe. The Spurs missed two free throws and seven straight field goals to begin overtime after fumbling away an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter. “We put ourselves in position to win the game,” Duncan said, “and it’s frustrating because we feel like we gave it away.”

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Warriors’ last six overall.
* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in Spurs’ last five overall.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Warriors, who went 30 straight games between victories in San Antonio, will be looking for two straight in the city during Game 5.

2. Duncan has recorded three double-doubles in the four games but has yet to shoot 50 percent or better in the series.

3. Golden State F David Lee played eight minutes in Game 4, his most since suffering a torn hip flexor in Game 1 of the first round.

New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-5.5, 179.5)

Indiana leads series 2-1.

The Indiana Pacers fixed whatever had slowed them down in Game 2 and put together a strong defensive performance to take Game 3. The Pacers will be looking for a commanding 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference semifinals when they host the New York Knicks on Tuesday. The Knicks are dealing with some internal turmoil over shot selection while trying to work Amar’e Stoudemire back into the forward rotation.

New York center Tyson Chandler, who has had trouble guarding Indiana’s Roy Hibbert while also offering little on the offensive end in the series, was seemingly critical of Knicks shooters Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. “I watched the tape myself and there’s open looks,” Chandler told reporters. “We have to be willing passers. You have to sacrifice yourself sometimes for the betterment of the team, for the betterment of your teammates. … I‘m not saying anyone is doing it maliciously. I think it’s moreso a situation, you want to take over the game or you want to make a big shot, where you have to just stick to the game plan.” The Pacers’ defense has forced New York to become a different offensive team by taking away the 3-point line.

ABOUT THE KNICKS: Chandler did not mention Smith or Anthony by name, but those are the two players taking the bulk of the shots and both have struggled. Anthony scored 16 points during a 30-2 run that sealed a Game 2 win but has otherwise had a hard time with Paul George and David West. The All-Star forward was held to 6-for-16 from the field in Game 3 and went 10-for-28 in Game 1, both losses. Smith, who has been dealing with an illness and missed his second straight day of practice on Monday, is 11-for-42 in the series and has not reached double figures in scoring in either of the last two contests. Chandler, who was named to the All-Defensive First Team on Monday, got into foul trouble in Game 3 and has averaged seven points and four rebounds in the series.

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana came out aggressively in Game 3 and quickly erased the sting of Game 2’s collapse. The Pacers’ commitment to the defensive end helped hold the Knicks to 35.2 percent from the field and limited them to 11 3-point attempts. Paul George (2-for-12) had more 3-point attempts all by himself and made up for a tough shooting day with some tight defense on Anthony and Smith. “That’s how we play Pacers basketball,” George said. “We just locked in, and it was just helping one another on the defensive end.” Indiana held a 53-40 rebounding edge in Game 3 as both Hibbert and West pulled down 12 boards.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Knicks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
* Pacers are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 Conference Semifinals games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Pacers are 4-0 at home in the postseason.

2. New York G Iman Shumpert (left knee) missed practice on Monday but is expected to play on Tuesday.

3. The teams combined for 32 turnovers and 46 fouls in Game 3

2013 NBA Playoffs

Carmelo Anthony was 6-16 in Game 3 after shooting 48-121 (39.7%) from floor in his first five games vs Indiana this year; JR Smith is 19-63 in four losses vs Pacers, 15-36 in three New York Ws- he played 25 minutes Saturday, might play less here. Stoudemire played nine minutes in Game 3, NY was even during that time. Nine of last 13 Knick games stayed under the total; 12 of last 17 Indy games went over. New York lost 81-76/125-91/82-71 in three visits to Conseco this year. Indiana won its last four home games, with all four wins by 11+ points.

Leads haven't been safe in Warrior-Spur series; SA came back from huge deficit to win Game 1, blew 80-72 lead with 4:40 left in Game 4, now its a best-of-3 series. To those who say Steph Curry shouldn't have played whole game in 1st game of series, Warriors were +24 in 81 minutes he played in Games 3-4, -24 in 20:00 he sat out. Warriors are 12-1 against spread in last 13 games overall; under is 6-4 in Golden State's playoff games. Spurs are 6-2 in playoffs, with five wins by double digits; home side is 6-2 in series games this year. Last three series tilts stayed under.

Armadillosports.com

Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Bettors backing the favorites started the week on a good note last night as Miami and Memphis captured wins both straight up and against the spread. The underdogs started the second-round with a 6-2 record versus the number but the ‘chalk’ has produced a 5-2 record in the last seven games.

Will the favorites cash Tuesday? With the help from the hottest NBA handicapper on VegasInsider.com, Brian Edwards, let’s break down tonight’s double-header.

Game 4 – New York at Indiana

Indiana opened a 2-1 lead against New York after capturing an 82-71 victory at home as a five-point favorite. The Pacers didn’t play spectacular by any means but they received a big effort from center Roy Hibbert, who finished with 24 points and 12 rebounds, eight coming on the offensive end.

Carmelo Anthony led the Knicks with 21 points on 6-of-16 shooting but the team only shot 35 percent and some teammates were upset with the shot selections.

“I watched the tape myself and there's open looks,'' center Tyson Chandler said. “You have to sacrifice yourself sometimes for the betterment of the team. I think we need to do a better job of allowing the game to dictate who takes the shots. You get in a situation where you want to take over the game or you want to make a big shot where you have to stick to the game plan. Good teams win basketball games unless you're a great, great, great, great individual.''

