NBA Betting News and Notes Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

NBA Knowledge

Minnesota lost its last five games; they’re 2-9 vs spread in last 11 road games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Houston is 3-5 in its last eight games (0-8 vs spread); they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six home tilts. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Rockets won nine of last ten games with Minnesota, but Wolves covered six of last seven. Nine of last ten series games went over the total.

Dallas lost its last five games (0-4-1 vs spread); they’re 1-3-1 vs spread in last five road games. Four of their last five games went over total. Memphis lost four of last five games; they’re 7-10 vs spread in last 17 home games. Under is 8-3 in their last eleven games. Dallas won/covered four of last six games with Memphis; teams split last four games played here. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Denver won four of its last six games; they covered last three road games- their last four games all stayed under the total. Thunder won four of last five games; six of their last seven games stayed under. Oklahoma City won its last nine games with Denver (7-2 vs spread); Nuggets lost last four visits here (1-3 vs spread), had hearts torn out Sunday when Westbrook’s buzzer-beater KO’d Denver from playoff race, 106-105. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Cleveland is 0-7 this season when Lebron sits out, which he is tonite. Toronto is 11-2 in its last 13 games, 5-1 vs spread in its last six road games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Cavaliers lost last three games, last two in OT; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Cavs won their last five games (4-1 vs spread) with Toronto this season; three of last four went over total. Raptors lost three of last four visits to Ohio (1-3 vs spread).

Atlanta won its last three games, covered five of last six; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last six road games. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Pacers won last four games, covered last five; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten home games. Hawks won/covered three of last four games with Indiana, but Pacers need this win to make the playoffs. Teams split last four series games played here; last four series games stayed under the total.

Bucks are 8-4 in their last 12 games, 5-2 vs spread in last seven on road- their last four games stayed under the total. Boston won six of last nine games; they’re 3-6 vs spread in last six road games. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games overall. Celtics won five of last seven games with Milwaukee; six of last eight series games went over total. Teams split last four series games in Beantown.

Pistons are 3-8 in their last 11 games but covered last three road tilts. Under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Magic lost seven of last eight games; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven games at home. Over is 8-3 in their last eleven games. Orlando won last two games with Detroit, after losing previous seven; last three series games stayed under. Pistons won three of last four visits to the Magic Kingdom.

76ers lost their last seven games (1-6 vs spread); they’re 12-4 vs spread in last 16 home games. Four of their last six games went over total. Knicks lost four of last five games, are 604 vs spread in last ten home games. Under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Home side won seven of last nine Philly-New York games; 76ers lost last four games played here, but covered last two. Last three series games stayed under the total.

Miami won/covered its last four games with Washington; Heat needs win here and help to make playoffs. Wizards lost by 20-11 points in last two games here. Washington won three of last four games, is 1-4 vs spread in last five road games- their last three games stayed under total. Miami won three of last four games, is 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight road games. Under is 7-4 in their last eleven games. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Bulls need win to clinch playoff spot; they won five of last six home games. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Nets won four of last six games, covered four of last five on road; supposedly they’re resting six guys tonite, not sure what they’re resting from. Under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Chicago won seven of last ten games with Brooklyn; last three series games stayed under total. Teams split last four series games in Windy City.

San Antonio lost three of last four games; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road games. Under is 9-3 in their last dozen games. Jazz won six of last eight games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight home games. Under is 5-2 in last seven Utah games. Spurs won six of last seven games with Utah (5-2 vs spread); they won last three visits here, by 18-2-14 points. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

New Orleans lost five of its last six road games (1-5 vs spread); they lost last four games overall (0-4 vs spread). Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Portland won/covered its last eight home games; they’re 10-1 vs spread in last 11 games. Three of their last four stayed under the total. Home side won seven of last eight New Orleans-Portland games; Pelicans lost last five visits to Oregon (0-5 vs spread). Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Warriors won 14 of their last 15 games; they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine home games. Four of their last five games went over total. Lakers won their last four games, covered their last five; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight games away from Staples. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Golden State won six of last eight games with the Lakers, covered five of last seven; LA lost last four visits to Oakland (1-3 vs spread). Six of last seven series games stayed under.

Sacramento is 5-4 in its last nine games, 3-2 vs spread in last five road games. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Clippers won their last six games, are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight home games. Three of their last four games stayed under the total. Road team won seven of last eight Sacramento-Clipper games; Kings won last two series games here by 1-7 points. Seven of last ten series games went over.

