NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, November 1st, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
NBA Knowledge
Rockets won seven of last eight games with Cleveland, which was Lebron-less for most of those games; Rockets won their last four visits here. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Houston is off to 2-1 start (under 2-1), but beat Dirk-less Mavericks twice. Cavaliers won first three games by 29-3-6 points (1-2 vs spread, under 3-0).
Indiana won seven of last nine games with Lakers; LA is 2-0-1 vs spread in last three. Lakers lost last three visits here by 19-20-2 points. Over is 4-1 in last five meetings here. Lakers are 1-1 as a road underdog, losing first two road games by 7-17 points (under 2-0). Indiana lost its last two games by 9-17 points; they won only home game so far, by 9 in OT (over 2-1).
Orlando is 7-2 in its last nine games vs Philly; Magic covered three of those last four. Four of last five series games went over total. Orlando lost its first three games by 12-26-6 points (1-2 vs spread, under 2-1). 76ers lost first two games by 6-32 points, both at home (under 2-0); this is their road opener.
Pistons are 5-3 in last eight games with New York; four of last five series games went over total. Knicks lost four of last five visits to Motor City (2-3 vs spread), last three of which went over the total. Knicks split their first two games, losing only road game by 29 in Cleveland. Detroit won its first two home games by 26-15 points, after losing their road opener.
Miami won nine of last ten games with Sacramento, but Kings are 4-3 vs spread in last seven; Kings lost last six visits to South Beach (3-3 vs spread). Nine of last ten series games went over the total. Sacramento is 2-2 (under 3-1) after losing by 11 in Atlanta last nite. Miami lost its first two home games, by 6-7 points.
Timberwolves lost 102-98 at Memphis in season opener; they’ve lost four of last six games with Grizzlies— over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Minnesota lost its first two games (both road games) by total of 7 points and already got called out by Thibodeau. Memphis won two of first three games (over 3-0) but lost only road game by 7 at New York.
Pelicans won eight of last ten games with Milwaukee (7-3 vs spread); four of last six series games went over total. Bucks lost last four visits to Bourbon Street by 21-8-1-17 points; Milwaukee lost two of first three games, losing road opener by 15 in Detroit. New Orleans lost its first three games, by 5-8-19 points (over 2-1).
Spurs won their last four games with Utah (3-1 vs spread); under is 4-2 in last six series games. Jazz dropped their last five visits to Alamo (1-4 vs spread, over 4-1). Utah lost its first two road games by 9-13 points- their last two games stayed under. San Antonio is 4-0 already, 3-0-1 vs spread (over 2-2). Spurs won their home opener by 19 over New Orleans.
Golden State ousted Portland from playoffs in five games LY, but Warriors won Game 4 in OT when series was 2-1, so it was tense. Golden State split last four games here (over 4-0); over is 9-1 in last ten series games. Warriors won their first two road games by 8-6 points after the loss to Spurs in opener. Trailblazers are 2-1 so far (over 3-0) with only loss to Clippers by 8.
Armadillosports.com
Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Favorites have jumped out to a strong start this week, going 10-1 straight up since Sunday. More importantly, the ‘chalk’ produced a decent 7-4 record against the spread while the ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in the last two days as well.
Tuesday’s card offers up a solid nine-game slate and there’s a little something for everybody, including the three best teams in action.
Game of the Night – Golden State at Portland
The Warriors (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) will look to notch their first cover of the season when they meet the Trail Blazers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) at the Moda Center. This pair squared off in the second round of the playoffs last summer and Golden State won the series in five games. The Warriors also took three of four from the Blazers during the regular season with the two losses both coming at Portland in the nine meetings.
Golden State’s new-look lineup with Kevin Durant hasn’t looked sharp in three games but head coach Steve Kerr made a good point. "We are not clicking," Kerr said. "Everyone can see that. It will come, but the main thing while we are going through this process is to continue to compete and try to pick up wins."