If anybody on this Knicks squad can open his mouth, Chandler is one of them, considering he won a championship a couple years ago with the Dallas Mavericks. Will guys like Anthony and J.R. Smith follow suit and start playing team basketball?

Brian Edwards answered, “Indiana has dominated New York at home this year and has won all four postseason home games by double-digit margins. Nevertheless, I think the Knicks are certainly capable of winning Game 4 and pulling even in the series. What they have to have is Carmelo Anthony playing like he did in the regular season. His effort from the field in Game 3 isn't going to cut it. Anthony has to be the best player on the court and it would help if J.R. Smith would start providing some production from 3-point land. Since Smith's suspension in the Boston series, he has been held below his regular-season scoring average (18.1 points per game) for five straight games. During this five-game span, Smith is an abysmal 19-of-69 from the field (27.5%).”

As a team, New York has shot 43 percent against the Pacers in the first three games and that includes 33 percent from 3-point land. Bettors shouldn’t be surprised, especially if they watched the Knicks in the first-round against Boston. In that series, New York averaged 87.7 points per game and only shot 41 percent from the field. The difference against the Pacers is they have more offense than Boston, which has been the case in the first three games.

Indiana opened as a five-point favorite and the number has moved to 5 ½-points. Smith and Kenyon Martin missed practice with the team due to an illness but are expected to play. Along with this pair, shooting guard Iman Shumpert (knee) is banged up and listed as ‘questionable’ for Tuesday. Amare Stoudemire did return Saturday but he only played nine minutes, finishing with seven points and two rebounds.

If you like New York to win Game 4, then perhaps you should look at the adjusted series price. You can back the Knicks at 2/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $200), which would leave you with plenty of hedge opportunities if they knot the series. Especially with New York holding home-court edge.

Total players are staring at number between 179 and 180. Saturday’s game was a clear-cut ‘under’ play but prior to that, Indiana did see its first three playoff games at home against Atlanta go ‘over.’

The pair will head to Madison Square Garden on Thursday for Game 5. If necessary, Game 6 will take place on Saturday from Indiana.

Game 5 – Golden State at San Antonio

Backing a team off a loss isn’t always the smartest move but it’s been the trend in this series and based on the line tonight, San Antonio appears to be the lean on paper. With the series tied 2-2, oddsmakers opened the Spurs as eight-point home favorites for Game 5 but the number has dropped to seven at most betting shops.

Golden State was almost staring at elimination tonight but it rallied on Sunday and captured a 97-87 overtime win in Game 4. The Warriors erased an eight-point deficit in the final four minutes of regulation and outscored San Antonio 13-3 in the extra session as the Spurs missed their first nine shots in OT.
We asked Edwards what was more surprising, the Warriors rallying for the win or the Spurs collapsing on Sunday?

“I was a little surprised that San Antonio allowed a comfortable fourth-quarter lead to get away. Obviously, Golden State is capable of comebacks because Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are such explosive scorers, but it's rare that the Spurs let one like that get away. This is probably the most entertaining series we're going to see during the entire postseason. The next two, or three if necessary, games are must-watch television,” answered Edwards.

The Warriors backcourt have been a two-headed monster in this series but foul trouble for Thompson and a hobble ankle for Curry only saw the duo combine for 32 points on Sunday. Picking up the slack was rookie Harrison Barnes (26) and Jarrett Jack (24), who combined for 50 points. Curry is listed as ‘probable’ but he certainly won’t be 100 percent.

Looking at the Game 4 box score closer, San Antonio didn’t deserve to win the game and was fortunate to be ahead late in the fourth quarter. The Spurs were beat on the glass (65-51) and they only shot 36 percent from the field and an atrocious 56 percent (14-of-25) from the free throw line.

Experience definitely sides with head coach Gregg Popovich and San Antonio tonight. This will be the 11th instance when the Spurs will play a Game 5 in a best-of-seven series tied at 2-2 under Pop. The Spurs have gone 7-3 in the series but they have lost the last two times, which includes last year’s loss in the conference finals to Oklahoma City.

If you’re handicapping comes down to current form, then the Warriors are the play, especially with the points. Golden State is 12-1 versus the number in their last 13 games and that includes a 9-1 mark in the playoffs.

San Antonio went 35-6 in the regular season at home and is 3-1 in the postseason, the lone playoff loss coming in Game 2 to Golden State. That win for the Warriors snapped a 30-game losing streak at San Antonio. Golden State at a plus-270 price (Bet $100 to win $270) to win Game 5 on the road and you can take them to win the series at 5/2 (Bet $100 to win $250) odds.

After watching a double-overtime shootout in Game 1, gamblers playing the ‘over’ easily cashed tickets. Since then, the ‘under’ has cashed in the last three installments and the oddsmakers are expecting that trend to continue on Tuesday.

The totals in the first three games ranged from 203 to 205 while Sunday’s early start saw the number close at 197. For Game 5, the ‘over/under’ is hovering around 195 points, which does present some value.
Edwards said, “Those are big adjustments from 203 in Game 1 and 205 in Game 2. Therefore, the value seems to be with the 'over' on Tuesday.”

It should be mentioned that Golden State did lead the league in 3-point shooting percentage (40.3) and San Antonio was close behind in fourth (37.6%). However, the free throw shooting for San Antonio (70%) and Golden State (71%) has been well below average in this series.

Game 6 will be in played at Oracle Arena in Oakland on Thursday night. If necessary, a decisive Game 7 is slated for Sunday from San Antonio.