NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, May 2nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Washington bench was -43 in Game 1 loss, where both teams shot over 50% from floor; Wizards were +7 in 11:00 Morris played- his loss hurt. Wizards lost last five games in this building (0-5 vs spread)- they lost four of last five road games overall- over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Boston has now won five games in row since being down 2-0 to Chicago; they’re 3-3 vs spread in last six home games- under is 3-2 in their last five games. Celtics were 19-39 on arc in Game 1; four of their last five games stayed under the total.
Golden State is still without coach Kerr; they swept Portland in last series by total of 72 points. Warriors won seven of last eight games with Utah (5-3 vs spread); under is 5-0-1 in last six series games. Jazz won last visit here April 10, game that meant lot more to them than Golden State. Utah won Game 7 in LA Sunday, has quick turnaround here; they won four of last five road games, are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games overall. Warriors won their last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven home tilts. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games overall.
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics (-5.5, 218.5)
ABOUT THE WIZARDS (53-36 SU, 45-43-1 ATS, 55-33-1 O/U): The Washington Wizards jumped out to a big lead early in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals but quickly fell off the pace and now find themselves in an early hole in the best-of-seven series. Washington jumped out to a 16-0 lead and was ahead 38-24 at the end of the first quarter but watched that lead evaporate in the second quarter and disappear entirely in the third as it was outscored 71-42 in the middle two periods. Washington lost a big piece when starting power forward Markieff Morris went down in the first half of Game 1 with an ankle injury after landing on Al Horford's foot while drawing a foul. "He was in a lot of pain," star point guard John Wall, who collected 20 points and 16 assists in the loss, told reporters. "We were just hoping it wasn't his knee. He has an issue kind of spraining his ankles all the time, but we told him, 'if you don't shoot the free throw you can't come back in,' and he was just trying to get his space and take as much time as he needed." Morris, who hit the free throw before leaving the game, insisted after the contest that he would play Game 2 but others were skeptical after he was seen noticeably limping and reportedly struggled to put on his shoe over the swollen left ankle.
ABOUT THE CELTICS (58-31 SU, 45-42-2 ATS, 43-42-4 O/U): The Celtics used that ball pressure to drive into the lane and kick the ball out to open shooters while going 19-of-39 from 3-point range. Center Al Horford hit one 3-pointer as part of a 10-of-13 afternoon and helped direct the attack while finishing just shy of a triple-double with 21 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds. Boston star Isaiah Thomas flew home to Tacoma, Wash., on Saturday for his sister's funeral and flew back across the country in time for the game, during which he delivered 33 points. "I mean, it's tough but it's the playoffs," Thomas told reporters. There's no excuses. I decided to play and I just tried to give it all I got for my team, and we came out with the win." Thomas, who had a tooth knocked out after running into an elbow early in Game 1, added nine assists and buried five of the Celtics' 19 3-pointers.
LINE HISTORY: The Celtics opened as 5.5-point favorites for Game 2 and that number has yet to move. The total opened at 219 and came down slightly to 218.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Wizards - PF M. Morris (Probable, ankle), C I. Mahinmi (Out Indefinitely, calf).
Celtics - PG I. Thomas (Probable, teeth).
TRENDS:
* Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Wizards last 5 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.
* Wizards are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston.
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors (-13.5, 206.5)
ABOUT THE JAZZ (55-34 SU, 41-44-4 ATS, 45-44 O/U): The upstart Jazz received a stellar series performance from All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward while slaying the Clippers to give the franchise its first playoff series win since 2010. Hayward averaged 23.7 points in the series against the Clippers, including a career-best 40 in Game 3, despite being sent home at halftime of Game 4 due to food poisoning. Utah will require another stellar effort from the pending free agent for it to have any chance of upsetting the powerful Warriors. "You can see his confidence out there," Snyder told reporters of Hayward. "He's played through missed shots, contact, hot streaks, you name it. He's handled that with poise, and he's a heck of an offensive player. He's so versatile that he's hard to guard, and we try to use him in a way that allows him to shine in those situations."
