Wednesday's Best NBA Bets
By Covers.com
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics (-11.5, N/A)
Spin it any way you want to, but the Boston Celtics just aren’t very good right now.
They have dropped five games in a row both straight up and against the spread and there’s more than enough blame to go around. Paul Pierce was preaching patience in the locker room after Boston dropped a 97-88 decision to Oklahoma City as a 2.5-point favorite Monday.
Problem is, in a 66-game schedule, the Celtics are going to have to get it together pretty soon. Right now they’re sloppy all over the court.
"Our turnovers are killing us,” coach Doc Rivers told reporters after the Thunder turned 19 Boston turnovers into 24 points. “And a lot of the turnovers we're just trying to will the team, do too much. It's not like anybody's being selfish, but the way you win is with execution."
The Celtics shouldn’t be favored by double digits against anybody right now – the rotten Raptors included.
Pick: Raptors
Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks (-1.5, 185)
When Atlanta center Al Horford was lost for the year, many people figured the Hawks were done. Josh Smith wasn’t one of those people.
Instead, Smith has put the team on his back, helping the club to six wins in its last seven games. He went off for 28 points and a season-high 15 rebounds as Atlanta downed Toronto 93-84 on Monday.
"I'm not surprised because we have guys in this locker room who can play," Smith said of his team’s strong play without Horford. "We have veteran leadership. We have veteran guys who have been there and done that before. All we need to do is just keep flying under the radar."
Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case at the books. The Hawks have been favored in four of their last five and covered the number just once during that span.
That said, Portland has covered just once in its last four, so we’ll stick with Smith and the home team.
Pick: Atlanta
Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Wednesday NBA card is filled with 11 games as the season continues to give bettors plenty of opportunities. Several clubs have turned into tremendous wagers this season, while other squads have become pointspread poison less than one month in. The Celtics and Raptors each look to snap a five-game skid, while the Suns and Knicks are trying to get on track at Madison Square Garden. We'll start in Philadelphia with two of the hottest ATS teams hooking up for an interconference showdown.
Nuggets at Sixers (-6, 201)
Philadelphia couldn't get out of the first round against Miami in last season's playoffs, but the Sixers had something to build on coming into this season. Doug Collins' club is an impressive 11-2 ATS through the first 13 games, including a 6-0 SU/ATS mark at the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers will see their first real home test on Wednesday night when the Nuggets invade the City of Brotherly Love.
Denver heads to Philadelphia with no rest following Tuesday's victory at Milwaukee, as the Nuggets continue a five-game road swing. George Karl's squad isn't too far behind the Sixers in the ATS department by cashing in 10 of their first 14 games, including a 5-1 ATS away ledger. The Nuggets have lost on the road to the Blazers, Lakers, and Spurs, while the only impressive win on the highway came in the season opener at Dallas.
The Sixers have taken care of their business at home by beating five of six teams that currently sit below .500 (Pistons, Raptors, Kings, Wizards, and Bucks). All six victories at the Wells Fargo Center are by double-digits, including a 12-point triumph over Milwaukee as 8 ½-point 'chalk' on Monday. Philadelphia swept the season series from Denver last season, including a 110-99 win as a 1 ½-point favorite last January.
Thunder (-11, 197) at Wizards
Two teams going in completely different directions meet in the Nation's Capital as Oklahoma City goes for its eighth consecutive victory. The Thunder is also helping backers by covering five straight games in the favorite role as the Wizards look for just their second win of the season. Washington owns the worst record in the league at 1-12 after a 114-106 home defeat to Houston on Monday, the fourth straight contest in which the Wizards have lost.
Flip Saunders has likely run out of answers at this juncture, as Washington finally broke the 100-point plateau after 12 games. The lone victory for the Wizards came on January 10 against the Raptors in a 93-78 home triumph, but Washington has scored 90 points or less in nine games. Following five 'unders' in the first five games at the Verizon Center, the Wizards have now cashed the 'over' in back-to-back home contests against the Sixers and Rockets.
The Thunder overcame a four-game ATS skid in late December/early January to cash in six of their next seven games, including Monday's win at Boston. There's no reason to think that Oklahoma City can't extend their winning streak to 12 towards the end of January with games against the Nets, Pistons, Hornets, and Warriors following Wednesday's contest as a double-digit favorite over the Wizards.
