NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, until these teams get some games under their belts. I’ll give you what relevant information I have:
Home side won last five Brooklyn-Orlando games; Magic lost by 10-5 points in last two visits to Barclays Center. Over is 4-0-1 in last five series games. Nets won two of their first three games (over 2-0-1); they lost 140-131 at Indiana in their only road game. Orlando won two of its first three games (over 2-1); they beat Miami by 7 in only home game. Magic lost by 5 at Brooklyn last Friday.
Bulls won their last five games with Cleveland, covered their last seven. Under is 6-3 in last nine series games. Bulls won by 12-18 points in last two visits here, but those Bulls aren’t these Bulls. Chicago lost its first two games this month by 17-10 points (over 1-1)- they lost only road game by 17 at Toronto. Cavaliers won two of their first three games (under 2-1).
Celtics won five of last six games with New York, covering three of last four; under is 6-3 in last nine series games. Knicks are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Boston. New York lost their first two games by 21-4 points (over 1-1), losing 105-84 at OKC in only road game. Boston lost two of first three games (under 2-1); they lost to Milwaukee by 8 in their only home game.
Pacers won three of last four games with Minnesota; over is 4-2 in last six series games; Indiana covered their last three games in the Twin Cities. Pacers lost two of first three game (over 2-1); they split their two home games. Timberwolves won their last two games by total of five points (over 2-0-1). Minnesota beat Utah by 3 in its only home game.
Pelicans won four of last six games with Portland; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five games in this building. Under is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. New Orleans lost two of first three games (over 2-1), splitting pair of road tilts. This is Trailblazers’ home opener; they went 2-1 in first three road games (under 2-1).
Utah ousted the Clippers from the playoffs in 7 games LY; Jazz covered last four road games in this series (under 3-1 in last four). Utah won two of first three games (under 2-0-1) losing by 3 at Minnesota in their only road game. Clippers won by 16-42 over Lakers/Suns in first two games (under 2-0); they step up in class here.
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Utah at L.A. Clippers
Perhaps wanting to prove that Chris Paul abandoning the team via his trade request and then divulging that he wanted out because of a lack of a winning culture didn't phase anybody, the L.A. Clippers have opened the season taking no prisoners. It could also just be that they've played the Lakers and Suns, two of the league's youngest teams, making it easier for them to impose their will.
We'll get a better sense of just how formidable the Clips truly are early in their inital post-Paul stage with the Jazz in town. While the division mates they've vanquished are unlikely to challenge for a playoff berth, Utah is very likely to be in the mix for a spot in the West' top eight and comes in perfect agaist the spread, losing on the road at Minnesota while beating Denver and Oklahoma City impressively. The Jazz held each under 100 points and have adjusted well to losing superstar Gordon Hayward via free agency this offseason. Defensive stalwart George Hill left too, moving on to Sacramento, but replacement Ricky Rubio has hit the ground running in providing a spark at both ends of the floor.
It will be interesting to see how he handles his first conventional road game as Utah's floor general since his first trip was easy to get up for, being back in Minnesota for the first time in a visiting uniform after spending his entire career there. Teammates played hard for him and he was obviously engaged, coming up with his best performance in a Jazz uniform thus far with 19 points and 10 assists.
Interfering with with rhythm here will be the primary objective of the guard who replaced Paul, defensive standout Patrick Beverley. An agitator with boundless energy, he now regularly screams out First-Team All-Defense after being honored for last season's work in Houston and made headlines to open the season by harrassing Lonzo Ball into an embarrassing debut. Eight months ago, he and Rubio got into a bit of a skirmish in a competitive Rockets-Wolves game, so it will be fun to see them get together again and see if any bad blood lingers despite their new circumstances. Rubio shot 30 percent against the Rockets in those games, losing two of three games.
Squaring off as catalysts for their respective teams provides an interesting wrinkle in a series that has been mostly about the bigs.
