NBA: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat
The defending Champion Miami Heat upended 111-110 on home court as 13-point favorite by Celtics last time out will be feeling pretty good about their chances at a bounce back victory when the Milwaukee Bucks pay a visit to American Airlines Arena on Tuesday. The Heat sweeping Bucks' in last years Conference Quarterfinals (3-1 ATS), winning 3-of-4 (2-2 ATS) during regular season have now won 11-of-15 (8-7 ATS) encounters with Milwaukee in the LeBron, Wade, Bosh era. Will Heat get their bounce back victory, the answer is easily yes. Whether it translates into an NBA point-spread victory is another question. According to research Heat find themselves in dangerous betting territory. Since the 'Three Amigos' got together back in 2010 the Heat are 15-17 ATS as home chalk after a SU/ATS favorite loss the previous game, 3-7 ATS at home after allowing => 105 points the previous game, 13-16 ATS following a game in which they shot =>55.0 % from the floor, 0-3 ATS after a one point exact loss. The NBA database has also unearth this betting gem that points to Heat having trouble covering. Since the 2010 campaign Heat are a sluggish 4-15 ATS as a home favorite during the month of November.
NBA Point Spreads and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS - Check the NBA rankings of how teams have done against-the-spread and you’ll see the Sacramento Kings (0-5-1), Cleveland Cavaliers (1-7), Memphis Grizzlies (1-6) and Utah Jazz (1-6-1) at the bottom. Right above those struggling teams? The world champion Miami Heat, with a 2-5 ATS record.
Obviously the Heat are considerably better than those teams, but the point spread is the great equalizer, and a team’s ATS record is an indication of how it does against the expectations placed upon it.
This season, Miami covered its home opener against the Bulls, a game the Heat got motivated for as their NBA Championship banner was raised. They failed to cover their next three, losing two outright on the road. Then, they won and covered at Toronto, but failed to cover their last two.
Three times the Heat have been double-digit favorites, and all three times they’ve failed to cover. In fact, they’ve lost two of those games outright, including last Saturday night as a 13-point favorite to the lowly Celtics.
LeBron James has been dealing with back issues, but the two days off should help and he’s far from the real problem in Miami (he’s shot 61.7 percent over his last four games). As a team, Miami has shot 51 percent from the field, but the defense is allowing opponents to shoot 47 percent and the Heat are getting outrebounded by an average of 40-33.
LeBron on Heat defense: 'We've been playing like s---'
In theory, the Heat should still blow out the Bucks tonight. But that theory has been tried and tested, and for whatever reason, the Heat, off back-to-back championship seasons, just don’t seem motivated for November basketball. The Bucks may appear to be the perfect team for the Heat to take some frustrations out on, considering Miami swept Milwaukee in the first round of the playoffs last season and have won six straight over them, covering the number in five of those games.
The Bucks also have all kinds of injury issues right now, part of the reason the Heat are still favored by 14.5-points, but they still have O.J, Mayo putting up 18 points a night, Gary Neal (13.6 ppg) and Caron Butler (12.6 ppg), which has at least kept them competitive. The Bucks have covered three of their five games this season, including both on the road.
The Linemakers lean: Until we see the Heat cover a big number, and as long as big numbers keep showing up on their games, we'll keep taking the points against them. Bucks +14.5 is the play.
Bucks at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (-14, 196)
The defending champion Miami Heat are having a tough time closing out victories, a trend they'll try to end when they host the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Miami has lost three of its first seven games - by a combined six points - and are coming off a 111-110 loss to Boston. The Heat won three of four meetings last season and have claimed four of the last five.
The Bucks have stumbled out of the gate too often, trailing by 16 and 25 at halftime of their last two road games and falling behind by 18 early in the third quarter of Saturday's 91-83 home loss to Dallas. "I'm tired of playing comeback basketball," Milwaukee coach Larry Drew told reporters. "I really am. It just takes too much out of you." The Heat have gotten typically strong production from LeBron James (24.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 8 assists) despite a nagging back problem but have struggled at the defensive end.
ABOUT THE BUCKS (2-3): Milwaukee isn't burning it up at the offensive end, but the Bucks are hitting from long range, ranking second in the league at 43.6 percent from 3-point range. Newcomer O.J. Mayo (18.6 points) leads four players averaging double-digit scoring, but the Bucks are short-handed in the post with forward Ersan Ilyasova sidelined with a sore ankle and defensive whiz Larry Sanders out following surgery on his right thumb. Even without Sanders' shot-blocking prowess, the Bucks have been one of the league's better defensive teams, holding opponents to 96 points per game and 44.3 percent shooting.
ABOUT THE HEAT (4-3): Miami has topped 100 points all seven games, the longest streak to start a season in franchise history, and leads the league in shooting at a 51.6 percent clip. James, Dwyane Wade (20.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists) and Chris Bosh (18.5 points, 6.7 rebounds) are all putting up big numbers. Things haven't been so rosy at the other end, though, as the Heat suffered a defensive lapse in the second half against Boston, allowing the Celtics to shoot 61.9 percent and giving up a game-winning 3-pointer by Jeff Green at the buzzer.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Miami.
* Heat are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Wade needs four blocks to tie Dennis Johnson (675) for the most in NBA history by a guard 6-foot-4 or shorter.
2. Bucks F Carlos Delfino announced on his personal website Sunday that his foot injury will require additional surgery and he is likely to miss the entire season.
3. James has scored in double figures in 502 consecutive games, including all 224 contests he has played for the Heat.