Suns at Knicks (- 7½, 195)
New York had plenty of expectations to be a team that would battle Chicago and Miami in the Eastern Conference this season. However, a 6-7 start out of the gate, combined with Carmelo Anthony's various injuries (ankle, wrist) has turned the Knicks back into a middle of the road team. New York tries to snap a three-game skid on Wednesday as the Knicks welcome in the Suns, who play the third of a five-game road swing.
The Knicks' offense has been held to 93 points or less in each of the previous five games, including in Monday's nine-point setback to the Magic as two-point home underdogs. New York has covered just three times this season, while compiling a dreadful 1-5 ATS mark at MSG. It makes things even more difficult to back the Knicks as Mike D'Antoni's club is 0-6 ATS as a favorite of at least five points this season.
D'Antoni's former club isn't looking too hot as the Suns are in the midst of an 0-5 SU/ATS skid. Phoenix put together a 5-1 ATS run from December 30 through January 8, but the offense has gone backwards by scoring 91 points or less three times during this losing streak. The Suns are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS when facing rested opponents, as all seven SU losses are by seven points or more.
Raptors at Celtics
Is the window closing on Boston in year five of the Celtics' Big Three? Doc Rivers' squad attempts to snap a five-game skid, the longest since Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, and Paul Pierce have played together in Beantown. The equally struggling Raptors invade TD Garden as Toronto will likely be without leading scorer Andrea Bargnani, who has missed the last three games with a calf injury.
The Celtics lost for the second straight time as a home underdog in Monday's defeat to the Thunder, the fifth consecutive non-cover for Boston. During this cold stretch, the Celtics have turned into a solid 'under' team by cashing in eight of the last nine games, while scoring 89 points or less in six straight contests.
The Raptors started the season with covers in four of their first six games, while splitting their last eight games against the number. Toronto is riding a three-game ATS hot streak, but each cover came by less than a point in losses to Indiana, Chicago, and Atlanta. The Raps are in the midst of eight of nine games away from home, while going 5-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Hot Teams
-- 76ers won/covered nine of their last ten games. Nuggets won three of their last four games.
-- Thunder won their last seven games, covered last five.
-- Orlando won its last five games; they're 3-2 as a home favorite.
-- Warriors won last two road games, covered four of last five.
-- Raptors covered last three games; they're 5-3 as a road underdog.
-- Grizzlies won last three games, but are 1-4 as a road underdog.
-- Hawks won six of seven home games but covered just one of last five as a home favorite.
-- Pacers won five of their last six games.
-- Clippers won their last six home games (5-1 vs spread). Dallas won five of last six games (6-0 vs spread).
Cold Teams
-- Washington lost last four games, by 14-36-13-8 points; they're 1-4 as a home underdog.
-- Spurs are 0-5 on road (9-0 at home) losing by 20-10-12-3-22 points.
-- New York lost its last three games, by 11-12-9 points. Suns lost their last five road games (0-4 vs spread last four).
-- Nets lost all four home games, by 36-14-11-5 points.
-- Celtics lost last five games; they're 2-4 as a home favorite.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four home games. Pistons covered once in seven games as a road underdog.
-- New Orleans lost its last six home games (0-6 vs spread).
-- Trailblazers lost three of their last four games.
-- Kings lost five of last six games; they're 2-3 as a home underdog.
Totals
-- Five of Philly's six home games stayed under the total.
-- Six of Thunder's seven road games stayed under the total.
-- Last four San Antonio road games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven New York games stayed under total.
-- Last five Golden State road games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Toronto's last five road games.
-- Five of seven Detroit road games stayed under total.
-- All five Memphis road games stayed under the total.
-- Five of six Portland road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Indiana's last five games, 7-1 in Kings' last eight.
-- Four of last five Dallas road games stayed under the total.
Wear and Tear
-- Nuggets: 4th game/6 nites. 76ers: 7th game/10 nites.
-- Thunder: 3rd game/5 nites. Wizards: 6th game/9 nites.
-- Spurs: 8th game/12 nites. Magic: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Suns: 5th game/7 nites. Knicks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Warriors: 5th game/7 nites. Nets: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Raptors: 9th game/13 nites. Celtics: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Pistons: 9th game/13 nites. Timberwolves: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Grizzlies: 3rd game/5 nites. Hornets: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Blazers: 6th game/9 nites. Hawks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Pacers: Had last three nights off. Kings: 6th game/9 nites.
