NBA Knowledge
Miami-Toronto
Miami lost four of last five games with Toronto, losing last three games in Canada by 8ot-20-10 points- under is 3-1 in last four games played in Toronto. Home side won seven of last nine series games. Heat lost three of last four road games; their last five games stayed under total, as have seven of last eight Raptor games. Toronto won last three home games by 5-3-11 points. Both teams won Game 7's Sunday- this game could ba a little sluggish, so soon after those win-or-go home games. .
Portland-Golden State
In 10 quarters since Curry hurt his knee, Warriors are +72; they've won seven of last eight against Portland, covered nine of last 11. Trailblazers are 0-5 vs spread last five times they came to Oakland. Blazers are 7-4 in last 11 games, with six of last nine staying under the total. Golden State won eight of last ten games, covered seven of last eight- under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Warriors raced out to 37-17 first quarter lead, then coasted from there to win Game 1 by 12.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 3-1, over: 2-2
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors
On Sunday the Raptors did what they hadn't done since 2001, advance to the Conference Semifinals with an 89-84 Game 7 win over the Indiana Pacers. Next up, a date with Miami Heat Tuesday at the Air Canada Centre.
Doesn't get easier for Toronto with its offensive woes during round-one scoring just 99.0 points per 100 possesions and at times, defensive struggles that allowed Pacers to net 103.4 points per 100 possesions. Now, Raptors face a solid Heat team that sported the third best Eastern Conference offense (105.3) and defense (101.5) efficiency rating during regular season. Matching that, during round-one Heat netted 106.5 points per 100 possession while allowing the opponent 96.4 per 100 possessions.
Raptors holding the advantage in four meetings this season posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record along with it's solid 35-10 (24-21 ATS) mark on home court have opened 4.5 point home favorites. Might be a touch generous, Raptors are a money-burning 4-13-1 ATS last 18 in second season.
Tuesday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Tuesday's NBA Playoffs action features the opening game of the Heat vs. Raptors series and the second game between the Blazers and Warriors. We break down all the action so you can cap the games like a pro.
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors (-4.5, 191)
The Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat both had more trouble in the first round than they intended and ended up battling through seven games to reach the Eastern Conference semifinals. Neither team will have had much time to prepare when the Raptors host the Heat in Game 1 on Tuesday.
Miami looked unstoppable in its first two games against the Charlotte Hornets in the first round before struggling through the next four only to find its form again in a 106-73 shellacking at home in Game 7 on Sunday. “Every team faces tough times; we know those times are going to come,” Heat point guard Goran Dragic told reporters. “We have so many veteran guys; they just help you find a way when you’re going through tough times. We just had to grow as a team.” The Raptors don’t need to grow as a team as much as they need to rediscover who they were during a regular season that saw them push the Cleveland Cavaliers into the final week before settling for the No. 2 seed. Toronto nearly squandered all of a 16-point, fourth-quarter lead in Game 7 against Indiana before pulling out an 89-84 triumph and is still waiting for the shots to fall for All-Star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry.
LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as five-point favorites but the line was adjusted to -4.5 by Monday morning. The total hit the board at 191.5 and was bumped down slightly to 191. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE HEAT (52-37, 47-41-1 ATS, 36-52-1 O/U): Miami star Dwyane Wade kept his team alive with a brilliant fourth quarter in Game 6 but everyone stepped up in Game 7 with the season on the line. Dragic scored 25 points in the clincher while Hassan Whiteside, who feels that the strength the team formed in the series will help them the rest of the way in the playoffs, capped a strong series with 10 points, 12 rebounds and five blocked shots. “I really think it gave us better focus going into the second round,” Whiteside told reporters. “I remember how guys felt after we lost Game 5. Guys were down and I told them, ‘Hey, we’re going to go and steal one in Charlotte.’”
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (60-29, 47-42 ATS, 43-45-1 O/U): Toronto scrapped past the seventh-seeded Pacers despite terrible shooting slumps from Lowry (31.6 percent from the field in the series) and DeRozan (31.9), who both hit key shots down the stretch in Game 7. “My teammates count on me,” Lowry told reporters. “My teammates love me and they support me, no matter what I do. No matter what happens, they’re always going to be there, and they’re never going to doubt me.” DeRozan, who was 10-for-32 from the floor in Game 7 but knocked down the free throws at the end that sealed the win and finished 9-of-9 from the line, should be glad to see Miami, against which he averaged 29.3 points on 48.8 percent shooting in four regular season games.