Armadillosports.com

Wednesday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Game of the Night - Eastern Conference Clashes

By beating the Hornets on Tuesday in a game that was never in doubt, the Hawks sapped a lot of the drama out of tonight's festivities. Atlanta will be the No. 5 seed, which means they're likely to rest regulars on the second night of a back-to-back in Indiana.

The problem with that is Chicago and Miami would both really appreciate a Pacers loss. In a three-way tie breaker, between those teams, Indiana would be eliminated. The Bulls could be the No. 7 seed if they end up even with the Pacers, while the Heat need either of those teams to lose and a home victory over Washington to get in at 41-41.

Paul Millsap has played only four games since missing eight with a knee injury that nearly sabotaged the team's season, helping the Hawks to a 3-1 record. He sat on the second night of the only back-to-back since his return and figures to be inactive. Center Dwight Howard and point guard Dennis Schroder sat that night too, so it wouldn't be suprising to see Mike Budenholzer give his three most important players the night off. Kent Bazemore has been dealing with a knee bone bruise, so sitting him would be worth looking at too. Thabo Sefolosha just returned from an eight-game absence due to a groin strain against Charlotte and is hoping to play to work out the rust, so he could be in the mix. Still, it's likely that the Pacers will have a backup-filled opponent to vanquish as they look to end the regular season with their fifth straight win, earning them the No. 7 seed.

That would likely set up a Paul George-LeBron James matchup we haven't seen since the 2014 Eastern Conference finals that wrapped up in Miami. Cleveland, barring a LeBron-less win over Toronto and a Celtics loss to a Bucks team that plans to rest All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, will be the No. 2 seed. It still hasn't been determined whether Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love will play since they've had knee issues over the last few issues, but James is citing a calf strain as the reason for his absence and preparing for the postseason. Tristan Thompson has missed four consecutive games due to a thumb sprain that ended his Ironman streak at 447 games, but he's been cleared to return and will play to build up a little rhythm before the weekend.

It remains to be seen whether Toronto will go all out effort-wise, having already set a franchise record for victories with 50. The plan is to dress everyone and get a win in Game No. 82 as they look to sustain a rhythm, but the game won't change anything from a seeding standpoint. Although beating the Cavs would help avoid a season sweep and tie them for the second-best record in the East, the Raptors would lose the tie-breaker since they've dropped the first three games in the series.

Although beating the visiting Raps without James is certainly possible, Cleveland also needs Milwaukee to pull off a short-handed upset over the Celtics in order to climb into the No. 1 spot. In addition to grounding the Greek Freak, the Bucks also excused Khris Middleton, Matthew Dellavedova and Tony Snell from flying into Boston. They'll all be in action at Toronto this weekend in the 3-6 pairing.

Stranger things have happened, but the Celtics are looking to improve to 30-11 at home, don't plan on resting anyone and value the top seed since they know they can use any edge they can get against a Cavs team that won three of four during the regular season.

Boston's likely first-round opponent looks to be Chicago, which only needs to defeat Brooklyn at home to guarantee itself a playoff berth after missing out last year for the first time in eight seasons. A Bulls win would also help avoid the first sub-.500 season since 2007-08 and everyone but point guard Rajon Rondo (wrist) is expected to play.

Brooklyn has made itself no friends in South Florida by announcing that it will sit six players in the season finale, including veterans Brook Lopez, Jeremy Lin, Trevor Booker and Quincy Acy. The Nets, one of the two largest underdogs (+15) on the regular season's final day, will ride young guards Spencer Dinwiddie, Isaiah Whitehead and Archie Goodwin in addition to forwards Caris LeVert, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, K.J. McDaniels, Andrew Nicholson and Justin Hamilton. Dinwiddie, LeVert and Hollis-Jefferson combined for 54 points, 20 boards and eight assists in Saturday's 107-106 upset of the Bulls, shooting 18-for-28. It remains to be seen whether they can come close to duplicating those numbers without Lopez and Lin to command attention.

Miami will face a Wizards team that it beat in D.C. this weekend to help extend its season. Hassan Whiteside scored 30 points in the 106-103 win and has been on a tear, but Washington may opt not to rest players despite being locked into the No. 4 seed. Starters John Wall (quad) and Otto Porter (back) have already missed time and may want to get back in a rhythm, while Bradley Beal expressed an interest in playing because winning 50 games for the first time since 1979, having already become the winningest Wizards team since they stopped being the Bullets 20 years ago.

Nothing has come easy for the overachieving Heat all season, so writing them off would be a mistake given the obstacles they've already overcome. Miami can avoid its second losing season in the three years since James left town by improbably finishing at .500 following an 11-30 start. Unfortunately, the Heat have put themselves in position where they need help that isn't likely to come. Boston swept them 4-0 in the regular-season series, but the games were all competitive.

