NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, May 9th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Houston went 41-93 on arc in their two series wins, 20-63 in two losses; they put three starters other than Harden in double figures in Game 4- they’re so much better when they have balanced scoring. Rockets are 3-8 in last 11 games with San Antonio- they split last four visits to Alamo (3-1 vs spread). Over is 9-2 in last 11 series games, 3-1 in this playoff series. Spurs won/covered four of last five home games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games overall. All four games in this series have been decided by 11+ points. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games.
Armadillosports.com
Game 5 - Rockets at Spurs
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Although the still-unbeaten Cavaliers and Warriors are seemingly on a collision course for another date in the NBA Finals, there’s still some drama remaining in this postseason. By that, I mean that we still have two extremely competitive series that can still go either way. By the word, “seemingly,” I really mean undoubtedly unless a dude named LeBron James gets injured.
But that’s why we watch, right? Because injuries and “stuff” does happen. After all, we’ve seen players like Tony Parker, Nene and Kyle Lowry get injured in these playoffs already.
With the series knotted at 2-2, the Western Conference semifinals matchup between the Spurs and Rockets moves back to San Antonio for Tuesday’s all-so-crucial Game 5.
As of Monday night, most betting shops had San Antonio (67-25 straight up, 47-43-2 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 214.5. Gamblers can support the Rockets on the money line for a +190 return (risk $100 to win $190). For first-half wagers, the Spurs are favored by three with a total of 110 points.
Gregg Popovich’s squad has a 35-11 SU record and a 23-23 ATS mark at home this season. However, San Antonio was dealt woodshed treatment by Houston in Game 1, losing 126-99 as a six-point home ‘chalk.’ The Spurs would respond with back-to-back wins in Games 2 (121-96) and 3 (103-92) to take a 2-1 series advantage.
Houston (61-30 SU, 47-44 ATS) owns a 27-18 record both SU and ATS in its road assignments this year. Mike D’Antonio’s team avoided a three-game losing streak by crushing San Antonio 125-104 in Sunday’s Game 4 at Toyota Center. The Rockets easily took the money as five-point home favorites. The 229 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 213.5-point total.
James Harden led seven Rockets in double figures with 28 points, 12 assists, five rebounds and two steals. Eric Gordon added 22 points thanks to 6-of-9 shooting from 3-point range. Ryan Anderson and Lou Williams chipped in 13 points apiece, while Bobby Brown and Patrick Beverley scored 11 and 10, respectively.
Kawhi Leonard had 16 points, six rebounds and four assists in the losing effort. LaMarcus Aldridge contributed 16 points and five boards, while Jonathon Simmons had a team-best 17 points. Patty Mills finished with 10 points and five assists compared to one turnover.
Beverley played Game 4 with a heavy heart. As he arrived at the arena, he was informed that his grandfather had passed away. Beverley, who is from Chicago, is expected to play in Game 5.
Nene went down with a groin injury in Game 4 that has him out for the rest of the postseason. The veteran center was averaging 10.0 points and 4.7 rebounds in the playoffs. He had made 36-of-51 shots from the field (70.6%). Nene exploded for 28 points and 10 rebounds in an important Game 4 win at Oklahoma City in the opening round.
Leonard has been nothing short of sensational through 10 playoff games. He is averaging 28.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.7 steals per game. The San Diego St. product is shooting at incredible percentages from the field (54.2%), downtown (48.9%) and the free-throw line (92.9%).
Harden ranks third in the NBA in postseason scoring (30.0 PPG) and fifth in assists (8.4 APG). Clint Capela, who will get even more playing time without Nene, is third in the Association in blocked shots during the postseason (2.7 BPG).
The ‘over’ has hit a 3-1 clip in this series so far, but the ‘under’ went 3-0-1 in four regular-season meetings between these in-state adversaries.
The ‘over’ is 51-39-2 overall for the Spurs, 25-19-2 in their home games. They’ve seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their five postseason home contests.
The ‘over’ is 46-44-1 overall for the Rockets, 22-22-1 in their road outings.
