NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, April 26th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Home side won eight of last nine Wizard-Hawk games, including all four in this series (favorites 4-0 vs spread); Wizards won Games 1-2 here, by 7-8 points; they were +7 in turnovers in both of those games, then were -4/-2 in turnovers in pair of losses in Atlanta. Hawks have 134-93 edge in FT’s tried in this series. Atlanta lost its last five games in this building (1-4 vs spread), losing by 11-3-4-7-8 points (under 4-1). Hawks lost four of last five games overall (1-4 vs spread). Wizards won/covered three of their last four home games.
Road team won all four Chicago-Boston games; Rondo is expected to try and play in this game with a broken thumb. Bulls shot 39.3%/42.1% in losing couple home games without Rondo; they were 11-45 on arc in those games, after being 18-50 in Games 1-2. Six of last eight series games stayed under total. Chicago won/covered four of its last six road tilts; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Celtics have taken 30+ 3’s in all four series games; they’re 51-140 on arc in series. Boston is now 4-10 in playoffs under Stevens.
Armadillosports.com
NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
The Chicago Bulls looked like they had the jump on the Boston Celtics, but when Rajon Rondo broke his thumb, everything changed. The Celtics are coming back to the Garden tied 2-2 after a pair of easy wins in Chicago. Game 5 is Wednesday night on TNT.
It might be up to fourth-string point guard Isaiah Cannan to save Chicago’s bacon. With Rondo injured and both Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams proving ineffective, Cannan played 34 minutes in Game 4 on Sunday and finished at plus-11, making him the only Bulls player in positive territory.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Wednesday night’s NBA slate features a pair of crucial Game 5’s in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. The matchups took different paths to 2-2 series ties, however. Washington won twice at home over Atlanta, only to see the Hawks pull the same trick at Philips Arena.
On the flip side, Chicago went into Boston and won twice over the top seed in the East on the road. But when Rajon Rondo fractured his thumb and missed Games 3 and 4 at home, the Bulls went down to the Celtics twice.
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards
Gamblers should take note of this super-early start at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
Atlanta (45-41 straight up, 41-45 against the spread) evened this best-of-seven series Monday night by capturing a 111-101 win as a 2..5-point home favorite. The 212 combined points resulted in a push for bettors. Seven Hawks scored in double figures led by Paul Millsap, who produced 19 points, nine rebounds, seven assists and two steals. Despite drawing a third foul late in the first quarter that sent him to the bench for the rest of the first half, Dennis Schroder scored all 18 of his points in the second half. Dwight Howard had his best game of the series, contributing 16 points and 15 rebounds. Kent Bazemore also enjoyed his best game of the series, finishing with 16 points, four rebounds, three steals and seven assists compared to only one turnover in merely 23-plus minutes of playing time.
When Schroder, the fourth-year guard who averaged 25 points, eight assists and just two turnover per game in the first three games of this series, picked up his third foul, veteran Jose Calderon was inserted into the lineup. Calderon, who many felt was destined for the Golden St. roster until Kevin Durant was injured, was acquired by Atlanta off the waiver wire late in the regular season. He entered the game with maximum intensity and his play, along with that of Bazemore and Howard, was instrumental in the Hawks turning a nine-point deficit early in the second quarter into a nine-point halftime advantage. Calderon finished with 10 points, two boards and five assists compared to only one turnover. He also had an incredible +29 plus-minus ratio (+22 in the second quarter).
Atlanta head coach Mike Budenholzer made an interesting move to start these playoffs, inserting rookie forward and first-round draft choice Taurean Prince into the starting lineup ahead of Bazemore, who inked a $70 million contract during this past offseason. Prince has responded by scoring in double figures in all four games of the series. The Baylor product had 11 points and seven rebounds in Game 3, hitting 5-of-7 shots from the field. Tim Hardaway Jr. drained 3-of-5 launches from downtown Monday night in a 15-point effort.
Atlanta owns a 20-23 SU record and a 22-21 ATS mark on the road this year.
Washington (51-35 SU, 44-41-1 ATS) is getting stellar play from its star backcourt, but the Wizards aren’t getting much production elsewhere. Beal dropped 32 points on the Hawks in Game 3 and is averaging 24.3 points per game. However, he’s hit only 11-of-41 of his 3-balls (26.8%). John Wall had 22 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and two steals in Game 3, but he coughed up six turnovers and made only 7-of-19 FGAs. For the series, Wall is averaging 28.8 PPG while shooting 50.7 percent, 58.3 percent and 82.1 percent from the field, 3-point land and the free-throw line, respectively. Wall is also averaging 10.0 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game.
