NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, May 17

NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Toronto vs Cleveland

Toronto Raptors dispatched Indiana, Miami in fourteen games (5-9 ATS) advancing to the Eastern Conference final for the first time in franchise history. Except for the final game vs Heat the Raptors have struggled at both ends of the court this postseason and hit the hardwood netting 99.4 per 100 possessions while allowing 101.5 per opponent 100 possessions.

King James and his Cavaliers firing on all cylinders through a perfect 8-0 (5-3 ATS) stretch this postseason have a league-best 117.2 offensive efficiency rating in the playoffs while recording a 106.6 defensive efficiency rating against Pistons, Hawks.

The healthy, rested Cavaliers have opened a massive -10.5 point favorite at Sports Interaction when the teams collide at Quicken Loans Arena Tuesday evening. Might be a touch generous.

The Caves were just 7-9 ATS laying double digits on home court during regular season, 1-1 against the betting line laying the equivalent number during rounds 1 & 2. Additionally, since LeBrons return to Cleveland, the Raptors have made a habit of giving King James and his Cavaliers all they can handle on Quicken Loans hardwood splitting twelve meetings straight-up but more importantly recording a profitable 8-4 mark against the spread in those meetings.

Game 1 - Raptors at Cavaliers
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

After dealing out broom treatment twice to Detroit and Atlanta, Cleveland is poised to host Toronto tonight in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Quicken Loans Arena.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Cleveland (65-25 straight up, 42-45-3 against the spread) as a 10-point home favorite with a total of 202.5 points. As of early this morning, the betting shop had the Cavs as 10-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 201.5.

The Cavaliers are -700 on the money line, while gamblers can take the Raptors to win outright for a monster +500 return (risk $100 to win $500). For first-half wagers, Tyronn Lue’s squad is favored by 6.5 points.

Toronto (64-32 SU, 50-46 ATS) won two of three head-to-head meetings with Cleveland both SU and ATS during the regular season. In the first matchup on Nov. 25, the Raptors won a 103-99 decision as three-point home underdogs. The 202 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 200.5-point total.

Cleveland’s J.R. Smith buried a pair of 3-pointers in the final seconds to create a misleading final score. The Cavs played without Kyrie Irving.

Kyle Lowry paced his team with 27 points, four steals and six assists without a turnover. DeMar DeRozan finished with 20 points and four assists compared to only one turnover. Luis Scola contributed 15 points and seven rebounds while making 7-of-11 shots from the field. DeMarre Carroll was also in double figures with 12 points and was key in causing LeBron James (24 points and eight assists) to make only 6-of-16 from the field.

Bismack Biyombo had 11 points and 12 rebounds for the winners. Kevin Love finished with 21 points and 13 boards in the losing effort. The Raptors played without Jonas Valanciunas, who is ‘out’ for the series opener and is ‘doubtful’ for Game 2. He hasn’t even started basketball activities since spraining his ankle in Game 3 at Miami.

Before getting injured, Valanciunas had posted four consecutive double-doubles. During the regular season, Toronto’s starting center averaged 12.8 points, 9.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocked shots per game while shooting at a 56.5 percent clip from the field. In 10 postseason games, Valancuinas was averaging 15.0 points, 12.1 rebounds and 1.4 blocks while hitting shots at a 55.0 percent clip.

In the second regular-season encounter between these clubs, Cleveland captured a 122-100 victory as an eight-point home favorite. The 222 combined points soared ‘over’ the 194-point total. The Cavs outscored the Raptors by 20 in the second half.

Irving scored 25 points, grabbed six rebounds and handed out eight assists compared to merely one turnover. James had 20 points, seven assists and three steals, while Smith drained 8-of-14 attempts form 3-point range in a 24-point effort. Love finished with 14 points and nine rebounds, while Tristan Thompson produced 14 points and 11 boards.

Lowry contributed 23 points, four rebounds, two steals and 10 assists without a turnover in defeat. DeRozan finished with 19 points and Patrick Peterson added 15.

The rubber match in the regular season went to the Raptors, who won by a 99-97 count as 2.5-point home underdogs on Feb. 26. The 196 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 206.5-point tally.