These teams met in a memorable first-round series that went the distance in April and effectively ended the CP-3 Clippers era. Instead of getting that crack at Golden State everyone on the roster coveted, L.A. blew a 2-1 series lead after Blake Griffin was lost for the rest of the series in Game 3 and lost Game 7 on their home floor despite DeAndre Jordan doing his part in dominating with 24 points and 18 rebounds. Paul shot 6-for-19. while Rudy Gobert's awful foul-riddled clincher that saw him disqualified in less than 14 scoreless, block-less minutes was bailed out by Derrick Favors coming up with 17 points and 15 rebounds off the bench.
Griffin and Jordan vs. Favors and Gobert has always been an attractive tag-team matchup to monitor when everyone has been healthy enough to play. Griffin averaged 16.8 points and 8.8 boards in helping the Clips go 3-1 against Utah during last regular-season, scoring just eight points on 3-for-8 shooting in the loss. He scored a combined 50 points in the first two games before being injured and opted to become the face of the franchise going forward, signing a five-year, $173 million in July after Paul had already forced his way out. Two years ago, he saw the Jazz only once but exploded for 40 points on 18-for-23 rebounds, grabbing 12 boards. Clearly, his play is going to be the driving force in this contest, so it's a positive sign for L.A. that he's started so well, averaging 29 points and 10 boards thus far. Jordan averaged 14.7 boards in last season's wins but was kept off the glass by the Jazz in the lone loss. He's averaging 18.5 rebounds through this season's two wins.
Gobert averaged 13.8 points and 11.8 rebounds last season and had his higher-scoring games at Staples. Favors played in just two of last year's meetings, losing both and shooting just 31.6 percent while averaging 9.0 points and 7.0 rebounds. He's healthier now and should play a larger role in tonight's contest, making him an x-factor.
The Clippers have dominated this series over the past five years, going 18-2 over the last 20 regular-season meetings since Feb. 1, 2012. Two of last season's meetings were won by double-digits despite identical 88-point scoring games. The 72 points L.A. held Utah to last February was their lowest-scoring output of the season as Quin Snyder lauded Jordan for his defensive IQ, admitting the center "steals all of our calls" because he can identify what's coming. Although that game was played in Utah, it's significant because Paul sat out with a thumb injury, proving they can certainly beat this Jazz team without him.
Utah has lost only beat the Clippers once (2015) in its last 10 regular-season trips to Staples Center, but went 3-1 there in the playoff series. We'll find out tonight if that success has exorcised their recent demons against the Clips in the building.
Injury Concerns
The Jazz list Rodney Hood as questionable with a calf strain that I expect will keep him out a few more games. Many thought he may have torn his achilles as he was being carried off the floor after stepping on Karl Anthony Towns' foot last Friday, so to the fact he went through portions of practice, according to the Salt Lake Tribune's Tony Jones, is fantastic news for Utah. Even without Hayward, Utah is in good shape with Joe Johnson, Alec Burks, Joe Ingles and rookie Donovan Mitchell on the roster, but Hood is on another level and could have a breakout season if he gets healthy.
Milos Teodosic, who was signed to ease the burden of losing Paul by bringing his playmaking skills that made him a legend in Europe, is going to be sidelined indefinitely with a plantar fascia injury. Austin Rivers is expected to move into the Clippers starting lineup, while Lou Williams is probably in line for more minutes unless rookies Sindarius Thornwell or Jawun Evans break into Doc Rivers' rotation.
Pacers forward Myles Turner has been ruled out due to a concussion and sore neck that should keep him out until at least Sunday's home date with the Spurs. Young Domantas Sabonis, veteran Al Jefferson and rookie T.J. Leaf will fill in until he's back, and all are defensive liabilities in a matchup against Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns.
Boston's Marcus Smart is dealing with an ankle injury that could sideline him in the Celtics first season to Madison Square Garden this season. After losing Hayward, his minutes and impact were expected to incresase, especially with the recently acquired Marcus Morris not ready to play until next week. Boston is already starting young Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but may have to give Abdel Nader or rookies Jabari Bird and Semi Ojeleye minutes if Smart can't go.
Orlando point guard Elfrid Payton is expected to miss another game due to a hamstring issue, but forward Aaron Gordon should return from a two-game abasence due to an ankle injury. Payton was hurt in last Friday night's 126-121 road loss to the same Brooklyn team the Magic will see tonight. The Nets won that game after learning they had lost PG Jeremy Lin (ruptured patella) for the season by featuring six double-digit scorers, none of whom scored more than 17 points.