-- Mavericks: 6th game/9 nites. Clippers: 3rd nite in row, 4th/5 nites.
DENVER (9 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 125-169 ATS (-60.9 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in January games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 65-95 ATS (-39.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-40 ATS (-26.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 69-100 ATS (-41.0 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY (12 - 2) at WASHINGTON (1 - 12)
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 110-88 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 58-41 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 35-60 ATS (-31.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 27-52 ATS (-30.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 268-334 ATS (-99.4 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 86-117 ATS (-42.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO (9 - 5) at ORLANDO (10 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 242-187 ATS (+36.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 104-74 ATS (+22.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
ORLANDO is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 2-2 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX (4 - 9) at NEW YORK (6 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 57-39 ATS (+14.1 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 2-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 2-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE (5 - 8) at NEW JERSEY (3 - 11)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 3-1 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (4 - 10) at BOSTON (4 - 8)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT (3 - 11) at MINNESOTA (5 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS (6 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 10)
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 6-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-4 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND (8 - 5) at ATLANTA (10 - 4) - 1/18/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-0 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA (9 - 3) at SACRAMENTO (4 - 10)
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 2-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS (8 - 6) at LA CLIPPERS (7 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-0 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 7-0 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. WASHINGTON
Oklahoma City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
SAN ANTONIO vs. ORLANDO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Orlando
San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
DENVER vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
TORONTO vs. BOSTON
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Toronto's last 19 games
Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Boston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Toronto
PHOENIX vs. NEW YORK
Phoenix is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Phoenix's last 10 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
New York is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
GOLDEN STATE vs. NEW JERSEY
Golden State is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games
New Jersey is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games
Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit
MEMPHIS vs. NEW ORLEANS
Memphis is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Memphis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
PORTLAND vs. ATLANTA
Portland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Portland is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
INDIANA vs. SACRAMENTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games on the road
Indiana is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games
Sacramento is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
DALLAS vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Clippers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing Dallas
DENVER at PHILADELPHIA
DENVER: 34-18 Under when the total is 200 to 209.5
PHILADELPHIA: 10-1 ATS as favorite
OKLAHOMA CITY at WASHINGTON
OKLAHOMA CITY: 16-5 ATS vs. Southeast Division
WASHINGTON: 13-1 Under off BB home losses
SAN ANTONIO at ORLANDO
SAN ANTONIO: 16-5 Over as an underdog
ORLANDO: 5-18 ATS off division game
PHOENIX at NEW YORK
PHOENIX: 8-1 Under when the total is between 190 and 199.5
NEW YORK: 4-13 ATS as home favorite of 6.5 to 12 pts
GOLDEN STATE at NEW JERSEY
GOLDEN STATE: 5-1 Over in road games
NEW JERSEY: 0-5 ATS off BB road games
TORONTO at BOSTON
TORONTO: 6-0 ATS off BB losses
BOSTON: 7-1 Under in January
DETROIT at MINNESOTA
DETROIT: 29-17 Under as a road underdog
MINNESOTA: 25-8 Under at home vs. non-conference
MEMPHIS at NEW ORLEANS
MEMPHIS: 35-14 ATS if underdog last game
NEW ORLEANS: 11-24 ATS off a home loss
PORTLAND at ATLANTA
PORTLAND: 29-14 ATS off road win
ATLANTA: 9-23 ATS off BB home wins
INDIANA at SACRAMENTO
INDIANA: 26-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
SACRAMENTO: 10-24 ATS at home vs. non-conference
DALLAS at LA CLIPPERS
DALLAS: 7-1 ATS off road loss by 3 pts or less
LA CLIPPERS: 0-6 ATS vs. Dallas
Hoop Trends - Wednesday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Kings are 10-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since November 12, 1999 after a double digit loss against the Timberwolves.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The 76ers are 0-12 OU (-9.1 ppg) since April 23, 2003 as a home favorite when they won and covered as a favorite in each of their last two games.
PLAYER BASED TREND OF THE DAY:
The 76ers are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since March 26, 2010 at home with at least a day of rest after a win in which Elton Brand took fewer than 10 shots.
CHOICE TREND:
The Celtics are 0-9 OU (-11.2 ppg) since April 17, 2010 at home after a loss in which Ray Allen scored fewer than 10 points.
TODAY’S TRENDS:
The Timberwolves are 0-12-1 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since March 19, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.