NBA Knowledge
Oklahoma City-Golden State
Thunder was up 25 at half in Game 3, cruised to an easy win. Warriors starters other than Curry/Thompson shot 5-21 from floor. Golden State won seven of last ten games with Oklahoma City; two of three games in this series stayed under. Warriors are 2-3 in their last five visits here; four of those five games went over total. Thunder won four of last five home games. Golden State is 2-3 in its last five road games. Time to step up for Warriors here, or else they'll be down 3-games-to-1.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 3-4, over: 3-3-1
Armadillosports.com
Game 4 - Warriors at Thunder
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
For the first time in these playoffs, the reigning NBA champion trails in a series. Oklahoma City (65-31 straight up, 46-49-1 against the spread) dominated Golden State in Sunday’s Game 3 at Chesapeake Energy Arena, coasting to a 133-105 win as a two-point home underdog. The 238 combined points soared ‘over’ the 219.5-point total.
Golden State (82-13 SU, 53-40-2 ATS) trailed by six after the first quarter, then went into intermission down 25 points after the Thunder went on a 38-19 roll in the second quarter. The lead would reach 37 going into the final stanza.
Billy Donovan’s club scored only 16 points in the fourth, but it still produced the highest output of any team in this postseason. The 133 was a franchise-record in the playoffs.
Russell Westbrook led the way with 30 points, 12 assists, eight rebounds and two steals. Kevin Durant had a game-high 33 points on 10-of-15 shooting from the field. Durant made all 12 of his free throws, pulled down eight boards and blocked three shots.
Serge Ibaka added 14 points, eight rebounds and two rejections, while Andre Roberson contributed 13 points and six boards. In only 18 minutes of playing time from off the bench, Enes Kanter tallied 10 points and 12 rebounds. Dion Waiter had 13 points, three rebounds and three assists.
In the losing effort, Steph Curry had 24 points, five rebounds and three assists, but he struggled at a 3-of-11 clip from downtown. Klay Thompson finished with 18 points but was limited to one rebound and one assist compared to three turnovers. No other Warrior scored in double figures. They made only 41.3 percent of their overall shots, hitting only 10-of-33 from deep.
OKC dominated the boards by a 52-38 margin. The Thunder made 50 percent of its overall shots, going 8-of-25 from 3-point range. They did a lot of work at the charity stripe, draining 33-of-37 attempts (89.2%).
For tonight’s Game 4, the Westgate SuperBook opened the matchup as a pick ‘em with a total of 222 points. After moving to one, the number was increased to 1.5 points early Monday night. The total was down to 221.5 as of early this morning. OKC was available on the money line for a +105 return (risk $100 to win $105). For first-half wagers, it’s a pick ‘em.
With its outright victory in Game 3, OKC improved to 1-1-1 ATS in its three games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Golden State has compiled a 1-4 spread record when listed as a road favorite by 3.5 points or fewer.
VegasInsider.com's Chris David had this take on Game 4: “Tuesday’s game is a very tough handicap because the eyeball test should have you leaning to Oklahoma City after what we saw from them on Sunday. However, you can’t ignore the fact that Golden State hasn’t dropped back-to-back games all season. The Warriors have gone 12-0 in these situations and more importantly, they’ve produced an 8-3-1 record at the betting counter. This includes a 3-0 mark in the playoffs with victories coming by 27, 7 and 27 points.
“The one close call took place in Game 4 at Portland from the Moda Center, which is often considered one of the toughest venues in the NBA and very similar to Chesapeake Energy Arena since it’s the only pro game in town. Golden State won the contest in overtime 132-125 and as I’ve noted before, the offensive production shouldn’t come as a surprise. The Warriors are averaging just under 121 points per game in these situations and seeing a team total of 110½ for Tuesday’s contest could have you leaning to their high side.”
OKC now owns a 37-11 SU record and a 24-23-1 ATS mark in its home games. Golden State has won 36 of its 46 road outings while posting a 25-19-2 spread ledger it its road contests.
The ‘under’ cashed in the first two games of this series before the ‘over’ appeared in Game 3. The ‘under’ also went 2-1 in three regular-season meetings.
The ‘over’ is 51-43-1 overall for the Warriors, 26-20 in their road assignments.
