NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, November 7th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA knowledge
Cleveland lost five of last six games; they’re 0-8 vs spread as a favorite, 0-5 at home. Four of their last five games went over total. Cavaliers won seven of last eight games with Milwaukee , covering three of last four; Bucks are 2-2 vs spread in their last four visits to Cleveland. Milwaukee lost its last three games, covered once in last five games- they’re 1-2 as road underdogs. Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Dallas won nine of last ten games with Washington (8-2 vs spread); Mavericks are 5-0 vs spread in their last five games in this building. Last four series games went over total. Dallas lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); they covered one of last five road games. Under is 5-4-1 in their last ten games. Wizards lost four of last six games, losing last two home games, by 6-8 points. Over is 4-0 in their last four home games.
Pacers won nine of last ten games with New Orleans, but Pelicans covered the last three- they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Indiana. Under is 8-1 in last nine series games. New Orleans won its last three road games; they’re 1-2 vs spread as a road underdog. Last four Pelican games stayed under total. Pacers lost their last two games but are 3-1 at home, 2-0 as a home favorite. Four of their last six games stayed under total.
Home side won five of last six Chicago-Toronto games; Bulls covered four of their last five visits to Canada. Over is 9-1 in last ten series games. Chicago lost six of first eight games but covered five of last seven- they’re 3-1 as road underdogs. Bulls’ last five games stayed under the total. Raptors are 3-4 in last seven games; they’re 2-1 as a home favorite. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Home side won seven of last eight Charlotte-New York games; Knicks covered six of those eight games. Hornets are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Manhattan. Last four series games stayed under the total. Charlotte won/covered once in last five road games; four of their last five games overall went over total. New York won/covered five of its last six games; three of their last four went over the total.
Clippers won three of last four games with San Antonio; under is 4-2 in last six series games. Clippers are 3-2 vs spread in their last five visits to the Alamo. LA lost four of last five games, all at home; they’re they won/covered both road games. Three of their last four games went over total. Spurs are 6-4 to start season, 4-1 at home; they’re 4-0 as a home favorite. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Philly’s Embiid sits this game out (doctor’s orders). Utah won its last nine games with Philly (6-3 vs spread); under is 6-1 in last seven series games. 76ers are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Utah. Sixers won their last four games, covered their last six; their last four games went over the total. Jazz split their first ten games; they’re 3-1 as a home favorite. Last four Utah games went over total. Sixers’ Bayless (wrist) is also out here.
Nets won six of last eight games with Denver; last five series games went over. Brooklyn is 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. Nets won in Phoenix last night, ending a 4-game skid; they’re 2-3 as a road underdog. Over is 3-1 in their last four games. Nuggets won four of last six games; they’re 2-3 as a home favorite. Four of their last five games went over the total.
Portland won three of last four games with Memphis; over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Grizzlies are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Oregon. Memphis lost three of its last four games (over 3-1); underdogs covered their last four road games. Trailblazers split their last six games, but covered only one of them; they’re 1-4 vs spread as a home favorite. Under is 4-2 in their home games.
Thunder is 5-3 in its last eight games with the Kings; they’re 3-3 vs spread in last six visits to Sacramento. Over is 5-1 in last six series games. Oklahoma City is 2-3 in its last five games; they’re 2-3 vs spread as a road favorite. Under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Sacramento lost its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 5-8-27 points. Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Game of the Night: Grizzlies at Blazers
Memphis (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) continues its five-game road trip on Tuesday following a split at Staples Center against the Los Angeles teams over the weekend. The Grizzlies had seven players in double-figures in Saturday’s 113-104 triumph over the Clippers as five-point underdogs, while holding L.A. to 4-of-26 shooting from three-point range. However, David Fizdale’s club fell short on Sunday night against the Lakers, 107-102 as 2½-point favorites, as Memphis trailed by 18 points heading into the fourth quarter.
Portland (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) is in the midst of a stretch of 11 of 12 games played at the Moda Center. The Blazers are fresh off a pair of home victories over the Lakers and Thunder, as Terry Stotts’ team is searching for their first three-game winning streak of the season. Portland ended an 0-5 ATS run in Sunday’s 103-99 victory over Oklahoma City as three-point underdogs, led by a 36-point, 13-assist effort from guard Damian Lillard. The cover was only the second in six opportunities at home, but Portland’s record as a home favorite sits at 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS.
The Blazers captured two of three matchups from the Grizzlies last season, as Portland topped Memphis in the lone meeting at the Moda Center, 112-109 in January as one-point favorites. Since Memphis eliminated Portland in the playoffs in 2015, the Blazers have won four of the last seven matchups, including a 2-1 home record by Portland in this stretch.