TRENDS:
* Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Heat last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Under is 7-1 in Raptors last 8 overall.
* Heat are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors (-10, 213.5)
The Golden State Warriors had no problem scoring without MVP Stephen Curry in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals and put the focus on defense for most of the afternoon. The Portland Trail Blazers had no answers for the Warriors’ big bodies in the lane and on the perimeter and will try to make some changes before visiting Golden State for Game 2 on Tuesday.
The Warriors frustrated Portland guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum with a series of bigger defenders and funneled the action into the paint, where Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green were waiting. "I just told the guys that we got to come out with a defensive mindset and that's pretty much it," Green said in a postgame interview. "I think we can pretty much just stay solid and get good stuff on the offensive end, but against this team, we just got to come out with a defensive mindset when Steph's not out there." The Trail Blazers fell behind by 20 points in the first quarter and never managed to work their way back into the game before falling 118-106. “Certainly wasn’t the start we wanted,” Portland head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. “It was disappointing to get off to such a poor start. Our offense, we had trouble scoring. Their defense got into us. It was just — we struggled at both ends, and probably more so on the offensive end, which fed into their defense.”
LINE HISTORY: The spread for this one opened up at -9.5 in favor of the Warriors and was bet up to -10 by late Sunday night. The total began at 213.5 and, up until this point, hasn't moved. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (48-41, 47-42 ATS, 47-42 O/U): Portland got a break in the first round when Los Angeles Clippers stars Chris Paul and Blake Griffin went down in Game 4 and was hoping to get a jump on the Warriors before a possible return from Curry (knee) later in the series. “We got beat pretty soundly in Game 1 against the Clippers and we made some adjustments, we played a little bit better and got better as the series went along, and we need to do the same thing,” Stotts said. “So we’ll watch the video, see what we can come up with for Game 2. But there’s no question that we have to play better and learn from Game 1 like we did with the Clippers.” Lillard finished with 30 points but struggled to 8-of-26 from the field while McCollum managed 12 points on 5-of-17 shooting.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (78-10, 50-36-2, 47-40-1 O/U): Klay Thompson buried seven 3-pointers en route to a game-high 37 points and Green took care of almost everything else while piling up 23 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists, three blocks and a steal in 37 minutes. “I just want to play as myself and to my strengths,” Thompson told reporters. “I don’t have the handle and creativity that (Curry) does, so I’ve got to get it differently. I’ve got to use my teammates. These guys set great screens and I got in a great rhythm.” Thompson is 21-of-36 from 3-point range in the last three games – becoming the first player in NBA history with at least seven 3-pointers in three straight playoff games - and spent plenty of time chasing Lillard around on Sunday in a solid defensive performance.
TRENDS:
* Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games.
* Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Over is 7-0 in Trail Blazers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Over is 7-0 in Warriors last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
May 3, 2016
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Heat at Raptors
2015-16 Meetings
Nov. 8, 2015 – Toronto 76 at Miami 96 (Heat -2.5, Under 191.5)
Dec. 18, 2015 – Toronto 108 at Miami 94 (Raptors +4.5, Over 187)
Jan. 22, 2016 – Miami 81 at Toronto 101 (Raptors -10.5, Under 190)
Mar. 12, 2016 – Miami 104 at Toronto 112 – OT (Raptors -6.5, Over 203)
Both Miami and Toronto needed seven games each in the opening round to escape and advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Heat (52-37 SU, 47-41-1 ATS) erased a 3-2 series deficit to eliminate the feisty Hornets by winning Game 6 at Charlotte, 97-90, followed by a 106-73 blowout in Game 7 as six-point favorites. The Raptors (60-29 SU, 47-42 ATS) made it past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2001 as Toronto outlasted Indiana, 89-84 in Sunday’s Game 7, but the Pacers cashed as six-point underdogs.