The two wins came against the winless Pelicans and Suns while the loss was a blowout to their biggest competition in the West, San Antonio. The Trail Blazers aren’t a minnow, rather a playoff team and they’re listed as home ‘dogs (+5) for tonight’s matchup. Portland has gone 1-1 at home this season and the loss came to a better opponent in the Clippers last Thursday. Including that loss, the Blazers are 9-8 SU in their last 17 games as home ‘dogs.
Golden State (26.7%) isn’t shooting well right now from 3-point land and that’s understatement when you look at its numbers from last season (41%). Even with those poor numbers, the Warriors are still averaging 109.3 points per game this season. Portland has been better offensively through three games (111.3 PPG) and tonight’s total is hovering between 227 and 228 as of Tuesday morning. The Trail Blazers have seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 while the Warriors are 2-1 to the high side this season.
The ‘over’ went 8-1 in the nine matchups last season and Portland averaged an eye opening 122.5 PPG at home versus Golden State.
Still Undefeated
After the Warriors, the Cavaliers and Spurs are the second and third betting choices to win this year’s NBA Finals and both teams have lived up to their billing as contenders so far.
Cleveland (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) will look to win its fourth straight game on Tuesday when Houston visits Quicken Loans Arena. The Rockets have won seven of their last eight against the Cavaliers but are listed as nine-point road underdogs in this matchup, which is set to start at 6:05 p.m. ET due to Game 6 of the World Series taking place in Cleveland tonight as well. Houston likes to push the pace but it’s seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 in its first three games and the defense actually held the Mavericks to 98 and 92 points in their last two matchups, both wins. The Houston offense will be a nice test for Cleveland, who continues to be a great defensive team (92.7 PPG). The Cavaliers went 14-4 SU (9-9 ATS) at home last season versus the Western Conference.
San Antonio (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) appears to be on cruise control right now and still remains unbeaten despite opening the season with three of four on the road. The defense has held three of four opponents under 100 and the oddsmakers expect that trend to continue on Tuesday. The Spurs host the Jazz as 10½-point favorites and the total is the lowest on the board at 187. Utah is ranked 29th in scoring offense (91.7 PPG) and that number won’t improve until forward Gordon Hayward (finger) returns from injury. The Spurs swept four games (3-1 ATS) against the Jazz last season and won three of the contests easily by double digits. These teams will meet again this Friday from Salt Lake City.
Notable Head-to-Head Trends
Indiana is 5-1 in its last six versus the Lakers but last three games decided by a total of seven points.
Orlando won and covered three of four against Philadelphia last season, averaging 119.7 PPG in the victories.
The Knicks and Pistons have seen the ‘over’ cash in four of their last five. The previous two games played at the Palace saw a combined 236 and 216 points scored between the pair.
Miami has won four straight (2-2 ATS) and nine of its last 10 meetings against Sacramento. The ‘over’ has gone 9-1 during this span.
The Grizzlies and Timberwolves have seen the ‘over’ cash in eight of the last 10 and six straight encounters.
New Orleans has won eight of its last 10 meetings against Milwaukee,
Looking for Wins
The first week of the season is in the books and we have seven winless teams, with four of them playing on Tuesday. Two of those teams will be squaring off against one another while the oddsmakers have the other pair favored in their games.
Orlando (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) visits Philadelphia (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) and the Magic have been installed as five-point road favorites while the total opened 197½ and jumped to 199 at a few shops. I’m a little surprised the total moved up considering the poor offensive production we’ve seen from both teams thus far. The Magic (92.3 PPG) are ranked 28th in scoring while the 76ers (84.5 PPG) are last in the league. When it comes to field goal percentage, Philadelphia ranks last (39%) in that category as well and Orlando barely sits above them in 29th position (39.3%). As noted in the trends, the Magic have been better in this series recently but hard to put stock into either of these squads right now.
Minnesota (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) entered the season with a lot of hype from pundits and the oddsmakers. The Timberwolves have actually played well enough to win both of their first two games but they’ve been outscored by 14 and 13 points in the second-half of those losses. The Wolves host the Grizzlies on Wednesday as 5½-point favorites and one of those aforementioned setbacks came to Memphis, a 102-98 loss last Tuesday on the road. Minnesota has a lot of nice parts but they lack a true outside threat under new head coach Tom Thibodeau and scoring points was a big during his tenure in Chicago.