The total for Game 5 opened at 216½ and quickly dropped to 214½. VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David is siding with the move, especially if you believe Houston’s outside shooting simmers down on Tuesday.
He explained, “This series is a very straightforward handicap and it comes down to the Rockets ability to make outside jumpers. They captured Game 1 with 22 bombs from downtown and rebounded in Game 4’s victory with 19 hits from 3-point land. When you’re connecting on that many triples, it’s nearly impossible to overcome because the margins are tough to make up.”
“San Antonio answered the bell in Game 2 at home and held the Rockets to 96 points after surrendering 126 in the opener. I dug up numbers after that loss and noted on VI that the Spurs only gave up 110 or more points in nine games this season. Including the setback in the opener of this series, that number jumped to 10. In the ensuing game, the Spurs held their opponents to 97.9 PPG and that’s including the aforementioned result from the second game in this series.”
David continued, “Fast forward to Tuesday and the Spurs will be starting at this situation again after allowing 125 on Sunday. Betting against Houston’s outside shooting is dangerous and when the shots are falling, all bets are off. However, the Rockets haven’t shot the ball well from 3-point land (33.4%) in the playoffs outside of the two wins in this series and it’s hard to ignore the fact that San Antonio is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in games this season after allowing 110 PPG or more.” Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Like Houston, Washington pulled even with Boston on Sunday’s in their best-of-seven Eastern semifinals series that moves back to Beantown for Wednesday’s Game 5. As of Monday night, most spots had the Celtics favored by 4.5 points with a total of 215.5. The Wizards were +160 to win outright.
Washington’s John Wall is fourth in the NBA in postseason scoring, averaging 28.8 PPG. He paces the league in assists, dishing out 11.1 helpers per contest. Wall, a one-and-done guy at Kentucky, is fourth in steals with 2.2 SPG.
The updated series prices at Sportsbook.ag are San Antonio -170, Houston +150; and Boston -145, Washington +125.
Tuesday’s NBA Playoffs Semifinals Betting Preview
Covers.com
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, 214.5)
The San Antonio Spurs have seen the Houston Rockets turn the Western Conference semifinals into a best-of-3 series and they are feeling the urgency heading into Tuesday's Game 5. Host San Antonio will need to ratchet up the intensity after Houston operated at will while evening the series at two wins apiece on Sunday night.
The third-seeded Rockets drained 19 3-pointers in the 125-104 victory and they carved up the Spurs for 68 second-half points in the impressive showing. "This is a big stage they did it on," Houston coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "We have a lot of work left, but there's no reason why we can't go down to San Antonio and repeat the performance." The second-seeded Spurs will be attempting to turn the page as Sunday's loss certainly was a mighty blow and opened the door for the Rockets. "Game 5 is a Game 7," Ginobili told reporters. "We had a great opportunity to go back to San Antonio 3-1 and in a better situation. Now it's 2-2. Game 7 - We've really got to be knowing that every possession is a game-winning possession."
LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 5.5-point home favorites for Tuesday's crucial Game 5 and that number hasn't moved. The total hit the betting board at 215 and came down slightly to 214.5 on Monday.
INJURY REPORT:
Rockets - PG P. Beverley (Probable, probable), C Nene (Out For Season, groin).
Spurs - PG T. Parker (Out For Season, quadricep).
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (61-30 SU, 47-44 ATS, 46-44-1 O/U): Houston suffered a huge blow in Game 4 as backup center Nene suffered a torn left groin - officially termed a torn adductor - and will miss the rest of the playoffs. Nene and starter Clint Capela were giving Houston solid production in the middle and the Rockets will be forced to use power forwards Montrezl Harrell and Ryan Anderson at center -- the latter being more of an outside shooter than an interior player. "Obviously I'm not a very conventional 5-man, but it also makes it difficult for the other team to figure out how to guard us with pick-and-pops or if I'm rolling to the basket or whatever it is," Anderson told reporters. "Our ability to run, we have to take those opportunities to our advantage."