Central Struggles
Both the Cavaliers and Bucks were playoff teams last season and Cleveland is vying for a fourth consecutive Eastern Conference championship. But it’s been a rough start for these Central division squads through the first three weeks of the season. The Cavs (4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS) have already lost to the Hawks, Magic, Knicks, and Pacers at home, while falling to Atlanta on Sunday as 11½-point favorites, 117-115. In fact, Cleveland has yet to cover at Quicken Loans Arena this season by compiling a dreadful 0-6 ATS home mark.
Milwaukee (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) has slipped of late also by dropping three in a row, while losing the first two on its four-game road trip to Charlotte and Detroit. Giannis Antetokounmpo has failed to score over 30 points in each of the past three games for the Bucks, after topping the 30-point mark in five of his first six games. The Bucks were rolled by the Cavaliers in their last matchup on October 20 at home, 116-97, while Cleveland owns a dominating 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS record against Milwaukee since November 2015.
Clipped Off
The Clippers (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) started the season on fire with four consecutive wins. However, L.A. stumbled to a 1-4 SU/ATS mark on its recent five-game homestand, including back-to-back setbacks to Memphis and Miami. The Clippers hit the highway for eight of their next nine games, including a three-game swing this week through San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and New Orleans. L.A. owns a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS record away from Staples Center, while taking three of four meetings from San Antonio last season, including a pair of victories at AT&T Center.
The Spurs (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) have managed to keep their heads above water without MVP candidate Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. Leonard is out indefinitely with a quad injury as San Antonio seeks its third consecutive victory following wins over Charlotte and Phoenix. San Antonio remains a tremendous home team at 4-1 with the lone loss coming to defending champion Golden State, while the Spurs are 5-0 this season when scoring at least 100 points and 1-4 when held to 99 or fewer points.
Garden Party
Watch out for the Knicks! That is not a joke after New York (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) rallied from a 19-point deficit on Sunday to shock Indiana, 108-101 behind 40 points from Kristaps Porzingis. The Knicks have won five of six games since an 0-3 start, as New York looks to finish off its five-game homestand with four victories. Charlotte invades Madison Square Garden tonight as the Hornets are coming off a pair of losses to the Spurs and Wolves following a three-game winning streak. The home team captured all three meetings last season, as New York beat Charlotte twice in Manhattan by a combined five points.
Thorne in the Throne
Sacramento (1-8 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) split its first two games of the season, but hasn’t won since as the Kings return to Golden 1 Center to host Oklahoma City as double-digit underdogs. The Kings are riding a seven-game losing streak, while coming off an 0-3 road swing at Indiana, Boston, and Detroit. Sacramento has yet to win a home game (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS), but has beaten OKC in its last two home matchups since 2016.
The Thunder (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) are seeking consistency following the offseason acquisitions of Carmelo Anthony and Paul George, but OKC heads to California’s capital off back-to-back losses to Boston and Portland. Billy Donovan’s team was limited to below 100 points in each of those defeats, while Anthony was ejected from Sunday’s setback to the Blazers after committing a flagrant foul. OKC is in the midst of a four-game UNDER streak, while winning and covering in its first two opportunities this season as a double-digit favorite.
Middle of the Pack
Both the Pelicans and Pacers have started 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS on the season as the two clubs hook up in Indianapolis. New Orleans has failed to bust the 100-point mark in the last four games, but the Pelicans are seeking their third consecutive win on their road trip following victories at Dallas and Chicago. The Pelicans have been a solid play away from the Big Easy by going 4-1 SU/ATS on the road since losing the season opener at Memphis.
Indiana has won three of four games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, but limp back home following road defeats at Philadelphia and New York. The Pacers allowed 131 and 114 points in its first two home contests, but improved drastically of late by giving up 94 and 83 points in its last two games in the Hoosier State. Dating back to 2012, the Pacers have owned the Pelicans by winning nine of the last 10 matchups, including the last five in Indianapolis.
Head-to-Head Matchups
The Mavericks travel to Washington trying to snap a six-game losing streak, while seeking its first win away from Dallas this season. Last season, the Mavs swept the Wizards, as Dallas has captured nine of the past 10 meetings with Washington since 2012.
The Bulls defeated the Raptors in 11 consecutive meetings from February 2014 through February 2017 until Toronto finally ended its hex in a two-point win last March. Toronto whipped Chicago last month, 117-101 as the two teams hook up tonight at the Air Canada Center. Since losing at Toronto, the Bulls have covered three straight road contests.
The Nuggets seek the season sweep of the Nets after a 13-point victory at Barclays Center on October 29. Five straight meetings have sailed OVER the total, including the last two matchups at Pepsi Center. Since beating Sacramento last month, the Nuggets have stumbled to a 2-5 ATS record in their last seven as a favorite.
Utah welcomes in Philadelphia seeking its 10th consecutive victory over the 76ers since 2013. Six of the past seven matchups have stayed UNDER the total, including the previous three in Salt Lake City. The Sixers are riding a four-game winning streak, while covering each of their past six games overall.
