NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, November 15th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Cleveland won/covered five of last seven games with Toronto; four of last six series games stayed under total. Raptors lost last four visits to Cleveland (0-4 vs spread), losing games on road by 22-31-19-38 points. Toronto won six of its last seven games (over 5-2); they’re 2-0 as a road underdog this year. Cavaliers won eight of last nine games with three of last four staying under total; they’re 1-4 as a home favorite.
Miami won its last three games with Atlanta; five of last six series games stayed under the total. Hawks won three of last four visits to Miami- road team won five of last seven series games. Atlanta won its last four games, with last three going over total; Hawks are 2-1 on road, 1-0 as road favorite. Heat lost in Alamo last night; they’ve lost five in row, seven of last eight games. Miami is 1-4 at home, 0-2 as a home underdog.
Charlotte won its last five games with Minnesota; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Hornets won three of last four visits to Twin Cities. Charlotte lost its last two games after a 6-1 start; they are 3-1 on road, 1-1 as road favorites- over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Timberwolves are off to a 3-6 start; they’re 2-2 at home, 0-1 as a home underdog. Minnesota’s last four games all went over the total.
Portland won eight of last ten games with Chicago (7-3 vs spread); four of last five series games stayed under total. Bulls lost four of last five visits to Portland (2-3 vs spread). Chicago won three of its last four games; they’re 1-3 as a road underdog. Under is 4-1 in their road games this year. Trailblazers won five of their last six games; three of their last four went over the total. Portland is 2-2 as a home favorite.
Lakers won seven of last ten games with Brooklyn, winning last two by 6 points each; Nets did win two of last three against the Lakers in Staples Center, plus they played Clippers here last night. Brooklyn is 1-4 on road, 3-1 as road underdog; over is 3-1 in their road games. Lakers are 3-1 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite; three of their four home games stayed under the total.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Tuesday’s NBA betting slate features five games on tap and the marquee matchup will take place at Quicken Loans Arena as Cleveland (8-1 straight up, 3-5-1 against the spread) hosts Toronto (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS). The Cavaliers opened as 5½-point home favorites and the number has moved to six at most betting shops as of this morning.
That number says a lot and you can see the respect given to Toronto this season from the oddsmakers.
During last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Cleveland was favored by 11, 11 and 12 at home in that series and it won and covered all of those games by double digits.
So what’s changed?
I don’t believe Cleveland has dropped off but it’s fair to say that the rest of the league has improved. The Cavaliers have gone 4-1 at home, yet they burned bettors with a 1-4 ATS record. The one loss came last Tuesday and that was a four-point setback (110-106) to a very good Atlanta team.
Another factor for the lower spread is Toronto’s play on the road this season. The Raptors have gone 3-0 as visitors and the offense has been better away (112.7 PPG) than at home (101.7 PPG).
Lastly, you can't ignore what DeMar DeRozan is doing this season for Toronto. He's averaging 34 PPG while shooting close 52.8 percent from the field, both career highs. Plus his numbers are up in steals (1.4) and rebounds (4.8 ) as well. Prior to the season, DeRozan was listed as a 100/1 betting choice to win the NBA's Most Valuable Player at Sportsbook.ag. Since his early surge, his odds have dropped to 12/1.
Cleveland dropped Toronto 94-91 on Oct. 28 as a 2½-point road favorite and the ‘under’ (205½) easily cashed. Including that result, the Cavs have won six of the last 10 against the Raptors. The last time Toronto won at Cleveland came in the 2014 regular season.
The total is hovering between 208 and 209. The Raptors have been a solid ‘over’ bet (6-3) while the Cavaliers leaned to the ‘under’ (6-3) this season.
Tuesday’s slate has four other games on tap bettors should make a note that home teams have started off this week strong with an 11-2 straight up record since Sunday. Favorites have gone 9-4 over this span but underdogs have managed to go 7-5-1 against the spread while the ‘under’ has posted a 7-6 mark.
Atlanta (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) at Miami (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS): The Hawks are listed as 6½-point road favorites for this matchup and I’d expect the line to go up just based on the form and talent of both teams. Atlanta has looked sharp this season and enters this game with four straight wins and covers. Meanwhile, Miami has dropped five straight games and is already looking towards the NBA Lottery and not the playoffs. I’d define the Heat as the poor man’s version of the Utah Jazz, who are known for their great defense. Miami will be facing its first back-to-back spot of the season after losing to San Antonio 94-90 as an 11-point road ‘dog on Monday. The Hawks have gone 2-1 on the road and are 1-0 ATS when laying points.
Charlotte (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) at Minnesota (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS): The Hornets have had a nice start but they’re slowly forming an identity as a bully. A 6-3 start is nothing to be ashamed of but the losses came to the top three contenders in the East (Celtics, Cavs, Raptors). Charlotte opened as a short road favorite (-2) for this matchup and that number is based on the lackluster start from Minnesota. The Timberwolves had high expectations under new coach Tom Thibodeau and he still hasn’t been able to solve the defensive issues (105.1 PPG). Minnesota posted a solid 125-99 win over the Lakers on Sunday as a one-point home favorite but it hasn’t managed to win two straight yet this season. The Hornets have owned this series recently, winning five straight and seven of the last eight encounters. Charlotte has won three of four at the Target Center during this span.
Chicago (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) at Portland (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS): This will be the first game of a six-game road trip for Chicago, who has started the season 2-3 as a visitor. Portland has posted a 4-2 mark at home but bettors have been burned with a 1-5 ATS record in those games. Not surprisingly, the two losses came to the Clippers and Warriors while the wins came to formidable opponents similar to the Bulls. High total (213½) for this matchup and it’s expected with Portland, who has seen the ‘over’ go 8-3 this season. The Trail Blazers are known for their offense firepower (108.7 PPG) but the lack of defense (111.1 PPG) is a big part of those total results. These teams split the regular season meetings last year and the visitor came out on top in each matchup. Both games were decided by single digits and the ‘under’ went 2-0.
Brooklyn (4-6 SU, 7-3 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (6-5 SU, 8-3 ATS): The late-night tip from the Staples Center isn’t an easy game to handicap but most bettors will be expecting a shootout when the Nets and Lakers get together. The total (220½) is the highest on the board and it’s got a great shot to get there based on what we’ve seen. The Nets (109.5 PPG) and Lakers (107.5 PPG) haven’t shown any great defensive tendencies thus far and they’re both attempting an obscene amount of 3-pointers this season. If those bombs fall, it’s lights out for ‘under’ tickets. Brooklyn will be playing on no rest after getting clobbered by the Clippers (127-95) in the same building last night. The Nets are 0-2 (1-1 ATS) in these spots this season. Los Angeles (-7) has only been favored twice this season (1-1) and this is the largest spread they’ve given. The Lakers will also be playing the first game at home after a three-game road trip and those situations are never easy. For what it’s worth, even though the Lakers only had 21 wins last season, two of them came against the Nets and both wins were by exactly six points.