ABOUT THE SPURS (67-25 SU, 47-43-2 ATS, 51-39-2 O/U): The point guard situation is a huge issue for San Antonio after the season-ending quadriceps injury suffered by veteran Tony Parker in Game 2. Rookie Dejounte Murray started the past two games and averaged five points and 1.3 assists while backup Patty Mills averaged 12.5 points and 3.5 assists but made just 8-of-21 field-goal attempts. Star small forward Kawhi Leonard scored just 16 points in Game 4 after averaging 27 over the first three games while power forward LaMarcus Aldridge is enduring a mostly quiet series by averaging 15.3 points and 6.5 rebounds.
TRENDS:
* Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
* Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 9-2 in Rockets last 11 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 overall.
* Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in San Antonio.
Rockets, Spurs battle in Game 5
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
Will we finally get a close game between Houston and San Antonio on Tuesday?
In a broad sense, the Western Conference Semifinals series between the Houston Rockets and the San Antonio Spurs has been a tight series. The series is tied at 2-2, with both Mike D’Antoni and Gregg Popovich making adjustments from game-to-game to respond to each other’s tactics. In terms of individual games, things haven’t been so close: Three of the series’ four games have been decided by over 20 points, and all of them have been decided by double-digit margins. The most recent blowout came on Sunday, when Houston bounced back from losing Games 2 and 3 to tie the series with a 125-104 victory at home in Game 4 (HOU -5). The Rockets won the same way they’ve won games all season: Shooting a ton of three-pointers and nailing a good chunk of them—they shot 19-of-43 from deep (44.2%) in Game 4. The series swings back to San Antonio for Game 5 on Tuesday, where the Spurs will be favored by the same five- or six-point spread that the home team has been given in each game of this series so far. Since 1996, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points are 53-22 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent that is coming off a win of at least 20 points over a division rival. In the same timeframe, second-round playoff games are 88-42 Over against totals of at least 210. After he injured his groin in Game 4, Houston C Nenê will miss the rest of the postseason. Rockets PG Patrick Beverley is mourning the recent death of his grandfather, but he will play in Tuesday’s game.
After injuring his ankle in the Rockets’ first-round series, SG James Harden (30.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 8.4 APG, 2.1 SPG; all player stats are in playoffs) only scored 33 total points in the first two games of this San Antonio series. He was especially bad in Game 2, shooting 3-of-17 from the floor. He took over in Game 3, scoring 43 but dishing out only five assists in the loss. He was efficient in running the offense in Game 4, scoring 28 points on 18 shots and getting five assists. Between scoring 43 in a loss and scoring 20 in a win, it seems like Harden’s performance is not necessarily what is deciding games for this team. Rather, it’s the performances of his supporting cast. Look at Games 3 and 4: In G3, SG Eric Gordon (13.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG), SG Lou Williams (13.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG) and PF Ryan Anderson (9.3 PPG, .0 RPG) shot 3-of-18 from the field and 1-of-9 from three-point land for a grand total of 11 points. Things turned around for the trey-happy trio in Game 4, as they scored 48 points on 19-of-39 shooting and 10-of-21 three-point shooting. Gordon had the best night of the bunch, scoring 22 points on 8-of-13 shooting and 6-of-9 three-point shooting. With Nenê (10.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG) out, increased pressure will be put on C Clint Capela (10.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to log big minutes on the interior. Houston has an undersized bench, with PF Montrezl Harrell (1.3 PPG, 1.3 RPG) being the only other big who is likely to see the floor—and even he might not.