The ‘under’ is 50-46 overall for the Thunder, 28-20 in their home contests.
David had this opinion for the total: “Even though the ‘over’ connected easily in Game 3, the oddsmakers didn’t rush to adjust the total for Game 4 and have kept the number in the same neighborhood. The effort from OKC on Sunday was the sixth time they scored 130-plus points this season. Looking at the following games, the Thunder’s offense has proven they’re not a fluke by averaging 111 PPG. Coincidentally, they have a team total of 110½ as well for Tuesday and the numbers tell you’ll that the outcome should be tight.”
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern tonight on TNT.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
The last time Golden State trailed in a series was when the Cavs took a 2-1 advantage in last year’s NBA Finals. On that occasion, the Warriors responded to win three consecutive games and win the world title.
Gamblers could have taken Toronto at 200/1 odds to win the NBA championship after getting run out of Quicken Loans Arena in Game 2. After back-to-back home wins, however, the Raptors have pulled even with Cleveland at 2-2 in the Eastern Conference finals.
Dwane Casey’s squad raced out to an 18-point lead in last night’s Game 4 at Air Canada Centre, only to fall down by three midway through the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers went cold in the final five minutes and Toronto regained the lead and captured a 105-99 win to even the best-of-seven set. The Raptors won outright as six-point home underdogs, while the 204 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 197-point total. They hooked up money-line supporters with a sweet +230 payout (paid $230 on $100 wagers).
After struggling immensely for the most part in the first two rounds of the playoffs, Toronto All-Stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have erupted in back-to-back home wins over Cleveland. Lowry was nothing short of sensational, scoring 35 points on 14-of-20 shooting from the field. The Villanova product hit 4-of-7 from 3-point range and also produced five rebounds, five assists and three steals. DeRozan finished with 32 points on 14-of-23 shooting. Bismack Biyombo has been terrific in the last two contests, snaring 14 rebounds while rejecting three shots.
Toronto starting center Jonas Valinciunas was available for Game 4 for the first time since spraining his ankle in Game 3 at Miami in the East semifinals. Casey opted not to play him, though, but gamblers can certainly count on seeing the big man in Game 5 at Cleveland. Valinciunas had recorded four straight double-doubles before being sidelined.
The Westgate opened Cleveland as a 10.5-point home favorite vs. Toronto in Wednesday’s Game 5 at Quicken Loans Arena. The total was 198.5 on the send-out, but the betting shop quickly moved it down to 198 points.
Doug Gottlieb said this on his show Monday: “I like Cleveland plus the points tonight. I love the Cavs at 6.5.” When his sidekick said, “ The Cavs are +6.5?” Gottlieb: “Yes.” Then after getting corrected, Gottlieb said, “That’s what I meant. I like the Cavs getting the points.” Huh? Anyway, when Gottlieb quickly looked to transition to another topic, here’s where he went: “So The Bachelor starts tonight…” Need I say more?
Tuesday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder (+1, 221.5)
The road to back-to-back championships for the Golden State Warriors ran straight into a wall in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals as the Oklahoma City Thunder dominated in a 133-105 triumph. The Warriors will try to pick themselves back up and avoid a 3-1 hole when they visit the Thunder for Game 4 on Tuesday.
Golden State was the more aggressive team in Game 2 and came away with a 118-91 victory, seemingly correcting all the mistakes that plagued the team in the second half of a Game 1 loss. Those mistakes came back in a big way in Game 3 as Oklahoma City raced past the Warriors, turning every rebound and every errant pass into an opportunity to get out in transition. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 63 points, 16 rebounds and 14 assists in the emphatic win and most importantly sliced their turnover count from 11 in Game 2 to five in Game 3. “My teammates did a great job of driving the basketball and taking the pressure off of me,” Durant told reporters. “Not letting me handle the ball as much and just taking the pressure off me, and I was trying to make the correct passes and the simple passes.