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (71-15 SU, 43-40-3 ATS, 35-51 O/U): The Golden State Warriors have been resting and the top-seeded team in the Western Conference plays for the first time in eight days when it opens the conference semifinals against the Utah Jazz on Tuesday. Golden State coach Steve Kerr (back surgery complications) is expected to miss the series and it will be up to acting coach Mike Brown to get his players focused, as several of them were chirping that they would have rather played the Clippers than the Jazz due to the lack of nightlife in Utah. Point guard Stephen Curry averaged 29.8 points and made 19 3-pointers in the sweep of Portland and he averaged 26.3 points in three regular-season meetings against the Jazz. Shooting guard Klay Thompson averaged just 18.3 points on 38.8 percent shooting against the Trail Blazers and registered just one 20-point outing.
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as huge 13-point favorites and that wasn't enough for the public as, by Monday afternoon, the line was bumped to -13.5. The total opened at 208 and was dropped slightly to 206.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Jazz - PF D. Favors (Questionable, back), SG A. Burks (Out Indefinitely, knee).
Warriors - SF M. Barnes (Probable, ankle), PG S. Livingston (Questionable, finger), SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).
TRENDS:
* Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Warriors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Jazz last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 Conference Semifinals games.
* Jazz are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Eastern Conference Semifinals – Game 2
Washington at Boston
After falling behind 16-0 from the opening tip and trailing 38-24 after the first quarter, the Celtics weathered the storm and rallied for a 123-111 win over the Wizards in Game 1 this past Sunday from TD Garden.
Washington was on fire in the first quarter, connecting on 16-of-26 attempts (61.5%) from the field. The Wizards had a decent second as well and carried a 64-59 lead into the half but the third quarter was a nightmare for the visitors. After dropping 35 in the second, Boston came out with a 36-spot in the third and built a 15-point (95-80) lead heading into the final stanza.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia felt the Wizards fell apart early in the second quarter due to an injury at a very inopportune time.
He explained, “Markieff Morris' availability will determine how well-equipped the Wizards are to even this series, and early indications are he won’t be at 100 percent. Washington led 45-42 when Morris' foot landed on Al Horford's and his ankle rolled significantly, forcing his exit. Not surprisingly, he was a plus-7 for the game and was missed since his size keeps Boston from comfortably playing small like it was then able to.”
Boston covered as a 4½-point home favorite in Game 1 and with that result, the home team is now 5-0 both straight up and against the spread in the five meetings between the pair this season.
The Celtics opened as five-point favorites for Game 2 and Mejia believes the Wizards have a solid shot to even up the series unless Boston lights it up again offensively.
“The Wizards have struggled on the road all season, but took a positive step forward by pulling out a win in a close-out game in Atlanta in Round 1 last week. They couldn't hold a 16-0 lead on Sunday, but were able to execute offensively and fell victim to the Celtics knocking down 19 3-pointers. Jae Crowder hit a career-high six 3s on just eight attempts, so Scott Brooks will have to gamble that he can't possibly stay that hot,” said Mejia.
Boston hit 51.1 percent of its shots and only got to the free throw line 15 times and they converted on 12 of them. Crowder finished with 24 on Sunday and was one of five Celtics to post double figures. Isaiah Thomas led the team with 33 points and nine assists.
Washington shot 10-of-23 from the 3-point land and both Bradley Beal (27 points) and John Wall (20 points, 16 assists) has solid efforts in the opener. Despite the injury to Morris, the Wizards controlled the paint with a plus-11 rebound edge (55-44) and they outscored the frontcourt of the Celtics by 16 points (54-38).
Including Sunday’s effort, Washington is averaging 112.4 points per game against Boston this season but that won’t matter if the Celtics fill it up again from the outside.
The Celtics are slowly earning money for bettors again at home with wins and covers in their last two games from TD Garden. Prior to the back-to-back victories, Boston was mired in a 1-8 ATS skid as a home favorite.
Mejia mentioned Washington’s struggles on the road and the numbers are very hard to ignore. Including Sunday’s loss, the Wizards are 9-21 SU as a road ‘dog this season but they did cover five of those losses (14-16 ATS).
The Zig-Zag theory wasn’t exactly a great bet in the first-round of the playoffs, especially in Game 2 where we watched six of the eight series produce 2-0 leads. With that being said, Mejia believes Washington is still in a good spot come Tuesday.
