Spurs at Thunder Game 6: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5, 201.5)
THE STORY: After making history with a 20-game winning streak, the San Antonio Spurs will see their season become history if they cannot avoid a fourth consecutive loss to the host Oklahoma City Thunder in Wednesday's Game 6 of the Western Conference finals. The Thunder moved within one win of the NBA Finals with a 108-103 victory in San Antonio on Monday night - giving them a chance to close out the series on their home floor, where they are 7-0 in the playoffs.
ABOUT THE SPURS: In an attempt to slow the Thunder's momentum, San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich inserted sixth man Manu Ginobili into the starting lineup for the first time in the playoffs and was rewarded with a game-high 34 points Monday night. The move came with a cost, though. The Spurs' bench was outscored 42-22 and the team committed 21 turnovers, including five apiece by Ginobili and point guard Tony Parker, who has struggled with his shot and has only 12 assists against 11 turnovers since a 34-point effort in Game 2. San Antonio has made two valiant fourth-quarter comebacks in the past two games but it continues to be plagued by a second-quarter malaise, falling behind by double digits in the first half of the past three contests.
ABOUT THE THUNDER: On the verge of blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead, reigning Sixth Man of the Year James Harden drilled a long 3-pointer inside of 30 seconds to put the Spurs on the brink of elimination. Oklahoma City has been able to build early double-digit leads in the past two games with minimal contributions from three-time scoring champion Kevin Durant, who had 22 of his 27 points in the second half. Russell Westbrook had a near-disastrous sloppy stretch late in Game 5, but he negated that by scoring 23 points and posting a season-high 12 assists. With Harden averaging 19 points in the series, the Spurs have not been able to match up defensively, one reason why the Thunder are scoring 107.5 points per game in the last four.
TRENDS:
- Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Thunder are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
- Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. The Thunder can become the 15th team in NBA history to erase a 2-0 deficit and win a best-of-seven series.
2. After going 50 days without a loss, the Spurs have been beaten three times in five days.
3. San Antonio has never won a playoff series when forced to play a Game 6 on the road. The Spurs won in Dallas in Game 6 in 2006, but proceeded to lose Game 7 at home.
SAN ANTONIO (60 - 19) at OKLAHOMA CITY (58 - 22)
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 44-35 ATS (+5.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 50-26 ATS (+21.4 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 152-113 ATS (+27.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-7 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-5 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
San Antonio: 14-4 Over after allowing 105+ points
Oklahoma City: 3-10 ATS off BB wins by 6 points or less
Game 6, Spurs-Thunder
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Western Conference Finals looked like San Antonio's to lose after winning the first two games at home. However, the young and hungry Thunder are making plenty of noise with three consecutive victories, as Oklahoma City can close things out with a home win in Wednesday's Game 6.
The Thunder proved they weren't going away with consecutive triumphs at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Games 3 and 4, but the ultimate test was shocking the Spurs, 108-103 as five-point road underdogs in Game 5. San Antonio led by seven points early on, but OKC stormed back to take a 50-36 advantage after a three-point play by James Harden. The Spurs managed to cut the halftime deficit to eight points at the halftime, 52-44, as the Thunder cashed as three-point 'dogs in the first half.
Things were starting to turn around for Spurs' backers in the second half as San Antonio's late first half run translated eventually into a 67-61 lead with less than six minutes remaining in the third quarter. Manu Ginobili led the charge by scoring 11 points, including a trio of three-pointers in a two-minute span to open things up for the Spurs. However, six points would be the largest advantage for San Antonio in the second half, as the Thunder closed the third quarter with a 20-5 run to reclaim a comfortable nine-point cushion heading to the fourth period.
The keys for OKC's third quarter rally were its two young stars, as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for 17 points in the final six minutes. The Thunder held on to a double-digit lead for most of the fourth quarter until the Spurs made it interesting in the final minutes. San Antonio had a shot to tie the game late, but Ginobili's three-point attempt came up short, along with the Spurs' comeback.
Looking ahead to tonight, Oklahoma City returns home with a shot to return to the NBA Finals for the first time since the Seattle days in 1996. The Thunder is the only team this postseason that has not lost at home, owning a 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at Chesapeake Energy Arena. OKC is riding a three-game ATS hot streak at home after starting 1-3 ATS in the playoffs, while hitting the 'over' five of seven times at home.
San Antonio has quickly turned into a 'fade' machine after going on an incredible 17-3 ATS during its 20-game winning streak, as the Spurs have failed to cash in three straight contests. Gregg Popovich's club is 1-3 SU/ATS the last four times when facing elimination dating back to 2009, while the lone victory came in Game 5 of the opening round in overtime against Memphis last season.
VegasInsider.com's Chris David weighs in on tonight's contest, "I'm not surprised Oklahoma City has won three straight. This is a legit team that won the third-most games in this year's regular season. What's a little stunning is that OKC has been able to withstand every counter-punch from San Antonio and make shot after shot in big moments, especially on the road in Game 5."
"During the three wins by the Thunder, they've averaged 106 PPG, shot 50 percent from the field and they connected on 85% of their attempts from the free throw line, which is unheard of. Outside of the blowout in Game 3 which they conceded, San Antonio has played a solid series. Unfortunately for the Spurs, OKC has been better, especially when it comes to closing," David notes.
The Thunder looks to keep up their home dominance, as David analyzes the Game 6 line movement, "The betting public is already backing OKC with the line jumping from the opener of 3½ to 5 and it's certainly tough to fade a team that is 7-0 at home in the playoffs. However, four of those wins came by six points or less, so don't start lighting the cigars and asking to see the wine list after the first quarter."
From an advantage standpoint, David says to be creative if the Spurs are your choice tonight, "If you believe San Antonio can force a Game 7, then the smarter play would be taking the Spurs on the adjusted series price, which is listed around 3/1 odds at a few offshore shops. It's better than the 2/1 money-line odds on Game 6 and if the Spurs win Wednesday, then you can buy back with Oklahoma City with the points for Game 7 and possibly hit both ends!"
What's interesting throughout this entire series is the consistent scoring in each half, broken down by David, "If you've followed this series and play totals routinely, then you should be well aware that the 'under' now stands at 5-0 in the first-half of this series and the 'over' has rallied to a 4-1 mark in the second-half. You know you're going to get a ton of 3-pointers taken, it's just a matter if they fall or not."
The Thunder is set at 4½-point favorites, while the total is listed at 202 tonight. The game tips off at 9:00 PM EST and can be seen nationally on TNT.