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as one-point road favorites after getting destroyed as road faves in Game 3. The line moved briefly to 1.5 Monday morning but has since returned back to the opening number. The total opened at 222 and, at the time of publication for this preview, has come down a half point to 221.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (82-13, 53-40-2 ATS, 51-43-1 O/U): Twice during their run to the 2015 title the Warriors fell behind 2-1 in a series before ultimately winning, but never were they as thoroughly crushed as they were on Sunday. “We got our butts kicked,” Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. “It doesn’t matter if (the loss was by) one point or 30. You’ve got to look at the tape and you’ve got to figure out how you can be better and then you come back with a better effort. But they were the more desperate team (Sunday), they were beating us to loose balls, to rebounds, and our quick shots just fed their transition.” Warriors All-Star Draymond Green was held to six points on 1-of-9 shooting in the loss and was whistled for a flagrant foul for kicking Oklahoma center Steven Adams in the groin in the second quarter.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (65-31, 46-49-1 ATS, 46-50 O/U): The game was knotted at 40 with under nine minutes left in the first half when Oklahoma City put its foot on the gas, outscoring the Warriors 32-7 over the rest of the half while holding the best shooting team in the NBA to 2-of-23 from the field over that span. The Thunder followed that up with a 45-point third quarter to stun the defending champs and were matter-of-fact about their dominating effort after the game. “We were able to catch the ball, drive, get to the paint and kick-out,” Durant told reporters. “We were letting the ball move and our bodies move and that helped us out.”
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Over is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 home games.
* Home team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oklahoma City.
CONSENSUS: As usual, the Warriors are picking up the majority of the betting action even as after getting beaten so badly in Game 3. 61 percent of the Consensus picks are on the Dubs. Currently, 69 percent of the wagers are on the Over.
OKC seeks 3-1 series lead
By Sportsbook.ag
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (82-13) at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (65-31)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -1.5, Total: 221.5
The Warriors will be hoping to prevent a 3-1 series deficit when they face the Thunder in Game 4 on Tuesday.
Golden State was the most dominant team in regular season history, but the team now finds itself in serious trouble in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors were absolutely embarrassed on Sunday night, losing 133-105 as 2.5-point favorites in Game 3. They shot a miserable 41.3% from the floor in that loss, but they also allowed the Thunder to make 50.0% of their shots. The Warriors will need to be a lot better on both ends of the floor in Tuesday’s Game 4 or they’ll be facing an insurmountable 3-1 series deficit.
One thing that bodes well for Golden State is the fact that the team is 10-2 ATS revenging a loss versus an opponent this season. The team is also 18-8 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a favorite versus an opponent over the past two seasons. Both teams will be entering this game at full strength, so hopefully injuries will not play a role in the outcome of this game.
If the Warriors are going to get back into this series then PF Draymond Green (16.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 6.5 APG, 2.1 BPG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) will need to play well for the Warriors. He has been miserable in this series and truly hit rock bottom last game, scoring just six points on 1-for-9 shooting from the field. Green also had just four boards and three assists and his team is counting on him to post a near triple-double. He’ll also need to keep his cool in this game, as Green is a flagrant foul away from an automatic suspension.
PG Stephen Curry (25.3 PPG, 5.6 APG, 5.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) is also going to need to step his game up moving forward. The regular season MVP has been lousy for Golden State, shooting just 7-for-17 from the field and 3-for-11 from the outside in Game 3. He had 24 points in the game, but that total was a bit misleading and he must find a way to be more efficient the rest of the series. It’d be wise for Steve Kerr to put the ball in his hands a lot more in Game 4.
The Thunder have been playing extremely well in the postseason and look like the better team in this series. The reason Oklahoma City has emerged with a 2-1 series lead has been because of the emergence of SF Kevin Durant (27.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.3 APG in playoffs). It was not long ago that Durant was considered the best player in the NBA and he has been playing like it throughout the postseason. He had 33 points on 10-for-15 shooting from the field in Game 3 and will need to continue to be aggressive moving forward. The Warriors have no match for him and his jumper is better than ever right now.
It has also helped the Thunder that PG Russell Westbrook (25.3 PPG, 11.1 APG, 2.2 SPG in playoffs) has outplayed Curry in this series. Westbrook had 30 points, 12 assists, eight rebounds and two steals in Game 3 of this series and his athleticism and speed have given the Warriors a ton of issues. He’ll need to keep attacking the rim the remainder of this series.