Miami shot lights out in the first two games against Charlotte (123 and 115 points), but the Heat were cooled off when they headed to Charlotte by scoring 80 points in Game 3 and 85 points in Game 4. The final five games of their series finished ‘under’ the total, as the Heat limited the Hornets to 96 points or fewer in each of those contests. The Raptors failed to cover in five of the seven games against the Pacers, including an 0-4 ATS mark in the last four contests. For the exception of Toronto’s monster rally in Game 5 to eclipse the ‘over,’ the other six games in the series went ‘under’ the total.
The Raptors captured three of four meetings from the Heat this season, while winning five of the last seven matchups since the start of the 2014-15 campaign. The lone victory by the Heat over the Raptors this season came in the first matchup in early November, 96-76 as 2½-point home favorites. Toronto led Miami by two points at halftime, but the Heat outscored the Raptors, 30-16 in the third quarter to pull away. The Raptors shot 39% by the floor, as the backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan combined to shoot 9-of-30 from the field.
The two teams met one month later again in South Florida, but the Raptors picked up revenge by outscoring the Heat by 19 points in the second half of a 108-94 triumph as 4½-point underdogs. Lowry and DeRozan put up 51 points between them, while the Raptors scorched the Heat by knocking down 51% of its attempts from the floor. Dwyane Wade led the Heat with 21 points, while Miami received an unexpected 20 points off the bench from Gerald Green, which included five three-pointers.
The Raptors grabbed both matchups at the Air Canada Center, as Toronto crushed Miami, 101-81 to easily cash as 10½-point favorites. Former Raptor All-Star Chris Bosh scored a team-high 26 points for the Heat, but Miami couldn’t overcome Toronto drilling 13 three-pointers. The Raptors picked up a front-door cover in the final meeting in March by covering as 6½-point favorites in a 112-104 victory over the Heat. DeRozan lit up the Heat by tallying a game-high 38 points, while Wade missed the game due to injury.
Toronto owned the second-best home record in the Eastern Conference at 32-9 in the regular season, closing with a 7-3 ATS record in the final 10 games. However, Dwane Casey’s club is 1-3 ATS at the Air Canada Center in the postseason, as the Raptors own a 1-5 ATS record in its past six home playoff games since 2015. The Heat struggled as a road underdog since the All-Star break by compiling a 2-8 ATS record in the last 10 opportunities, but did cover in Game 6 in the last round at Charlotte.
VegasInsider.com editorial director and NBA expert Chris David breaks down the Game 1 total, “The ‘under’ went 30-13 in the first round of the NBA playoffs and both the Raptors (6-1) and Heat (5-2) helped contribute to that mark with plenty of tickets going to the low side. The total for Game 1 opened at 191½ and that’s the second lowest number that we’ve seen during this year’s postseason. Both teams will be playing their third game in five nights and neither club has much fire power off the bench, which makes me believe that we could see an ugly game on Tuesday.”
Blazers at Warriors
Golden State continued to roll even with Stephen Curry sidelined, as the top-seeded Warriors cruised past the Blazers in Sunday’s second round opener, 118-106 to cash as 9½-point favorites. Steve Kerr’s team jumped out to a 37-17 advantage after one quarter, highlighted by a 37-point performance from shooting guard Klay Thompson. All five Golden State starters put up double-figures, while Draymond Green posted a triple-double with 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists.
Even though Damian Lillard scored a team-high 30 points for Portland, the All-Star guard shot 8-of-26 from the floor, while the Blazers hit 40% of their attempts from the floor. Lillard’s backcourt mate C.J. McCollum failed to hit a three-pointer in four tries, while shooting 5-of-17 from the field for 12 points.
Portland has dropped 10 consecutive road playoff games in the role of an underdog since 2014, while compiling an 0-9-1 ATS mark in this span. The Blazers have won once away from the Moda Center in this stretch, coming in Game 5 at Staples Center in the last round against the beat-up Clippers as a short favorite.
Golden State has performed well in the playoffs against the number so far by going 5-1 ATS with the only loss coming in Game 3 of the opening round at Houston. The Warriors have finished ‘under’ the total in four of six postseason contests, while allowing at least 100 points twice, as Golden State has cashed the ‘under’ each time they limit an opponent to below 100 points.