Tuesday's Betting Preview: Clippers at Spurs
Covers.com
Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs (-3.5, 202.5)
The Los Angeles Clippers' hot start is a thing of the past after four losses in the last five games - all at home - and things only get tougher as they embark on a stretch with eight of nine on the road. The first of those contests is Tuesday, when the Clippers visit the San Antonio Spurs.
Los Angeles ripped off four straight wins to begin the campaign but failed to take advantage of a five-game homestand and hits the road after dropping a 104-101 decision to the Miami Heat on Sunday despite overcoming a 25-point deficit. "The road sometimes can be very mean. And sometimes it can be great," Clippers coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "You're kind of forced together. You spend more time together on the road. You just try to build. We're a team right now that every game is not an easy game. And so, we have to be ready to play." The Spurs were in a similar spot with four wins to start the season followed by four losses but have since turned things around again with a pair of wins. San Antonio got strong play from its bench in each of the last two games and continues to operate without Kawhi Leonard (quad) and Tony Parker (quad).
LINE HISTORY: The home Spurs opened as five-point favorites but that number has been bet down to -3.5. The total hit betting boards at 200.5 and had been bumped up two full points to 202.5. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Clippers - SF D. Gallinari (Doubtful, Hip), SF J. Wilson (Out Indefinitely, Back), PG M. Teodosic (Out Indefinitely, Foot).
Spurs - PG D. White (Out Indefinitely, Wrist), C J. Lauvergne (Out, Ankle), PG T. Parker (Out, Quadricep), SF K. Leonard (Out Indefinitely, Quadricep).
POWER RANKINGS: Clippers (-11) - Spurs (-10.9) + home court (-3) = Spurs -2.9
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U): Los Angeles outscored the Heat 35-15 in the fourth quarter on Sunday and is trying to take that momentum out onto the road. "We've got to carry this over," guard Austin Rivers said, according to the Los Angeles Times. "That feeling that we had as a team that last quarter, we've got to feel that. And understand that if we play like that, we give ourselves a good chance every night." The Clippers were led by 23 points from Blake Griffin, who is averaging 23.7 points.
ABOUT THE SPURS (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 O/U): San Antonio had four players off the bench score in double figures in a 108-101 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Friday and turned the same trick during Sunday's 112-95 drubbing of the Phoenix Suns. Shooting guard Bryn Forbes is making the most out of his opportunities off the bench and averaged 17 points on 13-of-23 shooting in those two wins. Veteran small forward Rudy Gay was brought in to lead that second unit and he is averaging 12.6 points in 23.2 minutes, scoring in double figures in eight of the team's 10 games.
TRENDS:
* Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 72 percent of the spread wagers are on the home favorite Spurs while 61 percent of the totals selections are on the Over.
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Tuesday's Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers (-1, 217.5)
Pacers center Myles Turner made his return to the lineup over the weekend after missing seven games with a neck injury. Turner is arguably Indiana’s best player and the foundation piece the franchise plans to build around moving forward.
The only problem is the Pacers played really good basketball while he was out with Domantas Sabonis manning the middle in Turner’s place. Indy is 4-3 straight up and 5-2 against the spread without Turner and 0-2 SU and ATS since he came back.
Sabonis is most effective playing center and Indiana doesn’t want to give him too many minutes at power forward where Thaddeus Young is excelling.
Expect Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins to exploit the Pacers’ frontcourt mess.
Pick: Pelicans +1
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz (-6.5, 203)
There are few players as valuable to their team as Joel Embiid is to the Philadelphia 76ers. He can score in the post or from distance, and he’s a sneaky-smart passer with the ball in his hands at the elbow. He’s a solid rim protector and a force to get around for penetrating guards looking for points in the paint.
Embiid will not play on Tuesday at Utah as part of a scheduled rest day in hopes of keeping the injury-prone player fresh and healthy this season. The Sixers own a +9.0 net rating with Embiid on the floor and a -11.1 rating with him off.
Without their leading scorer expect the Sixers to try and push the pace more in hopes of getting easy baskets in transition. That’ll suit point forward and Rookie of the Year favorite Ben Simmons just fine.
Pick: Over 203
Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season record: 21-21
Total Streak
*The Over is 4-1 in the Cavs’ last five games.
*The Under is 4-0 in the Pels’ last four games, 4-1 in the Pacers last five home games and 4-0 in the last four games between the Pacers and Pelicans.
*The Over is 4-1 in the Hornets’ last five games.
*The Over is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last five games.
*The Under is 5-1 in the Thunder’s last six road games.
Injury to Watch
John Wall is expected to play for the Wizards tonight against the Dallas Mavericks after missing Sunday’s win at Toronto. The All-NBA point guard banged his shoulder hard against Channing Frye during Friday’s game against the Cavs. The line was off the board but opened at Wiz -10.5 vs. Dallas once Wall’s status was upgraded to probable.