Otto Porter Jr. and Bojan Bogdanovic scored 13 points apiece in Game 3, but Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris were dominated in the paint. Gortat finished with two points, 18 rebounds, three assists and three blocked shots. Morris went 3-of-10 from the field for nine points and four rebounds. After averaging 14.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game during the regular season, Morris has disappeared since scoring 21 points and pulling down seven rebounds and blocking four shots in the series opener. Since then, the Kansas product has averaged only 7.0 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. He’s also motivated Millsap by calling him a “crybaby,” only to then get dominated by the perennial All-Star, who told him to “take his loss back to the hotel” after Game 3.
VegasInsider.com’s Chris David is leaning to the Wizards in Game 5: “It’s hard to make an argument against the Wizards in Game 5 based on the perfect results from the home team in this series and especially what Washington has done at the Verizon Center this season. After starting the season 5-6 on their homecourt, the Wizards have gone 27-5 since then and they’ve been a great investment for bettors with a 21-11 record against the spread over this span.”
David continued, “Atlanta didn’t play horribly in the first two games from D.C. but it also failed to cover and that’s been a common theme for this squad. As road ‘dogs this season, the Hawks went 11-15 SU and they only managed to earn covers (15-11 ATS) in four of those 15 setbacks.”
As of late Tuesday afternoon, most betting shops had Washington installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 213. The Hawks can be had to win outright for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200).
The ‘over’ is 2-1-1 in this series to date, but the ‘under’ went 3-1 in the four regular-season encounters between these clubs. Since Game 1 went ‘over’ the 209.5-point total, the last three tallies have closed at 212, 211.5 and 212.
The ‘under’ is 49-34-3 overall for Atlanta, 26-15-2 in its road assignments.
The ‘over’ is 53-32-1 overall for the Wizards, 26-17 in their home contests.
Sportsbook.ag has the updated series price as Washington -210, Atlanta +177.
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
As of late Tuesday afternoon, most books had Boston (55-31 SU, 42-42-2 ATS) listed as an eight-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 202. The Bulls were +300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300).
Brad Stevens’s squad pulled even in this series at 2-2 thanks to Sunday’s 104-95 win at Chicago as a two-point road favorite. The 199 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 204-point total. All-Star guard Isaiah Thomas scored 33 points, dished out seven assists and pulled down seven rebounds. Gerald Green, who was inserted into the starting lineup ahead of Amir Johnson in Games 3 and 4, had 18 points and seven boards. Al Horford contributed 15 points, 12 rebounds, one block, one steal and four assists compared to merely one turnover. Jae Crowder and Kelly Olynyk were also in double figures with 11 and 10 points, respectively.
In the Game 4 losing effort, Jimmy Butler kept his squad in the game while scoring 33 points and handing out nine assists compared to only one turnover. Isaiah Canaan and Nikola Mirotic scored 13 points apiece, while Dwyane Wade finished with 11 points, six boards and two blocks. Bobby Portis had eight points and eight rebounds from off of the bench.
Boston lost Games 1 and 2 at home by scores of 106-102 and 111-97, only to get great news going into Game 3 in The Windy City. Rondo, Chicago’s starting point guard, was going to have his broken thumb in a cast for the next 7-10 days. Rondo had tallied 11 points, 14 assists, nine rebounds and five steals in Game 2. In Game 1, he finished with 12 points, eight boards, two steals, one block and six assists compared to just one turnover. Without Rondo, the Celtics won a 104-87 decision in Game 3 as 2.5-point ‘chalk.’ Horford was the catalyst with 18 points, eight rebounds, six assists, four steals and one block.
Boson has posted a 30-13 SU record and a 17-26 ATS mark at home this season.
Chicago (43-43 SU, 44-42 ATS) is 18-25 SU and 23-20 ATS in its road assignments.
The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the eight head-to-head meetings between Chicago and Boston this season.
The ‘under’ is 51-34-1 overall for the Bulls, 24-18-1 in their road contests.
Sportsbook.ag has the updated series price as Boston -480, Chicago +380 (risk $100 to win $380).
Totals have been an overall wash for Boston (41-41-4), but the ‘over’ is 23-18-2 in its home outings.
Despite Boston’s success in Game 3 and 4, VI’s David warns gamblers about laying big numbers with the Celtics. David said, “While the Celtics should clearly be favored over the Rondo-less Bulls in Game 5, I would be very hesitant to back Boston as a home favorite. The club looked great in Chicago but this line is clearly inflated based on those results. Bettors should note that Boston is just 1-9 versus the number in its last 10 games as a home favorite and it owned the worst ATS record at home amongst the 16 teams in this year’s postseason.”