Lowry was the catalyst with a career-high 43 points on incredible 15-of-20 shooting from the field. The Villanova product also had nine assists, five rebounds and four steals. Terrence Ross added 15 points from off the bench.

James finished with 25 points, eight rebounds and seven assists, but he committed six turnovers. Love had 20 points, nine boards and five assists without any turnovers.

While Cleveland has been resting and scouting for eight days after disposing of the Hawks with consecutive come-from-behind wins in Games 3 and 4 at Philips Arena, Toronto just polished off Miami in a grueling seven-game series that saw three games go to overtime.

Dwane Casey’s club outscored the Heat 30-11 in the fourth quarter to win by a 116-89 score as a 4.5-point home favorite in Sunday’s Game 7 at Air Canada Centre. Lowry led the way with 35 points, nine assists, seven rebounds and four steals. DeRozan added 28 points and eight boards, while Biyombo dominated the paint with 17 points, 16 boards and a pair of blocked shots. Carroll finished with 14 points, while Patterson had 11 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks.

Lowry struggled mightily in the Indiana series that took seven games for Toronto to get through. In Games 3, 5, 6 and 7 against Miami, however, Lowry scored 33, 25, 36 and 35 points, respectively. Though it appears Lowry has been his slump in the rearview mirror, he’s still shooting at a shaky 36.6 percent clip from the field in 14 postseason games this year. He’s made only 28.3 percent of his looks from downtown.

DeRozan, the Raps’ other All-Star, had 34, 23 and 28 points in the final three games against the Heat. But his shooting percentages from the field (35.5%) and from 3-point land (18.2%) have been horrible through 14 playoff outings.

Lue’s team shot the lights out from 3-point land against Atlanta. In the close-out game two Sundays ago, Cleveland made 16-of-37 from beyond the arc. Love hit eight 3’s en route to tallying 27 points, 13 rebounds and four assists. James nearly had a triple-double, contributing 21 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. Irving also had 21 points.

In the only blowout of the series, Cleveland made an NBA-record 25 triples in Game 2. Smith hit seven 3-balls in a 23-point effort.

Cleveland owns a 37-8 SU record and a 23-22 ATS mark at home this year. Meanwhile, Toronto has posted a 25-21 SU record and a 24-22 ATS ledger in its road outings this season.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David had this take on the Game 1 side: “The rust versus rest debate will come into play for Game 1 since Cleveland hasn’t played in over a week. Even though the Cavaliers have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread when playing on at least three days of rest this season, they didn’t look sharp in the last two situations which happened in this year’s playoffs. They beat Detroit in Game 1 of the first round but failed to cover and in the conference semifinals, they barely squeaked out a win and cover against Atlanta.

“It’s hard to dismiss what Cleveland has done in the postseason and they should win this series in five games or less. However, winning games and covering double digits are two completely different things and the Cavaliers haven’t been exactly a great bet in those role. They’ve gone 15-2 overall and produced a 9-8 record at the betting counter. While those ATS numbers make me believe Toronto has a shot to stay within reach on Tuesday, it’s hard to ignore that its gone 2-4 on the road in the playoffs and the spread hasn’t mattered. In the four losses, they lost by an average of 13.5 PPG.”

Totals have been an overall wash (45-45) for the Cavs, who have watched the ‘over’ go 24-21 in their home contests.

The ‘over’ has hit in three straight games for the Raptors, who had previously seen the ‘under’ on a 10-2 roll. The ‘under’ is 48-47-1 overall for Toronto, 26-20-1 in their road assignments.

David likes Cleveland’s team total to go ‘over’ in Tuesday’s series lid-lifter. “Based on what we’ve seen offensively from both Cleveland (107.8 PPG) and Toronto (94.7 PPG) in this year’s playoffs, the opening total for Game 1 (202 ½) is spot on. Two of the three regular season outcomes (103-99, 99-97) between the pair finished close to this number and then there was a 122-100 shootout victory for Cleveland. In that win the Cavs drilled 17 bombs from 3-point land and that’s something we’ve seen from the club in this year’s playoffs. Cleveland hasn’t been held under 100 in the postseason and leaning to its team total ‘over’ (106) on Tuesday looks doable.”