The Bulls are still without suspended power forward Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic, who remains out with facial injuries after being punched by his teammate. Cleveland's Derrick Rose isn't going to play against his former team due to an ankle injury, while Tristan Thompson is questionable after missing practice with a sore knee.
Notable Head-to-Head Trends
The last five meetings between the Nets and Magic have all gone over the posted total and featured at least 222 combined points. The 247 scored last week were the most scored in this series since a triple-OT game way back in 1995.
Cleveland has lost seven of eight regular-season games since eliminating the Bulls from the 2015 Eastern Conference semis by erasing a 2-1 series deficit with three straight wins, the first of which was delivered on a rare LeBron James buzzer-beater. Chicago won both meetings at Quicken Loans Arena last season by a combined 30 points despite being an underdog each time.
Since 2015, Boston is 9-2 against New York and 5-1 overall at the Garden.
Tonight's second-most attractive contest pits the Pelicans and Trail Blazers in Portland for a matchup of Western Conference playoff hopefuls. After acquiring DeMarcus Cousins, New Orleans won both meetings against the Blazers, who retooled themselves by adding Jusuf Nurkic. Expect a fun matchup since the Pels have the obvious edge up front thanks to their two All-Stars while Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum will give the home team a major boost with their decided edge over a New Orleans backcourt that now features Jameer Nelson in addition to Jrue Holiday, E'Twuan Moore and Ian Clark.
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Tuesday's Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
Our string of 1-1 records continued yesterday as the Kings couldn’t top the sinking Suns. We might need a little bit of magic to break the curse and net us a winning day.
Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic (-5, 229.5)
Orlando is pulling a disappearing act on its reputation as a poor 3-point shooting team. The Magic were second to last in the league in 3-point shooting percentage at 32.8 percent last season, but this year they are first in the league at 48.3 percent.
Center Nikola Vucevic is showing off his new extended range with seven made triples this season, compared to the 23 he made all of last year. The Magic are able to space the floor much better now with Vucevic behind the arc drawing defenders away from the paint and with capable shooters like Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross just a skip pass away.
D.J. Augustin continues to start at point guard for the injured Elfrid Payton but that should be good news for over bettors. Payton looks to push the pace but his defense is much better than Augustin.
Pick: Over 229.5
New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5, 220)
This is a matchup elite guard play versus elite big men and if past meetings are an indication, the little guys could be in trouble.
The Blazers are most dangerous when the ball is in the hands of either point guard Damian Lillard or off guard C.J. McCollum. The two combined to shoot 12 for 30 from the field in their only game against the Pelicans with their new twin tower combo.
New Orleans won and covered in three of its four games against Portland last season and Anthony Davis averaged 28 points, 12 rebounds, four blocks and 3.3 assists in those games. Portland went 1-2 against the spread versus the Kings last year when DeMarcus Cousins was still there. Boogie averaged 34.5 points, 10 rebounds and 3.3 assists against the Blazers last season.
Basically, our theory is Davis and Cousins will enjoy playing against Portland’s weak front line.
Pick: Pelicans +4.5
Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season record: 6-8
Total Streaks
*The over is 4-0 in the Cavs’ last four games when playing on two days’ rest.
*The over is 7-2-1 in the Magic’s last 10 games overall.
*The over is 10-1 in the Pacers’ last 11 road games.
Injury To Note
The Cleveland Cavaliers again will be without Derrick Rose on Tuesday night. The former league MVP sprained his ankle last week and isn’t expected to be back in the lineup for the next couple weeks. Veteran Jose Calderon got the start in the Cavs’ last game – a 114-93 shock loss to the visiting – and 11.5-point underdogs – Orlando Magic.
Referee Assignment To Watch
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics:
Home teams are 4-0 against the spread in games officiated by members of the crew working the Knicks – Celtics game.
Trends:
*The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games at Cleveland.
*The Timberwolves are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
*The Jazz are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games.
Covers Consensus
Over 70 percent of Consensus players like the Magic to cover as 5-point chalk tonight against the visiting Brooklyn Nets.