What Bettors Need to Know: Wednesday's NBA Action
By Covers.com
New York Knicks at Miami Heat (-11, 183)
THE STORY: Carmelo Anthony put the New York Knicks on his back on Sunday and made sure that they would not be swept out of the playoffs. But the win came at a cost, with point guard Baron Davis the latest to be lost with an injury. The Miami Heat are healthy, heading home and enjoying a 3-1 lead in the series. LeBron James and company will try to finish out the series in Game 5 on Wednesday.
ABOUT THE KNICKS: Anthony scored 12 of his 41 points in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s Game 4 and New York still had to sweat out a last-second miss by Dwyane Wade before celebrating. That 89-87 win snapped a 13-game postseason losing streak for the franchise. Amar'e Stoudemire, who sat out Game 3 after cutting his hand, recorded 20 points and 10 boards despite playing with a heavy wrap on the hand. But the Knicks suffered another blow in the third quarter when Baron Davis tore two knee ligaments and his patella tendon driving to the basket. Already without starting guard Iman Shumpert, New York will break in a new backcourt in Game 5. Jeremy Lin, who underwent knee surgery five weeks ago, has been practicing with the team but has yet to play.
ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami cruised through the first three games because their stars played like stars and the role players stepped up. In Game 4, Wade went 4 for 11 from the free throw line and lost his handle driving the lane on the final play. James committed five turnovers but ended up with a team-high 27 points. Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller and Shane Battier, who had taken turns stepping up in the first three games, combined for 11 points on 4-of-17 shooting in Game 4. Heat coach Eric Spoelstra made the decision to put Battier on Anthony in the fourth quarter and the veteran forward could not contain the Knicks’ star. Previously, James had gotten the bulk of the time on Anthony.
TRENDS:
- The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
- The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as a favorite.
- The under is 22-6 in the Heat's last 28 home games.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Knicks are bidding to become the first NBA team to overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series.
2. Davis, 33, had an MRI reveal the massive damage. He will be out about a year.
3. Wade has been playing with a dislocated left index finger.
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies (-6, 183.5)
THE STORY: Losing the series opener after blowing a 27-point lead at home was an ominous sign for the Memphis Grizzlies, who will look to stave off elimination when they host the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night in Game 5 of their Western Conference first-round series. The Grizzlies have not found a way to solve the Clippers down the stretch, with their three losses coming by a total of six points. Memphis had won 11 consecutive home games before collapsing in Game 1.
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Blake Griffin had been held pretty much in check until busting out with a 30-point performance in Game 4. Despite the brilliant performance, All-Star point guard Chris Paul continues to be the difference-maker in the series. Paul is averaging 26.7 points in the last three games, but it’s his play with the game on the line that has separated the clubs. Case in point: Los Angeles blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead and Paul bungled the final possession in Game 4. No matter. He responded by scoring eight points in overtime to snuff out the Grizzlies’ last-gasp comeback.
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Memphis has been unable to find a consistent No. 2 scoring option to go with Rudy Gay, who is averaging a shade under 22 points in the series. Center Marc Gasol, a 14.6-point scorer in the regular season, has attempted only nine shots in the past two games. Sixth-man O.J. Mayo also has careened off the radar, scoring a total of 11 points on 1-of-14 shooting in the two losses in Los Angeles. Nonetheless, Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins is more concerned with one area: defending Paul. “He’s the problem, and we’ve got to solve the problem.”
TRENDS:
-The Grizzlies are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.
- The Clippers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
- The over is 6-1 in Clippers' last seven overall.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. There are only eight teams in NBA history that have rebounded from a 3-1 deficit to win a seven-game series.
2. Los Angeles is looking to win its first postseason series since beating the Denver Nuggets in the first round in 2006.
3. Memphis had an 18-0 edge in second-chance points in regulation Monday, but the Clippers scored all of their five second-chance points in overtime.
Inside the Paint - Wednesday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
New York at Miami
The Heat had every opportunity to notch a first-round sweep on Sunday but they came up short as New York earned an 89-87 victory in Game 4. The Knicks got a huge effort from Carmelo Anthony, who scored 12 of his 41 points in the fourth quarter and Amare Stoudemire also stepped up in the win after missing Game 3 with a hand injury, adding 20 points and 10 rebounds.
Miami still holds a commanding 3-1 lead and as the series heads back to South Beach, oddsmakers opened the Heat as 11-point favorites for Game 5 and the line has held steady.
The number appears to be fair, considering Miami beat New York by 33, 10 and 17 points in the first three games. Plus, the Knicks have been plagued by the injury bug in this series, especially in the backcourt. After losing Iman Shumpert to a knee injury in Game 1, the club lost Baron Davis to a knee injury on Sunday. There was hope that Jeremy Lin could return Wednesday but head coach Mike Woodson ruled him out for the series after the latest medical evaluation, which means Mike Bibby will get the start in Game 5.
If you’re looking for a reason to back New York for the cover on Wednesday, you could point to its defense. After watching the Heat put up 100 and 104 at home, the club was held to 87 points in each of the two games played at Madison Square Garden.