He said, “Although the Celtics are 34-0 when they go up 2-0 in a series, Game 2 is by no means a must-win for Washington. For starters, most of the Boston teams that have built that record up are far superior to this one. With the Wizards headed home afterward, they'll be favored in Game 3 given their 32-11 record at the Phone Booth, which includes an eight-game winning streak. If anything, there's more pressure on a Celtics squad that is just 2-2 at home this postseason to hold serve, particularly if Morris sits.”
The ‘over’ (216) cashed easily in Game 1 and the number was juiced up to 219 for Game 2 but has settled at 218½ as of Monday evening. Washington has seen the ‘over’ go 4-2-1 in the playoffs while Boston has watched the ‘under’ go 4-3 but all three tickets to the high side came at home.
The series heads back to Washington on Thursday for Game 3.
Western Conference Semifinals - Game 1
Utah at Golden State
2016-17 Regular Season (Warriors 2-1)
Dec. 8 Warriors (-11.5) 106 at Jazz 99 (Under 208)
Dec. 20 Warriors (-12.5) 104 vs. Jazz 74 (Under 210.5)
Apr. 10 Jazz (+10.5) at Warriors 99 (Under 205.5)
This matchup will pit Golden State’s league-leading offense (115.9) against Utah’s top-ranked defense (96.8 PPG) and the oddsmakers aren’t giving much of a chance to the latter in this best-of-seven series.
Golden State hasn’t played since last Wednesday when it complete a four-game sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round. The Warriors covered three of those games and the offense lit up Portland for 119.5 PPG and the production was better at the Moda Center (123.5 PPG) despite playing with a limited roster too.
All-Star Kevin Durant only played in two of the games while Shaun Livingston sat out three games and Matt Barnes didn’t suit up for any of the series due to injuries. Barnes is upgraded to ‘probable’ for Tuesday but Livingston remains ‘questionable’ for Game 1. Durant is expected to get more minutes after being monitored versus Portland.
While Golden State was resting, Utah was gaining confidence this past Sunday as it defeated the Clippers 104-91 on the road in Game 7 of the first round. It was the franchise’s first postseason victory since 2010 and what stood out is that three of their four wins occurred at the Staples Center.
Fast forward to Tuesday and the oddsmakers aren’t expecting Utah to keep its momentum going as it heads to the Bay Area.
Golden State opened as a 13-point favorite over Utah and that’s been a common theme amongst the pair. The Jazz weren’t listed as double-digit underdogs in any other games this season except for its three games versus Golden State.
Including those three regular season matchups listed above, the Warriors have won 13 of the past 15 meetings against the Jazz and they’ve covered nine of those wins, which is very impressive considering they were giving 10-plus points in nine of those games.
Does Utah have any shot to pull off the monumental upset or at least keep it within the number?
Mejia chimed in with his thoughts on the series.
“The Jazz have to hope that a full week between games will result in some rust for the Warriors, even though that seems unlikely. Golden State didn't start its usual lineup until Game 1 of the Blazers series and then wasn't able to turn back to it until Game 4, so the chances they won't be ready to go after a week of practices and treatment for those who were banged up are slim. Utah may have a mental edge in being better engaged, coming off such a dominant performance in a do-or-die situation, but that will only carry them so far on the road against the fresher, more talented team,” said Mejia.
“The question then becomes, can Utah cover the spread and put forth a competitive series? That will depend on the effectiveness of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, neither of whom are 100 percent. If their size can wear down Draymond Green and help teammates find easy buckets against a defense that has been tremendous for months, with and without Durant, the Jazz may hang around longer than most expect them to. If the game is too fast for them, Golden State will break out the brooms again.”
The ‘under’ went 3-0 between the pair this season and is 8-6-1 in the last 15 encounters. While Utah was able to drop triple digits on Los Angeles in three games of their first round series, the club has been held under 100 points in 10 of the last 15 meetings against Golden State the last five seasons.
Bettors believing Utah can pull off the series upset can take a shot with a generous odds listed as high as 20/1 (Bet $100 to win 20) at Sportsbook.ag. For those expecting Golden State to advance to its third straight conference finals, it will cost you a healthy price of minus-10000 which means every $100 wagered brings you back one dollar.
Exact game odds are also available and the top two choices are expecting Golden State to sweep (6/5) or close out the Jazz in five games (5/4).
Game 2 will be played from the Bay Area on Thursday.