For the Spurs, their loss in Game 4 mirrored the blowout that they suffered a week earlier in Game 1. That applies on both ends of the floor: On defense, San Antonio found themselves unable to stop three-point barrages from the Houston wings in both games. And on offense, SF Kawhi Leonard (28.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.7 SPG) was unable to carry the scoring load. He was efficient in 7-of-14 shooting in Game 4, but his 16 points were inadequate in a lineup in which he is the only premier scorer. (That is now especially true that PG Tony Parker [15.9 PPG, 3.1 APG] is out for the playoffs.) It was the same deal in Game 1, when he scored 21 points on 5-of-14 shooting and was still the only Spur to score more than 11 points. That wasn’t quite the case in G4, when PF LaMarcus Aldridge (15.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG) matched his 16 points. Aldridge had his best game of the playoffs when he scored 28 points in Game 3, but he has otherwise been notably quiet in the postseason as the team’s supposed No. 2 scorer. Also of note was his paltry five rebounds in G4, and the fact that his -19 plus/minus was the worst on the team. PGs Dejounte Murray (3.2 PPG) and Patty Mills (10.0 PPG) combined for 18 points, while SG Danny Green (6.9 PPG, 1.0 BPG) managed only three. SG Jonathon Simmons (7.4 PPG) continued a strong series with a team-high 17 points in 23 minutes off the bench.
Tuesday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Houston vs. San Antonio – Game 5
There aren't too many people out there that are surprised this series is tied at two games apiece entering Game 5 as many expected this to be one of the best early round series' of the playoffs.
Getting both teams to win once on the road did throw a wrinkle in those projections, but it's boiled down to a best-of-three now with the Spurs holding home court advantage once again. What may be the most surprising though is the fact that all the games have been decided by 10+ points in this series, rendering the point spread obsolete.
Pick the outright winner and the spread won't matter, although that could change a bit over these next few games.
With a 3-2 series lead on the line and the point spread being obsolete, I'm not about to dig deep into who should come out on top tonight. The Spurs at home definitely have the advantage, but in Houston's two victories in the series, if they start feeling it from deep early on, they could end up running away with things.
Houston's great offense and their sub-par defense have led to three of the four games going 'over' in this series with relative ease, but with tonight being a huge swing game for both sides, I expect one of those to regress a bit, while the other improves slightly.
Playing strong defense in the NBA is basically about two things: communication and energy. Guys will often mail it in on this side of the floor during the gruelling regular season, but come playoff time that shouldn't be the case. Both sides have a thorough understanding of the other's play calls, how they plan to attack etc, so bringing energy and talking on that side of the floor will take precedent tonight.
In a series where the winning team has put up 120+ in three of the four games, getting that key stop or two and making things difficult for the offense in a swing Game 5 could end up being the difference in determining the winner.
On the whole, the Rockets haven't exactly played horrible defense in this series as they've held San Antonio to 99, 103, and 104 points in Games 1, 3, and 4.
Now some of those numbers could be better if the 4th quarters weren't garbage time, but for a Rockets team that allowed 109.2/game on average this year, those numbers have to be considered a 'win.' It hasn't exactly translated to winning tickets for 'under' bettors but that should change tonight.
The only 'under' in this series came in Game 3 when the series was tied at one game apiece. Similar to tonight, that was a critical swing game in the series, and both teams showed up to play in their own end. San Antonio's season-long stifling defense held Houston to just 36.4% from the field, and nobody other than James Harden could really get going.
Houston didn't do too bad either in slowing down the Spurs as it was only Leonard and Aldrdige that had big scoring days, and when that's the case, Houston's got to like their chances of success if they shoot anywhere decent numbers.
But their last outing in Spurs country (Game 2) resulted in them ending with 96 points – a number that's basically right on the Spurs average for the year.
So tonight we've got another swing game with the series deadlocked and chances are it resembles Game 3's scoring line in terms of total points. VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show over 80% of the bets on this total coming in on the high side as many don't want to step in front of what has been a very high -scoring series.
But there may be no better spot then tonight's Game 5 to go against the grain and look at the 'under' as neither team has had consistent success in this series solely relying on their ability to make shots. Creating easy looks off defensive stops is how both of these teams thrive, and with tonight's game being so critical to the success of moving on.
The winner of Game 5 in a series tied 2-2 has tremendous numbers backing them to move on throughout history, and no matter which team it is tonight, chances are it will be tight.
Best Bet: Houston/San Antonio Under 216