Plus, Miami appears to be lacking late-game chemistry and their coaching decisions have been a little confusing. For starters, LeBron James wasn’t checking Anthony in the final minutes and the final shot was given to Dwyane Wade after LeBron carried them the entire day with 27 points. Plus, gamblers should note that Wade was 4-of-11 from the free throw line in the two-point loss.
Since the number is healthy and the Knicks are short-handed, the ‘over/under’ could be the better look for Wednesday. Total players have watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 through the first four games and the number for Game 5 is hovering between 182 and 183 points. Game 2 was the only contest (104-94) that went ‘over’ and that was aided by good shooting performances from both the Knicks (49.4%) and Heat (52.1%).
In the seven meetings this season, New York has never busted the century mark on Miami and only eclipsed 90 on one occasion, which came in the aforementioned second game of this series. Miami has been a clear-cut ‘under’ team all season (42-26) and that includes a current 16-4 run in its last 20 games.
In case you’re wondering, the NBA is the only sports league, NHL and MLB being the others, remaining that has never seen a team win a series after facing a 0-3 deficit. If you believe the Knicks can win three more against the Heat, then perhaps you should look at the adjusted series price. The offshore outfit 5Dimes.com has New York listed as an 80/1 longshot (Bet $100 to win $8,000) to win the series.
If necessary, Game 6 will be played on Friday at Madison Square Garden.
L.A. Clippers at Memphis
Even though most of the opening round series have been duds, this best-of-seven battle has been very competitive despite the Clippers’ 3-1 edge over the Grizzlies. Every game has been decided by single digits and the three wins by Los Angeles were by a combined six points, which includes Monday’s 101-97 overtime victory in Game 4.
On Monday, the Grizzlies rallied from a five-point deficit in the fourth quarter to force the extra session but the Clippers outscored them 14-10 in overtime for the win. Los Angeles closed as a two-point favorite and fortunately for ‘over’ bettors, the added five minutes helped cash their tickets.
The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in this series but playing the total can be frustrating just because of the missed free throws by the Clippers. In Game 4, Los Angeles finished 28-of-40 from the stripe, which was an improvement from the 13-of-30 performance in Game 3.
Despite the ‘over’ run in this series, the total is still hovering around the same neighborhood of 183 points. During the regular season, the ‘under’ went 3-0 and all of the totals were listed at 186 and up.
While the total has switched gears in the playoffs from the ‘under’ to the ‘over,’ the same cannot be said for the side. The home team has won six of the seven encounters and the lone loss came in Game 1 of this series when the Clippers rallied from a 27-point deficit to steal the first installment (99-98).
Memphis did rebound from that collapse in Game 2 as it earned a seven-point (105-98) win over Los Angeles. The Grizzlies might’ve pushed for some players but most shops closed them as 6½-point favorites, which is close to the Game 5 opener of six.
The Grizz are minus-290 (Bet $290 to win $100) on the money-line for Game 5, while you can get 5/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $250) on the Clippers to close out the series.
Instead of laying a healthy price on Wednesday’s money-line with Memphis or toying with the point-spread on Game 5, the adjusted series price could be the better investment. The Grizzlies are listed at a plus-295 (Bet $100 to win $295) price. Winning three straight against any team isn’t an easy task but two of the games would be played at FedEx Forum.
If necessary, Game 6 will be played on Friday from the Staples Center.
NEW YORK (37 - 33) at MIAMI (49 - 21)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 84-69 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 44-31 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-5 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 11-3 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS (43 - 27) at MEMPHIS (42 - 28)
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 392-460 ATS (-114.0 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 148-187 ATS (-57.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 135-186 ATS (-69.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 90-72 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 47-33 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 46-32 ATS (+10.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 7-7 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-6 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK vs. MIAMI
New York is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against New York
LA CLIPPERS vs. MEMPHIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 6 games on the road
LA Clippers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Memphis is 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
New York at Miami
New York: 6-0 Under off a home win by 3 points or less
Miami: 11-2 Under off a loss as a 7-point road favorite or higher
LA Clippers at Memphis
LA Clippers: 18-40 ATS away off an Over
Memphis: 17-6 ATS after losing 3 of their last 4 games
NBA Preview
Knicks @ Heat (3-1) -- Stat analysts swear Anthony does better when Battier is guarding him, but Miami seems eager to have Battier check him anyway; this series would be over had Wade not gone 4-11 from foul line Sunday. New York avoided sweep last game, got first playoff game win since 2001 Sunday- they're 1-6 vs Miami this season, losing by 10-8-14-33-10-17 points- they're 3-13 overall in last 16 series games. Eight of last nine series games stayed under the total.
Clippers (3-1) @ Grizzlies -- Memphis outscored Clippers 386-385 so far in series, but lost three of four games, with two 1-point losses and a loss in OT. Clippers won seven of last nine series games-- home team is 8-2 in last ten series games, 6-2 this year. Gutty Butler (broken hand) played 22-26 minutes last two games; hard to put a value on that kind of toughness. LA point guard Paul is best player on floor; he takes over the cloe games at the end-- he had 8 points in OT in Game 4.
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