As mentioned earlier, Sixers center Joel Embiid will sit out against Utah. Bookmakers opened the line at Jazz -3.5 but moved the spread up to -6.5 once the news about Embiid came out.
Ref to Watch
The Cavaliers are 10-0 straight up and against the spread the last 10 games worked by NBA referee Mike Callahan. He is the lead official in tonight’s Bucks-Cavs game.
Trends
*The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
*The underdog is 19-7 in the last 26 games between the Spurs and Clippers.
*The Mavericks are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
*The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
Consensus
Over 70 percent of players like the Spurs to win and cover as 3.5-point home favorites against the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night.
Tuesday's NBA Best Bet
By BetOnline.ag
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Sacramento Kings
Odds: Oklahoma City (-11); Total 203.5
Things haven't really gone according to plan for the OKC Thunder out of the gates this year. OKC enters play tonight with a sub-.500 record (4-5 SU) after nine games and are still struggling with a team identity and which one of their stars – Westbrook, George or Anthony – is the defacto “closer” late in games.
But while these early season issues may be new to the Thunder, they aren't new to basketball bettors as OKC's problems are almost identical to the ones the Miami Heat had early on a few years ago when LeBron and Chris Bosh joined D-Wade.
LeBron and company eventually got things figured out then and the same should hold true for the Thunder this year. But until that happens on a regular basis, Thunder games might be a little tougher to handicap – at least from a side perspective - because it's tough to know just what team will show up on a nightly basis.
Tonight, OKC is a double-digit road favorite against a bad Sacramento team that's gone 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Having lost two in a row to quality teams in Boston and Portland, a date with the Sacramento Kings could be just what the doctor ordered for OKC tonight. OKC failed to put up 100 or more in each of those two recent losses, and the one to Boston was especially disappointing because the Thunder actually blew a 18-point halftime lead that night.
It's one thing to blow an 18-point lead and say not cover a spread of -6.5 but still win outright, but it's another thing when you blow that lead completely by getting outscored by 25 points in the final two quarters to lose outright by 7. For all of OKC's ups and downs already this year, that defeat had to be a low point. But like I said, a date with the Kings tonight could help cure some of those issues, especially on the offensive end.
During Sacramento's current seven-game losing streak they've allowed 100+ six times, and all six of those were their most recent games. In the two Kings home games during that stretch opponents put up an average of 112 points against Sacramento and OKC has comparable talent to the likes of Washington and New Orleans who were in town for those contests. So for an OKC offense that is struggling a bit right now, there simply might be more then enough quality shots to go around against this porous Kings defense.
Yet, while scoring may come easier then it has of late for the Thunder, I don't think I'm ready to trust this team laying double-digits on the road. That blown lead to Boston (although at home) was a bit of a warning sign that this team still needs to build a lot of chemistry, and it's games like this where guys can go out and knock down some easy shots right from the outset that helps that process.
But like I said earlier, until I see some a bit more consistency from OKC, or at least in this specific case the number is a bit more reasonable, I'm not going to be touching their sides – either on or against them.
But tonight's total of 203.5 is the play I'm looking to attack as too many bettors out there believe the struggles of both offenses will continue tonight. VegasInsider.com currently has just below 70% of the action on the low side of this total, a number that's been bouncing up and down since opening. With Sacramento failing to top 100 in their last four games (and failing to top 90 in three of those four) and OKC not reaching the century mark in two straight, this number would seem a little high to some.
However, OKC has put it on poor defensive teams this year already with 113 and 116 scored in two games vs Minnesota, 114 against Indiana, 110 against Milwaukee, and 101 against a Bulls team in a 32-point win that saw the Thunder shut things down by the time the 4th quarter began. Had that not been the case that 101 number would have easily been much higher.
Sacramento's defense exists in a similar realm to those squads and with the need OKC has for a strong performance, I expect 110+ from them tonight. Even the oddsmakers have listed OKC's team total at 107.5 at BetOnline.ag, so getting to that 110+ range is a definite possibility.
But we will need the Kings to pull their weight here as well, and while the Thunder's defense has been great so far this year - 2nd in points allowed per game (97.1) – this has the feel of a game where both teams up the tempo a bit and try to shoot the lights out against each other.
OKC has to feel like the supremely talented team (they are) and should be able to win with their offense alone, while Sacramento as a hefty home dog has nothing to really lose by going out there and chucking up quick shots for 48 minutes. If more of them go down then not the Kings will put even more pressure on OKC to match them down the stretch.
OKC is 5-1 O/U in their last six against a team with a losing record, and this game should end up following suit, as both teams reach triple digits with the Thunder pulling away late.
Best Bet: OKC/Sacramento Over 203.5