New Orleans (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) has one of the best players in Anthony Davis but the remaining parts are below average and they’re very weak offensively (98.3 PPG, 42.1%), especially from 3-point land where they rank last in shooting (19%). Losses to the Spurs and Warriors were expected, plus the setback to the Nuggets in their home opener doesn’t look like a surprise now. New Orleans is a short favorite (-3) tonight and the better lean might be the ‘under’ considering the Bucks have scoring issues (98.3 PPG) of their own as well.
Back-to-Back
Sacramento (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) played at Atlanta on Monday and dropped a 106-95 decision as a seven-point road underdog. Fast forward to Tuesday and the Kings will visit the Miami Heat, who opened as a 3½-point home favorite. The Kings struggled on no rest last season with a 4-15 record but they were competitive at the betting counter with a 10-8-1 ATS mark. The club already faced one back-to-back situation this season and they lost at home last Thursday to San Antonio 102-94.
Warriors, Blazers meet in Portland on Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (2-1) at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (2-1)
Line: Golden State -5.0, Total: 228.0
The Warriors will be looking to win their third straight game when they face the Blazers on Tuesday.
Almost everybody in the world knows that the Warriors lost their season opener to the Spurs, but Golden State has rebounded from that embarrassing defeat. The team has now won two straight games, as the Warriors beat the Pelicans 122-114 as 12.5-point road favorites on Oct. 28 and followed it up with a 106-100 win as 11.5-point favorites in Phoenix on Sunday. One issue that sticks out when looking at the team’s start has been the shooting. The Warriors have hit less than 35% of their threes in each of their three games this season and that is just not something that is going to keep up. Look for them to get hot in this one, as the Blazers have allowed 110.3 PPG through three games this season. Portland has won-and-covered in two of those three contests, though, and should be feeling confident heading into this one. The Warriors, however, defeated the Blazers in the postseason last year and they know what it takes to beat this Portland team. That series victory was with PG Stephen Curry (25.7 PPG, 4.7 APG) playing on an injured knee, so they probably feel that they can blow out this Blazers team with Curry near 100%.
The Warriors are 2-1, but things haven’t looked great for them just yet. They’ll need a big time performance soon and Tuesday presents a good opportunity for them to turn that in. Curry seems like the guy that could really go off in this one. In the last two games against the Blazers in last year’s playoff series, Curry averaged 34.5 PPG and 9.5 APG. Look for him to take his matchup with Lillard personally and expect him to put up some huge numbers. SF Kevin Durant (31.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.7 SPG, 1.7 BPG), however, has been the Warriors’ best player thus far. Durant has been everything Golden State thought he would be, as he is averaging over 30 points per game and is doing so on just 17.7 field goal attempts per contest. Portland is weakest at the small forward position, so Durant should be able to have no trouble scoring in this one either. The x-factor in this game will be SG Klay Thompson (17.7 PPG), though. Thompson has not shot the ball well this season, as he is hitting just 14.3% of his threes and has attempted seven per game. If he does not find his stroke soon then the Warriors might continue to have trouble winning games.
The Blazers are off to a good start and a lot of that has to do with the play of PG Damian Lillard (35.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.0 SPG). Lillard has been unstoppable early on, as he is shooting 54.9% from the floor and 44.4% from three through three games. He also happened to have hit the game-winning floater to beat the Nuggets on Saturday night. Lillard likes to play against this Warriors team so look for him to be aggressive in his matchup with Steph Curry on Tuesday. Portland, however, will need SG C.J. McCollum (21.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.3 SPG) to play very well in this one. McCollum has a tough matchup with Thompson in this game and the Blazers really need him to win that one in order for them to pull off the upset in this game. He is going to be going up against Thompson at the right time, though, as he is clearly struggling to adjust to life with Kevin Durant thus far.