Tip-off is scheduled for 8:35 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

After trailing 60-47 at intermission of Game 1 on Monday night in Oakland, Oklahoma City rallied to take the series opener 108-102 at Golden State as a 7.5-point underdog. The Thunder hooked up money-line supporters with a +325 payout (paid $325 on $100 wagers). They won outright despite the fact that Kevin Durant (10-of-30) and Russell Westbrook (7-of-21) were awful from the field.

Westbrook made 11-of-14 free throws, however, and finished with 27 points, 12 assists, seven steals and six rebounds. Durant had 26 points, 10 boards and three steals. Steven Adams had 16 points, 12 rebounds and two blocked shots, while Serge Ibaka had 11 points and 11 boards. Dion Waiters was excellent off the bench, contributing 10 points and four assists without a turnover while making 4-of-6 shots from the floor.

Steph Curry went 1-of-6 from the field for Golden St. in the fourth quarter when it was outscored 23-14. The game was on pace to go ‘over’ after OKC scored 38 compared to the Warriors’ 28 in the third. But in the end, the 210 combined points didn’t even get close to the 225-point total. The tally increased throughout the day Monday after being around 222.5 in the morning.

Curry’s final stat line in Game 1: 26 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and three steals. However, the Davidson product had seven turnovers and shot just 9-of-22 from the field. Klay Thompson finished with 25 points, nine rebounds and four assists, while Draymond Green had 23 points, five boards, four assists and two blocks.

With last night’s win at Oracle Arena, OKC improved to 6-2 ATS in eight games when listed as an underdog of seven points or more.

Tuesday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, 201.5)

The Cleveland Cavaliers have yet to be challenged this postseason and attempt to continue to cruise past opponents when they open the Eastern Conference finals against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday. Cleveland is 8-0 in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta, while Toronto went the full seven games to eliminate both Indiana and Miami.

The Cavaliers will be the fresher team having not played since May 8 while the Raptors completed a hard-fought series with the Miami Heat on Sunday. "I've always said anytime you get an opportunity to get some rest throughout the course of our season, it's always beneficial for anybody," Cavaliers forward LeBron James told reporters. "Doesn't matter if you're a 31-year-old guy who's played a lot of basketball or you're a 19-year-old kid who just came into the league." Toronto has reached the conference finals for the first time in franchise history but coach Dwane Casey - a Dallas assistant when that organization won the 2011 NBA title - doesn't feel his team is satisfied. "It’s very important for our program," Casey told reporters. "I think we've done everything we've set out to do, but we're not done yet. I know what it's like to win a championship. I'm not saying we can do that, but I think this group is hungry."

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as double-digit favorites at home for Game 1 at -10.5 and the line hasn't moved as of Monday evening. The total opened at 202.5 and has come down a full point to 201.5. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (64-32, 50-46 ATS, 47-48-1 O/U): Point guard Kyle Lowry began the postseason in a miserable slump but he starts the conference finals as a red-shot performer after averaging 35.5 points in the final two games of the series against the Heat. "It's the dedication that I've put into this game of basketball for myself and for this organization," Lowry told reporters after having 35 points, nine assists, seven rebounds and four steals in the 116-89 Game 7 blowout victory. "I just wanted to make sure I could be the best player I could be, at all times - especially on the biggest stage." The Raptors will be without starting center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) for at least the first two games of the series and Casey said Monday that "he's a little ways away from contributing in a playoff game."

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (65-25, 42-45-3 ATS, 45-45 O/U): James averaged 23.5 points through the first two rounds of the playoffs - below his career mark of 28 per game - as point guard Kyrie Irving (24.4) and power forward Kevin Love (18.9 points, 12.5 rebounds) have both had strong postseasons. Coach Tyronn Lue feels the help other players - including the occasional boost from supporting cast players like guard J.R. Smith and forward Channing Frye - has been a big aid to James. "I don't think he's been in this position before where he can just sit back and see the flow of the game, see where he has to take over the game and it's been great for him," Lue told reporters. "I mean, to average 23 points or 24 points and sweep both series is big for us because now our other guys are stepping up, they're playing well and we know LeBron always can play well."