David continued, “As inconsistent as the Bulls were this season, they did finish the year with a winning road record (21-20). Plus, they’ve covered seven straight as visitors and that includes the first two victories in this series at TD Garden. Total bettors should note that the ‘over’ has connected in all seven of those games and for whatever reason, Chicago’s offense has lit it up for 112.1 PPG during this stretch."
Wednesday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards (-5.5, 212.5)
ABOUT THE HAWKS (45-41 SU, 41-45 ATS, 34-49-3 O/U): Washington controlled the first two games at home but it was a different story in Atlanta, with the Hawks emerging as the more aggressive team and rolling to a pair of wins by an average of 14 points. Atlanta's strength on the interior in Game 4 came from center Dwight Howard, who failed to score more than seven points in any of the first three games before exploding for 16 points and 15 rebounds in Game 4. "Obviously, it was his best game," Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters of Howard. "We needed that extra boost. He certainly brought it. I thought is defense, his activity on the boards, his second- and third-efforts getting rebounds. We need more of that every night, every possession. When he’s like that, I think it can help carry his teammates and move us forward." Howard was one of seven Atlanta players to score in double figures in Game 4.
ABOUT THE WIZARDS (51-35 SU, 44-41-1 ATS, 53-32-1 O/U): The Wizards will try to hang onto homecourt advantage and take the series lead when they host the Hawks in Game 5 on Wednesday. The Wizards are searching for answers after getting beaten on the interior and relying too heavily on guards John Wall and Bradley Beal for offense. Washington was outscored in the paint by a combined 104-64 in Games 3 and 4, and interior defense will be a focus moving forward. "They got too many layups, too many easy points around the paint," Brooks told reporters after Game 4. "Howard did, definitely ... hopefully we can counter that with some good positioning so he doesn’t get the lobs and the easy points around the paint. And if so we can wrap him up, put him on the free-throw line. But other than that, we have to keep them out of the paint as much as we can." Wizards center Marcin Gortat grabbed 18 rebounds in Game 4 but managed just two points.
LINE HISTORY: The Wizards opened as 5.5-point home favorites and as of Tuesday night that point spread hasn't budged. The total opened at 212 and jumped slightly to 212.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Hawks - No injuries to report.
Wizards - C I. Mahinmi (Out Indefinitely, calf).
TRENDS:
* Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Hawks last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Over is 8-2 in Wizards last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-8, 202)
ABOUT THE BULLS (43-43 SU, 44-42-0 ATS, 34-51-1 O/U): After shooting 46.7 percent and averaging 25 assists in two wins at Boston, Chicago dipped to 40.1 percent with 16.5 assists in the two games without Rondo at home. While the team waits on a possible Rondo return, Isaiah Canaan will be thrust into the starting lineup for Game 5 after emerging to score 13 points in 34 minutes of Sunday's loss. "It really tests your mental part of basketball," Canaan told reporters when asked about being inactive for the first three games and watching many regular-season games from the sideline. "Our job is to play, whenever it may be. It may be the first 10 games of the season. It may be the last 10 games. Everybody on this team wants to play, and you can only have five out there. So whenever your name is called, you've got to be ready to go, no matter when it is." Jimmy Butler scored a team-high 33 points with nine assists and one turnover in Game 4, attempting 23 free throws one game after failing to get to the line.
ABOUT THE CELTICS (55-31 SU, 42-42-2 ATS, 41-41-4 O/U): All-Star guard Isaiah Thomas, whose playoff experience has been dominated by the grief of losing his sister in a car accident prior to the series, had his best game of the set with 33 points in a 104-95 win in a Game 4 equalizer on Sunday. Coach Brad Stevens' decision to go small - including the insertion of Gerald Green into the starting lineup - has transformed the series. Green scored 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting to go along with seven rebounds in Game 4 while regular starter Amir Johnson did not see a single minute of action. Aside from Green, the Celtics were 6-for-28 from long range and Thomas has made just 4-of-21 over his last three games, although he carved up the Bulls with dribble penetration and a string of tough layups in Game 4.
LINE HISTORY: The Celtics hit the betting board as 7.5-point home favorites for this crucial Game 5 and by Tuesday evening that number was bet up to -8. The total opened at 202 and has yet to move.
INJURY REPORT:
Bulls - PG R. Rondo (Questionable, thumb).
Celtics - SF J. Brown (Questionable, illness).
TRENDS:
* Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
* Over is 7-0 in Bulls last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.