Season Win Totals Decided

The Celtics could make their fans and backers awfully happy by securing the No. 1 seed with a win over the Bucks since it would help them eclipse their projected season win total of 52.5. Those who faded can't be happy that the Bucks left so much talent behind in Milwaukee.

The Raptors won 50 games for the first time in their history, but still need one more to cash for their backers. It's good news for over-backers that head coach Dwane Casey is dressing everyone and the Cavs aren't, but winning in Cleveland is never easy. A victory at the Q would wrap up the NBA's second-best home record behind Golden State. A Toronto win would tie Boston for the East's top road mark.

Speaking of the Warriors, they'll be looking to cash tickets for believers who waited for the initial number following the Kevin Durant signing to come down from 68.5 to the number it settled at, 66.5. Golden State needs one more win to get to 67-15 and are expected to play Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson together for the first time since Feb. 28. Draymond Green and Andre Iguoldala will rest and there's no guarantee that Steve Kerr will play starters more than token minutes, but there should still be enough firepower in place to help end the Lakers' improbable five-game winning streak that they haven't really wanted any part of since it may cost them a lottery pick. L.A. chased its over with a rout over the Pelicans last night despite Metta World Peace leading the team with 18 points on 17 shots.

The Grizzlies are also favored to eclipse their projected win total with Dallas in town. The Mavericks lost at home to Denver on Tuesday and won't play Dirk Nowitzki or J.J. Barea after both started yesterday. Harrison Barnes and Wes Matthews rested in the loss, so they could be available here. Memphis may not rest players but has already begun preparations for its upcoming with the series with the Spurs, making a win no sure thing. The Griz have lost eight of 11, so not coming up with a win to notch the over would be a rough beat for backers.

Two more teams will either equal their expected win totals or come up one short. Atlanta would need to pull off its short-handed upset in Indianapolis to reach the 44-win mark that was expected of it.

Sacramento routed Phoenix on Tuesday to put itself in position to equal the 33 wins oddsmakers forecasted, avoiding 50 losses for the fouth straight season and seventh time in eight years. The only year they didn't lose 50 came in the strike-shortened '11-'12 season, so the Kings have already won more games than they've managed since going 38-44 in '08. Unfortunately, they're Wednesday's largest underdog, getting 16 at the Clippers. L.A. needs the game to guarantee its 4-5 series against the Jazz starts at Staples Center instead of Salt Lake City.

Utah needs to beat a full-strength Spurs squad and then have Sacramento upset the Clips in order to claim the No. 4 seed. Despite the long odds, the Jazz are playing Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood and George Hill, who have all been in and out of the fold the last few weeks. That should make their matchup with San Antonio perhaps the night's most watchable since a dress rehearsal feel could yield quality play.

Injury/Rest Concerns

We touched on this topics in the matchups above, but there are still a few more situations worth addressing.

There won't be many games like the Spurs-Jazz that will feature both teams playing their best guys, but Timberwolves-Rockets may be one of them. James Harden will make one last argument in his case for MVP and will be joined by anti-rest advocate Patrick Beverley (shoulder) in the backcourt. Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Nene have all been in and out of the mix down the stretch but look to be available as Mike D'Antoni seeks rhythm entering the Thunder series. Minnesota lost to OKC on Tuesday night but are unlikely to pull back for the finale. Tom Thibodeau is true to his nature.

Russell Westbrook isn't a lock to play for OKC against Denver, so check prior to tip-off for a determination. Doug McDermott (knee) sat against the Wolves and is unlikely to play, while Taj Gibson and Andre Roberson joined Westbrook in resting and may take another night off to ensure they're fresh. The Nuggets rolled in Dallas despite shelving Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried, Will Barton and Jameer Nelson the rest of the way. Emmanuel Mudiay (ankle) may return tonight, but Michael Malone may just disperse minutes evenly as he did last night. Denver could earn a 40th win in a season for the first time since '13.

The Knicks won't have Carmelo Anthony or Kristaps Porzingis in the final home game of the season, which is why the 76ers have been installed as a road favorite at the Garden. Yes, the Phil Jackson era is going swell.

Anthony Davis (knee) and DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles) sat out Tuesday's loss against the Lakers and aren't likely to participate in the finale against the Blazers. E'Twaun Moore also sat with an ankle issue, so the same team that head coach Alvin Gentry chastised for lacking concentration may be out there together again. Veteran Jrue Holiday might escape playing a back-to-back, but the Pels will want to look for more production from Cheikh Diallo, who delivered 19 points and 11 rebounds at L.A. Damian Lillard has already announced his intention to play, and while you shouldn't expect Terry Stotts to play his starters normal minutes, it looks like Portland will have most of its guys out there against New Orleans.