TRENDS:

* Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Cavaliers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 8-1 in Raptors last 9 road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Toronto Raptors are picking up 66 percent of the spread action as of Monday evening and Over 201.5 is grabbing 60 percent of the over/under plays.

Tuesday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag

TORONTO RAPTORS (64-32) at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (65-25)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -11, Total: 201.5

The Cavaliers will be looking to take a 1-0 series lead with a home victory over the Raptors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday.

The Raptors hosted the Heat in Game 7 on Sunday and ended up winning 116-89 as 4.5-point favorites. Toronto now finds itself in the team’s first Eastern Conference Finals in franchise history. The Raptors will, however, need to find their offense in this series. They have shot less than 45% from the floor in 12 of their 14 postseason games and that is not going to cut it against a Cavaliers team that is averaging 107.8 PPG during the playoffs.

Toronto went 2-1 both SU and ATS versus Cleveland during the regular season, so the team should have some confidence coming into the series. The Raptors also get to face a Cavaliers team that is just 0-9 ATS after covering five or six of its past seven games this season.

It’s not all bad for the Cavaliers, though. Cleveland is an impressive 13-3 ATS in home games after playing four consecutive games as a favorite since 1996 and this just may be the most confident team in the playoffs, as it has not dropped a single game thus far.

C Jonas Valanciunas (Ankle) is expected to miss at least the first two games of this series for the Raptors, but he is the only player that is listed on the injury report for either team.

The Raptors have showed a ton of toughness in this postseason, winning back-to-back Game 7s to get to the Eastern Conference Finals. If this team is going to have any chance of getting further than that then it will need a huge series from PG Kyle Lowry (18.6 PPG, 6.7 APG, 4.8 RPG, 1.9 SPG in playoffs).

Lowry came up big for the Raptors in Games 6 and 7, averaging 35.5 PPG and 6.0 APG in those contests. He’ll need to use his strength and ability to finish at the rim against a much weaker Kyrie Irving in this one. Lowry isn’t tall, but he does know how to use his wide body to create space for himself and that will come in handy this series. He will need to continue to shoot the three-ball well. He’s shooting just 28.3% from the outside during the postseason, but he is 12-for-21 from three over the past three contests.

SG DeMar DeRozan (20.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) will also need to be at his best in this series. He is shooting just 35.5% from the floor in the playoffs and must be a lot more efficient moving forward. The shooting guard position is one that the Raptors have an advantage at, but DeRozan must play more like the way he did in the regular season.

One guy that could be an x-factor for Toronto is SF DeMarre Carroll (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs). Carroll will need to make things difficult on LeBron James in this series. He’s a very good defender and that’s where he can make a mark for the Raptors. Carroll can also help the team by keeping up his hot shooting from three. He’s hitting 46.2% of his outside shots over the past five games and that is helping the team space the floor.

The Cavaliers have been the hottest team in the entire postseason, but they’ll definitely need to knock off some rust after a nine-day break. If Cleveland is going to advance to the Finals then SF LeBron James (23.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 7.3 APG, 2.4 SPG in playoffs) is the guy that is going to lead them there. James is a threat to put up a triple-double every night and creates a size mismatch whenever he is on the floor. He’ll need to be aggressive going to the basket, as he can draw fouls or find his teammates at a high level when attacking the rim.

PG Kyrie Irving (24.4 PPG, 5.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) and PF Kevin Love (18.9 PPG, 12.5 RPG in playoffs) are also going to be huge in this series. They are the two guys that must step their games up and help out James the rest of the way. If Irving can win his matchup with Lowry in this series then it’ll be extremely hard for the Cavaliers to lose. Irving has the ability to score on anybody, but he’ll need to lock in on the defensive end.

Love, meanwhile, should be able to dominate this series. The Raptors are extremely thin at the power forward spot and Love will need to go to work inside and also knock down his shots from the perimeter.