David believes the Warriors won’t have it as easy tonight, “It’s hard to make a case for Portland on the road but I’d be hesitant to back Golden State in Game 2, especially since it’s now a double-digit favorite. I don’t expect the Warriors to drop this game, knowing they’ve gone 30-2 at Oracle Arena this season when laying 10-plus points. However, the club is 16-16 ATS and that makes this game a toss-up to me plus Golden State had Curry playing in 31 of those games. In the first round, Houston put up a better effort in Game 2 versus the Warriors but still wound up losing. I expect Portland to rebound in this spot and grabbing the points is worth a look.”
All five matchups between the Blazers and Warriors flew ‘over’ the total, as Golden State has scored at least 118 points against Portland four times this season. The Blazers have dropped seven of the past eight visits to Oracle Arena since 2013, while six of those games have been decided by double-digits.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Heat at Raptors (-4.5, 190.5)
Toronto went 3-1 SU against Miami this season, including 2-0 at home. However, Miami is a different team now, especially on offense as they were the most improved unit since the All-Star break. Despite winning their series against Indiana, the Raptors were actually out-scored in those seven games. Toronto shared that feat with Portland, and the Trail Blazers lost Game 1 to the Warriors by 12 points. Miami is also off a grueling 7-game series, and that keeps me off the Heat in Game 1 of this series against Toronto.
Trail Blazers at Warriors (-9.5, 212.5)
Golden State handled Portland easily in Game 1 as they won by a misleading 12 points (118-106). The Warriors were up 20 points after the first quarter, and they simply cruised the rest of the game while the Trail Blazers out-scored them by 8 points in the fourth quarter. This was the highest scoring series in the NBA this season with 965 total points scored in four regular season games (241 points per game). Stephen Curry remains out, but Game 1 still sailed Over the total with 224 points scored. This should be another high-scoring game tonight, however the oddsmakers have adjusted this total several points higher.
Tuesday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
MIAMI HEAT (52-37) at TORONTO RAPTORS (60-29)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Toronto -4.5, Total: 191.5
The Raptors will be looking to take a 1-0 series lead when they host the Heat in Game 1 on Tuesday.
Both the Heat and the Raptors are coming into this series after winning at home in their respective Game 7s. Miami dismantled Charlotte, winning 106-73 as a 6.5-point favorite. The Heat shot 48.3% from the field in that game and they also held the Hornets to a miserable 32.1% shooting. They’ll be hoping some of that momentum carries over into this Game 1 on Tuesday.
The Raptors, meanwhile, are coming off of an 89-84 victory as six-point favorites against the Pacers. Toronto shot just 38.2% from the field in that game and nearly choked it away as well. That does not matter for the team, though. They had not won a playoff series since 2001, so any victory was going to be extremely satisfying. One thing worth noting is that these teams met four times during the regular season and the Raptors went 3-1 both SU and ATS in those contests. Toronto is also going to be confident coming into this one, as the team is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover in four of its past five games this season.
PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) remains out indefinitely for the Heat, but nobody else is expected to miss this game for either team.
The Heat are coming off of a blowout victory over the Hornets and they’ll now be hoping to steal Game 1 in Toronto on Tuesday. SG Dwyane Wade (19.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) is going to need to be on his game in this series. He’ll have a tough matchup with DeMar DeRozan and he can’t afford to be outplayed drastically. It’s important that Wade maintains confidence in his jumper, as he’ll need to knock down a few in this series.
PG Goran Dragic (14.1 PPG, 4.1 APG in playoffs) will also need to be on top of his game on Tuesday. Dragic was outstanding in Game 7, finishing with 25 points, six boards, four assists and a block in 32 minutes of action. It was his best game of the postseason and he’ll now need to stay aggressive in a matchup with his former teammate, Kyle Lowry.
One last guy that will be counted on heavily is C Hassan Whiteside (13.1 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 3.4 BPG in playoffs). Whiteside had five blocks in Game 7 and Miami will need him to continue to own the paint defensively moving forward. His matchup with Jonas Valanciunas will be an exciting one and Whiteside will need to use his athleticism to his advantage.
The x-factor in this game just might be PF Luol Deng (19.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG in playoffs), though. Deng is shooting 51.3% from the outside in the playoffs and has been incredible defensively. If he can continue to play solid two-way basketball then the Heat are going to be tough to beat moving forward.