Wizards, Heat meet in Miami
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com

The Heat need a win and some help if they want to sneak into the playoffs.

On the final night of the NBA season, the 40-41 Miami Heat (49-32 ATS) will look to somehow finish .500 on the 2016-17 campaign despite having started the year at 11-30. Even more astounding is the fact that they’ll have a chance to make the playoffs, provided they win and either the Bulls lose to Brooklyn or the Pacers lose to Atlanta. Miami has won three of its last four to get to this point, most recently having made a fourth quarter comeback to take down Cleveland 124-121 at home on Monday (CLE +10.5) to keep their postseason dream alive. Their opponent on Wednesday is the Washington Wizards, who are locked into the East’s No. 4 seed at 49-32 (41-39-1 ATS). The Wizards sat PG John Wall and SF Otto Porter Jr. in the team’s 105-101 victory at Detroit on Monday night (WAS +5.5), and one has to think they’ll be resting players against the Heat, as well. That said, while teams like the Cavaliers and Bucks have already announced the players they will be resting on Wednesday night, there has been no news out of Washington as of Wednesday morning. Over the last five seasons, road teams that have allowed 100 points in four straight games (WAS) are 73-38 ATS against opponents coming off a win of six points or fewer. In the same timeframe, games involving a team revenging two straight losses in which their opponent scored at least 100 points (Miami has actually beat Washington all three times the teams have played this season and scored 100+ in each of them) and coming off a win as an underdog are 159-94 Under against the total. Miami has three players listed as doubtful for Wednesday night: SG Dion Waiters, PF Josh McRoberts and SF Luke Babbitt.

Without Wall (23.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 10.7 APG, 2.0 SPG) and Porter (13.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.5 SPG) in the lineup on Monday, the Wizards started PG Brandon Jennings (3.6 PPG, 4.7 APG in 22 games with Washington) and SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (6.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG) in their places. One might expect the brash Jennings to look to take charge given the opportunity, but he only scored two points on six shots in 28 minutes. He didn’t play poorly, though, posting five steals, six assists and zero turnovers. Oubre also shot poorly, scoring 10 points on 2-of-10 shooting in a game-high 37 minutes. SG Bradley Beal (23.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.1 SPG) didn’t disappoint and, impressively, was incredibly efficient even without Wall on the floor. He scored 33 points on 13-of-20 shooting. He ended up playing 33 minutes after being brought back in late in a close game, so he would seem to be a prime candidate to rest on Wednesday. PF Markieff Morris (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG) was the team’s second-leading scorer, putting up 20 points and eight rebounds on 9-of-16 shooting. C Marcin Gortat (10.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG) rounded out the starting lineup and put up a line of eight points, eight rebounds and five assists in only 21 minutes. PF Jason Smith (5.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG), C Ian Mahinmi (5.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG), SG Tomas Satoransky (2.7 PPG) all played 20+ minutes off the bench, exceeding their season averages, while SG Bojan Bogdanovic (12.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG in 25 games with Washington) played 18. (His average with the Wizards is 23.2 MPG).

Waiters (15.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.3 APG) sprained his ankle on March 17, and the Heat have been without him since. He is aiming to return for the playoffs. His improved play was a huge part of the team’s second-half resurgence, and they are only 7-6 in his recent absence. The player who has increased his scoring output the most in that stretch is PF James Johnson (12.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.1 BPG), who is averaging 16.1 PPG in his last 14 games. He has come out of nowhere this season to be a versatile, productive player, and he stands out as an obvious x-factor if the Heat are able to make the playoffs. The same goes for SG Tyler Johnson (13.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.2 SPG), who has lived up to the somewhat speculative contract he signed in the offseason. He had 24 points on 7-of-12 shooting against the Cavs. C Hassan Whiteside (16.9 PPG, 14.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG) also stepped up in that one, posting 23 points and 18 rebounds. (Admittedly, Cleveland’s starting center on Monday was the physically overmatched Channing Frye.) If Gortat gets significant minutes on Wednesday, we’ll see a matchup of two of the better centers in the Eastern Conference, with Whiteside arguably being the best. PG Goran Dragic (20.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.2 SPG) is Miami’s leader in scoring and assists, and his role on the perimeter takes on increased importance with Waiters out. So does that of SG Josh Richardson (10.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG), who had 19 against Cleveland and played clutch basketball down the stretch. SG Rodney McGruder (6.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) has started 64 games for Miami this year, and you still may not have heard of him.