The Raptors barely escaped the first round, but that was something that the team needed to do. Toronto had failed to win a playoff series since 2001 and now has a giant weight lifted off of its shoulders. One guy that will need to step it up in the second round is PG Kyle Lowry (13.9 PPG, 7.6 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs). Lowry has really struggled in the playoffs, shooting just 31.6% from the floor and 16.3% from the outside. That poor shooting from the outside wouldn’t be a major issue, but he is taking 6.1 threes per game. Lowry needs to either start making them or stop taking them as often.
SG DeMar DeRozan (17.9 PPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs) should be feeling very confident for Toronto coming into this Game 1. DeRozan came up big in Game 7 last round, finishing with 30 points, five boards, three steals and two blocks in 40 minutes of action. He’ll need to use his quickness to really give Dwyane Wade issues on both ends of the floor. It’s also important that his jumper starts to fall, though. Like Lowry, DeRozan has struggled from the floor and is shooting just 31.9% from the field in the playoffs. That number must go up and it must do so soon.
C Jonas Valanciunas (13.6 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) is going to also be extremely important for the Raptors in Game 1 and this entire series. Valanciunas is a monster around the rim, but he’s going to need to find a way to stay effective on both ends of the floor against the insanely athletic Hassan Whiteside.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (48-41) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (78-10)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -10.0, Total: 213
The Warriors will be looking to take a 2-0 series lead when they host the Blazers in Game 2 on Tuesday.
Golden State has looked dominant throughout the postseason and the team hasn’t even been playing at full strength. The Warriors hosted the Blazers in Game 1 of this series and won 118-106 as 9.5-point favorites. Golden State has now won-and-covered in seven of its past eight games and five of those contests were in the postseason. The Warriors have also shot 45.0% or better from the field in nine of their past 13 games. They are going to be unbeatable if they continue to shoot the ball this well moving forward.
One thing that does favor the Blazers is the fact that they are 17-8 ATS after allowing 110 points or more this season. The Warriors, however, are 35-16 ATS after two straight wins by 10 or more over the past two seasons. They are also 14-4 ATS in home games after covering in six or seven of their past eight games over the past three seasons.
The Blazers are a far inferior team in comparison to the Warriors, so they’ll need some outstanding performances from PG Damian Lillard (23.1 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) and SG C.J. McCollum (18.6 PPG in playoffs) in order to steal a win in Game 2 of this series.
Lillard had 30 points in Game 1 on Sunday, but he was just 8-for-26 from the field and he’ll need to be a lot more efficient moving forward. The Warriors are currently playing without Stephen Curry, so Lillard should have more energy in this series. He doesn’t have to deal with chasing Curry around the floor and that should be big for Portland. Lillard must take some better shots in Tuesday’s game.
McCollum is also going to need to be a lot better and that’s the case on both ends of the floor. He did not play well defensively against Klay Thompson on Sunday and also went just 5-for-17 from the floor and 0-for-4 from the outside offensively. McCollum can’t shoot that poorly in this series, as he’s going to be relied on to step up and support Lillard. He’d be wise to get some good looks from inside the paint on Tuesday.
The Warriors are playing without Curry and the team still looks like it is an unstoppable force. The main reason for that has been the play of both SG Klay Thompson (25.7 PPG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) and PF Draymond Green (14.8 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 7.3 APG, 1.7 BPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs).
Thompson has had no problem taking over as this team’s top scorer in Curry’s absence. He had 37 points on 14-for-28 shooting in Game 1 and he’ll need to continue to let it fly until Curry is back. Thompson has a major height advantage over McCollum and that’s going to allow him to keep getting good looks at the rim in this series. Green, meanwhile, has been doing it all for the Warriors. He had 23 points, 13 boards and 11 assists in Game 1 and Golden State just needs him to continue to play his heart out in this series.
PG Shaun Livingston (13.0 PPG, 5.0 APG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs) is another guy worth mentioning. He had 12 points and six assists in Game 1 and has been doing a great job of running this offense. His size is a major problem for the Blazers’ guards, as he is a very good scorer in the post. Livingston must continue to take his patented turnaround jumpers to keep the defense honest moving forward.